Reality Storms Back As Initial Claims Explode Higher By 46K From Last Week's Upward Revised Aberration

Tyler Durden's picture

So much for last week's aberration initial claims print of 339K (revised higher of course to 342K). With expectations of an increase to 365K, the DOL just came out with a whopper of a miss, the largest in three months, at 388K, an increase of 46K in one week, which was also the highest print in three months. Remember: this number will be revised to 391K next week. So much for single print indicative of a recovery. As the chart below shows, the rate of change was a 13.45% from last week: the highest in five years! So far, there has been no explanation from the BLS or DOL for last week's outlier print. And no, last week's print was not due to  California, which the DOL reported just decreased by 4,979 in the week ended Oct 6, not the required 49K. What is however worse, is that it is becoming increasingly clear that nobody at the DOL knows what is actually going on following a statement by the Labor Dept that "it appeared that state-level administrative issues were distorting the data", and numbers are simply picked out of thin air. Finally, in truly amusing news, those on Extended Benefits have once again started to rise, after dropping to virtually 0 following expiration of state benefits. 

For the California conspiracy theorists:

Initial Claims:

Rate of Change:

Finally, courtesy of John Lohman, here is how long we have now gone without one single downward adjustment in the claims number:

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Cassandra Syndrome's picture

So now they want Romney to win?

GetZeeGold's picture



His name is Rick MFing Santelli.


Be nice and he might let you kiss his ring Steve.


TruthInSunshine's picture

Steve LIESman & Barry Shitholz are claiming this number is a conspiracy.

Paul Krugman has tweeted to his Jamestown followers to not lose the Hope & to hold on to their Change.


*This was a give-a-way number thrown out by the BLS to try and throw hound dog claims of number rigging off their scent trail.

GetZeeGold's picture



Like the Energizer bunny.....that crazy bastard just keeps going and going.


TruthInSunshine's picture

The BLS has finally learned that there are people competent in basic arithmetic and sound statistical surveying/sampling methodologies who are on to their little game of consistently skewing the numbers artificially higher, and they've adopted a new, desperate strategy of throwing out an intentional "big miss" once in a while.

It's like when a referee really blows a call, gets booed, and subsequently grants a make-up call.

a growing concern's picture

They should really shake things up and try a downward revision next week.  That'll keep everyone guessing.

economics9698's picture

These fascist mother fuckers are really starting to bother me.  This shit is going to change soon.

pods's picture

Well you should be happy to know that the banks are now fat and happy and are ready to take back some real property.

They had the BALLS to send a letter that the US must get control of it's finances.  Of course they did that after they puked all their rotten MBSs to the FED and how have reserves enough to steal the real property from debtors.

Satan is making a new level in hell for these fuckers.


Things that go bump's picture

For all we know, this is all there is.  The meek do not inherit the earth.  Turning the other cheek gets that one slapped too.  Don't you recognize propaganda when it sucker punches you?

Pool Shark's picture



Sorry Tyler,

It looks like last week's missing state was California:

LawsofPhysics's picture

Liesman is such a piece of shit.  It isn't a conspiracy when the numbers are exceptionally good, just when the numbers are exceptionally bad.  Paging Rick Santelli...

GetZeeGold's picture



Paging Rick Santelli...


Oh shit.

economics9698's picture

Why in the fuck are we paying these bastards if all they do is propaganda?  Its fucking bullshit.

pods's picture

I think you are confused about their job description.


MachoMan's picture

Fuck that...  page wallstreet pro.  Santelli is on a short leash with cnbs and thus a compromised professional wrestler.

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

 spending 1 trillion a yr on entitlements up 33% in we can wait for next UE report after Amazon hires 50,000 for X reported on MSM today the UE trend is slowly getting better..Amazon do your thing part time low pay jobs for everyone merry Festivus all.

DeadFred's picture

The BLS is watching the polls swing towards even and know their jobs (or more) might be on the line if Willard gets coronated. Obama may have to up the incentive/pressure to make the risk worthwhile. Or maybe the BLS is smart enough to realize that two can play the incentive/pressure game. All sort of fun theories can be spun out of todays print.

More likely the put/call ratio got too low and the squid decided it was time to fleece the bulls. Who do you think really runs the BLS?

TruthInSunshine's picture

Lloyd & Jamie roll up to the BLS' "lockdown" office around 7:45 am, parking in "This Space Reserved For..." spots.

Inquiries of "what can be do with this subset that would be technically allowable?..." and "can we take a little off the top over here?..." soon fill the air as everyone enjoys their GS/JPM provided Patisserie Claude croissants & Piccolo Cafe lattes.


spekulatn's picture

The internet reformation strikes again.

"We call the process the Internet Reformation and we're creating a society to formalize support for a free and open Internet among other things. The Internet itself is only one part of a larger inevitable freedom movement that has been stimulated by the Internet Reformation – just as the Reformation itself eventually shifted the parameters of power and authority throughout Europe."

Zer0head's picture

Last Thursday just before 8am Tom Keene and Sara Eisen made some curious comments to each other about Softbank, Goldman and Nextel only to cut the conversation off abruptly.  Later in the broadcast there was a circle jerk over the magnificient claims numbers.


This morning the claims numbers are a footnote with no mention of the revision. 


(I am not suggesting that Keene and Eisen had inside info on the deal but I would think that the Bloomberg Ombudsman and/or SEC should at the very least review the transcript and view the tape and perhaps ask those two exactly what they meant and why they cut the conversation so abruptly, especially in the context of Eisen's conversation with Cohn)

insanelysane's picture

There is no such thing as insider trading.  There is trading and there is outsider trading sometimes referred to as "retail investing."

dvsteenk's picture

yes, also noticed this shift of attention AWAY from claims numbers; last week was touted as sign that job recovery was picking up speed, today the same Tom Keene was saying the miss was averaging out last week's beat to a "no change"

Bloomberg must have some huge long interest, to pay off tomorrow

Made me ponder: the media are among the biggest market manipulators on the planet

Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Ha ha,

The Corporatist Pollyanna Progressives at Bloomberg blame this on a "seasonal shift".

Is their average reader that dumb? The figure given IS seasonally adjusted and the Non Seasonal Adjusted jumped 30,000.




Zer0head's picture

Bloomberg has gone right straight down the shitter.   They are actually worse than CNBS who at least let Santelli speak.

TruthInSunshine's picture

CnBSc has Santelli. Bloomturd has Jonathan Weil. These two are their respective token, prominently marketed "skeptics."

It's still all a stage, and the proof of the high drama it creates is the reaction caused whenever Santelli or Weil are allowed to challenge the Central Planning Committee's wisdom on "live teeeeveeee" or even in print.

Vince Clortho's picture

Ahhhh, similar to the illusion of choice we have with the 2 party political system.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Exactly. Or the token black people on any Disney show.

insanelysane's picture

I think the POTUS realized that most Americans aren't completely stupid.  They over-reached on the 7.8% number and it hurt the campaign as people can believe a bit of BS but not a truck load.  I think they will pump these numbers for a couple of weeks (or come close to reality) and then try for one more headline drop before the election.  As the saying goes, don't piss on my leg and tell me it is raining.

Stoploss's picture

Panic inflection dead ahead..

WatchingIgnorance's picture

The lies have gotten so complex and layered that they just sometimes forget where they are.

Math is such a bitch to fudge forever, even with all the fudge factors, adjustments and flat out lies.

Just wait until after the election . . .

LongSoupLine's picture

No one could have predicted one!

DosZap's picture

So far, there has been no explanation from the BLS or DOL for last week's outlier print.


The reason was because they held back the true reporting............................fact.

Late turning them in.Was the excuse.

Zadok's picture

Riot dog ate my homework...I'll have to turn it in next week.

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Suddenly I feel like voting for a rich Mormon Yankee.

GetZeeGold's picture



We boys from Dixieland stand with you.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Why do you think my entire operation is spread among only those states?  (I mean aside from the low to no property taxes).

BeaverFever's picture

The rest of the world stands and laughs at your leaders.

Then we anxiously look skyward for signs of circling drones...

CrimsonAvenger's picture

I feel like voting for a constitutionalist patriot from Texas, but they won't let me.

fonzannoon's picture

Realty ain't coming back. I don't care how low they set mortgage rates.

DavidC's picture

Yes, that made me smile as well fonzannoon!


kito's picture

No way fonz.....3pct down payments are all the rage again......time to lever up!!!!!

LawsofPhysics's picture

Bullshit.  We are looking into developing some more land or purchasing another set of town homes.  Minimum 20% down, no matter what bank you go to.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Actually 3.5% down for owner occupants on FHA mortgages is back.

I know it's really sad (for society, the taxpayers who subsidize this & in sounding the death knell for free markets), but it's true.

If you're an investor buying inventory or a developer on raw land projects, that's a totally different ballgame, and you'd better have a very tight relationship with a lender (preferably one who is really tight with Bill Dudley and Timmay) or plenty of private capital to use.