Presenting All The US Debt That's Fit To Monetize

Tyler Durden's picture

Over the past 4 years the Fed's strategy in response to the Second Great Depression has been a simple one: purchase record (and now open-ended) amounts of fixed income product (offset by releasing record amounts of reserves in the banking universe which in turn has converted every bank into a TBTF and Fed-backstopped hedge fund, as the concurrently shrinking Net Interest Margin no longer leads to the required ROA from legacy bank lending) to stabilize the bond market, and to crush yields in hopes of forcing every uninvested dollar to scramble for equities, primarily of the dividend paying kind now that dividend income is the only "fixed income" available.

So far the strategy has failed for the simple reason that the smart money instead of being "herded", has far more simply decided to just front-run the Fed thus generating risk-free returns, while the "dumb money", tired of the HFT and Fed-manipulated, and utterly broken casino market, has simply allocated residual capital either into deposits (M2 just hit a new all time record of $10.2 trillion) or into "return of capital" products such as taxable and non-taxable bonds. Alas none of the above means that the Fed will ever stop from the "strategy" it undertook nearly 4 years ago to the day with QE1 (as any change to a "strategy" of releasing up to $85 billion in flow per month will be immediately perceived as implicit tightening and crash the stock market). Instead, it will continue doing more of the same until the bitter end. But how much more is there? To answer this question, below we present the entire universe of marketable US debt, in one simple chart showing the average yield by product type on the Y-axis, and the total debt notional on the X.

The Fed, with the recent advent of QEternity, aka the incorrectly named 'QE 3',  is already engaged in the monetization of virtually everything to the right of Municipal debt (under the blue arrow in chart below). The reason why the Fed needs to continue buying up Treasurys in the 10Y+ interval is simple - in doing so it is funding the long-end of US deficit spending, aka everything that has a greater than zero duration in the age of ZIRP. However, that amount is merely enough to keep the status quo as is, in other words to keep the deficit government funded. Remember that the Fed's ultimate goal is to inflate the debt stock of both the US and the world. Which means that not even QEternity will be enough. It also means that very soon the Fed will be forced to shift its monetization appetite further to the left of the X-axis, and increasing buy up more and more higher yielding fixed income product, in a rerun of Japan, which the US has now become. Recall that the BOJ is also openly monetizing Corporate debt, as well as various equity-linked products.

Said otherwise, the "smart money" is now loading up on those debt products, IG and HY debt, munis and non-agency MBS, which the Fed will sooner or later become the buyer of first, last and only resort. And just like Bill Gross was buying up MBS on record margin in February (as we showed) in advance of QE3, so now everyone else is once again merely preparing for the inevitable next step, as the Fed proceeds to monopolize the entire marketable debt universe.

Sadly for the Fed this also means that any incremental free money will simply continue to chase more fixed income product before the Fed starts buying it (thus providing an easy bid to sell into), instead of buying up already ridiculously overpriced equities (where record profit margins are about to slam into the immovable walls of soaring input and commodity costs crushing the "cheap" P/E illusion), which in turn will force Bernanke to one day in the near future, go full Japanese retard, and announce the Fed will as a matter of policy, as opposed to simply via the PPT and Citadel in times of desperation, commence buying equities. But that's a story for another day.

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lolmao500's picture

Let's make sure all yields cratter so that pension funds are forced to invest in the stock market so that the HFT can rob more money from people! Great idea!

In other news... Obama pulls his October Surprise...

The United States and Iran have agreed for the first time to one-on-one negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, according to Obama administration officials

max2205's picture

Don't mean shit to the cell phone voters

Oil crashes Monday?

vast-dom's picture

OT: The Miscreant’ Global Bust-Out Mark Mitchell -- 21 CHAPTERS NOW GOING UP:


Enjoy. And thanks to Wouter.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

R.I.P. the personal computer?  Hmm..

"Review of Barron's -- Dated 22 October 2012":



vast-dom, your blog article looks very interesting, I will try to read it tonight!  + 1!

Manthong's picture

..can't seem to find the PDF version.


LouisDega's picture

Dude, I got a Dell. The Xps 8500 is alive and well


vast-dom's picture

here is an excerpt from the postings -- and this is just the tip of the iceburg in how Madoff, the SEC, the Russian Mob/Gov and the Iranians (who happened to work closely with all parties) colluded to crash the markets in 2008:


"The SEC rule prohibiting others to short sell on a downtick (which was scrapped entirely, at the behest of Madoff and others in his network, right at the inopportune moment in 2007 when the markets had begun to weaken) was meant to prevent traders from inducing death spirals and crashing the markets. But thanks to “The Madoff Exemption”, the clients of Madoff could induce death spirals without a word from the SEC.

Madoff also helped write the SEC rule that allowed market makers, such as Madoff, to engage in naked short selling so long as the purpose was to maintain “liquidity” in the markets, and so long as real stock was eventually delivered. Given that Madoff was, after all, a criminal of monumental proportions, it boggles the mind that neither the SEC nor the media ask whether Madoff might have “rented out” his market making exemption to hedge funds wishing to use naked short selling to drive down the markets.

It is more than likely that Madoff not only rented out his exemption, but abused it, never “clearing”, or delivering the stock he had “temporarily” sold naked.

The fact that Madoff actually helped write the SEC rules governing short selling (rules that contained precisely the sort of loopholes that would allow miscreant traders to crash the markets) should give you a sense of just what sort of agency the SEC was in 2008. In fact, the utter failure of the SEC and the all-important Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation, or DTTC, to prevent naked short selling caught the attention of the people who were hired by the Defense Department Irregular Warfare Support program to analyze the causes of the 2008 financial crisis.

The report that was produced for the Defense Department (the same report I cited at the outset of this story) states that there is a possibility that the SEC and the DTTC (a self-regulating body responsible for ensuring settlement of short sales and other transactions) were compromised by organized crime or even foreign enemies of the state. The report concludes: “Implications that these parties [the SEC, the DTTC, and other Wall Street institutions] have been complicit [in acts of financial terrorism] or otherwise co-opted cannot be ruled out.”

That statement is not preposterous. Bernard Madoff was not the only suspect character roaming the halls of the nation’s regulatory bodies. We have seen that Sheikh DeLorenzo (he with the Al Qaeda partner linked to the military spy scandal) also received favorable treatment from the SEC, which allowed him to set up Al Safi Trust’s naked short selling machine in 2007. And as we will see, there were still other, equally dangerous people who “captured” officials at both the DTTC and the SEC.


* * * * * * * * *

Given the people whom Bernard Madoff serviced, it is clear that he was not just a monumental criminal, he was also a threat to national security. Consider that he had just a few other key “feeders” who profited from his scam, one of whom was the Abu Dhabi royal family, another of whom was Al Qaeda Golden Chain member Sheikh Mahfouz. The Abu Dhabi royals and Sheikh Mahfouz, of course, came to be on close terms with Madoff and his network when they were perpetrating the BCCI criminal enterprise."


Now to bring this on topic let's speculate how the banks can so easily leverage The Fed and DC by blackmailing mob-style with taking down the entire global economy if they are not supported in their ponzi operations.

Pump, Drain (naked short sell) and Dump is profits to the Nth, then get the blood QE transfusion and repeat. Legalized loan sharking just helps line up the victims and get them into their houses = loans / MBS = sucked up by The Fed. Now look above at that Monetized by The Fed line and take into account Tyler's The Fed will "commence buying equities" and we can see how the real "legit" financial terrorists are leveraging Bernank et. al. to support the criminal enterprises (e.g. housing, Russian, Iranian, Cartel money laundering, Madoff style ponzi with same Russians, Iranians and drug dealers, etc etc etc [the only difference in Russia and China is that there is less pretense as to the seperation of finance and gov / crime and law, or lack thereof]).


So blatent and in clear sight that it is not even seen a la the Poe classic The Purloined Letter. More upcoming.

GetZeeGold's picture



Oil crashes Monday?


Hope so...I need to put some gas in the truck. Have you seen how expensive that crap is.

BurningFuld's picture

One thing Iran does not want is Mittens in charge. They as well as I have determined he may be unstable. (?)

sessinpo's picture

Kind of silly. Iran doesn't want  anyone in charge except Iran. Ironically, that applies to every nation. They don't want anyone in charge but themselves. Kind of self evident.

helping_friendly_book's picture

Makes sense that Iranians would want self determination over Iran.

Sounds reasonable to me.

The USA supplied Saddam Hussein with unlimited arms to attack Iran and wage an, unprovoked, war of aggression for eight years. 

A whole generation of Iran was sacrificed to save Iran from invasion by USA proxy. 

I think it is the USA who owes an apology and beg forgiveness from Iran. The USA has been attacking Iran since 1952. Iran is well withing their right to defend their sovereignty against the savagery of the USA. 

Stupid American dimwits have some nerve afflicted with diarrhea of the mouth and complete ignorance of their own history and the actions of this continually criminal regime.

TPTB are so frustrated that the President will not wage their unholy, evil wars against innocent women and children.

Even the Pentagon is revolting against the US warmongers. The Jew intelligentsia has lost their grip on the throat of the machine and they can see their own demise as the internet leads us to the true conclusion that our Gov't are traitors to the Constitution.

Protect and serve themselves. They wipe their ass with the Constitution with their paramilitary and free speech zones and banking cartels.

Their are many Zionist trolls  here. Learn to spot them and end their terror.

AGuy's picture

What about Syria? Iran's long time Ally? Obama is destabilzing Syrian by supporting Syrian Rebels, I don't see how Iran would favor Obama over Mittens. In by opinion I see little difference between Mittens and Obama, mere two sides of the same coin.

I am leaning towards the belief that HyperInflation is turning painful in Iran. Iran may be weeks or months away before major riots and a civil war occurs. I doubt this will help the West or Israel since Iran's gov't is likely to just be replaced by an even more radical gov't, perhaps armed with Nukes and willing to use them, even if it means severe loss of life of thier own (Iranian) people, perhaps under the belief that God will prevent them from losing or some other bizarre religious fanatical fantasy.

If my assumptions are correct, than Iran is becoming desperate and is reaching out (Talks with the US) in order to save itself before a civial war begins in Iran.

flacon's picture

Judging by the URL that is tomorrow's news today. 




"A version of this article appeared in print on October 21, 2012, on page A1 of the National edition with the headline: U.S. Officials Say Iran Has Agreed To Nuclear Talks."

Tyler Durden's picture

Just another instance of the NYT getting everything completely wrong. At least according to the administration:

Statement by NSC Spokesman Tommy Vietor on Iran


It’s not true that the United States and Iran have agreed to one-on-one talks or any meeting after the American elections. We continue to work with the P-5 on a diplomatic solution and have said from the outset that we would be prepared to meet bilaterally. The President has made clear that he will prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and we will do what we must to achieve that. It has always been our goal for sanctions to pressure Iran to come in line with its obligations. The onus is on the Iranians to do so, otherwise they will continue to face crippling sanctions and increased pressure.

lolmao500's picture

Thanks for the follow up Tyler!

francis_sawyer's picture

The fucking ONUS should be on the Apartheid State of Israel to become a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty... Until then ~ this is all fucking bullshit...

helping_friendly_book's picture

The occupied State of Palestine aka Israel.

Their real homeland is Krakow.

Just theifs and Stern gang criminals. Polacks go home.


Stuck on Zero's picture

Dang.  The President wanted that bogus news leaked on November 5th.


Silver Bug's picture

QE to infinity is the only solution they know.


Peter Schiff Blog

Backspin's picture

The rarely discussed fact is that they can't really pay off the debt by monetizing it.  They are not printing money and then using that money to pay off the treasury bonds.  They are printing money and using that money to buy more bonds, thereby increasing the debt.

The way the system currently works, they can't actually pay off the debt by printing money.  They only increase the debt.

y = e^x, bitchez.


bunnyswanson's picture

The plan is to achieve three main goals. First, give privatizers the right to turn public infrastructure into tollbooth opportunities. The idea is to force cities to balance budgets by leasing or selling off their roads and bus systems, schools and prisons, real estate and other natural monopolies. In the process, this promises to create a new market for banks: lending to vulture investors to buy rights to install tollbooths on the economy’s basic infrastructure.


Elected public officials could not engage in such predatory and anti-labor policies. Only the “magic of the marketplace” can break public labor unions, downsize public services and put tollbooths on the roads, water and sewer systems while cutting back bus lines and raising fares.


To achieve this financial plan, it is necessary to frame the problem in a way that rules out less anti-social alternatives.


As Margaret Thatcher put matters, TINA: There Is No Alternative to selling off public transportation, real estate, and even school systems and jails.

helping_friendly_book's picture

Thanks! You just gave me new nightmares. My people have a 225 acre farm between two mountains. No toll roads there. Just have to ditch my real estate first to get from under the real estate trap.

spankthebernank's picture
The following is what po' dunk retarded sheep think of Ben Bernanke.  A column in a local paper, by a local money manager no less! By October 14, 2012 

Poor Ben Bernanke. He doesn't get any respect.

Much of Congress blames the Federal Reserve chairman's policies at least in part for the economic meltdown of 2008 and 2009. But Bernanke had little to do with the root causes of the economic crisis.

Congress also berates him for current policies, while they've done almost nothing to fix fiscal policy or the tax code. And that's what really needs to be done now. Bernanke's Fed has already been forced by Congress's inaction to use more monetary policy ammunition to fix the economy than it should have had to.

Tellingly, even as the country edges closer to the edge of the looming Dec. 31 fiscal cliff, Congress has closed up shop, and left town to try and get re-elected. They should be embarrassed to be criticizing the Fed.

A lot of economists pan the Bernanke Fed's easy money policies too. But as a group, those economists have managed to predict five of the last three recessions, with an equally bad track record for predicting recoveries.

Presidential candidate Mitt Romney has threatened to replace Bernanke. And Barack Obama is noncommittal, although he has already reappointed Bernanke once.

The truth is that a lot of the too-easy monetary policy and lax oversight of financial markets that contributed to the economic collapse were the work of Bernanke's predecessor, Alan Greenspan. In contrast, Bernanke, while rightfully needing to maintain low interest rates in the face of the economic meltdown and a painfully slow recovery, has played a major role in undoing the relaxed regulatory oversight of the Greenspan Fed.

A Republican, the former Princeton economics professor was first appointed Fed chairman by George W. Bush in 2006. But by then a lot of the groundwork for the economic implosion that commenced in late 2007 had already been laid. Bernanke was reappointed by Obama in 2010. He comes up for reappointment again in January, 2014.

Alan Greenspan was largely viewed as being able to walk on water for almost all of his Fed chairmanship tenure. But he fell out of favor after leaving office, finally admitting that some of his easy-money policy and laissez-faire regulatory stance contributed to the crisis.

To be fair, there's plenty of blame to go around, especially to unscrupulous mortgage brokers and financial institutions that relaxed credit standards, or even forged borrower credit qualifications. Borrowers who undertook more debt than they could repay are also culpable. And political policy out of Washington prior to the meltdown didn't help.

But Ben Bernanke played little role in precipitating the crisis. He largely inherited an already inflated real estate and debt bubble that was about to burst.

Significantly, once the bubble did burst during 2008 and 2009, he played a pivotal part in pulling the U.S. back from the edge of the economic abyss. He worked with the outgoing Bush administration and Obama's incoming Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner to put together a set of policies and situational determinations that, among other things, resulted in saving our auto and banking industries. He was a calm hand at the helm, who helped re-instill confidence in badly shaken markets.

Yes, a lot of decisions were made on the fly, as debacle followed debacle in rapid succession almost daily during the height of the crisis. And a lot of the response was guesswork.

Inevitably, some decisions didn't work out so well, like allowing Lehman Bros. and Bear Stearns to fail. But most succeeded, for example keeping American International Group and General Motors in business. The jury is still out on some, like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

But only the benefit of hindsight some years from now will determine how smart the various fixes were. All of those decisions, including the overall Troubled Asset Relief Program and assorted stimulus initiatives, will be debated in economics classrooms for a long time.

But whether you like any of the decisions or not, the result is a slow, halting economic recovery that's taking hold, maybe even gaining momentum. And Ben Bernanke helped make that happen.

His departure any time soon would shake the confidence of consumers, businesses and investors. And it would likely roil the markets yet again.


mercy's picture

I almost vomitted after reading this. Disgusting!

earleflorida's picture

are you or are you not defending an ambiguous tenor's adjunct muff ?   green-lighting the chairsatan himself... through a cunning, deceptive and circumlocution scripted 'freudian slip-rant via naivete... repose'd upon pure-puerile courant!

KISS thy hand of reason, and bathe no more in thy winter's folly of errand`fool's reveling in sardonic song?

'Ben Bernanke, Who Missed an $8 Trillion Housing Bubble, Warned About the Deficit' 

evolutionx's picture


A deluge of an unprecedented magnitude is both inevitable and imminent. The consequences of the economic and political mismanagement will have a devastating impact on the world for a very long time. And the consequences will touch most corners of the world in so many different areas; economic, financial, social, political and geopolitical.

Deathrips's picture

Hows London Looking Today.......? They might beat us to it.

Fuck You Bernanke!

max2205's picture

And that's where it ends. Sadly

devo's picture

I think there's going to be a (Wall St) engineered crash to get Romney in the White House and repeal DF. This "crisis" will give them a catalyst to monetize everything (for the good of the people, of course) until the next election. Rinse, repeat.

helping_friendly_book's picture

That's my wet dream! I have been sitting on SPXU forever waiting for the collapse. 1931 style.

 The Dow will bottom out at a Depression-era low of just 41.22 in 1932.

1930 Unemployment in 1930 at 8.9%

Unemployment averages 8.9% for the year.

Jun 17, 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff

Congress passes the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, steeply raising import duties in an attempt to protect American manufactures from foreign competition. The tariff increase has little impact on the American economy, but plunges Europe farther into crisis.

1931 Unemployment in 1931 at 16.3%

Unemployment averages 16.3% for the year.

Nov 1931 Major Bank Collapse

New York's Bank of the United States collapses in the largest bank failure to date in American history.[M31] $200 million in deposits disappear, and the bank's customers are left holding the bag.

1932 Unemployment in 1932 at 24.1%

Unemployment averages 24.1% for the year.

DowTheorist's picture

Well eventually this will not escape to gold...Which gold?, since not all gold is created equal


Here are some ideas to help the investor clarify his ideas, time frames and gold "flavors" in which to invest:

Spitzer's picture
3 of the 4 Richest Countries in the world have no minimum wage laws


Who would have thought ?



GoinFawr's picture

Thank you. Now I have you on record defining Norway as a free market economy.

No wonder you kept that blurp so short, the slightest scratch and its insipid 'conclusion' falls apart faster than a pair of Chinese workboots.

Spitzer's picture

It can be debated how much unions are an arm of the government but the botton line is, there is no minimum wage by decree.

Norway is is a mix of socialism and fical conservatism.

GoinFawr's picture

You'd better rewrite that whole entry then.

 But I agree, according to the national balance sheet and SWF the Unionized Gov't International Oil business is certainly pulling its own weight and then some in Norway. Capitalism too 

I see the second 'richest' in your selection has a stunning min. wage.

Yen Cross's picture

So basically, the Fed. is running a 10 year LTRO?  I can't wait to see who front runs that idea!

  Aliens do exist, and Asteriods are made of (XAU)<>

  Make no mistake Tyler.  Japan emulated the United States< with the " marshal plan", post ww2.   Then Japan got intoxicated with leverage in the 80's and 90's.

   The United States knows perfectly well, what lost generations look like. The United States thinks they can "resource" their way out of this. Japan is using it's "short lived" strong yen to print and buy abroad. How is Japan going to service that debt( 200+% of gdp), with a weaker currency? Japan is going straight down the shitter!

  Japan will set precedent, for "hyperinflation" exit/tightening strategies. and piss off KAMPO in the process.

blindman's picture

japan had the fed. who does the fed have?
f that. there be combustibles here ..
.."The atmosphere of Titan is largely composed of nitrogen; minor components lead to the formation of methane and ethane clouds and nitrogen-rich organic smog. The climate—including wind and rain—creates surface features similar to those of Earth, such as dunes, rivers, lakes and seas (probably of liquid methane and ethane), and deltas, and is dominated by seasonal weather patterns as on Earth. With its liquids (both surface and subsurface) and robust nitrogen atmosphere, Titan's methane cycle is viewed as an analog to Earth's water cycle, although at a much lower temperature." ....
and so there ya' go. combustibles there and alcohol
here, what a deal. someone can collateralize that?
and just when we shut down our space program.
thinking beyond global to the solar systemic and ...

lolmao500's picture


Exclusive: Pioneering scientists turn fresh air into petrol in massive boost in fight against energy crisis

"We've taken carbon dioxide from air and hydrogen from water and turned these elements into petrol," said Peter Harrison, the company's chief executive, who revealed the breakthrough at a conference at the Institution of Mechanical Engineers in London.

HappyCamper's picture

The good news is that they made 5 liters of petro out of thin air. The bad news is that it took them the equivalent of 15 liters of  petro energy to actually make the stuff. Nevertheless, it should be good for at least a $500 million grant from the Obama administration, in return for lavish campaign contributions, of course.

DeadFred's picture

Entropy is a bitch. They should outlaw it.

Terminus C's picture

That's nothing... I just invented a cold fusion driven, perpetual motion machine. All I need to bring it to market is $100 billion.

Oh, and the island of Santorini, where I will build my... uh... production facilities.

disabledvet's picture

let is dispense with the term "smart money" shall we? after Groupon and Facebomb i think "the smart money" has pretty much retreated for the time being. How about we just call..."money" in "the money" and "no, the government doesn't have any but that guy does" kinda money...yes, yes? First off this is a FIRST RATE article...but to think the "Fed will now proceed to monetize everything" when its balance sheet has stayed pretty much stable going on 18 months now (even though the NATURE and COMPOSITION of the balance sheet has certainly changed a lot) i think is just not true whoever wins the next election. Inflation to me is easily created: DO NOTHING...and the economy by dint of massive ongoing Federal stimulus, zero percent financing of everything, a cyclical albeit anemic recovery and continued advantages vis a vis terms of trade (USA already a net energy exporter for example) and i think you'll see "the long hard slog" proceed. I do NOT believe the next Administration will make deficit reduction it's number one priority but "the War thingy." I also think a "Final Solution" to the energy nightmare that the West has been dealing with going on 5 or 6 decades now will be a priority. We shall see on that one of course (cough, cough...General Electric...cough, cough.) And of course the continued build out of the web-based media landscape is a HUGE deal...with hopefully media properties such as Zero Hedge...and all the commentariat here "boldly going where no commentarian has gone before!" included in the payout regimine. we shall see on that score too. i also think State and local governments are in for a Great Awakening as the MASSIVE expense of the baby boomers who have now exited "stage right" (or left...we shall see come election day) become quite the burden. WHAT AN EXIT THO! WHAT ANNNNN EXIT! don't sell short a recovery people when the folks telling you to refuse to present any ACTUAL EVENTS OR NUMBERS to back up their claims. Not saying i'm right...or that they're wrong btw. But you all know EXACTLY where i'm coming from because i've been saying the same thing over and over again. Of course "BY ALL MEANS SUBSTITUTE MY JUDGEMENT FOR YOURS" when it comes to your money...but in the meantime...

Tyler Durden's picture

Apparently, you, like Paul Krugman, have no idea that while notional has been flat, duration (10 year equivalence) is soaring as shown here most recently. Another word for duration is inflation risk. Which by the way in ZIRP through 2015, is all that matters.

ParkAveFlasher's picture

This Tyler ^^^ is totally an Englishman.

Keep up the good fight, fellas.  You have forces fighting for themselves in tiny cells across the world.  Like WWF intercontinental champion Tito Santana used to say, "Arriba!"

Never One Roach's picture

Great charts showing the breakdown of Fed holdings---duration. I wonder how defined benefit pensions and municipalities are going to meet all their obligations in the coming decade given the 0% to 3% returns when they base their calculatuions on 8% return.