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"The Clock Is Running, The Cash Is Almost Gone And Make-Believe Will No Longer Suffice"

Tyler Durden's picture


From Mark Grant, author of Out Of The Box

This is the piece I wrote on Friday afternoon.

“I would say that we have entered the crisis stage of Europe now. We have a stand-off between France and the southern nations, the troubled countries, in one corner and Germany, Austria, Finland and the Netherlands in the other. The last summit yielded nothing and worse than nothing because the two camps are worlds apart and sharply divided. They couldn't agree on the banking supervision issue. They have no agreed upon path for Spain, for Greece, for Cyprus, for Ireland or for Portugal. Germany has drawn a line in the concrete concerning legacy sovereign issues, legacy bank issues and Ms. Merkel has stated quite dramatically that Germany will not allow the new ESM to be used for old problems and that the individual nations will have to foot the bill for them. The "Muddle" is over in my opinion and the "Crisis" has now begun. The long, long road of "put it off" has reached its conclusion and there is no agreement and no compromise on how to proceed. We have finally reached the "Danger Zone" and I advise you to note the change!”

Having had any number of questions since I wrote this I thought that it might be helpful to provide some further explanation. It is really a question of translation and some definition of “political-speak” because all of the wrangling in Europe now can get quite confusing and literal translations can lead you to incorrect conclusions.  In Europe the old adage is firmly in play; “appearances can be deceiving.”

Grant’s Dictionary

Let’s start with the bank supervisor. Germany said no money for the banks without a European supervisor for the banks. France, Spain and the rest responded by saying fine then let’s have a bank supervisor in place and functioning by January 2013. The German response was not so fast and maybe by 2014 and maybe the ECB is not the right instrument and maybe not for all of the banks. On the surface you might think that these points are all distinct and separate but if you do; you are incorrect. The translation here is that Germany does not want to fund the European banks and so has set up a road block, a diversion, to stand in between “we will not fund the banks directly” and the desires of France and the rest who want a harmonized Europe where every country pays for everything for all of them; a socialized Europe. You see, the diversion is the bank supervisor and it allows Germany to thwart the desires of the needy countries without having to address the problem directly. It is a head fake and an effective one and it is just one of the instances where we are getting a quite clear Northern European response; “We will not fund.”

Did you think that Germany, Austria and the rest were going to just come right out and say, “We will not fund?” This is not the Simpsons you know and the politicians in Europe, think of them what you like, are not quite that stupid. As a matter of fact the only time the Germans have come right out and said “Nein” was concerning Eurobonds and that is because the stigma attached to them in Germany is so great that any German allowance of them would probably topple the government. Consequently, as in the case of the ECB and the “limitless” speech of Mr. Draghi; it is only limitless if the condition of EU approval is met and so if the condition never happens then there is no ECB bond buying at all. In each case there is a condition and Germany can manipulate the condition at will which prevents or stops the ECB bond purchasing or the direct funding of the European banks.

Please note that on the opposite side of the fence that the same type of strategy is in place. France, Spain, Italy, Cyprus and Greece are not going to come out and say, “We want the Germans to pick up the check for the financial difficulties of our countries” so that ask for Eurobonds, direct bank recapitalization, lines of credit from the ECB, bond buying by the ECB of their sovereign debt and all manner of things which are structured and presented to get Germany, the Netherlands, Finland et al to pay for their shortcomings. “More Europe” in the troubled countries means that Germany and her amigos should foot the bill for the Continent while “More Europe” in the fiscally sound countries means control and oversight and domination if you will as exemplified by Ms. Merkel’s proposal that there be one central European approval office for all of the national budgets in Europe. A concept quickly rejected by France, Britain and a host of other countries. Think of a very expensive mid-day meal; lunch is over and everyone wants everyone else to pick up the check and so they sit there and politely banter and try to contrive schemes so that it will be anyone but them. The actuality is that the numbers have grown so large, the meal has become so expensive, that no one can pick up the bill without quite severe consequences.

Let’s focus on Greece for a moment. In two or three weeks Greece will run out of money. We have already done the “Public Sector Involvement” trick and the last bit of magic was the ECB handing money to the Greek banks who then bought private sovereign debt issued by Greece, got the bonds, then pledged the bonds back to the ECB and got their money back. This is how they did the short term funding of Greece while everyone winked and blinked and went on about their business. The actual truth is; a form of Eurobonds was used, just under the letterhead of the European Central Bank. Now however, the IMF has said they will not fund as Greece couldn’t pay the money she owes unless the goddess Hera shows up with some loot. The IMF has shorted the fuse box and they want the EU or the ECB to take an “Official Sector Involvement” hit which you may translate into “Debt Forgiveness” which would probably be the end of the governments in more than one Northern European nation. Europe then is faced with writing off the debt of Greece, never mind the fancy words, or having the ECB take the hit which would mean a recapitalization of the ECB as they only have $18 billion of paid-in capital or the IMF refusing to fund the next tranche of Greek aid which means that the European Stabilization Funds would have to pick up the bill and that local politics may collapse without the IMF’s participation.

In the case of Spain it is not Mr. Rajoy “assessing the situation” but a very concentrated effort to get “Euros for Nothing and Conchitas for Free.” Not only does Spain have several of its integral regions calling for succession but it has a regional debt problem exceeding $50 billion in my estimation and a bank problem that is several multiples of that. The Oliver Wyman bank stress tests had all of the validity of a three toed sloth residing in your living room as there was no verification, no audits and nothing but garbage pressed into the shredding machine and so “garbage in is garbage out” and let’s not deceive ourselves that it was anything else. Once again, one more time, we have an example of a country trying to get anyone else, everyone else, to pick up the bill because they cannot afford it. Germany, in the meantime, says that Spain does not need the money and so the bills go unpaid and the crisis worsens.

 “As long as there are individual national budgets, I regard the assumption of joint liability as inappropriate and from our point of view this isn’t up for debate...The Spanish government will be liable for paying back the loans to recapitalize its banks. Plans to give the Euro rescue fund the power to inject cash directly into banks won’t be made retroactive.”

                 -German Chancellor Merkel

Here is the issue of legacy liabilities. Here Germany has been fairly clear. The new ESM fund will not pick up the check and it is up to each country to pay for their own past problems. You may translate this piece of jargon into a “No” to Ireland that the ESM will not pick up the bill for the Irish banks and the same response for Spain. This new German definition puts Portugal, Greece, Spain and Ireland back at square one and effectively closes the door on any further negotiations. While all of this wrangling continues the tone at the summit was no longer the nicey-nice repartee of past meetings. Cyprus needs money, Spain needs money, Portugal probably needs more money and Greece is just about out of money. The summit was held, the meeting is over and the worth of any accomplishments is about at Zero as the only agreement was a plan to have a plan to deal with bank supervision. This is not an inch forward, this is not a millimeter forward; this is quicksand where they are all stuck as both money and time run out as the Socialists scream for alms while the landed gentry, utilizing head fakes and other polite deceptions, refuse to provide it. The clock is running, the cash is almost gone and make-believe will no longer suffice. The crisis phase, in my opinion, has been entered.

“Heh, heh, heh! Lisa! Vampires are make-believe... like elves, gremlins and Eskimos.”
             -Homer Simpson


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Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:05 | 2906285 falak pema
falak pema's picture

The crisis phase, in my opinion, has been entered....

Based on your past posts the crisis phase should now be over and the Euro bird dead and buried.

You'd make a good song n dance team with Graham Summers on Euro winter. "Those autumn leaves..."

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:10 | 2906295 Popo
Popo's picture

Everything's on life support until the US elections are over.   After that the next phase will officially begin.  The question I have is this:   How will the public rapidly be brought on board to the "crisis" mindset?    Months of "financial recovery" propaganda will have to be undone rapidly, in order to quickly garner public support for "crisis measures". 

My guess is we'll probably witness a massive market dislocation, or a major geopolitical event (involving Americans) in early to mid November.   That should set the stage for the Iran war and/or emergency monetary/fiscal controls of some sort.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:13 | 2906299 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture


hedge accordingly.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:35 | 2906311 Popo
Popo's picture

While this might seem like good news, forgive me for seeing something more ominous and inexplicable:

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 12:47 | 2906460 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

For the most reasonable explanation investigate the investors in the company providing the new machines. I'm just guessing but I'll bet you find some connected names.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 15:54 | 2906714 cossack55
cossack55's picture

How about former DHS chief OberGruppenFurher Chertoff. Fuckin' shill. Looks like skeletor too.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 13:15 | 2906509 Jake88
Jake88's picture

do you care to share it with us? what is so ominous behind the moving of body scanners?

Sun, 10/21/2012 - 16:53 | 2908255 dugorama
dugorama's picture

sure.  Michael chertoff was a Bush appointee head of DHS until he left through the revolving door to sell his former agency billions of dollars worth of body scanners.  These scanners have never caught anyone or anything.  They have never been tested for safety.  Indeed, the "backscatter" machines work by spraying (scattering) the same amount of radiation the dentist uses in a focused way.  In the dentist's office, of course, everyone hides behind lead shields.  The poor SOBs working for the TSA just stand next to the machines unshielded and get zapped over and over all day long.  Moving them to the sticks means that Chertoff can sell V2.0 to the big airports.  When you travel to Europe you'll notice that while all the airports do have the machines - because we required that of them - no one is using them.  Germany has prohibited them on safety grounds.  Amsterdam's aren't even plugged in.  But we're buying more of them, making former DHS folk rich.  Feel better /safer now?

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 16:13 | 2906738 OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

Sure, sure, EUR sucks. Problem is USD is sucking worse so EUR levitates at 1.30. Something shiny probably sucks least.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 18:55 | 2907010 drbill
drbill's picture

In other words, which turd sinks the fastest?

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 13:41 | 2906545 toomanyfakecons...
toomanyfakeconservatives's picture

Set the stage for war with Iran and/or emergency monetary/fiscal controls?


The struggle today is a much deeper one. Nations from around the globe have had enough of our shit and they want their stolen gold back that was "put on deposit" with the FED and BIS. We could very easily see the sudden end of Bretton Woods gold dollar-cum-petro dollar monetary system when the 100+ nation BRICs alliance cuts ties with the dollar and/or enforces multi-trillion dollar liens against the FED and BIS. All bets are then off as there will be a scramble to either a) arrest the treasonous monetary traitors and right the ship, or b) launch the missiles.

Sun, 10/21/2012 - 10:31 | 2907624 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

No way. The US Dollar is backed by the US nuclear arsenal.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 20:36 | 2907132 goldenbuddha454
goldenbuddha454's picture

Right on target with that analysis.  I believe exactly what you've said will happen.  Throw in the lovely fiscal cliff in the U.S.  We could see some amazing gyrations in the markets.  S&P 650, Dow 9500ish

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 08:36 | 3118133 Jeelan
Jeelan's picture

I believe exactly what you've said will happen.
Throw in the lovely fiscal cliff in the U.S.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:24 | 2906326 Daily Bail
Daily Bail's picture

This is brilliant, for anyone who hasn't seen it.

HOLY SHIT: Barclays Got Punked

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:38 | 2906364 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

That was really great!  Highly recommended!

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:43 | 2906375 NewWorldOrange
NewWorldOrange's picture

Awesome. Thanks;)

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 19:58 | 2907089 forexskin
forexskin's picture

pure gold - the cockroaches aren't so bold in the sunlight.

Sun, 10/21/2012 - 12:48 | 2907850 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

Brave people to do something like that. I couldn't do it. I would barf and my knees would shake.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 12:24 | 2906430 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

falak pema, you certainly have the number of Mark 'jack in the box' Grant

Grant is one of those Americans totally fooled by European rhetoric, Mark has no friggin' clue what is going on here

He thinks Germany etc are 'non-troubled' countries, when they are on the hook for already maybe € 2 trillion in sunken risk costs in the scheme of lending to Greece Spain etc

And Grant ignores how Merkel has already approved paying more money to Greece despite their not fulfilling nearly all of the 'conditions'

As you say, Mark Grant was long ago predicting the 'eurocalypse' collapse that should have happened long before now, along with Graham Summers (who admitted he was wrong) and also Reggie Middleton

Now Mark is claiming it will happen after America's election farce upcoming


German banks, insurers and pension funds are all on the hook ... as some ZeroHedge articles made clear long ago - Germans are not half as rich as Mark Grant thinks they are, they're loaded up with bad debt too

Sure Germans and the north will play the pretend-stalling game, to hide from their own people the fragility of the German - northern banks ... but ultimately it's 'QE to infinity' to keep the German bank euro-ponzi afloat along with everything else

Something may well break in Europe in coming months, but it will likely be from local blow-ups resulting from the brutalisation in the Mediterranean countries ... and Germany will be nailed hard in the firestorm too

Sun, 10/21/2012 - 10:18 | 2907610 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

Secession and Civil War is the endgame. The EU will be transformed into a centralized empire when it goes through its own 1861-style event. Until then, the ECB will do enough QE and ELA to keep the system intact.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 12:40 | 2906450 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Just another Euro-basher masturbating over the PIIGS to fill in until Nov 6th.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 14:08 | 2906581 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

Since the entire system first became privatized fiat money-as-debt, the crisis was inevitable. Structural debt slavery automatically had to runaway to become debt insanity. The crisis was built into the foundations of the privatized fractional reserve fiat money-as-debt system. It was always a Ponzi scheme, since the banksters first were able, through the application of the methods of organized crime, to get governments to give away the power to make money out of nothing, from the people, to those banksters. The creation of these debt engines were the social equivalent of the steam engines. There was an industrial revolution in the social pyramid system, starting with the first central bank in Holland, that then spread to the Bank of England, then went wildly up and down in France, and was fought over through long struggles in the USA, until finally the international banksters took back control of the USA in 1913. Everything since then has been an automatic runaway of that social pyramid system, grand financial Ponzi Scheme on Steroids, backed by the power of the government of the USA. Always, the source of this runaway fraudulent financial accounting system was the way that sovereign power passed laws to force the payment of taxes in that fiat money. Always, the abilities of the banksters to control their puppet politicians, and wipe out their opposition, enabled the power of governments to define legal tender in ways that legalized counterfeiting by private banksters, which thereby transformed the crazy cult of fiat money into a state religion.

Under the power of the USA, and various international organizations set up by the banksters, that system was able to conquer almost the whole world. Most of history for the last few Centuries, as well as the last few years, has been the banksters consolidating their power to create money out of nothing, as debts, while governments forced everyone to respect that faith based money as the state religion. The weapons of NATO have been backing up the international banksters frauds, by wiping out any countries that would not agree to stay within the established systems. Various other levels of economic hit men have been working on other levels, in other countries, to keep the established systems going.

The history of the European Union has been the banksters attempting to consolidate their grip over European countries, as a whole. The irony is the speed with which the Euro has come, and already arrived at debt insanity, by its numbers. It reminds me of how fast the French, under John Law, originally did the same thing, while the British, and the Anglo-American (Zionist) world plodded along their path of global empire, dollar imperialism, etc., through phases such as the earlier gradual abolishment of silver money, then gold backed money, until it went from paper fraud, backed by gunpowder, to electronic fiat money fraud, backed by atomic bombs. Anyway, it was always a runaway money/murder system, where the best placed covert death controlling murder systems, operated by the biggest gangsters, the banksters, were able to apply their methods of organized crime, to take control of governments, to use the power of those governments to create the system of privatized fiat money-as-debt, which inherently has to exponentially create more and more debts, or else it collapses instead, and then tends to seriously collapse into depressions, and then wars, before it can be rebuilt for its next turn around that vicious cycle. The ability to make the money supply out of nothing, controlled by a tiny elite, enables them to drive those cycles of booms and busts, and to time those so that they benefit both on the way up, and then on the way down too. However, each time, it gets bigger, with bubble economics blowing bigger bubbles that pop more spectacularly than the time before.

The situation in the USA is different than in Europe, since the USA has been under privatized central bank control since 1913, and the USA was able to abolish silver money since before then, and abandon any limit to being attached to gold since 1971, whereupon the US dollar was able to enforce itself to become the petrodollar. Meanwhile, the Euro is barely a decade old. The European Union is not yet fully united. Therefore, driving through the Ponzi scheme of centralized fiat money-as-debt in Europe has already, relatively rapidly, become untenable.  The numbers in the USA are just as insane out of control doubling of debts, on an exponential ride, since 1970s until now. However, the US dollar, as the world's reserve currency, was also backed by an abundance of weapons of mass destruction, and its psychotic natural security state, which was forced to stay united since the American civil war! Meanwhile, the unity of the European Union is much more problematic, especially when the FINANCIAL NUMBERS ARE ALREADY INSANE.

As with all Ponzi Schemes, the first in and the first out do that best, while those who are last get wiped out. The Euro is a Ponzi Scheme which has revealed itself with stunning alacrity. ... There was never any doubt that we already passed the point previously where The crisis phase, in my opinion, has been entered. ... After one understands that that monetary system IS a Ponzi Scheme, then, like all pyramid schemes, it MUST eventually collapse. The only question is how long until it does, and that depends upon confidence (and that confidence is really much rougher, since the politics behind it can become hard ball, as it especially did during the history of the USA).

The privatized, fiat money-as-debt pyramid scheme is structurally built in such a way that its design is guaranteed to eventually collapse. It was always the runaway triumph of fraud, backed by force, BUT the force has a limit to how long it can maintain the "confidence" in the fraud. That fundamentally fraudulent financial system was always huge lies, backed by lots of violence, which innately has that problem that everything is being controlled via dishonesty and deceits. Thus the paradox of final failure from too much "success" through triumphant runaway fraud.  The primarily American powered, globalized electronic fiat money fraud, backed by atomic bombs, has been able to cruise on autopilot through the stratosphere, and into outer space. Their numbers, since they are the result of runaway triumphant frauds, astronomically amplified, have produced a real world that looks more like a cartoon, than anything that makes common sense.

Meanwhile, the banksters were working through their conspiracy to consolidate their control over Europe as a whole, by integrating the countries which they already more or less controlled, into an irreversible union. That European Union took expression through the Euro barely a decade ago. The economic numbers rapidly became more and more unbalanced. Many countries that were integrated into Europe automatically and rapidly went through processes of debt slavery to debt insanity. Now the European Union is being put to the test. I REPEAT THAT THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE NUMBERS ARE ALREADY INSANE! The economic problems in many parts of Europe have already gone from debt slavery to debt insanity. The countries which are not yet at the debt insanity levels, with respect to their own numbers, are being asked to embrace the overall debt insanity of the European Union as a whole. IF Germany finds it politically impossible to commit itself to THAT European Union, then The crisis phase, in my opinion, has been entered. ...

In my opinion, practically nobody understands this, since almost nobody is able and willing to perceive the fundamentals that money is backed by murder. The international banksters have succeeded in taking over state governments so totally, through their application of the principles and methods of organized crime, in order to achieve making their privatized fiat money-as-debt system become the ubiquitous state religion, that almost nobody ever talks about that, nor understands it, in the mass media, or in the general public consciousness. The politicians are mostly puppets, performing according to the puppet masters, for an audience that mostly can not see, or does not want to see, the history of the strings being pulled. Moreover, the general public is too childish, and the controlled opposition far too reactionary, for there to be any genuine solutions being offered.

As I have said several times, in many of my bla, bla, blah posts on Zero Hedge for a couple months, I present the Fringe Cubed position regarding these problems. There is no way to solve these problems, unless one understands them. However, understanding them is profoundly disturbing, since the debt controls depend on the death controls. There is no way to change the money system, without changing the murder system. The covert murder system, within the general system of triumphant organized crime, is what took control of the sovereign governments, to enable these runaway debt insanity situations to develop. Those things have reached the point when doubling those debts yet again has become such an outrageous proposition, that not enough Germans, and other countries which are not yet drowning under insane levels of unrepayable debts, are willing to jump in the deep end to try to save those who are already going down for the third time, and are uselessly clutching at straws while doing so.

There are plenty of creative alternatives. However, there must be a profound paradigm shift in our political science before those could be implemented ... Meanwhile, the preposterous impossible debts, which have no solutions within the established systems except to create bigger debts, owed by more people, are reaching their breaking points The crisis phase, in my opinion, has been entered. ...

There is no historical precedent to understand what happens when a social pyramid system is amplified to astronomical sizes! However, IT IS a pyramid scheme, which requires always more and more debts, in order to keep going, and yet, the level of those debts has ALREADY become insane numbers in many European countries, and those who are not yet there are having a more and more difficult time making the decision that that is what they should continue to do! The privatized fiat money-as-debt system is toxic from the moment it starts! It is already automatically in its crisis phase, where it always has to grow, and make more and more debts, but the world is not infinite, and endless exponential growth is absolutely impossible. Therefore, that system MUST e-v-e-n-t-u-a-l-l-y collapse === ???

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 16:07 | 2906726 bilejones
bilejones's picture

"The Spanish government will be liable for paying back the loans to recapitalize its banks"


And who will be responsible for paying back the loans to capitalize the French banks losses due to Spanish debt?

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 16:33 | 2906776 CDSMonkey
CDSMonkey's picture

This isn't even his most bearish piece. Guess he is hoping no one who read in August or September remembers?

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:05 | 2906286 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Further explanation?

About what?  We here in Europe are fucked Mark, plain and simple.  And the shitheads who put us here wont listen to ryhme nor reason from us plebs.  Civil war is a small word of what is going to kick off over here, as you see, you cannot overule the majority all of the time, as at some point, the majority will pull first.  The super duper blokes at the top wont take what we have to say at all, so just sit back and watch what happens when they ignore the populations will.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 13:28 | 2906526 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Hmm, so just WHAT are the Ignorati gonna do?  Confiscate all of TPTB's euros?  How is a transfer of paper from one group to the other gonna make ANYONE prosperous?  (It's just paper!)

Sun, 10/21/2012 - 10:09 | 2907597 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

So tell us. When will the EU have a Secession, followed by the EU's own Fort Sumter moment?

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:10 | 2906292 ak_khanna
ak_khanna's picture

Countries around the world are taking on more debt without any fruitful attempts to curb their expenditures. This has resulted in a much more fragile and artificially held up financial system which is on a much shaky ground than it was in 2008. In 2008 companies failed due to excessive leverage and debt and now countries are likely to default because they took on the same bad debt on themselves so that the bankers can continue to gamble in the commodity, stock, bond and currency markets with other people's money and enjoy ever increasing bonuses and pay packages for themselves.

A single currency for an economy as strong as Germany on one hand and relatively weaker economies like Greece or Ireland on the other is not sustainable in the long run. The idea of the stronger countries in the Euro zone to keep on bailing out the weaker ones repeatedly will be a difficult one to sell to the citizens of the economically stronger countries. Their is no practical way to save the Euro, the only thing that the politicians can do is to lavishly spend tax payers money towards bailouts which creates a much bigger crises a few months down the line but does not solve anything.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 13:00 | 2906480 falak pema
falak pema's picture

the euro is overfragile granted; but so are USD and the £. Its all linked so the whole house of cards comes down in banksta pain. 

Mr Grant needs a good implant in his mind to change the slope of the slant of his doodle di da.

Sun, 10/21/2012 - 16:42 | 2908241 I Feel a little...
I Feel a little Qeasy's picture

"A single currency for an economy as strong as Germany on one hand and relatively weaker economies like Greece or Ireland on the other is not sustainable in the long run."

You don't explain why, and that's because you don't know why, and that's because it simply isn't true. Some have more, some have less. That's all.

I can spend dollars in any country in Europe, or Euros in Turkey. The denonination doesn't matter a toss, one fiat currency is no better or worse than any other whether you're rich or poor. If you're poor you just have less, and the currency you use has no bearing on either your wealth or your level of debt.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:09 | 2906293 evolutionx
evolutionx's picture

24 Reasons For Gold

There are many reasons for Gold. First and foremost: Preservation of Wealth. The illusionary paper wealth will implode in the next few years. The initial trigger will be the collapse of the world’s reserve currency – the US dollar. The financial system is unlikely to survive in its present form. Gold has been money for 5,000 years and will continue to be the only currency with integrity.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:39 | 2906356 Daily Bail
Daily Bail's picture

"The closest thing to a real audit was last performed in 1953, but even that one had major problems. First, there were no independent outside parties involved, and second, only 5% of the gold was tested for purity."

Sign Up For The Tour:

25% Of World's Gold Buried Underneath The NY Fed


Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:10 | 2906294 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

The Euro is no worse off than the Dollar under any scenerio.  Despite the whining of Euro shorts, the Euro remains in the same range that central banks have been keeping it in for years.  The nonsense has to stop.  There is one world currency and that is any piece of paper you choose to use.  As long as central banks all cooperate to maintain exchange rates, there is only one currency.  I dont quite understand why people are unwiling to accept that there is no currency market, just central bank enforced exchange rates.  If you don't like what you see, there is only one escape and that is gold.  If you think otherwise, you are deluded.  

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:17 | 2906300 Popo
Popo's picture

Well put.   All currencies are range bound through collusion.   That having been said,  there is always the possibility to 2 or more parties colluding against a third.   It would not surprise me to see one of the major currencies slowly isolated by other central banks.   Pound sterling perhaps?   (One must note that they have no gold, no industry and few friends).  And then there's Japan ...   

When one looks at the world's major currencies and their relative industrial / productive / energy / military profiles,  the strength of England's and Japan's currencies are certainly outliers, IMHO.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:24 | 2906323 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I think Japan is the proof that exchange rates are maintained by collusion.  A radioactive, tsunami devistated, economic wasteland, in a 20 year depression, with more debt than you can shake a stick at, and being threatened by China, shoud not have a currency that is worth jack.  But as long as the US government says they will exchange Dollars for Yen at a specific stable rate, the Yen will maintain value.  Until, of course, people realize the lynch pin of the system is just a grenade pin ready to take everyone out all at once.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 12:30 | 2906434 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

CArRy TradE blanche?

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 15:14 | 2906669 Marco
Marco's picture

20 year depression? Their inflation adjusted growth rate wasn't all that, but calling it a depression is a bit silly ...

The yen has value because Japanese products bought in yen have value. Just like the US dollar has value because Saudi Arabian products bought in dollar have value.

Sun, 10/21/2012 - 00:11 | 2907304 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

They can apparently go on living in denial longer than the rest of the world can stay solvent.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:24 | 2906327 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

But the Brits do have massive foreign investments.

They never broadcast them,Years ago people were worried that Japan would own

the USA.All the while the UK was and is the largest foreign investor in the US.

Same goes for Europe.The Squid could take lessons from the UK in this method of control.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 14:06 | 2906589 chiswickcat
chiswickcat's picture

(China, Japan then UK holds the most US Treasuries.) 

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 14:59 | 2906644 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

You only  count UST's but thats not what I said.

Total foreign investment.You'd be surprised how many 'American. companies are not.

Plus land and buildings etc etc..

The figures are not as high as pre WW! and II ,but they big.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 15:17 | 2906672 Marco
Marco's picture

Meh, unless they are lying about it they're not running a current account surplus ...

Sun, 10/21/2012 - 17:01 | 2908265 dugorama
dugorama's picture

Actually the Dutch are #1

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:31 | 2906350 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Then why is the price of gasoline so high in Europe? Clearly "mere gold" as an explanation does not suffice. One must understand the importance of DOLLAR DENOMINATION as well, yes? The USA is the only true common market in the world is it not? And thus "sets prices" for an ENORMITY of goods...including innovation itself?...God help us if that's the case. The USA will be running large trade surpluses soon save with China. Trust me. All that is needed is for oil to no longer be the primary motor fuel...and the USA can do that at anytime now in my view...and the reason why interest rates are as low as they are will become crystal clear.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:41 | 2906372 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

You seem to be making the argument that if a European came to America with Euros, converted them to dollars, they would not get the same amount of gasoline with Euros converted to dollars as they would with dollars from their paycheck.  Also you imply that a dollar exchanged for Euros will somehow get you more gasoline for your paper in Europe.  The exhcnage rate means you always get the same amount.  WHy prices are different in total purchasing power has nothing to do with exchange rates.


Sat, 10/20/2012 - 12:35 | 2906440 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

We have long had very high European taxes on petrol (American 'gas') in order to encourage use of public transport and people living in more sustainable cities and communities, and to discourage suburban sprawl, it has worked very well here

Cars are essentially toys here, we drive much less and keep cars for decades, so our streets look like an 'antique car show' to Americans

So for Europeans, US $8 or $10 per gallon prices, are no big deal here ... it is not a 'need' it is just the price of using our toys ... Public transport is super-cheap, e.g.,  you can travel by train to anywhere in Belgium for under 8 euros (ten-trip card)

A nice by-product is the middle class here still lives in city and downtown urban areas, and cities are generally safe with hugely less crime than in the United States ... whereas in America the cheap petrol helped ghetto-ise the cities and turn them into crime-ridden hellholes, despite the great architecture in places like Detroit, now mostly in ruins

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 13:37 | 2906542 laomei
laomei's picture

More or less the exact same situation in China. Cars are toys.  No one actually needs them to be honest.  In fact, they have highway tolls structured in a way to dissuade from long wasteful roadtrips.  Take the bus and subways locally, take trains and planes inter-city, and it's all dirt cheap. Cars are only a thing to bother with if you want some of your own space or to show off.  Actually being "required" for being able to survive though? Not at all.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 14:01 | 2906575 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Translation: We Euronuts love Agnda 21 and collectivism.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 20:13 | 2907115 Whiner
Whiner's picture

Yep. That's where we went wrong. Mass transit. Shoulda' seen it coming.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 20:53 | 2907145 Nels
Nels's picture

Talk to us about the no-go areas in Malmo and Paris, where it's dangerous to have a white face.

Crime comes first, then flight.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 15:03 | 2906647 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Plus everywhere is only a quarter the distance as far a way.

Fuel consuption is  much higher also.

You can drive across Europe in a long day.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 15:24 | 2906677 Marco
Marco's picture

Just to make it perfectly clear, you are saying there is a conspiracy to surpress the knowledge that the US (and the US alone) has the technological capability to synthesize petrol at lower cost than fossil oil? (A conspiracy you seem somehow privy to.) Otherwise I see no way for the US to run trade surplusses with everyone and ending the use of oil to create the primary motor fuel.

Sun, 10/21/2012 - 10:06 | 2907593 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

Europe taxes gasoline at about $4/gallon to discourage consumption. If you subtract the tax, EU gas prices aren't much higher than ours.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:36 | 2906360 NewWorldOrange
NewWorldOrange's picture

"There is one world currency and that is any piece of paper you choose to use. "

There is a helluva lot of truth in that. Most of the majors at this point are little more than derivatives of SDRs.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 12:06 | 2906410 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

The SDR is an international reserve asset, created by the IMF in 1969 to supplement its member countries' official reserves. Its value is based on a basket of four key international currencies, and SDRs can be exchanged for freely usable currencies. With a general SDR allocation that took effect on August 28 and a special allocation on September 9, 2009, the amount of SDRs increased from SDR 21.4 billion to around SDR 204 billion (equivalent to about $310 billion, converted using the rate of August 20, 2012).

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 12:39 | 2906446 chubbar
chubbar's picture

The SDR is IMF's attempt to make a great tasting cake by mixing the shit from 4 different dog piles. Just another trick at conjuring of wealth out of thin air. Anyone falling for that scheme deserves to be parted from whatever wealth they surrender for that mirage.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:14 | 2906304 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I'm thinking another trip to Cabela's this week. Probably a futile effort most likely. All this talk of communities coming together etc, I doubt it will happen. Not at first, we will be decimated before that happens. This shits gona come down so hard so fast the headline will read 'collapse overnight'.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:24 | 2906328 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

Don't expect the paperboy.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:35 | 2906359 Popo
Popo's picture

Expect him.  But he won't be coming to bring you the paper.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 18:14 | 2906403 DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

AKA, keep on stackin', rackin', and packin'.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:15 | 2906306 Nussi34
Nussi34's picture

Screw the FPIIGS!

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 12:16 | 2906423 chiswickcat
chiswickcat's picture

Maybe that should now read the FUKPIIGS?

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 21:15 | 2907164 chiswickcat
chiswickcat's picture

If only the Netherlands should find itself in similar trouble, we might be calling the collective group, the FUKINGPIGS. 

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:17 | 2906310 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I've never been to Spain so cannot speak to the folks. I have only briefly been in Germany...which I loved...and was immediately struck by how competitive and aggressive a world I found myself in. I though I'd moved to New York City actually...only "more focused" if not possessed. That was many years...clearly the "result of Greece" did not come as a surprise. I imagine the Spanish don't take losing lightly either however. I must say PM Rajoy does cut a formidable figure...the fact that riots, double digit unemployment, banks and indeed entire cities and regions going bust does not seem to deter him is rather striking. You and I in "the cheap seats" here can say with absolute certainty we know what will come of it. Do we? I think "the Sandwich" is still France. Not just because of the awesome size and importance of her...but because she has such an invariable history of falling apart as well. It has been a while...1944 to be precise...since a French Government has truly fallen. That was a LONG time ago. Not since Loius XIV has France known such continuity. Is it time? We shall see...I think we shall see shortly however.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:42 | 2906373 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

Apparently you have never been to France. the 1944 comment is pathetic, get your dates right, and the real government moved to London, the traitors stayed.

Catalonia will be the black swan, mark those words zh ers.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 12:25 | 2906431 chiswickcat
chiswickcat's picture

Catalonia the black swan. I like the angle, (really, I do) so not Japan, or a mid-sized bank going bust somewhere, nor a US state going bankrupt, nor an 'episode' involving Iran, Israel, the Staits of Hormuz, China vs Japan, nor South vs North Korea, nor a failed US bond aucton, not a false flag internet take down or international banking freeze to combat (flase flag) computor virus... What would be the immediate economic/social consequences of Catalonia doing its own thang?

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 12:52 | 2906466 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture


Its getting so we need an air traffic  controller to keep track of the potential black swans

that seem stacked ,ready for landing.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 14:04 | 2906580 chiswickcat
chiswickcat's picture

Did I hear someone say Syria? - sorry forgot that one.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 13:29 | 2906528 withnmeans
withnmeans's picture

I have traveled thru Spain, France, Italy and so on. Not sure of your position on Catalonia, they may want to separate, however they are nothing like the Basque's "which are more hardened", I think the Catalonian will not have the stomach to push forward.

Face it, there are "and always will be" several other areas all over Europe that have been fragmented and glued together for some reason or another. Will they fragment again, Yes, rest assured it will happen, not sure when. Europe has been evolving since the being of time, it will continue.

As for something to happen in Europe, I feel Greece will finally erupt "Like the Volcano on Santorini".

Good day!  Oh, it is Saturday, Cheers!

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 14:47 | 2906633 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

well i,m french lived in paris,london, milan and Barcelona, catalonians sleep in bed sheets in catalonian colors, they hate spaniards , they are the economic powerhouseof Spain, they are little weasels, very clever..45% of those unemployed youth WILL have the balls.Guaranteed , they have been waiting for this for DECADES...

them ditching Spain will unleash economic hell and a Domino effect in all of the financial world, a tipping point in this maze.

Like others have said here there are other possible black swans, i choose this one...i feel it in my guts.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 16:25 | 2906755 OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

I don't see how more peasants in the streets (Catalonia) will cause the Great Reset. It's clear this crowd, with today's police capabilities and media control, can suppress any peasant rumblings they want. People setting themselves on fire, suicides, mass gatherings of people banging pots...meh

The French Revolution didn't happen when peasants with pitchforks rose up. It was the bourgeoisie and minor nobility who realized they were getting screwed. We're a long way from that (though France may have started with the Pigeon businessman revolt).

Sun, 10/21/2012 - 09:18 | 2907559 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

lol, you have no clue about money in Catalonia, fool.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 21:19 | 2907168 chiswickcat
chiswickcat's picture

Thanks for the personal insight. I never knew...

Sun, 10/21/2012 - 16:22 | 2908205 1000924014093
1000924014093's picture

The "real" gov't? There was a nothing real about a gov't that couldn't even operate in the country it was supposedly governing. Petain and his fascist cronies were the governing reality till 1944.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 12:05 | 2906408 DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

The French love mobs; from a mob they arose, and to a mob they shall return.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 14:32 | 2906618 Vigilante
Vigilante's picture


Sat, 10/20/2012 - 14:48 | 2906634 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

quite true and not really funny.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:28 | 2906339 NewWorldOrange
NewWorldOrange's picture

Nice article. It's good to read something incisive about what's going on across the pond instead of the usual platitudes the MSM slings around. It does appear that European socialism has finally run out of other people's money. I wouldn't underestimate their ability to come up with more monetary musical chairs though. It wouldn't surprise me a bit to see the ECB or the Fed (they've done it before) bail out various EU banks who then buy bonds issued by the stressed national government and then pledge those bonds to the ECB as collateral in return for Euros. As you said Mark, it happened in Greece. Can't see what's to prevent a lot more of it. Seems to me that kind of "collateral" would be at least as valuable as much of the so-called collateral that's been pledged there so far. However the finer details are implemented, it's a pretty sure bet I think that they will do anything they can to kick the can and even if it is "entering the crisis phase", it could be perpetuated for years to come. In the meantime, the police state will continue to grow and liberties will continue to be curtailed.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 12:05 | 2906407 centerline
centerline's picture

The belt will get tighter for most and standard of living will continue to decline.  Austerity will be new norm.  Social unrest will continue rise - and to some the expanding police state will be welcomed.  At least until they are finally brought to thier own personal breaking points and feel the need to say something about it.

I could see this going on for some time as well, just as easily as I can see some sort of "event." Not sure which one scares me more.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 12:32 | 2906435 chiswickcat
chiswickcat's picture

reminds me of a person spinning plates on those wobbly sticks. a plate could fall any second, or they could keep them spinning for ages...

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 13:18 | 2906511 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

At the Greek weddings they break all the *spinning* plates.

Maybe that is right visual.  EU sets up the many spinning plates and then CRASH.


Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:29 | 2906343 swabeyjw
swabeyjw's picture

Merkel and Rajoy taking it to the wire. Anyone know who is the lead candidate for a Spanish technocrat leader?

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 13:40 | 2906544 machineh
machineh's picture

The lead candidate? That's up to the IMF, isn't it?

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 11:33 | 2906354 supafuckinmingster
supafuckinmingster's picture

look the pelacens ancle is at the door whiistling the ladygaga song!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 12:15 | 2906421 giggler123
giggler123's picture

I'd bet most replying to this article on ZH would pass an Autism test (I do not exclude myself  ;) )...

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 23:16 | 2907255 sherryw
sherryw's picture

Could you be more precise please.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 13:00 | 2906472 rufusbird
rufusbird's picture

The water was getting a little muddy and this clears it up. Thank you for the article. And, I appreciate all the comments. Lots of food for thought here.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 13:25 | 2906521 tooriskytoinvest
tooriskytoinvest's picture

Mega Bear Market Starting Monday: It’s Gonna Fall Pretty Hard Because Markets Are Ruled Right Now By Fear

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 13:30 | 2906533 russwinter
russwinter's picture

Germany "the savior of Europe" is now projected to grow 1% in 2013. That's if they are very lucky. 

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 13:49 | 2906558 Nuanda
Nuanda's picture

Is it just me or I read this same exact 'crisis' article featuring the same players and the same problems every 3 months - for the past 3 years? Wtf already?!?

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 14:20 | 2906608 samsara
samsara's picture

That may or may not be true,  I don't remember. 


But I do know that The wolf in the end got the sheep,

because it only had to be true once.



Sat, 10/20/2012 - 14:10 | 2906592 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

More (ESM) Economic Stimulus Monies will be mandated to taxpayer’s. Newly improved government financial crisis [budget] shortfalls will continue to scare feeble minds into new unfunded cash burn conformity tactics.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 14:40 | 2906626 theprofromdover
theprofromdover's picture

'Not only does Spain have several of its integral regions calling for SECESSION'

Europ will carry on stumbling into the mother of all crises because no-one learns from history, and the european office-holders are second-rate clerks and book-keepers, hoarding their pennies. There is no leadership. The only the that has happened is that the bankers stepped into the vacuum, and they have no interest in countries or people. The bankers are looking after themselves and dictating all policy.

Spain will explode, just ahead of Greece. France will be found to have been printing euros like crazy; Germany will walk. Holland will find itself busted. The european economies will all collapse, and the journalists will say nothing.

Catalonia and the Basques will both secede. Hungary might even invade Austria.

Don't be surprised when this all collapses, that some real ugly hard men start to appear. And they will be out for vengance.



Sun, 10/21/2012 - 09:59 | 2907589 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

I expect the EU rulers to attempt to implement an EU dictatorship under a "state of emergency" when it all starts crashing down. It could get really ugly.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 18:28 | 2906960 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

I've lived in France. Seen their welfare state. France is gonna be a goner, Greece-style maybe even worse. Only a matter of time.

Sun, 10/21/2012 - 09:56 | 2907586 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

They are all in "The burning building with no exits." It may be at slow burn, but they can't put out the fire, and it is pretty far gone by now. And if one of them tries to break out of the building, the smoldering embers will crash down and kill all of them.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 21:25 | 2907175 EuroInhabitant
EuroInhabitant's picture

Greece will get the money in a few weeks.

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 21:40 | 2907191 Perdogg
Perdogg's picture

I wonder how much longer the make believe will last in the US. 

Sat, 10/20/2012 - 22:36 | 2907223 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

It will last until it doesn't, of course.

Mountain climbers tie together for safety.  If one slips, the others can save him.  Assuming they are all healthy and fit for mountain climbing.

Unfortunately, what we have now are a bunch of fat, out-of-shape mountain climbers with heavy debt burdens on their backs- all still tied together.    

Everything will be fine and normal.  Right up until one of them slips.  No telling when that's going to happen.  Might never happen.  But I wouldn't bet on it.

Oh, and what is the usual custom for ending a reply on this site?  "Fuck Ben Bernancke!"  Yes, I believe that's it.  G'night all.

Sun, 10/21/2012 - 03:05 | 2907431 Die Weiße Rose
Die Weiße Rose's picture

most of the average citizens around the world still have no Idea where all their money has gone !

If they ever find out that it was their own corrupt Governments, that literally stole their hard-earned cash and that they will now have to end up spending the rest of their Lives in poverty, in return for years of hard labour and a dull, miserable Life as slaves to the very system that defeated them -

once People around the world will realize this ugly truth -

there will be mayhem, revolution and anarchy against all those oppressors

who were part of all these unjust crimes, and that whole miserable and corrupt system.


Sun, 10/21/2012 - 07:55 | 2907502 buffettwanab
buffettwanab's picture


Sun, 10/21/2012 - 16:52 | 2908254 dugorama
dugorama's picture

sure.  Michael chertoff was a Bush appointee head of DHS until he left through the revolving door to sell his former agency billions of dollars worth of body scanners.  These scanners have never caught anyone or anything.  They have never been tested for safety.  Indeed, the "backscatter" machines work by spraying (scattering) the same amount of radiation the dentist uses in a focused way.  In the dentist's office, of course, everyone hides behind lead shields.  The poor SOBs working for the TSA just stand next to the machines unshielded and get zapped over and over all day long.  Moving them to the sticks means that Chertoff can sell V2.0 to the big airports.  When you travel to Europe you'll notice that while all the airports do have the machines - because we required that of them - no one is using them.  Germany has prohibited them on safety grounds.  Amsterdam's aren't even plugged in.  But we're buying more of them, making former DHS folk rich.  Feel better /safer now?

Sun, 10/21/2012 - 19:44 | 2908526 Elikal
Elikal's picture

Just to make one thing clear, as German I would rather see the Euro go bust and the EU sooner than later. The entire system is a horror. In the long term for all involved nations.

However, I simply do not see it. Not in the near future. Not as long as the German economy runs and the German government can write the money down as cheques to "be paid later". You see, you overestimate the rationality of the German politicians and the German public. For a German politician and many people here, "more Europe" is not a mere phrase, it is a religion. I grew up in the 1970ies, and there wasn't a day when I was not infused with the idea that being German was something VERY VERY evil. Most our teachers then when Lefties, and the dominating feeling of many Germans is, to dissolve Germany, to be absolved from the crime of the fathers from the Nazi era, by dissolving Germany in Europe, by ceasing to be German and becoming Europeans instead. It is this emotional, psychological wound or neurosis which is much, much stronger than any reason of economy. That is why the German politicians and many of the German people will pay and pay until the situation in Germany itself would go horribly wrong. But until that manifests, until people in masses lose jobs and get poor because of the Euro and thus pressure from the public forms, Germany will support the Euro and in the end go to ANY length to keep the Euro alife.

Mark my words, the Euro will stay for years to come, only then the crash will come, later, but then even much more brutal. It is psychology not economy which are at work here, I am afraid.

Sun, 10/21/2012 - 21:19 | 2908678 Tim Brasco
Tim Brasco's picture

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