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Guest Post: The Political Black Swan

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Via Global Macro Monitor,

Fiscal cliff collides with a replay of the Bush v Gore 2000 fiasco.  Not good.

We noted in an earlier post today Governor Romney has moved ahead of President Obama on the Real Clear Politics electoral map for the first time of this presidential campaign.  The Governor has also opened a 7 point lead in the Gallup national tracking poll of likely voters.

We recognize that 19 days is an eternity in politics, but the underlying dynamics with states moving in and out of play and the tightening of polls in the battleground states has increased uncertainty,  at least in our opinion,  on who will be the next POTUS.

It appears to us that the momentum is in Governor Romney’s favor, but we do not have a good sense of the political dynamics on the ground in the states that really matter, such as Ohio, Nevada, and Colorado.

As traders we are always nervous and looking for potential disasters on the horizon.  We are becoming increasingly concerned the way this election is shaping up.   Imagine, for example,  if Governor Romney wins the popular vote and President Obama takes the electoral college, or vice versa.

We see the President’s probability of winning the election on Intrade remaining above 6o percent while Governor Romney opens a fairly significant lead in the daily Gallup tracking poll (see below).  WTF?

The Black Swan?   The fiscal cliff collides with a replay of the Bush v Gore 2000 election fiasco.  Total disaster.

The resulting political paralysis coming at such a critical time as the country edges toward the fiscal cliff would collapse confidence and suck markets into a black hole that nobody knows how they would look coming out the other side.   Recall the nonlinear dynamics of 2007-08 financial collapse.  Greece?  Wiemar?   Who the %#@& knows and let’s hope and pray we never do.

This isn’t our base case and the probability of such a scenario is relatively low.  But, we believe it is such a high impact event that everyone, including and especially the politicos in Washington,  should be aware, afraid, and have a contingency plan.

We’re always nervous but growing more so as November 6th approaches.  Stay tuned.

(click here if charts are not observable)

 


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Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:39 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:41 | Link to Comment takeaction
Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:47 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

None

Of

The

Above

 

You vote for either option and you are fucked.  Who doesn't get this yet?

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:50 | Link to Comment krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Obama's 'base' is going to vote for him because he's still 'black' and the checks are still showing up. Romney's 'base' is going to vote for him because he's a whiter shade of 'he's not Obama'. And the rest of us will vote for 'WTF!'...

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:05 | Link to Comment Jake88
Jake88's picture

he's not as black as he used to be.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:35 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

keep obama in president

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 16:09 | Link to Comment jamezelle
jamezelle's picture

I don't think anyone got the reference.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 17:34 | Link to Comment Centauri
Centauri's picture

Romney sucks...BAD

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 15:34 | Link to Comment Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

"he's not as black as he used to be."

Romney?  He couldn't be whiter.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 15:57 | Link to Comment WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot's picture

I've never been black. WTF 2012!

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 16:06 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

WTF FTW!

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:05 | Link to Comment Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Don't worry, be happy!

Everyone go back to sleep, when we all wake up on Nov. 7, we'll be back in Never, Never Land and that awful Capt. Hook will be gone.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:05 | Link to Comment SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

The fiscal cliff collides with a replay of the Bush v Gore 2000 election fiasco.  Total disaster.

Well, either a disaster, or the ensuing full-frontal totalitarianism pushes fence-sitters off the fence, bringing about the end of the totalitarianism.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:39 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Obama's "base" is TINY.  A lot of folks voted for him because they bought into the "change" thingie.

Given that there's been NO CHANGE, there's a very strong chance his former supporters (fair-weather supporters at best) just don't turn out.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 20:39 | Link to Comment Nehweh Gahnin
Nehweh Gahnin's picture

While I wasn't sold on the "change" thingie, it sounded better than the alternative 4 years ago, and so I cast my (last) ballot.  It didn't matter, cuz I'm in one on those dark red states, but I felt good about it ... for about ten fucking minutes.  The only thing I object to in your comment is the "fair-weather" smack.  Otherwise, spot on.  Yeah, he ain't getting my vote this time.  Neither is the other scuzbag.  BOYCOTT THE VOTE, BITCHEZ!!!

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 12:58 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

No offense is intended--hey, I voted for the guy myself.  But to be clear: he came out of NOWHERE.  He never had any kind of background that would earn him votes--one Senate term and a bunch of soundbites.  He won the last election solely because Dubya's administration had been so fuckin' awful people would've voted for *anything* different.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 01:31 | Link to Comment Jani
Jani's picture

With all the acronyms floating around ZH, did anybody else look at "TINY" and think "what the fuck does that stand for?" ---or is just 1:30 AM and I'm getting tired?

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 15:56 | Link to Comment WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot's picture

Good to know I have your support!

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:11 | Link to Comment aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

hopefully we here in the great and intellectual state of Florida will again get to be the deciders just like in 2000... and we've got the gene pool to make the right decision

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/08/14303438-florida-man-dies-aft...

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:22 | Link to Comment aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

I've spent a lot of time in Maine, and I really like the people, but I think they may need to spend a little less time drinking and tipping cows... just sayin.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:04 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Think someone pissed in the USA's gene pool a while ago.

Thwart natural selection and voila.........

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:39 | Link to Comment Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

The urine you speak of was added by the federal government in the form of welfare.  Welfare enables the weak, feeble and inferior to survive and reproduce in above average numbers.

The only way to restore natural selection is to end entitlements.

Let me put it another way: the only way the human race progresses or moves forward is by ending entitlements.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 15:38 | Link to Comment Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

We could have granted welfare and stifled reproduction, but then where would all the soldiers and government supporting zombies come from?

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 15:46 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

We could have granted welfare and stifled reproduction, but then where would all the soldiers and government supporting zombies come from?

 

We did,and welfare has contributed to millions of out of wedlock kids(not near as many as have been murdered thru abortion though), there are your TAXPAYERS we do not have now,as whites, did /do it mostly for convienence.

But the Gov supporting zombies were not part of it(until they were Obamacized out of a job).

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 16:09 | Link to Comment Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

"We did,and welfare has contributed to millions of out of wedlock kids"

I thought I said stifle reproduction.  Let me check .... yeah, I did.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 17:16 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

"We did,and welfare has contributed to millions of out of wedlock kids"

I thought I said stifle reproduction.  Let me check .... yeah, I did.

I guess you meant sarc/, I was refering to the zombies supporting the gov, and taxpayers welfare babies ain't.(maybe I misunderstood SUPPORT.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:29 | Link to Comment Pinktip
Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:18 | Link to Comment David449420
David449420's picture

Really great choice Americans have this election. Do you want a Socialist Police State or a Fascist Police State ?

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:55 | Link to Comment Jethro
Jethro's picture

We get neither.  We'll have an Inverted Totalitarian state regardless of who wins.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 15:02 | Link to Comment Earth Ling
Earth Ling's picture

Here's what to do about the Two Parties, No Choice / Lesser of Two Evils crap we're faced with:

1.       Review the the map above and do the following:

2.       Compile a list of your progressive-leaning friends, family members, co-workers and acquaintances in solidly Red States

3.       Compile a list of your conservative or libertarian-leaning friends, family members, co-workers and acquaintances in solidly Blue States

4.       Contact your list of progressives in Red States and explain that they should vote for Jill Stein of the Green Party.  Their vote will do far more for our democracy if they vote for Jill Stein than if they vote for Obama in a state where he can't possibly win. 

5.       Similarly contact your list of conservatives in Blue States and explain why they should vote for Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party. Their vote will do far more for our democracy if they vote for Gary Johnson than if they vote for Romney in a state where he can't possibly win. 

 

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 16:49 | Link to Comment TraitorsHang
TraitorsHang's picture

This is going to replace my Ron Paul 2008 bumper sticker:

http://www.cafepress.com/mf/8846241/turd-sandwich-bumper_bumper-sticker

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 18:56 | Link to Comment cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

well.... there's also a chance that the Mayans were right and with passage through the galaxy center and planet alignment we have a pole shift or who knows what we have an end to life as we know it and EVERYBODY (the fraction of humanity that survives that is...) ends up living at a subsistence level.... not really all that different from the endgame  in a total financial collapse

 

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:50 | Link to Comment SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

People really aren't understanding how crucial the fiscal cliff will end up being.  If Romney loses to Obama, the Republicans have ZERO incentive to negotiate until the last minute.  The longer they hold out, the more concessions they can get from the Democrats.

If Romney wins, the same thing happens just in reverse.

There will be no resolution until there is blood on the streets (metaphorically speaking of course - bankers and politicians never feel genuine heat unless we are in total revolition mode).

Throw in what appears to be imminent war with Iran/Syria, and shit is about to get real.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:07 | Link to Comment Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

With jumbo jets to anywhere and mega-yahts at their disposal, I doubt the bankers and politicians will ever feel genuine heat again.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:17 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

No, you don't understand.

There is no resolution to the fiscal cliff for reasons that are NOT POLITICAL.

If you relax the tax increases and spending cuts, the debt goes up and failure to act likely triggers downgrades.  Also, and this is important, a "compromise" of 1/2 . . . let 1/2 the tax increases happen and 1/2 the spending cuts happen WILL drive GDP negative.

If you don't relax the increases and cuts, then you get the full cliff and an even more negative GDP hit.

What's happening is people are failing to understand "tipping point".  When you're past it, as we are, THERE IS NO SOLUTION.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:07 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Afraid we passed the tipping point lasr August(2011).

All downhill from here.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:38 | Link to Comment Sorynn
Sorynn's picture

I keep trying to tell friends that in a fiat currency, fractional reserve system aggregate debt must always increase.  With the private sector deleveraging, the public sector can induce austerity and start the defaults or run up the debt till the currency collapses. 

Then they look at me with intellectual drool and say something ingenius like, "That's why you have to vote for Romney."

 

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:40 | Link to Comment Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

sweet.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:50 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Historicly, the Republican candidate will gain 5-7 points in the month before the election, as polls get a better focus on likely voters.

Also, the first debate outcome was huge, not because Romney won, but because the media aren't smart enough or flexible enough to handle more than one momentum change between the conventions and the election.  They are herding animals. 

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:05 | Link to Comment LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

The media could handle the change they just choose not to they have become the propaganda wing of the White House

 

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:56 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

These figures do not include the new #'s after the second debate.

Whatever the outcome, we must be rid of Obama.

PERIOD.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 20:25 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Pray tell, what do you have against the Monkey-in-Chief?

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:41 | Link to Comment Atlantis Consigliore
Atlantis Consigliore's picture

Puts..........200 BP move in yield curve.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:41 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Fiscal cliff collides with a replay of the Bush v Gore 2000 fiasco.

This election is no where CLOSE to what the shitstorm that was the 2000 election, was.

I mean, it COULD be, with the voter registration shenanegians.......but that race was as close as any race in political history going into election night.

This race, Obama is clearly the favorite, and Romney is not even liked by his own party. 

Gore v Bush was really Left v Right in every sense of the term.  It WAS the start of the new age of polarization that we live in today.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:58 | Link to Comment divide_by_zero
divide_by_zero's picture

Obama has alienated 53% of the country as Gallup shows(and their sampling still should favor O), probably will be a blowout for Romney in popular vote on the scale of Reagan's Carter win, electoral will be closer though.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:46 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

That's a bold prediction.  I got two bits says you're WAY wrong. 

It's virtually impossible to generate a major popular-vote discrepancy these days--the parties are too similar.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:06 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Well, here's another pundit spinning the fearful Bush vs. Gore reprisal meme, yet I've never seen this much apathy toward a POTUS election in all of my life.

So, just who comprises the "Global Macro Monitor?" Looks like some guy named Gary.

http://macromon.wordpress.com/about/

So... agent provocateur, or just another useful idiot parroting elite memes?

Either way, it smells badly of another episode of directed history, as the whole meme fails to add up. As I've mentioned before. There are yards filled around here with every candidate's sign from their party EXCEPT POTUS. I have never, ever seen this happen before.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:16 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

After your comment the other day I rechecked my observations.

From Palm beach upto Stuart here in  south Florida;Dixie highway,US1 and A!A.

Three presidentional signs,lost count on the local,state, and congresscritter ones.

Is this West guy a new realty broker ? Or canned fish brand ?

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 20:02 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

West is my congressman for another month or two. An unabashed conservative, he was driven out of the army when he cared more about the troops under his command than about the eardrums of an Iraqi prisoner. The perfumed princes at the Pentagon (hat tip to David Hackworth, RIP, for introducing me to the phrase) didn't much like that. He also had a habit of calling out his neighbor, Ditzy Wasserman-Schultz. The RINO-Republican establishment in Florida was so pissed at him that they redrew his district to eliminate some Republicans and add some Democrats. I live in part of the area that was removed from his district.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:41 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

Oh thank God. Anything to forstall one of those two morons 'winning' is good by me.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:57 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Good afternoon Sloane. Reporting in from a very wet and cold camping trip. I agree that both candidates are morons, however I do believe that the selection will send things into chaos.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:35 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

Hello Doc! Our camping trip got postponed unfortunately. Despite the intemperate climate, I hope you are having a good time. There is going to be chaos one way or another, regardless of who wins. If Obama loses, I expect some 'expressions of disenchantment' on the streets. If Romney loses, I expect the markets and the business community at large to react with hostility even though Obama has been very good to bankers and other CEO's. There is no way there is going to be a graceful win. This country is already so polarized and fragmented but I expect even further polarization. The media will be the big winners, generating more propaganda than Bernanke generates bucks. The losers of either outcome is going to be us. There will be no peace for months to come.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:42 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I agree with you 100%. Hey by the way I noticed you were missing on the day that was mysteriously "Attacked "? Hmmmmmmm :-)

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:48 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

Uh....um...I was washing my hair. All day. I swear!

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:54 | Link to Comment squib
squib's picture

Get a room, bitchez.

 

 +1's to you though

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:08 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

It's a nice thought, but it just provides a bit more "fog of war" to launch any other number of crimes. After all, it isn't like they lock the doors to all those office buildings in DC.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:43 | Link to Comment thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

Throw in LA 1992 for fun.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:37 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

All I can say is Obama better not win the popular vote and lose electoral or there will be rioting in the streets for sure

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:45 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

"... and the deck began to tilt at an alarming angle ..."

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:02 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

ROTFL!!!...that was good.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:45 | Link to Comment The big unzip
The big unzip's picture

Texas leans?  WTF!  That should be a give-me

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:36 | Link to Comment object_orient
object_orient's picture

I saw that too. Has Texas gone Dem since LBJ?

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 15:00 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

Texas leans?  WTF!  That should be a give-me

 

This is because the population shift from Cali into the Texas area.Everywhere Californians come in large numbers, the state gets screwed up politically.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:48 | Link to Comment sandhillexit
sandhillexit's picture

Latest R fund-raising request came with a "2012 Election Recount Volunteer Form" which sounds like a plan if the share is Colorado. I am available to lead the recount in Breckenridge in December. southern Ohio in December, not so much.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:49 | Link to Comment Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

Wisconsin is always listed as a tossup but it seems like it always goes Democrat by a fair margin

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:59 | Link to Comment LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

I wouldn't count on that this time the people in Wisconsin are sick of it that's why we voted Governor Walker in and kept him in even though they tried ousting him costing us taxpayers millions in a bogus recall.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:01 | Link to Comment Atlasshruggedme
Atlasshruggedme's picture

True.. Because of the Scott Walker event. Things have changed.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:23 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Its amazing what out of state money backing Walker spent at 10 times the rate of the challenger can do...

Call it a taste of things to come... Hope you like it...

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:45 | Link to Comment LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

I didn't junk you but that works both ways the Unions spent a fortune here in Wisconsin, they bussed in people from MN, IL, MI all over. As a taxpayer in Wisconsin I already like it.

Spending Gap? Media Ignores $21 Million Unions Spend

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:48 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

You cannot be serious...

The Koch's all by themselves are anteing up $300,000,000....

That clown Sheldon Adelson dropped ~10 million Newt's way, he underwrote the GOP *convention* to the tune of $5,000,000...

Would you like to me provide more examples? Here, I could not resist...

http://seattletimes.com/html/politics/2019469138_apusbiggestdonorsrepublicans.html

This list is ~$80,000,000 from 5 guys and we have not even got into the secret donations to Rove's Crossroads GPS super-pac....

Walker had his election bought and paid for by out-of-state money... case closed...

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 15:11 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

You cannot be serious...

Little reporting on the 180 million Obama got, from overseas donors, only 2% of that was reportable.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 19:19 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Reference please.....

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:49 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

It doesn't matter who wins, the fact that the country is so divided means there will be open strife even after the clown show scores are tallied.  I don't see anything but sore losers regardless.

Scary to imagine what the brown clown does if he gets booted out. I suppose there is golf, but I'm betting his minions have a lot of paper to shred.

  

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:28 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Me thinks we are at the equivalent of Antebellum 2.0....

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:36 | Link to Comment InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

with emphasis

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:35 | Link to Comment InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

Bunch of fear-mongering blow-hards. Won't be around to process the logic fail when your prediction isn't even close to reality.

I'm sure you are gobbling up the NRA's BS about marshal law and POTUS taking away all your ability to spontaneously kill things. Run out and buy more guns so you can show people how secure you are. 

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:53 | Link to Comment wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

BandGap said: Scary to imagine what the brown clown does if he gets booted out.

I hear ya' - he could certainly outdo Clinton when it comes to giving out pardons. How much ya' wanna bet Eric Holder gets one? And I'm sure there will be others just as aggregious.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 20:47 | Link to Comment mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

My money's on Obama winning the election .... the demographics have made that a foregone conclusion this year and into the foreseeable future.

That said my list for who'd be pardoned for the flight out on Choom Wagon 1 if he were to leave in January includes:

- the Hon/Rev/Dr/etc Jesse Jackson Jr
- Kathleen Sebelius
- John Edwards
- John Corzine

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:56 | Link to Comment BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

Their is a BIG illusion that an election is taking place.

.

News Flash: Their isnt no 'election' - the fuckin AGENDA is full on and the fix is in.

.

The reality is - the global elite dont give a flying fuck about you or I or our families and our well being. NOTHING, nada - zilch.

.

How does anyone, honestly, can say that these people care?

 

 

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:13 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Now, you've went and done it!

I see that three people don't appreciate you busting their security bubble of delusion.

Wanna bet they're all treasonous* voters?

 

*Voting legitimizes the unconstituional form of government that resulted from the Coup of '13.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:51 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Leave it all up to the electoral college: they know what's best for us. Don't worry your pretty head over things that you know so little about

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 15:07 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

Leave it all up to the electoral college: they know what's best for us. Don't worry your pretty head over things that you know so little about

 

Check RASMUSSEN for the real figures.It's a hell of a lot tighter, a TOSS UP, and the figures from the Second debate re not showing YET in this UPSWING for Romulus.

With Obama getting 5 minutes more time, and the fat lady moderating to O's advantage, the fix is in.

Why n the hell a GOP pretender would ever agree to a Marxist network, and a Liberal moderator, is a mystery.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:52 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I believe we will face either this outcome or massive civil unrest if Romney wins the electoral vote and Obama wins the popular vote.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:12 | Link to Comment LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

Plenty of people must believe that Dr likely why Gun sales have been so strong

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:36 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That combined with the fact we have a gun grabber in the office, and a gun grabber trying to hide the fact that they are running for office.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:48 | Link to Comment Jam Akin
Jam Akin's picture

Why should there be any civil unrest regardless of the result? In practical policy outcome terms it does not matter who wins. The policy constraints win in the end.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:03 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

In real terms that is true yes, however the sheep believe there's a difference between the two.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:24 | Link to Comment Jam Akin
Jam Akin's picture

Are sheep capable of mayhem? Especially when drugged and bought off?

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:52 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

A Romney victory IS THE BLACK SWAN EVENT. The implications are as profound as they are real as they would represent a fundamental shift in the governing dynamic of the USA going on over 65 years now ("Present at the Creation"...Dean Acheson. Must read.) The bottom line is that the current Democratic policies as implemented to deal with the current reality are CLASSIC Cold War...provided we "ignore the war thingy." That's why it feels like Vietnam all over again. BECAUSE IT IS. This is not a "New Normal" folks...but a New Paradigm...and you either get on board this thing...or be run over by it. (hint, hint: the folks you got it were the ones you all love to vilify: Paulson, Bernanke, Geithner. They put GOVERNMENT front and center...and WELL RUN GOVERNMENT at that. The current Administration represents "the Government we know"...that is not true should they lose...and they are indeed....LOSING.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:52 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

"This race, Obama is clearly the favorite, and Romney is not even liked by his own party".....huh?

 

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:12 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

I think he meant not liked by the base of the party...the RINO's love him, as do elitist "liberal" snob hedge fund managers believe it or not.

Mitt wins among the base just to relieve the national embarrassment for all, that is...this thing called Obama.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:16 | Link to Comment Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Take a trip to the Bizarro planet and all will be revealed.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:36 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

I like Mitt's hair and that winning smile. I'd like to give him a hug but I'm not a Republican or a Mormon.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 15:50 | Link to Comment Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Ron Paul supporters and paleo-conservatives don't like Romney at all.  And why should they like a FED-supporting, universal health-care promoting, gun grabbing ex Governor from Massachusetts?

I'm writing in Ron Paul.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:54 | Link to Comment Ralph Spoilsport
Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:18 | Link to Comment Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Pensyltuckians are a bit slow, but I believe they finally were able to comprehend the "clinging to their bible and guns" insult.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:53 | Link to Comment phoolish
phoolish's picture

No Matter What Happens, the Bernank's Printer is going to be going into hyper-drive.

 

 

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:54 | Link to Comment Bob
Bob's picture

I doubt there will be a replay of 2000.  Judging by the Ohio electronic vote fraud of 2004 and the preferences of those who control the machines, things should run teflon-smooth this year:

http://truth-out.org/news/item/12204-does-the-romney-family-now-own-your...

It's a good thing that hanging chad problem got solved. 

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:55 | Link to Comment earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

Contingency plans?

 

Cancel the elections, burn the Constitution, and deploy the DHS storm troops.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:19 | Link to Comment LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

They just graduated the first class of brown shirts

Federal Government Graduates First Class of Homeland Youths

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 20:17 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

I suspect that they have little in the way of tactical training such as a SWAT team would have. If so, they will be easily bloodied by experienced gun owners. At least now we know who'll be getting all those hollow-point rounds.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:56 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Bush/Gore elections only happen every 100 years.  It won't be like that.  But SHTF after the election, is certain.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:14 | Link to Comment wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

Barring any October Surprise the increasingly desperate Obama Admin may try to pull out of its ass, I think Obama gets whipped fairly decisively. The amount of sheeple rioting in the streets afterward will depend on the margin of said victory.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:37 | Link to Comment Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

I hope there is rioting in the streets. That way we'll get see how good the aim is of the DHS sturmabteilung.

We can't let large ammo purchases go to waste.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:57 | Link to Comment verum quod lies
verum quod lies's picture

“Fiscal cliff” is code for refusing to balance the damn budget; which, incidentally, must be done and the longer we wait the worse Willie Coyote/USA will impact. I’m sick of hearing about the f_ing “fiscal cliff” and the need to be “bipartisan” about it.

 

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:57 | Link to Comment Lukacko
Lukacko's picture

I don't think they realize how many mormons live in Arizona.  Pretty sure that's a solid for Romney.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:08 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

You think there are more mormons than hispanics?  I don't know if I would bet on that.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:38 | Link to Comment Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Maybe they're hispanic mormons and they account for all the undecideds.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:00 | Link to Comment tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Looks like the free Obama phones and Mc Donalds coupons are going to be mailed out to residents in Mich, IA,NH,FL,PA,CO,NV,VA,WI and OH. Amazing what a Big Mac and a few minutes to your crack dealer will buy these days...

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:07 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Are all the blue states broke?  Couldn't be coincidence could it?

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:07 | Link to Comment ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Intrade does not matter until the day after the election....

 

Just because people are willing to put their money where their beliefs are does not mean they are even close to being right.

 

 

 

 

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:10 | Link to Comment thesecondslowes...
thesecondslowestantelope's picture

Can you guys lighten up a little?   You have plenty of matches to play with before getting over the top...

 

just saying

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:10 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

there are no black swans when everybody is bracing for one.........ever........this fiscal cliff is nothing more than a ruse to condition the masses into believing that more debt is necessary.....break out the credit cards people.....its the patriotic thing to do...........

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:15 | Link to Comment ssp2s
ssp2s's picture

I've followed Intrade over several elections, and IMHO a 65% probability with 19 days before the election really translates into a 50% probability.  I would say that the probability has to hit 75%-80% (with this many days before the election) before it has any predictive quality.  The same goes for a state-wide election as well, so, from an electoral college perspective, it seems fair to say that Intrade isn't predicting anything at this point.  Even up to the Friday before the election, if the probability is below 75%-80%, then it might as well be 50%.

I've also observed that the state results on Intrade will tell before the national numbers.  In other words, if you are willing to track Intrade on a state basis, you probably will spot the winner before the nation-wide number shows it.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:25 | Link to Comment Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

Goldman wants Romney and the chaos that will go with it.  What Goldy wants, Goldy gets.

Forget DC, forget polls, forget the song and dance routines.  The banks are calling the shots in the next few weeks, and everyone will dance to their tune.

The Second American Revolution, unfolding now in a gerrymandered district near you.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:26 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

The Obamaphone ghetto buses have been bringing people to the early voting polling locations nonstop in Ohio.

I am expecting at least 10 million more black votes for Obama, than blacks that actually live in Ohio. They have already registered more voters than actually live in Summit and Cuyahoga county.

Tyrone's votin at least 20 times fo Obama. Gots to get him dat Obama car, dat Obama house, dat Obama card dat pays fo evythin.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:26 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

EVERYBODY GOT OBAMAFONE!!!!!!!!

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 19:09 | Link to Comment Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

seriously people, get a grip - even if every "black" person voted for Obama, they still only represent about 13% of US population!

then subtract everyone under 21, and all the felons disqualified. . . you aren't getting a landslide vote for "the black man" without finding some NON-BLACK votes, even if they continue to fake the numbers via Diebold.

either use your mind, or admit you can't.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:28 | Link to Comment Jam Akin
Jam Akin's picture

Avert gridlock electoral catastrophe. Write in: Corzine for President!

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:57 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

most sheeple are fully aware of o'bami's campaign pioneering prowness... a blazing trail of six-years running for eight years of non-stop campaign stomping and stumping! why 8 years? he's never stopped running for reelection, period! has he?

once elected he had two [dem's controlled congress] years to implement promised programs, but sat on his ass and did nothing while the 99% burned-n-hell!

obamacare is a drop-dead... soon-too-be-failure... of massive 'tbtf' proportions! but, did he listen to the 99% who asked for, an preferred a 'single-payer-healthcare program' administered by 'all' individual states? no! kinda like a democratic republic without a constitution? but wait, he's almost got us their... just four[4] more years mr putin?

as i said, the sheeple are not blind, even though the shepherds surely are. this is why i fully endorse romney... 99%!

if he fails in 4 years, throw em out and press the reset bottom... quite simple, and a lot less painless.

remember this... obami has never once kept one substantial campaign promise... but, too the contrary, has gone in quite the opposite direction.

shredding our constitution, bill-o-rights, bankrupting our country by adding ~ $5tn. debt, keeping the parasitic afghanistan [destroyers of empires is no misnomer?] quagmire alive at ~$100bn annual cost, blackballing the 'keystone pipeline', and giving more drilling and land permits to foreign entities than to our own bonafide u.s. corporations!  there's a litany more of misdeeds[?] not to forget his trusted sheriff AG Holder[upper]? mr. fast and definitely furious non-inquisitioner? 

 polarization is all he's good for... a stagnant dripped-dried stalagmite fossil of neo-americna stove-top political hat tricks[?]! living in a mindless cave... a fortress'd white-house-utopia of hope and change? for what? til the fairies and unicorn come home to ruse on the 99% salted carrion hung out to dry on 33 liberty hill! soon to be renamed, 'Bambi's Way'?

jmo  

great read and thankyou tyler  :-))

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 15:31 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

earleflorida,

remember this... obami has never once kept one substantial campaign promise... but, too the contrary, has gone in quite the opposite direction.

Yes he has, He said HE would FUNDAMENTALLY change America.

So far hell yes, and for the absolute worst,since Wilson, and FDR.

The wedding ring he wears, has Arabic lettering/symbols on it, saying "Allah Is Great".

NO CHRISTIAN would dare wear that.

He wore it prior to wedding Mochelle, and she put it on his hand when they wed.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 19:12 | Link to Comment Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

seriously cannot wait until whiter-than-white Mittney gets the hot seat, and all the Christian heads explode from the dissonance.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 19:20 | Link to Comment Precious
Precious's picture

Whatever turns you on dude.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:37 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

Romney needs Ohio or PA, Florida, Virginia, and Nevada to win.

Virginia is probably a lock for Romney. There are a lot more actual voters for Romney in Ohio, but there are more than enough fake black votes to cancel most of them out.

Michelle "I gots yo Obamaphone" Obama has been faking votes in Ohio and Michigan for the past month. Oh, you already voted, that's OK just cast another "provisional" ballot. We'll make sure it doesn't get put in the counted pile.

I'm sure Harry Reid is loading boxes pre-punched with Obama in Nevada.

20%+ of the votes for Obama are about as real as the bank's earnings reports.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 18:43 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

We've got our double voters down here in Florida.

Snow birds that vote up north and here,mostly dems from Ney York,New Jersey.

Pulled one guy about four years ago, said he was justified because he pays property taxes

here.Democrat of course.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 13:44 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

The more chaos and the more gridlock there is, the better.

This whole bubble corrupt clusterfuck of a market and economy need to go down! The sooner the better.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:06 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

I think there is a near 100% certainty that this election will be challenged in the courts.

Personally, I think Romney will be in the lead and it's likely going to be real close. Obama will challenge the outcome with more than likely a couple of states needing to do a recount by there own laws. Remember, the loser can decide to challenge the outcome or not. Does anyone think Obama would just throw in the towel and not ask for numerous recounts?

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 18:01 | Link to Comment Jam Akin
Jam Akin's picture

Sure, he may be content to go straight to the land of $100k speaking fees while leaving Willard holding the economic collapse bag.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:17 | Link to Comment Sigep0612
Sigep0612's picture

Geez...if Obama gets beat will he, in the days befroe he leaves office, issue Executive Orders to 1) Pardon OJ  2) Require the PGA to give him his players card without attending Q-School  3)  Start the implementation of ObamaCare immediately 4) Require the Treasury to use the Consulting Services of Madoff, Sandusky, & Corzine.  4) Pardon Jon Corzine   5) Heal Jessie Jackson Jr.  6) Change the Real Estate Title of ownership of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave from the people of the United States of America to Michelle Obama.  7) Create his own Televison Network with left over funds from his re-election campaign so that he can begin his 2016 election campaign.   8) Pardon Rob Blogoevoich  9)  Purchase the Costa Concordia for scrap value  10) Require DoubleDay to take a $200M loan from the Federal Government with the stipulation that said loan will be paid to one former President on January 22,2013 as an advance for his 3rd autobiography that will be written at a future point in time.   

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:22 | Link to Comment william114085
william114085's picture

If there is a massive crash under romney, it will be blamed on capitalism, if there is a massive crash under obama, it will be blamed on socialism.  

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:27 | Link to Comment loveyajimbo
loveyajimbo's picture

I hear Soros owns the company that provides the counting machines... ah well... the blacks will riot if BO wins, and riot if he loses... dey loves ta shake up whitey... it may be the newest muslim holiday...

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:45 | Link to Comment Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

Those that vote do not count.  Those that count the vote count.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 15:19 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

I hear Soros owns the company that provides the counting machines... ah well... the blacks will riot if BO wins, and riot if he loses... dey loves ta shake up whitey... it may be the newest muslim holiday...

 

Let the dumb bastards riot................and burn whatever they want, we KNOW who the real RACISTS are and it ain't Whitey.

They have tweeted murder/assassination threats by the hundreds.My $ says not a ONE will do time over it.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 14:42 | Link to Comment Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

Its cute how this article pretends that the economic collapse is avoidable.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 21:49 | Link to Comment are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

I'm impressed the real economic collapse has been repeatedly postponed so many times now.  But I know of no sober economist who discents on fiat collapse eventually.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 13:07 | Link to Comment toomanyfakecons...
toomanyfakeconservatives's picture

Economic Collapse... depends what you mean by that.

 

1. Mass awakening to the fraud and MASS ARRESTS for the monetary treasonists... http://tinyurl.com/cd5cyjo/

2. Debt repudiated, FED and BIS legally dismantled and sold for scrap.

3. Federal Reserve Note outlawed, total reset and revaluation with Constitutionally-legitimate Treasury Notes.

 

That doesn't sound like collapse to me.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 15:49 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

Down Vote Bama Bitch.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 17:25 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

Another MAIN reason Obama has to go, is Agenda 21, little known fact,if 60% of the UN ratifies it, it becomes Intl treaty law, and if the POTUS signs that, it end arounds the Senate, and becomes the law of the land.

Obama will sign it in a heartbeat,(we lose the 2nd) Romulus will not sign it,even if he wants to,or he's dead meat,and his entire house is,filled with the Pox.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 17:55 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

now that's 'good digging', DosZap

:-))

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 18:47 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

wow... ya got my mind goin, DosZap?

i forgot about the u.n. [nwo police[[ so much bullshit goin down, hard to keep up with the sodomizers cartel]... but, trying my best, not to steal your thunder... i'd rather add a few lighting strikes to your enlightening comment at our now defunct gov't. doorstep of shame!

http://www.conservative-daily.com/2012/07/16/iran-and-the-u-n-are-now-ma...

cheers  ;-))

 

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 19:30 | Link to Comment Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

oh FFS,

From President George HW Bush's news conference in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil June 13, 1992:

"We've signed a climate convention. We've asked others to join us in presenting action plans for the implementation of the climate convention. We've won agreement on forest principles. We found a warm reception among the G - 7 and many developing countries to our Forests for the Future initiative. Many U.S. proposals on oceans and public participation on the importance of economic instruments and free markets were included in this mammoth Agenda 21 document and the Rio Declaration.

http://www.democratsagainstunagenda21.com/1/post/2012/10/pres-george-hw-...

 

Republican Party Officially Embraces ‘Garbage’ Agenda 21 Conspiracy Theories As Its National Platform

 

If you want to understand just how extreme and conspiratorial many in the “mainstream” Republican party have become, look no further than a resolution on Agenda 21 passed quietly in January.

Agenda 21 is a completely non-binding international framework for sustainability passed in 1992 at the Rio Earth Summit. The framework, which sets out very loose aspirational goals for making communities more efficient and less carbon-intensive, was signed by then President George H.W. Bush and later upheld by Presidents Bill Clinton and President George W. Bush.

Since the framework was adopted, right-wing conspiracy theorists have pushed bizarre theories about Agenda 21 being a central tool for the United Nations to create a one-world government and take away the rights of local property owners. In recent years, elevated by the megaphone of extreme pundits like Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh, these conspiracies made their way into mainstream politics. Today, Agenda 21ers — many affiliated with the Tea Party and the John Birch Society — are peddling fears about Agenda 21 in order to stop basic efficiency and renewable energy programs on the state level.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/15/523931/republican-party-offi...

I don't vote, but I do pay attention to what "politics" dumps on us all as each "side" ramps up the agenda - when will people get it throught their Beck-Limbaugh'd minds that BOTH teams play for the same side???

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 08:45 | Link to Comment AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

If you don't vote, it doesn't matter what you think.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 18:29 | Link to Comment foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

If obama wins, he'll get nothing from the republican congress but impeachement hearings. Obamaphone people better start lookin for a job.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 19:38 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

Cathartes Aura

Your argument is not with me, try it on Dick Morris.( he does know a bit more than an avg Joe).

 

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 20:44 | Link to Comment Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

DZ,

I'm not "arguing" anything more than the obvious - no sides, no difference in parties beyond superficial clown shoe size.  I genuinely hope Mittens the Mormon Freemason gets to play prezzydent soon, and gets all those who believe he can "make a difference" to watch his reality show in action.

I've no idea who "Dick Morris" is, nor do I care.  and I didn't downvote you.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 01:19 | Link to Comment Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

We have already reached the point where more than half the people will probably not vote. I surely would NOT trust the voting machines! The god damn system is so totally screwed up that there is nobody to vote for, that is worth voting for. The objective reality appears to me to be the "choice" is either vote against whomever you believe is the worst one, or do not bother to vote. Either way, a dominant minority will have control of the power of government, to abuse against everyone else!

Flocks of Black Swans!

Multiple Megadisasters.

I believe it will not merely one from column A, and one from column B, happening at the same time, but many others, from even more columns that list possible disasters, all adding up together.  Of course, the flip side of this is that it will provoke more creative thinking than ever before too! There are a whole bunch of converging factors, beyond human control, or interdependent within ourselves, which ALL appear to be ganging up at the same time, so that civilization is going crazy, while nature is going nuts. ... Due to a wide range of wild sources of futurological speculation, which surprisingly converge, in my view, I tend to believe that a whole host of things which should be very rare events, and therefore, not happen within a normal human life time, ARE GOING TO BE HAPPENING WITHIN OUR LITTLE LIFE TIMES!

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 13:43 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

OBAMA WINS.

...says prediction markets.

http://stks.co/gESo

These daily charts are still breaking down & overdue sell off expected after Obama victory: SPX / CRUDE / COPPER / GOLD / SILVER / EURUSD / AUDUSD

USD will rally.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!