Philly Fed Beats Even As Core Components Deteriorate

Tyler Durden's picture

The ridiculous economic data continues. Those looking at the headline Philly Fed, which jumped from -1.9 to 5.7, trouncing expectations of 1.0, such as the NY Fed's Simon Potter are pushing buy buttons left and right. And yet anyone who takes the 2 minutes to look at the internals, such as the collapse in the Number of Employees Sub-Index, which tumbled from -7.3 to -10.7 (the lowest since September 2009), the decline in the Average Employee Workweek, or the surge in Prices Paid from 8 to 19, double the change in Prices Received which means plunging corporate profits, or the ever critical New Orders which declined from 1.0 to -0.6, and one can see why this is a report only an Econ Ph.D-cum-Central Planner can love. Finally adding insult to injury, is the 6 month forecast, which unlike all other regional Fed diffusion indices, collapsed by half, from 41.2 to 21.6, as the Hopium at least in the city of brotherly mugging appears to be running out. Stocks kneejerk in every possible direction hoping the Fed will provide a direction.

To summarize from the report:

Price Indexes Increase Slightly


More firms reported paying higher prices for inputs, and the prices received for manufactured goods rose modestly this month. The prices paid index increased from 8 last month to 19 in October, with 30 percent of the firms reporting input price increases. With respect to their own manufactured goods, the percentage reporting an increase in prices (19 percent) was greater than the percentage reporting a decrease (14 percent). The prices received index rose to 5.4 from ]0.2.




The October Business Outlook Survey suggests that activity among the region’s manufacturing sector has steadied, following several months of reported declines. However, firms reported flat new orders and shipments and declines in employment. Prices for firms’ manufactured goods were moderately higher this month, while increases in input prices were more widespread. The future activity index decreased this month but remained positive, and firms are still generally optimistic regarding growth over the next six months.

Full table:

And chart:

And Philly Fed vs NFP:

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LawsofPhysics's picture

"Beating" expectations, all..  the... way... down...


DeadFred's picture

If the core components are down that's bullish because it means the Fed will print... oh, wait.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Correct, printing is all we got now.  The real question with respect to trading is, will this finally give us that inflation that the Fed is so desparately trying to get.  They want inflation, in a big way, it's the only way to make the cronies/operational arm of the Fed appear solvent.

viahj's picture

they only want bank owned asset inflation otherwise they'd be sending the unwashed masses checks.

LongSoupLine's picture

aaannnd...indexes going green.  un-fucking-real.

ziggy59's picture

As in algo promoting BS headlines and in FIAT.. He who prints first, prints best!

adr's picture

So how did this survey end up higher by 5 points?

Or is the beat all in the higher costs to manufacturers and the higher prices paid for wholesale goods?

Higher prices are good for everyone, right Ben?

youngman's picture

"So how did this survey end up higher by 5 points?"

POLITICS...that is how....

ultraticum's picture


The banner ads in the upper left of your site slamming Joe Walsh, the only Illinois congressman who is so principled the Republican party doesn't even support him, are getting a little annoying.  Is there any way to filter out those and the ads for Barack I'llBomya, please? 

Just saying . . . .

NidStyles's picture

The ad's are based on your browsing habits. Change your browsing habits. 


The alternative is to run an Ad-Blocker.

Orly's picture

Everyone sees differrent ads, as they are titrated to your viewing habits by the adservers.  Thought you'd like to know.  Makes us wonder what you're looking at...


Real Estate Geek's picture

Hee hee, at least he didn't complain about all of the ads for gay porn. 

"Not that there's anything wrong with that."


ultraticum's picture

OK - should've know the ad server was smart enough to know where I reside.  Thanks.

DeadFred's picture

Enjoy the Obama ads. Total waste of the TOTUS's funds to run an ad on ZH and it gives Tyler a few bucks.

viahj's picture

but, Obama is just stimulating the economy!!!  /s

fonzannoon's picture

Time to shut down QE and start raising those interest rates. We don't want to overheat.

insanelysane's picture

Bloomberg: "Consumer Comfort in U.S. Climbs to Highest Level in Six Months"

Who are these consumers and what do they do for work???  Halloween crap is being removed from the shelves to make way for Christmas stuff 2 weeks before Halloween.

Someone might want to ask the Catholics to add a few more gift giving holidays to their calendar in order to save the US, Europe, and oddly enough those god-less commies in China.

lizzy36's picture

Ironic how many internal data points, in last week, are hitting lows not seen since 2009.

Those QE's seem to really have made a difference. Infinity going to be awesome.

Winston Churchill's picture

Philly cheesey stake.

Robslob's picture

Based on the COMPRESSION IN ALMOST ALL UNDERLYING DATA (not to be confused with headline data) you may finally realize WHY BERNANKE chose to unleash QE Infinity because paying for all this is going to be a BIG BIG number later.

Yet the election will be over and the status quo wins either way.

fonzannoon's picture

I am totally lost on what the election has to do with any of this, if in fact the status quo does win either way (which it will). Say it all falls apart today. Awful data, market collapse, even throw a currency crisis in there. Obama would be out and Mitt would be in. It's not like they would throw Gary Johnson or RP in there because everyone came to their senses. Ben would print his ass off and emergency tarp type shit would happen all over again. Even if it did not work. We would still have the same assholes steering the ship.

Winston Churchill's picture

Just some cover so a "legitimate Govt.'(oxymoron) can do their bidding, pretending its the people will.

DeadFred's picture

'They' are not a homogeneous group and have been infighting since their days at Andover. The current fight is for who gets to be head spokes-puppet for the group. It's a prestigious job and carries lots of golf privileges. That we are not part of 'Them' is a given but there is always jockeying for position within the group.

MFLTucson's picture


Philly Fed Beats Even As Core Components Deteriorate



Its 0k, this is not about telling the truth, its about fooling the sheep and trying to prop up the Chicago gang.  I cannot ever recall such deception in the history of America.

semperfi's picture

Don't worry, the sheep aren't even tuned-in. They'll never know.

semperfi's picture


Obama now leads Romney 57-42

Unemployment rate drops to 5.3%

Consumer Confidence jumps to 72.3

3rd Qtr GDP  3.9%

Inflation running at a paltry 0.7%


km4's picture

How Obama or Romney Should Have Answered the iPad Question

The correct answer is that, under current conditions, which are highly unlikely to change no matter who is president, the job of assembling iPhones and iPads and other consumer electronics is now done mostly in China by companies that specialize in manufacturing, and will never come back to the U.S. And that’s okay.

Sadly, both Obama and Romney flubbed their answers, and educated voters not at all.

blunderdog's picture

All I can say is: it's a good thing electronics don't have any importance for our national security.

Pairadimes's picture

The "Beating" of expectations will continue until morale is improved.

Brother Sebastian's picture

I hope the Philly Fed members celebrate their successful report by going to Camden for drinks.

ebworthen's picture

Skynet had fun with that one; huge jump in indices before humans could read the number, then back down within minutes.

Nanex might have some interesting charts on that by days end.

tahoebumsmith's picture

They are living in their own world. The rest of America is in a total death spiral. I watched two people go at it yesterday over an Obama 2012 sticker that one of the guys had on his bumper, it got pretty ugly. Not seeing a single campaign sign on anybody's lawn this time around either? I think most Americans are starting to feel the tension and realizing it doesn't matter who wins the election, we are doomed regardless...

Winston Churchill's picture

Same here in Florida.

Local and state politico billboards,no presidential ones to speak of.

Actually saw three contactors in HD this morning.This is supposed to be the busiest

month down here.

I'm sure all the Snow birds will vote up north ,and vote again down here .

Its a real issue thats not even mentioned by the way.

Kina's picture



Apple just got a digeridoo shoved up its arse.



Apple will also be obliged to publicise the fact the two designs are different – a ruling handed down in July – in newspapers, magazines, and on its website. The three appeal court judges upheld that ruling, saying its purpose was not to "punish [or] … make it grovel [but] to dispel commercial uncertainty." 

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

had a run in with a 30 something with a bumper sticker for Obuma..asked him what O had done to win his support?

ans: the stimulus..asked him what he did, now get this: college prof in economics!!  I started laughing he become very upset and said I had no right to question him in public about his support of the Obuma..Laughed some more..

he got angry and started yelling that I was out of line..Laughing continued.. this guy teaches the young economics ..

did not laugh at that.


SDRII's picture

Capex outlook first time negative since sept 2009. before that 2000. Bullish

crusty curmudgeon's picture

Just as we no longer see a balanced budget, I don't expect they'll bother reporting (lying about) these numbers much longer.

SheepDog-One's picture

Do you think the present state of total suspension of disbelief ends in another few weeks 'after election'? Since its all supposedly due to 'gotta make it all look good FOR elections' and all.