"If" Becomes "When"

Tyler Durden's picture


Via Mark J. Grant, author of Out of the Box,

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:
               -Rudyard Kipling

  • If the Central banks are done printing
  • If there is to be no more flood of liquidity spilling into the world that required Noah’s Ark
  • That buoyed the equity markets; that compressed the bond markets
  • If the ECB will never do one thing because the EU cannot agree on them to do it
  • If Greece cannot agree on the mandated austerity measures and so new elections are called
  • If Spain asks for money and Germany says it is a legacy issue and it is Spain’s problem
  • If money for Cyprus cannot be agreed to
  • If Portugal appears back at the till
  • If Catalonia decides that it no longer wishes to be part of Spain
  • If China has a slow-down which is far past the common thinking
  • If a new leader appears in Germany who wants to retain the nation for its people
  • If the nations in Europe cannot agree on a banking supervisor or while funding the ESM refuse to hand over their country’s money to other nations any longer
  • If the recession in Europe is worsening and deepening and broadening and the distance across the Atlantic shrinks by the recession’s intensity

Then “If” is no longer “If” and it grows up and becomes “When” and perhaps that moment has begun and the consequences will be soon enough.

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Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:45 | 2914298 Rainman
Rainman's picture

I counted 13 black swans. That's a very good flyover.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:47 | 2914311 The_Euro_Sucks
The_Euro_Sucks's picture

At least as many swans for the US dollar, UK pound etc. How come I never hear mr Grant about that? Some agenda to sell?

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:52 | 2914321 knukles
knukles's picture

Which means none of 'em are Black Swans anymore.

Just Conspiracy Theories

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 20:19 | 2914543 flacon
flacon's picture

Buy VXX calls and convert the electronic winnings into silver. 

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 21:30 | 2914693 markmotive
markmotive's picture

And there won't be a warning when one of those black swans crashes the system.


Tue, 10/23/2012 - 21:11 | 2914649 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

I gave you +1 #13... that's GOT to be bullish, right?



Wed, 10/24/2012 - 08:15 | 2915344 Bogdog
Bogdog's picture

They are not Black Swans to you and me, for we anticipate the event. To the greater population they will indeed be Black Swans.


1. wholy unexpected

2. major impact

3. rationalized after the fact as predictable

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:47 | 2914306 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Are 13 black swans enough to kill a herd of skittle shitting unicorns?

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:53 | 2914334 Essential Nexus
Essential Nexus's picture

In my experience, about 70% of the time.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:00 | 2914363 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

In other words, Jon Corzine would take the other side of the trade.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 23:27 | 2914867 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Actually, I think it's more his style to facilitate the trade, then take all of it.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:47 | 2914309 Martial
Martial's picture

Consequences will never be the same.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:53 | 2914336 Karlus
Karlus's picture

I backtraced you with the cyber police.


Sadly, the captain of industry that uttered those immortal words is no longer with us

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 20:07 | 2914523 max2205
max2205's picture

If pigs could fly

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:49 | 2914313 macholatte
macholatte's picture



Dark Helmet: When does this happen in the movie?!
Colonel Sandurz: "Now", sir. You're looking at "now". Everything happening now is happening "now".
Dark Helmet: What happened to "then"?
Colonel Sandurz: We passed "then".
Dark Helmet: When!?
Colonel Sandurz: Just now. Were at "now," now.
Dark Helmet: Go back to "then"!
Colonel Sandurz: When?
Dark Helmet: Now!
Colonel Sandurz: "Now?"
Dark Helmet: Now!
Colonel Sandurz: I can't.
Dark Helmet: Why!?
Colonel Sandurz: We missed it.
Dark Helmet: When!?
Colonel Sandurz: Just now.
Dark Helmet: ... When will "then" be "now"?
Colonel Sandurz: Soon.



Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:55 | 2914344 HungryPorkChop
HungryPorkChop's picture

Good post. I've heard so many predictions that my head is spinning.  Most were supposed to have happened in 2009, then 2010, then 2011, then definitely in 2012...

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:48 | 2914464 q99x2
q99x2's picture

If you need more to read check out Graham Summers articles. He's been wrong for at least 4 years but keeps on writing. He'll be right eventually.

TVIX is at a bargain basement price of a buck 55 if you feel like dabling. If you are wrong though you can buy more next month for a buck 25.

I thought it was a good price at 10 bucks.

Maybe you should try FAZ instead.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 20:28 | 2914554 Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

HungryPorkChop...and 2013 just around the corner...


and q99...I hear ya on the TVIX...I thought the same on SPXU back before it did a 1 for 10 reverse split! :(

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 21:39 | 2914708 samsara
samsara's picture

In the end of the story, the wolf ate the sheep...

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:12 | 2914392 HD
HD's picture


Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:49 | 2914317 Manthong
Manthong's picture


"It's easy to grin
when your ship comes in
and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile
is the man who can smile
when his shorts are too tight in the seat".
-Judge Elihu Smails
Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:55 | 2914341 Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture


Spalding, get ur foot off the boat!

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 21:37 | 2914704 samsara
samsara's picture

Five bucks says he eats it.....

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:52 | 2914330 Karlus
Karlus's picture

These articles (this and the one before) are some incredible navel gazing whiny sad sack drivel.

Look, there are challenges, but it reminds me of the 87 crash. It was bad, but it recovered. The end of the 70's were terrible. Long gas lines, mortgages in double digits, terrible clothes. The 70s gave way to the gonzo 80s where almost every invention we use today has a predecessor in the 80s. Or the huge gains produced by the internet.

Why all of the whining? America in particular is going to do just fine out of this. We have more energy than anyone, are geographically isolated and have a strong military. We have food and friendlies to the north and south of us. Compared to other places in the world, the usa will be fine.

We are also ignoring advances in automation, biotech and AI. Its just around the corner. We are only now discovering how our bodies are put together and have yet to take advantage of serious computing power to create designer drugs. There is so much more yet to discover and get this....make money from.

This malaise is only temporary and much of it is self inflicted. You cry about the dumb populace watching Idol, well news flash, the populace has ALWAYS been dumb. Go google what people looked like in the 70s and what information they had access to and what their leaders said at the time. Its sorry crap. The kid of the douche with the big sideburns would be driving that sweet Porsche Turbo in 83 just a few years later.

I think as soon as we decide to wake up we will. The world is yours!

Act like it, Scarface

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:00 | 2914364 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

To Oceania!

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:41 | 2914449 Whiner
Whiner's picture

Ever seen $16,000,000,000,000 before? How about $20,000,000,000,000 "baked in"? Pucker up your optimism!

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 23:52 | 2914905 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

$20 Trillion National Debt in 4 years is the best argument to buy Silver now! 


$16 Trill now, gold $1700.......$20 Trill in 4 years, Gold.......?   ($2125?)

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:47 | 2914465 balz
balz's picture

Peai Oil is permanent. Sorry, but no economic voodoos and drug laundering money to save Wall Street this time. Be a man and accept the fact that this time it IS different.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 21:00 | 2914629 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

balz: oh shit, another bad situation with oil:

"Peai Oil is permanent."

Dang, we had peak oil, coal fired cars, nuclear meltdowns, now "Peai Oil".

I'ma shivverin'

- Ned

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 21:34 | 2914698 samsara
samsara's picture

You know that and I know that but it will come as a suprise to most people that there will never be GROWTH again.

PEak Oil

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 21:16 | 2914651 HD
HD's picture

Volcker raised interest rates to 20%, endured massive protests and got himself fired to save the economy. You think the current Fed chairman would do that? Without real courage to make the hard choices the US will follow the Japan model of endless promises and massive spiraling debt.

I'm sure Ben or his expected replacement Larry Summers, will see the light and raise rates - or, you know, they will just print endlessly and go to for work for Goldman or Blackrock.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 07:51 | 2915297 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

I think Karlus missed 2008.

Who needs to wake up?  The person who is sleeping on the edge of the cliff.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:53 | 2914337 FreeMktFisherMN
FreeMktFisherMN's picture

nope. FB rally stoking dow futures to solid green already. /sarc.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:53 | 2914339 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

If we can be free from the tyranny of central banks (read corporations, bankers, politicians) then we can be free to create real opportunity for all, but until that moment in time we will forever be lost to slavery with no real hope for freedom.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 22:56 | 2914829 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

"If" is the middle word in life.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:05 | 2914375 Darkness
Darkness's picture

"If" Ron Paul is finally elected President...

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:06 | 2914377 Will To Live
Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:09 | 2914386 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

If doesn't become when. If pigs could fly.. But they can't, and when pigs can fly is absurd.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:44 | 2914410 obessoligarch
obessoligarch's picture

there's an if missing here......what if turkey invades syria?

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 21:01 | 2914631 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

nope, no flyin' here.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:14 | 2914395 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Christ, we've been posting here while waiting for the apocalypse for something like 3 years already.  

This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:35 | 2914435 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

And one of these days we will be right. ... Just not today.... Maybe tomorrow .... Or next Tuesday.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 20:07 | 2914521 SMG
SMG's picture

There is so much bad stuff in the system.  It HAS to be cleared.  The Powers That Be (TPTB) have held it off for the last few years, getting themselves prepared, but how much longer?  Could be days or at least a year or two, but make no mistake IT IS COMING and their is no avoiding it.  Till then we just prepare and try and protect our family, and say a prayer for the regular people who are going to have to suffer becuase of this awful system set to self desctruct by our overlords.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 20:54 | 2914618 samsara
samsara's picture

A new play, "Waiting for the apocalypse or someone like him..."

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:16 | 2914398 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

If becomes when, "Whence", you are looking up through the (TURDS), in the swirling water!

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:20 | 2914409 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I stopped at number one because the central banks will never stop printing. They can't stop and they won't. They will print until it all blows up.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:50 | 2914478 fuu
fuu's picture

but but but bernanke unemployed


Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:46 | 2914463 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

-Our main business is not to see what lies dimly at a distance, but to do what lies clearly at hand.

-In the long-run every Government is the exact symbol of its People, with their wisdom and unwisdom; we have to say, Like People like Government.

  -Thomas Carlyle

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 20:50 | 2914605 samsara
samsara's picture

. . all the odds are on the man who is, intrinsically, the most devious and mediocre — the man who can most easily (and) adeptly disperse the notion that his mind is a virtual vacuum. The presidency tends, year by year, to go to such men. As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day, the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."

-- H.L. Mencken July 26, 1920, wrote in The Baltimore Sun: " .

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 20:52 | 2914610 samsara
samsara's picture

Actually, I had thought we had hit with Dubya...

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