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Flashback To Mark Haines Commemorating 1987... As Stocks Plunge Most In 4 Months

Tyler Durden's picture





 

On a day full of memories (and a market which is down the most in 4 months), we thought (courtesy of Doug Kass) the irreplacable Mark Haines view of the 1987 crash from 2007 (just a few days after what would be the market's absolute top) was worthy of remembrance. What is perhaps most notable in the discussion is Elaine Garzarelli's 'nailed-it' indicator-based call of the top in 1987 and subsequent total 'absolutely bullish' miss in 2007 - as central bank intervention had already removed any 'indicator-based' value from market participants' toolkits and business cycle comprehension. We wonder what Haines would have made of QEtc. and today's exuberant irrationality. Must-watch to 'check' some exuberance at the door.

 

and here is Garzarelli in January of 2012 - looking for Dow 15k... watch it - and see if any of it rings a bell?

 


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Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:54 | Link to Comment The Shootist
Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:00 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eR4KcO_MovE&feature=related

 

The helmet of country himself, Conway Twitty

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmimLBSTEUw

 

Stompin Tom...minus the NHL

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:09 | Link to Comment Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

I like old (read real) country better. ;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sAUTfkk2zp0

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:18 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

holy fucking shit how does this woman afford to feed herself? this fucking farce of farces! the sheeple must be slaughtered out of their grazing stupor!

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:27 | Link to Comment Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

The sheer volume of retardation coming out of her mouth is appalling. "The market's focusing on domestic economy these days... yadda yadda"

WTF!

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 23:41 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

She looks like the Joker. Way too much plastic.

Me, I grow old gracefully.

No I don't, I grow old kicking and screaming but I still grow old just as fast.

and happy with it...

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:30 | Link to Comment jcaz
jcaz's picture

LOL- still living on her one good call, 25 yrs later......

ALL of us saw it, Elaine-  you just didn't have any real money on the line back then....

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:58 | Link to Comment AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Here is PBS's Nightly Business Report Broadcast from the night of October 19, 1987. The sponsors of the show were Kidder, Peabody and Digital Equipment Corp., which just goes to show how transitory some public companies can and will be. Neil Cavuto was actually reporting, not spinning. Note the Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman stepping in to try to "calm" the markets. History definitely rhymes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pjSlIkNxXg  1st ten minutes

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-aFfkB4xv4  2nd ten minutes

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6e7qn2n4qLg Final ten minutes

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 18:15 | Link to Comment Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Well, she said buy TNA back in January and it went from 45 to a 70 top!

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:46 | Link to Comment Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Is she half goat, half human? Her face looks like the back of a goat!

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:00 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Last time I saw a mouth like that it had a hook in it,

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:56 | Link to Comment Ivanovich
Ivanovich's picture

Does this woman have the same makeup artist as The Joker?

 

"I'm only smiling on the outside..."

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:01 | Link to Comment SemperFord
Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:04 | Link to Comment I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

She's been using Smiley

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 22:38 | Link to Comment Lazlo Toth
Lazlo Toth's picture

I believe based on my recollection... it was Smilex. :)

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:01 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

I knew she looked familiar!

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:48 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

That's not make-up, dude. That's the way her face is shaped. Hope shie didn't pay for that. Ugh.

She's just hawkin' for business.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:53 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

William Banzai has moved to video.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 22:39 | Link to Comment Drachma
Drachma's picture

I would suspect it's the result of cosmetic surgery gone wrong, with multiple re-tries to fix the botched cheeck enhancements.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:56 | Link to Comment The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

Is that the Joker?

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:04 | Link to Comment Fleecer
Fleecer's picture

with one sweeeeeet-ass  fro.

 

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:50 | Link to Comment It is a bargin ...
It is a bargin my friend's picture

Shit that reminds me..I have some letters to post

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:59 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Mark Haines isn't really dead. It's a conspiracy.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:37 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Being held hostage in the basement of a three-story tenement in Paducah, Kentucky, the town he dog-mouthed continually lo those many years...

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:17 | Link to Comment fourchan
fourchan's picture

suicide is painless.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:59 | Link to Comment The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

Elaine "Wait till they get a load of me" Gazzerili.  Always smiles and always bullish

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:01 | Link to Comment Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

Erin Burnett.....YUM!

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:01 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

Former Lehman Brothers partner and managing director?

Oh yah, she would be the first I'd turn to for market advice.............NOT.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:02 | Link to Comment LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

Mark Haines... A man's man. You are missed. 

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:13 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Mark Haines was pretty cool but he used to try to make Schiff look like a nut job.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:05 | Link to Comment Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

More proof that if you're a complete incompetent idiot and trown enough darts at the board, you might hit the bulls eye once, like Garzarelli in 1987.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:05 | Link to Comment Legolas
Legolas's picture

L M A O !!!

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:06 | Link to Comment semperfi
semperfi's picture

BULLISH!!!  No sarc.  Genuinely bullish!!  BTFD!!  Bernanke PUT will 100% money-back gauranteed save the day.  That is until hyperinflation kicks in, which we are a looong way from.  So double, even triple down and BTFD !!

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:05 | Link to Comment semperfi
semperfi's picture

BULLISH!!!  No sarc.  Genuinely bullish!!  BTFD!!  Bernanke PUT will 100% money-back gauranteed save the day.  That is until hyperinflation kicks in, which we are a looong way from.  So double, even triple down and BTFD !!

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:07 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

it's called "buy low sell high" for a reason....not "buy high sell higher." i would say Chairman Bernanke's "Beggar thy Neighbor" is causi bellum...but for whom...but for whom. Clearly "the panic trade" has been treasuries...and we are told...here no less...to "buy, buy, buy." eh, maybe. spending does seem a tad on the high side, no? and well, that is pretty significant borrowing too. interestingly "all without inflation." clearly no one can be surprised by the social unrest! and the idea that money center banks is the place to be...well, that's quite a run they've had i must say. but isn't the lesson of 2008 "know thy borrower"??? no? how about "know they collateral" then? "oh, that's real estate and that only goes up"? "especially after it goes down that one and only time"? how long have i been saying that these ultra low interest rates represent DEFAULT risk? going on over a year now? But "for a REAL BIG SPENDER" yes, yes? i mean "they've already cleaned out all the lemonade stands" in our economy. I did take note "they're auctioning new cars in e-bay"...something i've been waiting for a some time now. Now LET'S TALK TAXES SHALL WE....

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:22 | Link to Comment greensnacks
greensnacks's picture

What false afternoon rumor is on the books to drive the market higher into close?

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:09 | Link to Comment MMM
MMM's picture

She looks drunk

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:09 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Gypsies are so fun to listen to.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:14 | Link to Comment Jake88
Jake88's picture

What is she on? I'd like to get some.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:17 | Link to Comment surf0766
surf0766's picture

B cups

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:16 | Link to Comment reload
reload's picture

Jesus, what a waste of oxygen.

Sell side buffoonery squared.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:16 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

she went from 14 indicators down to 12 indicators...............i guess she got rid of the 2 that caused her miss in 2007 !

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:18 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

They had a down day in Zimbabwe a couple times.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:21 | Link to Comment NeedleDickTheBu...
NeedleDickTheBugFucker's picture

Interesting that she is now looking at 12 indicators, down from 14 back in 2007.  Maybe she will get it right when her model has 0 indicators.

 

Edit - didn't see your comment Seasmoke.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:26 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That Woman is nukking futs I cannot believe she would be recommending financials......well yes I can believe she's recommended financials she's a Lehman Brothers clown. Maybe she should get a room with Abby Joseph and Dick Bove For a little three-way.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:39 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Do you have to use that word, "clown," seriously?

Your words are so hurtful, doc.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:46 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You are correct. To all of you clowns out there I sincerely apologize.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:35 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Remember that article posted sometime within the past week, in which one of the Tyler's noted the last time investor sentiment was so bullish, back in December 2008, and how the S&P proceeded to plunge 22% over the course of the next 11 trading days?

Well, let's see - there are precisely 11 trading days remaining until the eve of the 2012 General Election. So, applying the same 22% drop to our latest S&P high of 1470-ish, gives us an S&P of 1150-ish by EOD Friday, 11/2/2012.

It also would give us President Mitt Romney and Vice-President Paul Ryan, and likely an all-Republican Congress, to boot.

Doesn't that sound like the script that is being played out?

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:23 | Link to Comment AustriAnnie
AustriAnnie's picture

Housing has bottomed and she argues this is because of statistics they look at that have turned up in the LAST THREE WEEKS?  Apparently, 3 weeks is all it takes to make a long term secular bull trend.

Best line in the interview:

"We worked together at Lehman Brothers"  (that says it all)

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:26 | Link to Comment web bot
web bot's picture

If you look at her body language, she likely has Apsergers... and is likely brilliant. Looks and her communication style are deceiving.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:27 | Link to Comment killallthefiat
killallthefiat's picture

The poor thing has had too much plastic surgery.  She has looked like this for years on the Nightly Business Report.  That is the takeaway.  Say no to plastic surgery, and stocks!

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:27 | Link to Comment piceridu
piceridu's picture

That's some bad plastic surgery...what's with women looking like their cat?

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 18:47 | Link to Comment tooktheredpill
tooktheredpill's picture

she looked like the joker in a few of those shots - probably around the time she mentioned subprime

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:31 | Link to Comment Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

what's the symbol for the inverse Garzarelli ETF? 

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:31 | Link to Comment tooriskytoinvest
tooriskytoinvest's picture

Google, Microsoft, Intel, HP all disappointing, Apple to come?

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:32 | Link to Comment I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

"Financials also look good, Dick Bove was on earlier, we worked together at Lehman Brothers"

LMAO, can't imagine why Lehman Brothers imploded and brought the world to its knees.

The real question is why does Fox have these fools on?  

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:34 | Link to Comment TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

she actually made a good call

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 18:48 | Link to Comment tooktheredpill
tooktheredpill's picture

true, if you sell now

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:36 | Link to Comment mktsrmanipulated
mktsrmanipulated's picture

notice now oil up to 135 a barral is a problem in 2007 it was 120 shes a clown that guessed right once

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:41 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

There it is again, "clown!"

See what you've wrought, doc?  You should be ashamed!

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:40 | Link to Comment DrDinkus
DrDinkus's picture

i miss erin

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:03 | Link to Comment AwkwardReader
AwkwardReader's picture

You can tell the host have a hard time looking at her.

I have a hard time listening to someone if they can't look at themself in the mirror.

Oh, and by the way. Doesn't it feel strangely like a David Lynch theatric. About as awkward as Henry's girlfriend's mother trying to kiss him.  Damn, I need a shower.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:07 | Link to Comment mktsrmanipulated
mktsrmanipulated's picture

wouldnt u have a hard time looking at a plastic version of the JOKER with breast

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:08 | Link to Comment rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Just a rumor....all Mormons will engage in a massive short selling exercise on the election eve driving the markets into a free fall....

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 15:01 | Link to Comment haskelslocal
haskelslocal's picture

Moocopia

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:24 | Link to Comment hedgehog9999
hedgehog9999's picture

Can you say Iguazu or Niagara.......?

Than you GOOG and GE for bringing people to their senses!!!

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:26 | Link to Comment debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

This woman has a big big family.... All saying the same stupid thing. Worse than second hand car sales people. Hang them.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 15:05 | Link to Comment Stanley Lord
Stanley Lord's picture

Meredith Whitney is going to look like this in 25 years.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 15:11 | Link to Comment jomama
jomama's picture

.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 15:52 | Link to Comment Tango in the Blight
Tango in the Blight's picture

2007: Aw isn't the market bubbly? It is all going to be just fantastic!

2012: Aw isn't the market bubbly? It is all going to be just fantastic!

 

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 21:16 | Link to Comment pavman
pavman's picture

Warning: Fiscal cliff dead ahead and not to mention stupdity off the rails.  Here we go.. baby... my prediction next major low Nov 22.  Last few years it seems to bottom Nov 22.  And I'd bet 10 whole Federal Reserve Notes that congress will not, I repeat WILL NOT be able to compromise to avoid the fiscal cliff.

Any takers?

(lamest congress in the history of congress)  hell, I'm stilll hoping on 12/21/2012 rotating [sic changing] the earth so I'm on the edge of the equator on 12/22/2012.  Because if that happens, hello paradise babee.  Winner winner chicken dinner!

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 17:07 | Link to Comment hustler etiquette
hustler etiquette's picture

X_x

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 18:00 | Link to Comment DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

Investors that followed the Dow theory scaped almost unscathed the crash.

 

Good to remember this. The proof of the cake is in the eating.

 

Figures, not talk:

 

http://bit.ly/WxeDdT

 

 

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 20:38 | Link to Comment Inspector Callahan
Inspector Callahan's picture

The Evil Face. So I think we have a scheme here according to the plastic surgery the market is going to collapse. And she didn't change her methods since 1987 what a shame for an expert. Please go back to school just on the right of your clinic.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 21:06 | Link to Comment pavman
pavman's picture

DOW 15K!!!! HERE WE COME>>>>BUYING OPPORTUNITY TODAY>>>>>BUYBUYBUYBUYBUYBUBYBYYBYBYBYBYBYEBYEBYEBYEBYE>>>>>>!

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 14:20 | Link to Comment neutrinoman
neutrinoman's picture

It's sad to watch the bulls of the 80s and 90s continuing to push tired themes that no longer work. The stock market entered a secular bear market in 2000 and has not left it, not yet, anyway. Do we have to keep listening to the likes of Brian Wesbury, Jeremy Siegel, Abby Joseph Cohen, et al.? Even Cramer understands that the Boomers' great bull market is over and you have to be more selective and learn to get out as quickly as you get in.

These prognosticators keep trying to use the classic market indicators, mainly from the fixed-income markets. But precisely these markets are wildly distorted by years of open-ended central bank intervention. Better to look at commodities or FX, which are better free-floating indicators of what's going on. Not until central banks start losing control, or give up manipulation, of fixed-income markets will we have true "mark-to-market" indicators return to tell us what's happening.

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