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Some Context On Spain's 'Big' Week

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Much is being made of the compression in Spanish bond spreads this week - the largest 3-day drop since Draghi's 'dream' speech. Four critical things come to mind: 1) increasing amounts of Spanish sovereign debt is now held by domestic banks, making the market less liquid (and far less transparent as any indication of 'reality'); 2) the ban on naked CDS (and Draghi's put) has created a hedging vacuum with CDS spreads collapsing and exposure slumping (technically dragging bond risk down); 3) Lower spreads reflexively mean lower probability of Rajoy saying "Si" - which is what is helping spreads compress (leaving event-risk high - as indicated by the outperformance of our legal arb trade); and perhaps most importantly 4) Recency bias is incredible - we have seen 100-plus percent rises in Spanish risk followed by 35-plus percent retracements a number of times and the current level of Spain risk is still above LTRO-inspired crisis levels. So let's not get all excited quite yet eh?

 

1) Domestic Bank holdings of Spanish bonds have surged... and dealers tied by Basel III RWAs will not inventory positions - leaving only fast money pinging risk around and self-referential domestic banks more than willing to load their boat with ECB collateral in a circular reach-around of glory (see CNBC ebulience every time an auction goes off!!)... once the fast-money leaves the building, and risk flares - who will save the precious domestic bank capital then? CDS traders? hhm, no...

 

2) Sovereign CDS markets no longer useful signals and arbitrage means technical drag on bond spreads... CDS (green) and bond spreads (orange) have tracked relatively well - but since the beginning of the CDS ban discussions, traders have reduced exposure en masse (enough to practically kill even the SovX index) leaving the basis between bonds and CDS wide enough to drive a truck through BUT noone willing to since proving the correlation required to hold sovereign CDS is too onerous (and as we warned here, there are unintended consequences). Managers are loathed to take on the SGB risk (as seen in point1 - leaving only the domestic banks to soak up their self-satisfying sovereign risk)... And withbasis traders gone from the equation, should we see a risk flare, there will be no-one to soak up the illiquidty premium in bonds (unintended consequence!)

 

[as a side note - one does have to wonder whether the compression in Spanish CDS is led by a swathe of self-referential CDS protection writing by Spanish banks? Its not quite as ridiculous as self-referential name CDS - but still thanks to LTRO, the banks and the sovereign are as agood as one and the same]

 

3) The strength in Spanish bonds is driven by compression in the front-end by 'hope's of OMT - which is conditioned on Rayoy's Request for aid. The lower spreads go - the less likely the Spanish are to ask for aid - given the conditionality - and the implied support becomes worth-less. What is fascinating is the outperformance of UK-Law bonds over local-Law bonds remains a huge margin - suggesting (rightly so) that hedge funds and fiduciaries are willing to pay up for legal protection over the inevitable subordination (no matter how many times we are told pari passu). The following chart shows the outperformance (A EUR6 compression from the EUR14 differential when we suggested the trade - quite an impressive unlevered return even if we say so ourselves) as the UK-law bond is up 10.6% (middle pane) and the local-law bond is up only 1.95% (lower pane)... Event Risk concerns remain high...

 

4) We've seen this pattern before...100%-plus up in risk, 35%-plus retracement, and repeat...

 

But apart from that (oh and record high and escalating Spanish bad loans and a 'bad bank' that will not be taking on RMBS), Spain is all good?

 

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Thu, 10/18/2012 - 20:12 | 2903017 Earl of Chiswick
Earl of Chiswick's picture

BREAKING: ECB to supervise banks

 

seems that Goog made good on their promise to exclude the frogs

http://www.france24.com/en/20121019-ecb-supervise-all-6000-eurozone-bank...

 

 

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 20:29 | 2903053 max2205
max2205's picture

Time I quit reading zh. These ads are too fucking annoying

Wtf over

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 22:54 | 2903324 lineskis
Thu, 10/18/2012 - 21:21 | 2903157 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

But don't worry, they are NEVER going to need a bailout. /end sarcasm.

 

http://jamesturkblog.blogspot.ca/

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 20:18 | 2903027 Dareconomics
Dareconomics's picture

I don't think Spain will be able to finance itself for the rest of the year. The Mainstream Media continues to repeat the lies of the Spanish Finance Ministry.

The truth is that Spain needs to sell at least €60bn in bonds before year end and that figure does not include bank bailout funds or a worsening budget deficit.

http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2012/10/13/mainstream-media-misreporti...

 

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 20:17 | 2903033 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Don't worry, Obama will make sure nothing happens before the election!

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 20:53 | 2903083 Insideher Trading
Insideher Trading's picture

The irony of the situation is that the European Union was supposed to be a bastion against war in Europe.

Instead, through central planning and the underlying political paradigm being communism, the seeds of war and impoverishment have been sowed.

This experiment, like all others like it, will prove to be the antithesis of what it's megalomaniac creators expected; mainly economic depression, social unrest, and ultimately war. In the age of the most lethal weapons ever devised by the human imagination, the outcome will be nightmarish.

If you think you can control economies and the underlying human condition, by all means, be my guest. You are engaging in acts of sheer futility.

 

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 20:46 | 2903094 realtick
realtick's picture

Once The Layoffs Begin They Will Hit Like An Avalanche http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2012/10/once-layoffs-be...

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 21:37 | 2903189 Orly
Orly's picture

Looks like it's gonna be brutal.

:0

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 02:38 | 2903577 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Everyone knows the central banksters are going to take the bondholders to the cleaners. They wouldn't be doing their job if they didn't. They're banksters. That is what banksters do.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 08:42 | 2903832 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

GOOGLE FORECAST:

As mentioned Oct 15 - days before the premature earnings sell off - GOOGLE daily / weekly / monthly charts are overextended & significant correction expected.

http://trader618.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!