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Bill Gross Warns "Very Likely' Central Banks Will Cause 1987-Like Crash
What takes other Political Journalism majors (and CTRL-C/V minors) pages and pages of verbose essays full of acronyms and meaningless gibberish to refute, Bill Gross asserts in less than 140 characters.
Gross: The crash on Oct 19 1987 showed that portfolio insurance puts were dangerous. R central bank “puts” in the same category?Very likely
— PIMCO (@PIMCO) October 19, 2012
Needless to say, he is absolutely correct.
Because just as HFT was a latent complacency "catastrophe factor" for the market, as we warned all throughout 2009 and were proven correct on May 6, 2010, so the central banks have now taken over the role of ultimate vol backstopper (as Artemis has shown over and over), a process which will have a catastrophic outcome with absolute certainty.
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Well then Crash this turkey already, I dont think I can take any more of this crap
will someone please put me outta my misery ?!
Put in your stops losses.
ALL OF YOU. Take the protfit even if it's a penny and hang the banks for their hubris.
It's 10:20 and Google has had selling pressure equal to it's average daily volume. Very dangerous. Best bet though, is to not play at all.
Yes, please, we cannot run your stops unless you put them in.
I was thinking the same thing.
let it crash so i dont have to go to work anymore.
No Fed, No HFT = No Market
Waddell & Reed for FED Chair...
..3-5 years, we are at 3 years-11 months. Could be 2014. Keep showing up at work.
Just look at our record. OK......maybe not.
that bet could keep you working forever.
Channel-sweeping anyone?
Good point.
But anyone in the reatail community still trading this slop is on crack. The risk to it isn't company losses or any basic fundimentals anymore. It's when the all equities are held by the bank and by proxy the government. They will have to print the entire market now, again.
If you've been hitting the crack pipe and think the market is going to work for you and not the owners...well, put in the stop loss to save your ass. Flying without it is like running around a whore house without a condom on. It's just stupid.
Soon is a loosely defined term, but soon. Take heart all you bears out there!
You've been right on every call so far, so I'm going to take heart.
The bond equity divergence isn't the same as in 1987...so soon will be later....
Put you out of your misery no way they need you as a Debt Slave :)
Gross isn't the only one predicting a crash Mark Hulbert
Another stock crash like 1987’s is inevitablehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/another-stock-crash-like-1987s-is-inevitable-2012-10-17
Paul Farrell
Doomsday Cycle targets America nexthttp://www.marketwatch.com/Story/story/print?guid=BB299A7A-1710-11E2-A50C-002128049AD6
Well then Crash this turkey already
There's always room for more turkey.
Here....have some Jello too!
twenty twenty twenty-four hours to goooo, I wanna be sedated...
It's a 72 hour waiting list....and that's only if you get past the deathpanels. Yes.....they're real.....we're not making it up.
"beat up the Ben, beat up the Ben, beat up the Ben with a baseball bat OH YEAH"
I hear the Yankees have a lot of unused bats for sale....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CelEmxWWFg
...o wait nm, Boston.
I don't wanna be buried in a pet cemetary...
I don't want to wind up a cartoon in a cartoon graveyard.
lol...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULjCSK0oOlI
Not when we have assholes like Potter "actively managing" everything like the VIX today. Look at that sweet 180 U-Turn!
What U turn? RSI is in the gutter.
Momentum is 30 to 1 against.
Will someone please tell the Euro...
Is anyone technically competent to confirm that put volume is closing open interest? Big banks are buying them back?
Just look at BATs. It's for laymen to watch the pressure in the system against particular stocks that are the market now (AAPL, GOOG, IBM)
All the players that lost their guts in profits.
Or install Eclipse Trader (open source, free as in Speech) and the HFT/Algo model plugins. HFT's are out of money until the next 40 billion dollar bond sale.
market has to quadruple first, its only doubled since '08. I say enjoy and smile, take a loved one out, enjoy the moment and remember it.
The Bill Gross who tweets is so much better than the Giant pussy I watch on TV.
I said the same thing below. lol
In pussy matters, concealment is an attraction leverage.
An Act of God seemes to be required.
God will be right back...He's trying to get the light at the end of the tunnel back on.
It doesn't look good.
That is actually a train heading right for us.
God's away on business.
Or God is the train. He has a sense of humor like that. It is to help us grow as human beings. Life would be boring without adversity.
Goldman forgot to pay the tunnel light bill.
Don't Follow The Money - Follow The Rate Of Real Money http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2012/10/dont-follow-mon...
Your charts are very interesting.
Thanks.
:D
nothing good can come of hft. it serves absolutely no useful purpose. go to a library to the finance section and pull out some of the books written in the 80s, 90s, etc before hft took over. it's hilarious reading all of the chapters about how to discern value, etc. those books could all be one page now.
Yeah, found a book called "Buffet invests like a bitch" or something like that.
Of course I haven't read it because I agree.
today would be nice seeing as I have an ass load of expiring puts
Yeah, today is about it for a few...
Bullish for the rest anyway.
There must be two people who clam to be Bill Gross. The one you see on tv with his CNBC brethren and the one who tweets and writes his essays seem like two very different people.
The PIMCO brand is very important to him, obviously. He has to toe the line when he is on CNBS but, reading between his lines, he says the same things without getting belligerent.
He wants to be invited back, you see...
The crash of 87 was tha last time we could clean up this credit banking mess with fiat without too much pain.
Now there is going to be PAIN.
Um, pain is something you experience when you hit your thumb with a hammer.
This is Birth. First Child type pain.
Hmmm child birth or Clubber Lang..............not sure about that.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJnKm6ftPu0
Gross thinks that parasites such as himself can remain outside the ring again.......perhaps but I am not so sure this time.
I have no idea what gibberish / financial horseshit he was sprouting but twitter tweets does not really cut it in a world of real physical resourse allocation.
So many of our "leaders" or at least the people who speak for our leaders have a amazing absurdity about them..........
PIMCO has done very, very well by me, thanks.
Dork - I recently finished the book with the same title as your username. Sweet story. Is that where you took it from?
Yes - the book portrays a mythical Cork that perhaps never existed in the world of the physical but there was a magic to the place at one time - the book captures the magic of the place , the film not so much.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=EO6Viuyc_fk
We had a depression in the 80s and afterwards the credit hyperinflation took its soul away.................
Not much remains now.
Long Orion.
Some will be spared the pain. Guillotines are quick.
I was at the birth of my first child, the wife had the lot epidural, gas and air etc, she still shouted the place down. At one point she started swearing at me!! What the hell did I do I was just standing there.
you didn't do nothing, it was the mail man. jk
Time for more VIX.
The Vix is an asshole.
Fuck Vix. I like Ludens.
They can't crash the turkey; they have too much invested in it.
So the turkey will immolate itself for them this time. Which is far worse.
I hope people are not making investment decisions because of a tweet..........is that what we have become now
I feel bad for you folks trading for a living. That cannot be a fun way to spend your days right now.
Do I have to repeat it again?
Same as with Lehman or 1987, or MFG, the Fed was forced to cause the crash.
There is one and one only explanation:
Money is Infinite and Stocks are Finite. There is a limit as to how far the Fed/Gov would like to OWN the stock market.
As in 1987, or 2008 or MFG, they had to engineer a crash. Period. It's simple. Infinite vs Finite. Easy, easy to understand.
TIME HAS COME TO CAUSE A NEW ONE, BUT THIS ONE WILL HAVE TO BE QUITE BIG AND OF COURSE, TOTALLY BLAMED ON CHINA.
Because when you have a crash, things get "hectic" and it is really difficult (not) to determine who actually owns what.
I'd say it's quite easy. Gov - Fed - Primary Deales are practially ONE ENTITY.
Only this entity has access to UNLIMITED FUNDS.
Kind of like gold and silver. Infinite dollars chasing finite amounts of gold and silver.
This just in......the SUN will come up in the morning.
Stay tune for further news.
In the past couple of hundered years we seem to arrive at the same junction time and time again.
As Mr Gross notes, and as most of us on here know, lets try something a bit more new, a little more novel. Lets get this crash over and done with, and then we can try a new and improved model. No more central banks, no more central government, no more interest bearing fractional reserve lending.
Lets all go to a system of outright value. You are worth what your labour gives you. I care not how we value this system as long as every man has a fair value for a fair days wage. But we stop the leeches of the monied class gambling on what a man is worth. If we can keep predators away from the rest of us I cannot for the life of me see how we cant make a better place for all of us.
And I read this during the week that Mr geithner has an IQ in the 77-79 range. Speaks for itself? No?
The system you describe is called Freegold. Separation of medium of exchange and store of value. It will emerge bc the reallly really wealthy savers have chosen gold long time ago. What the politicians and bankers do or not do doesn´t matter. It´s a matter of time only.
Gold lies very still in the hands of their owners. The stock to flow is about 60 years supply. Could it be that they value it much more than the official price? :)
I remember my first tweet bashing central banks.
I only want there to be a crash if there is no coming back. This civilization was retarded.
Gross is right. This pig of a jacked up QE market should be selling at
about an 8 multiple.
Another October crash just like 1929, just like 1907, just like the 700 billion dollars bail out in 2008.
And those puts are called "Interest Rate Swaps" and "FX Swaps". In the event the USD appreciates or interest rates go up, cash will begin spewing from every crack from the major affiliate derivative underwriter banks of the Fed.
So here are the scenarios:
(1) muddle through. USG continues cash flow deficit. Issues more debt month after month. Fed continues to buy up USTs. Inflation.
(2) debt market hiccup (defaults, downgrades, fed UST purchasing pause). Rates increase. IR Swaps begin spewing cash. Inflation
(3) other currencies shit themselves. USD appreciates. FX swaps begin spewing cash. Inflation.
You know the Fed is backstopping all derivatives. What do you do? Leverage up to your eyeballs. Use UST as collateral. Buy the put protection. The only way you lose is getting on the train too late.
The Fed is in a coffin corner.
The key is not to time the crash, but be prepared when it does happen.
Smartest comment of the year!
#VolatilityRepression
money velocity depression
What date do we put to this demise? Just curious...
Oh, and as a foot note, this also means you Mr Gross.
You get paid on what you are capable of earning. And after the monied class and the rentier class are done away with, lets find out what Mr Gross is capable of producing worth a bit of "value".
Never mind fucking about with peoples lives and futures. Lets see a world without HFT, CDO's, SIV's, ZIRP, and all the other bollcoks which strip the whole of the 99% down to skin and bones so the rentiers and the monied can live life on the hog.
There is a word for you're lot Mr Gross, you are what we call "parasites".
And you're days are numbered.
There can be NO CRASH. The Fed has "off balance" sheet ability to buy the entire market if necessary. "Other market operations" in the charter allows them to keystroke all stocks into their possession. Then, with that money chasing a smaller availability of shares (assuming the Fed owns just 70% of the market float) ... you'll see the market rocket to new highs.
HOW can they lose? They can not! I welcome anyone who thinks this strategy can not work.
1) Tighten supply of stocks/securities
2) Print/create money to do so and cause inflation
3) Upward pressure on prices comes from inflation and lower supply
4) Fed spends a decade getting out at a profit
5) Side effect is higher housing, gas, groceries, etc. -> that is NOT the Fed's concern
Insane, but true nonetheless...
The FED with unlimited power to lie, cheat, steal, punish, print, preach, and smile, ultimately only manipulate of the real economy that makes things of real value. Corporate lawyers, bankers, and politicians do not solve problems, they either create them or make them worse. You can bank on it (pun)
Things suddenly getting so scary:
Today is the 25th anniversary of the 1987 “crash”
Existing-home sales drophttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/sales-of-existing-homes-drop-in-september-2012-10-19?dist=lcountdown
Earnings Season Has Just Begun: Crucial Earning Reports Coming In WEAK!!! IBM, Intel, Google, Microsoft And McDonald All Came In Worse Than Expected!!! The Market Sell-Off Is Accelerating!!
http://investmentwatchblog.com/earnings-season-has-just-begun-crucial-ea...
Again, will someone please tell the Euro?
The bears are going apeshit
Cumulative inflationary effect of 3 QEs, a QE lite, and 2 twists are going to push the market up and out of this 12 year trading range like a Saturn 5 rocket.
Or you can side with Bill Gross's opinion that it is still possible to have a banking panic when the banks get 0% money and don't have to even use real accounting. No banking panic, no market selloff.
Unless there's a flash crash, right?
Bloomberg switched off of their Goldman suck fest. They went to an analyst they seemed to think was going to speak of skittle shitting unicorns but instead said that the Fed, ECB, BOJ, and BOE are all pumping money into circulation and physical assets are the place to be. They promptly cut him off and went to commercial. Must have gotten a call from Ben.
Any suggestion of a bear market is a nonsensical as someone saying the coming rally has anything to do with present earnings. It is all about the money.
Cue epic fed fail...part deux. 1987 was a cakewalk.. down 20% in a day and up every Yr for the NEXT 13 yrs. This will be much worse than "1987" believe ol virgil. This thing is big, it's global. its high speed and levareged and it's coming down hard.
Every time I think I should cash out of my stocks and sit on the sidelines for a while, the market goes up. I must be one of those proverbial muppets.
The only way another crrash like 29,87, 98 and 08 that the fed made happen, is when they are ready to make it happen
GOOGLE FORECAST:
As mentioned Oct 15 - days before the premature earnings sell off - GOOGLE daily / weekly / monthly charts are overextended & significant correction expected.
http://trader618.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis
I don't understand why everyone gets so excited about the possibility of a "crash" when they have unlimited QE.
Exactly, they could buy up the entire market cap, probably already have a good chunk through Black Rock. Like I said it will happen when they want it to happen.
Good call, mr. Gross, the herd has followed. I bet there's an elephant looking for cheap food, before this playing field called market gets up again, turning the tables. Until the next time, when the ring Stocks->MBS->Money->Stocks will shift.
Bill you are wrong, the only crash that can happen is on the currency as long as the Fed is printing, the risk is not that stock plunge, but that the currency does, long commodities short pricey stocks as insurance....
And short the US treasury junk bonds of evidently, the bubble of the ages...
This time Bill you are the one in the frying pan. In 1981 it was the commodities and Gold bug who were in the frying pan, in 2000 stocks, in 2007 it was stocks and junk bond holders while the Treasuries guy like you Bill Gross were having a party.
You are next for Dinner Bill....
um,
this time its different ....
I'm serious. History never repeats (but sometimes it rhymes.)
I'm looking for "death by a thousand paper cuts" ....
Wall Street has never deserved anything finer .....
In an crash anniversary like today, it is good to remember what the Dow Theory accomplished for its followers: They were spared
http://bit.ly/WxeDdT
'showed that portfolio insurance puts were dangerous', is Bill Gross talking about the banks High Frequency Fornication of us all?
The DOW JONES is on historic highs... and real economy very crappy. The spread thanks to Mr. Bernanke.... soon or later reality is going to met with this fictional market.
When U.S. Note crash... will be the end of all