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Revenue Miss Parade Resumes With Caterpillar

Tyler Durden's picture


Last night, in a spontaneous moment of clarity, the ZH brain trust tweeted the following:

So far we had our first "others" when Hasbro missed the topline, printing revenues of $1.35 billion vs expectations of $1.38 billion, but more importantly here comes CAT, with a whopper of a topline miss, worse than even the recent preannouncements could predict.

  • CAT REVENUES $16.45 BILLION, EXP. $16.74 BILLION, EPS$ 2.54, EXP. $2.22
  • CAT SEES 2012 EPS $9.00-$9.25, PREVIOUSLY HAD SEEN $9.60

The reasons for the collapse in near-term hope:

The decline in the sales and revenues outlook reflects global economic conditions that are weaker than we had previously expected.  In addition, Cat dealers have lowered order rates well below end-user demand to reduce their inventories.  Production across much of the company has been lowered, resulting in temporary shutdowns and layoffs.  Lower production will continue until inventories and dealer order rates move back in line with dealer deliveries to end users.  The reduction in the profit outlook is in line with the lower sales and revenues outlook, partially offset by the gain on the sale of a majority interest in our third party logistics business.


"As we've moved through the year, we've seen continued economic weakening and uncertainty.  It's definitely impacting our business with dealers intending to lower inventories and mining customers delaying some projects and reducing orders," Oberhelman said.  "We're focused on being very nimble and taking actions to respond to the current environment while at the same time keeping our 2015 goals and expectations in mind.  It requires a pragmatic and steady approach as we balance our actions in the short term with what we need to do to be prepared for better growth when the world economy improves," Oberhelman added.

Then looking at 2013 the firm is full of hopium that sooner or later China will join the global ease fest and push up revenues. Which is why it is purposefully vague:

  • SEES FY 2013 SALES UP IN SAME RANGE AS 2012: UP 5% - DOWN 5%

Even so, the company is hardly stoked about the future:

From an economic standpoint, we are expecting slightly better world growth in 2013 with modest improvement in the United States, China and most of the developing world, but continuing difficulty in Europe.  Based on our economic forecast, our preliminary outlook for 2013 is for sales and revenues to be about the same as 2012 in a range of up 5 percent to down 5 percent.


"We are taking a pragmatic view of 2013—we're not expecting rapid growth, and we're not predicting a global recession.  At this point, we expect 2013 sales will be similar overall to 2012, but with a slightly weaker first half and a slightly better second half.  While machine deliveries to end users have continued to hold up, our sales will probably remain relatively weak early in 2013 as dealers are likely to continue reducing inventories.  When expected dealer inventory reductions level off, and easing actions by central banks and governments around the world begin to improve economic growth, we expect our business will begin to improve.  While there's reason for optimism, and we're not expecting a global recession in 2013, we are prepared and stand ready to take action no matter what happens to the global economy," Oberhelman added.

Expect the up 5% to be quietly phased out in the coming months as the PBOC, already brimming with inflation and in a critical political year, does nothing to help western companies' toplines.

Full release link here.


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Mon, 10/22/2012 - 07:47 | Link to Comment Aziz
Aziz's picture

You mean central planning hasn't succeeded at creating everlasting prosperity???

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 07:51 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Central planning made the CAT go was suppose to bounce!


The press release due out from Chicago later this morning will explain why that's actually a good thing.

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 07:53 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Futures are green so reality still doesn't matter...yet.

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 07:56 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Reality doesn't hit for a while there.....aloha.

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 08:00 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

You reminded me of this...

Now just replace NBC with QE3

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 09:57 | Link to Comment jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

Ahhh yes, Miami Vice.  Now that was must see TV.  

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 09:54 | Link to Comment DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

Well, looks like the MSM now - just ignore those predictions we made that were dead wrong.

Just look at BTU and TXN this am...

If we blather on enough about CAT, we can pretend a lousy batting average is good, right?  Sound familiar?


Mon, 10/22/2012 - 07:51 | Link to Comment Robslob
Robslob's picture

Ease up Tyler...I mean what is a couple Billion miss between friends?

I am sure Wall Street will be most forgiving and understanding.

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 07:52 | Link to Comment UGrev
UGrev's picture

Next up, (C)h(AT)annel Stuffing.. 

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 10:48 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

CAT is a bailout queen thanks to The Bernank driving up metals and oil(tar sands) and the stimulus of a few years ago drove big spending on roads. that is drying up and here in IL the big road building babies are screaming that the road $ is drying up.

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 12:24 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

You misspelled 'scat'.

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 07:52 | Link to Comment HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Attention Children: Christmas is cancelled.

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 08:15 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Bam Bam wins again.


On your way out take your little dog Toto and your little drummer buy too.


The Democratic platform approves this message.....if you can get them to shut up that is....

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 07:52 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

These companies can't even hit top line estimates with inflated dollars?  Pathetic.  We've reached the point of marginal utility for QE.  Everyone who said don't fight the Fed or buy with the Fed will be taught a valuable lesson.

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 07:55 | Link to Comment jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

Good enough for me. I'm buying stocks! This must be bullish? After all, it wasn't down more...right?

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 07:55 | Link to Comment 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

Better than expected.


Green by the open.

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 07:59 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Who needs CAT equipment when you can dig silver out of the ground for $5 using your bare hands?...

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 08:00 | Link to Comment doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

Tyler you remind me of Tom Cruise in Minority Report....

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 08:09 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture


Mon, 10/22/2012 - 08:13 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I think he was referring to "pre-cogs", but that'll do... Now how about a sandwich & glass of milk?...

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 09:17 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Didn't somebody write a book off that movie?

The basic tool for the manipulation of reality is the manipulation of words. If you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use the words. - Philip K. Dick

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 08:00 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture


Obama will take care of that...

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 08:10 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Well, they didnt make a profit by themselves.  They had smurfs, pixies and hobbits who were actually responsible.

Obama's new slogan - "HOBBIT RIGHTS!"


Mon, 10/22/2012 - 08:02 | Link to Comment swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

All the big base metal miners have been cutting their investment projects dramatically, mainly due to crashing iron ore prices. Of course CAT's business is affected by that.

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 08:38 | Link to Comment Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

Yep..and it's moving down the supply chain. I work for a supplier of the OEMs and the orders for next quarter look awful. Lots of cancellations. We're going off the cliff January 1st.

The Austrian's can claim a major victory on this one. Bernank can reduce rates all he wants but he can't create demand.

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 08:02 | Link to Comment tuttisaluti
tuttisaluti's picture

and so go's the tax revenue

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 08:11 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Raise the tax on zero revenue.....that'll show the bastards.

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 08:06 | Link to Comment reload
reload's picture

As of this damp and miserable English morning - I am short equities / long index puts for the first time in many months. Pretty much guarantees a masive squeeze so I have not exactly bet the ranch.

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 08:07 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture


Mon, 10/22/2012 - 08:11 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Dead CAT

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 08:17 | Link to Comment knotjammin2
knotjammin2's picture

Did anyone see Fox Business spin on this: 

Caterpillar Inc (CAT), the world's largest maker of tractors and excavators, said on Monday its quarterly profit rose nearly 50% due in part to higher sales in the United States and price increases.

For the third quarter, the company posted profit of $1.7 billion, or $2.54 per share, compared with $1.14 billion, or $1.71 per share, in the year-ago period.

Revenue rose 5% to $16.45 billion.

Read more:

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 08:18 | Link to Comment ltsgt1
ltsgt1's picture

(Reuters) - Caterpilar third-quarter profit jump 50% after strong sales.

I don't know rather to laugh or cry.

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 08:23 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Just sarc with the rest of's fun!

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 08:28 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

Less revenue for Illinois....hmmmm...thats gotta hurt

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 08:29 | Link to Comment spentCartridge
spentCartridge's picture

When in a hole, stop digging.

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 08:35 | Link to Comment ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Well, at least stop using a CAT backhoe...oh wait seems like people are.  


Hand shovels next.

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 08:30 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

And in further news, Caterpillar calls all their dealers and clients and plays "let's make a deal".  We like to refer to that as channel stuffing.


C'mon everybody, let's do the "channel stuffing shuffle".

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 08:42 | Link to Comment sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

That's what they get for believing there were shovel ready jobs.

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 08:49 | Link to Comment overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

just in BLS finds error in UE reporting!! listed laid off/fired workers # were too high!! seems they are now classed as on extended vacation w/o pay..UE rate drops to 5.5%...CNBC goes wild with joy.

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 08:50 | Link to Comment gdgenius
gdgenius's picture

Nothing wrong with FCX revenue...

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 08:55 | Link to Comment overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

fcx big drop yr/yr in revenue but beat est..gotta laugh gotta cry the trend is down but everything is great I guess.

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment gdgenius
gdgenius's picture

Gotta find something to complain about I guess....

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 09:19 | Link to Comment catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

CNBC spinning this as a win. Can't MAKE this shit up!

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 09:25 | Link to Comment helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

Aren't these misses on downward revisions of expected earning estimates?

Misses of revised misses?

When they usually leave plenty of room in their fudged numbers to ALWAYS beat it appears reality has finally been finalized.

Prepare for freefall? Approaching terminal velocity!

Please fasten your seatbelts and prepare for re-entry.

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 09:34 | Link to Comment razorthin
razorthin's picture

And apparently bullish for the general equity market.  Unfukkingbelievable.

Mon, 10/22/2012 - 12:27 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Just read the tickers phonetically...that'd be the sounds being made by people holding those stocks.

Show of hands: how many people believe these numbers?


Mon, 10/22/2012 - 13:23 | Link to Comment TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

CAT will be fine once the orders start coming in for heavy equipment to rebuild Syria, Iran and the area where Israel was.

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