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"If" Becomes "When"

Tyler Durden's picture


Via Mark J. Grant, author of Out of the Box,

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:
               -Rudyard Kipling

  • If the Central banks are done printing
  • If there is to be no more flood of liquidity spilling into the world that required Noah’s Ark
  • That buoyed the equity markets; that compressed the bond markets
  • If the ECB will never do one thing because the EU cannot agree on them to do it
  • If Greece cannot agree on the mandated austerity measures and so new elections are called
  • If Spain asks for money and Germany says it is a legacy issue and it is Spain’s problem
  • If money for Cyprus cannot be agreed to
  • If Portugal appears back at the till
  • If Catalonia decides that it no longer wishes to be part of Spain
  • If China has a slow-down which is far past the common thinking
  • If a new leader appears in Germany who wants to retain the nation for its people
  • If the nations in Europe cannot agree on a banking supervisor or while funding the ESM refuse to hand over their country’s money to other nations any longer
  • If the recession in Europe is worsening and deepening and broadening and the distance across the Atlantic shrinks by the recession’s intensity

Then “If” is no longer “If” and it grows up and becomes “When” and perhaps that moment has begun and the consequences will be soon enough.


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Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:45 | 2914298 Rainman
Rainman's picture

I counted 13 black swans. That's a very good flyover.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:47 | 2914311 The_Euro_Sucks
The_Euro_Sucks's picture

At least as many swans for the US dollar, UK pound etc. How come I never hear mr Grant about that? Some agenda to sell?

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:52 | 2914321 knukles
knukles's picture

Which means none of 'em are Black Swans anymore.

Just Conspiracy Theories

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 20:19 | 2914543 flacon
flacon's picture

Buy VXX calls and convert the electronic winnings into silver. 

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 21:30 | 2914693 markmotive
markmotive's picture

And there won't be a warning when one of those black swans crashes the system.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 21:11 | 2914649 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

I gave you +1 #13... that's GOT to be bullish, right?



Wed, 10/24/2012 - 08:15 | 2915344 Bogdog
Bogdog's picture

They are not Black Swans to you and me, for we anticipate the event. To the greater population they will indeed be Black Swans.


1. wholy unexpected

2. major impact

3. rationalized after the fact as predictable

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:47 | 2914306 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Are 13 black swans enough to kill a herd of skittle shitting unicorns?

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:53 | 2914334 Essential Nexus
Essential Nexus's picture

In my experience, about 70% of the time.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:00 | 2914363 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

In other words, Jon Corzine would take the other side of the trade.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 23:27 | 2914867 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Actually, I think it's more his style to facilitate the trade, then take all of it.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:47 | 2914309 Martial
Martial's picture

Consequences will never be the same.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:53 | 2914336 Karlus
Karlus's picture

I backtraced you with the cyber police.


Sadly, the captain of industry that uttered those immortal words is no longer with us

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 20:07 | 2914523 max2205
max2205's picture

If pigs could fly

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:49 | 2914313 macholatte
macholatte's picture



Dark Helmet: When does this happen in the movie?!
Colonel Sandurz: "Now", sir. You're looking at "now". Everything happening now is happening "now".
Dark Helmet: What happened to "then"?
Colonel Sandurz: We passed "then".
Dark Helmet: When!?
Colonel Sandurz: Just now. Were at "now," now.
Dark Helmet: Go back to "then"!
Colonel Sandurz: When?
Dark Helmet: Now!
Colonel Sandurz: "Now?"
Dark Helmet: Now!
Colonel Sandurz: I can't.
Dark Helmet: Why!?
Colonel Sandurz: We missed it.
Dark Helmet: When!?
Colonel Sandurz: Just now.
Dark Helmet: ... When will "then" be "now"?
Colonel Sandurz: Soon.



Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:55 | 2914344 HungryPorkChop
HungryPorkChop's picture

Good post. I've heard so many predictions that my head is spinning.  Most were supposed to have happened in 2009, then 2010, then 2011, then definitely in 2012...

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:48 | 2914464 q99x2
q99x2's picture

If you need more to read check out Graham Summers articles. He's been wrong for at least 4 years but keeps on writing. He'll be right eventually.

TVIX is at a bargain basement price of a buck 55 if you feel like dabling. If you are wrong though you can buy more next month for a buck 25.

I thought it was a good price at 10 bucks.

Maybe you should try FAZ instead.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 20:28 | 2914554 Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

HungryPorkChop...and 2013 just around the corner...


and q99...I hear ya on the TVIX...I thought the same on SPXU back before it did a 1 for 10 reverse split! :(

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 21:39 | 2914708 samsara
samsara's picture

In the end of the story, the wolf ate the sheep...

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:12 | 2914392 HD
HD's picture


Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:49 | 2914317 Manthong
Manthong's picture


"It's easy to grin
when your ship comes in
and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile
is the man who can smile
when his shorts are too tight in the seat".
-Judge Elihu Smails
Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:55 | 2914341 Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture


Spalding, get ur foot off the boat!

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 21:37 | 2914704 samsara
samsara's picture

Five bucks says he eats it.....

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:52 | 2914330 Karlus
Karlus's picture

These articles (this and the one before) are some incredible navel gazing whiny sad sack drivel.

Look, there are challenges, but it reminds me of the 87 crash. It was bad, but it recovered. The end of the 70's were terrible. Long gas lines, mortgages in double digits, terrible clothes. The 70s gave way to the gonzo 80s where almost every invention we use today has a predecessor in the 80s. Or the huge gains produced by the internet.

Why all of the whining? America in particular is going to do just fine out of this. We have more energy than anyone, are geographically isolated and have a strong military. We have food and friendlies to the north and south of us. Compared to other places in the world, the usa will be fine.

We are also ignoring advances in automation, biotech and AI. Its just around the corner. We are only now discovering how our bodies are put together and have yet to take advantage of serious computing power to create designer drugs. There is so much more yet to discover and get this....make money from.

This malaise is only temporary and much of it is self inflicted. You cry about the dumb populace watching Idol, well news flash, the populace has ALWAYS been dumb. Go google what people looked like in the 70s and what information they had access to and what their leaders said at the time. Its sorry crap. The kid of the douche with the big sideburns would be driving that sweet Porsche Turbo in 83 just a few years later.

I think as soon as we decide to wake up we will. The world is yours!

Act like it, Scarface

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:00 | 2914364 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

To Oceania!

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:07 | 2914378 negative rates
negative rates's picture

There is STILL nothing to fear, but fearith itself!

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:41 | 2914449 Whiner
Whiner's picture

Ever seen $16,000,000,000,000 before? How about $20,000,000,000,000 "baked in"? Pucker up your optimism!

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 23:52 | 2914905 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

$20 Trillion National Debt in 4 years is the best argument to buy Silver now! 


$16 Trill now, gold $1700.......$20 Trill in 4 years, Gold.......?   ($2125?)

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:47 | 2914465 balz
balz's picture

Peai Oil is permanent. Sorry, but no economic voodoos and drug laundering money to save Wall Street this time. Be a man and accept the fact that this time it IS different.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 21:00 | 2914629 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

balz: oh shit, another bad situation with oil:

"Peai Oil is permanent."

Dang, we had peak oil, coal fired cars, nuclear meltdowns, now "Peai Oil".

I'ma shivverin'

- Ned

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 21:34 | 2914698 samsara
samsara's picture

You know that and I know that but it will come as a suprise to most people that there will never be GROWTH again.

PEak Oil

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 21:16 | 2914651 HD
HD's picture

Volcker raised interest rates to 20%, endured massive protests and got himself fired to save the economy. You think the current Fed chairman would do that? Without real courage to make the hard choices the US will follow the Japan model of endless promises and massive spiraling debt.

I'm sure Ben or his expected replacement Larry Summers, will see the light and raise rates - or, you know, they will just print endlessly and go to for work for Goldman or Blackrock.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 07:51 | 2915297 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

I think Karlus missed 2008.

Who needs to wake up?  The person who is sleeping on the edge of the cliff.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:53 | 2914337 FreeMktFisherMN
FreeMktFisherMN's picture

nope. FB rally stoking dow futures to solid green already. /sarc.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:53 | 2914339 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

If we can be free from the tyranny of central banks (read corporations, bankers, politicians) then we can be free to create real opportunity for all, but until that moment in time we will forever be lost to slavery with no real hope for freedom.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 22:56 | 2914829 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

"If" is the middle word in life.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:05 | 2914375 Darkness
Darkness's picture

"If" Ron Paul is finally elected President...

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:06 | 2914377 Will To Live
Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:09 | 2914386 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

If doesn't become when. If pigs could fly.. But they can't, and when pigs can fly is absurd.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:44 | 2914410 obessoligarch
obessoligarch's picture

there's an if missing here......what if turkey invades syria?

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 21:01 | 2914631 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

nope, no flyin' here.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:14 | 2914395 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Christ, we've been posting here while waiting for the apocalypse for something like 3 years already.  

This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:35 | 2914435 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

And one of these days we will be right. ... Just not today.... Maybe tomorrow .... Or next Tuesday.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 20:07 | 2914521 SMG
SMG's picture

There is so much bad stuff in the system.  It HAS to be cleared.  The Powers That Be (TPTB) have held it off for the last few years, getting themselves prepared, but how much longer?  Could be days or at least a year or two, but make no mistake IT IS COMING and their is no avoiding it.  Till then we just prepare and try and protect our family, and say a prayer for the regular people who are going to have to suffer becuase of this awful system set to self desctruct by our overlords.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 20:54 | 2914618 samsara
samsara's picture

A new play, "Waiting for the apocalypse or someone like him..."

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:16 | 2914398 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

If becomes when, "Whence", you are looking up through the (TURDS), in the swirling water!

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:20 | 2914409 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I stopped at number one because the central banks will never stop printing. They can't stop and they won't. They will print until it all blows up.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:50 | 2914478 fuu
fuu's picture

but but but bernanke unemployed


Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:46 | 2914463 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

-Our main business is not to see what lies dimly at a distance, but to do what lies clearly at hand.

-In the long-run every Government is the exact symbol of its People, with their wisdom and unwisdom; we have to say, Like People like Government.

  -Thomas Carlyle

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 20:50 | 2914605 samsara
samsara's picture

. . all the odds are on the man who is, intrinsically, the most devious and mediocre — the man who can most easily (and) adeptly disperse the notion that his mind is a virtual vacuum. The presidency tends, year by year, to go to such men. As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day, the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."

-- H.L. Mencken July 26, 1920, wrote in The Baltimore Sun: " .

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 20:52 | 2914610 samsara
samsara's picture

Actually, I had thought we had hit with Dubya...

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 21:04 | 2914635 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

subsequent events, however, are helping you to revise your thinking, now, aren't they?

- Ned

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:51 | 2914477 zerotohero
zerotohero's picture


Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:56 | 2914495 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

I hope so....I'm gettin' too old for this shit!

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 20:02 | 2914508 crusty curmudgeon
crusty curmudgeon's picture

If you want to know when things will fall apart, I can tell you precisely when.  As soon as Tyler Durden fixes the spelling error in the second link under "Zero Hedge Reads" on the left.  Once you see "Alt-Market" -- well, look out!

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 20:23 | 2914536 LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

The floyds Atom Heart mother Bitchezz


If Lyrics

(Waters) 4:30

If I were a swan, I'd be gone.
If I were a train, I'd be late.
And if I were a good man,
I'd talk with you
More often than I do.

If I were to sleep, I could dream.
If I were afraid, I could hide.
If I go insane, please don't put
Your wires in my brain.

If I were the moon, I'd be cool.
If I were a book, I would bend for you.
If I were a good man, I'd understand
The spaces between friends.

If I were alone, I would cry.
And if I were with you, I'd be home and dry.
And if I go insane,
And they lock me away,
Will you still let me join in the game?

If I were a swan, I'd be gone.
If I were a train, I'd be late again.
If I were a good man,
I'd talk with you
More often than I do.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 20:47 | 2914597 samsara
samsara's picture

Careful with that ax Eugene...

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 20:17 | 2914541 new game
new game's picture

funny how some days it is not a big deal at all, like who gives a shit.

but then the darkness sets in and eyes wide open, mind weighing outcomes and

the problems summarized as problems by the problems solvers promising to solve the very problem they fucking created, loams into my rational thoughts and more dark thoughts, debates to ignore and TPTB not changing a fucking thing because they are in control and have it just the way they want it...

back to trying not to give a shit!

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 20:43 | 2914586 samsara
samsara's picture

Dup (damn touch screens)

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 20:43 | 2914587 samsara
samsara's picture

My favorite poem by kippling. That was just a snippet

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 21:54 | 2914732 realtick
Tue, 10/23/2012 - 21:55 | 2914736 Zaphod B.
Zaphod B.'s picture

Nice was read at Ayn Rand's funeral.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 22:40 | 2914804 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Stop....the Fed is not rational...neither is any Central Bank...who wants responsibility when....even Barney Frank has retired into wealth. Not to mention Chris Dodd..and Jamie, Robert Rubin and Sandy Weill...
They will all vote Obama...just like Chavez... get used to it.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 22:54 | 2914823 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

(Sing a song, brother)
If the sun refused to shine,
I don't mind, I don't mind.
If the mountains fell in the sea,
Let it be, it ain't me.
Got my own world to live through
And I ain't gonna copy you.

Now, if 6 turned up to be 9,
I don't mind, I don't mind.
If all the hippies cut off their hair,
I don't care, I don't care.
Did, 'cos I got my own world to live through
And I ain't gonna copy you.
[ Lyrics from: ]
White-collar conservatives flashing down the street
Pointing their plastic finger at me.
They're hoping soon my kind will drop and die,
But I'm gonna wave my freak flag high . . . HIGH!

Hah, hah
Falling mountains just don't fall on me
Point on mister Buisnessman,
You can't dress like me.
Nobody know what I'm talking about
I've got my own life to live
I'm the one that's gonna have to die
When it's time for me to die
So let me live my life the way I want to.

Yeah . . .
Sing on brother,
Play on brother . . .

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 00:29 | 2914964 LoCicero
LoCicero's picture

Mark Grant is a superb writer and a National Treasure.



In your next piece, quote Kipling's, "The Gods of the Copybook Headings." 

Highly appropriate for today's sick world.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 00:40 | 2914976 serrotmj
serrotmj's picture

Based on all the info and stats courtesy of ZH, I've no doubt that we're approaching the point of no return. Any advice from the financially savy investors here at ZH as to how to best invest to take max advantage of the dowturn as bad as that sounds? What are the best vehicles to short the market and in what sector? To give some background, I'm not a high-rolling investor and have only $1000 to allocate bi weekly. At the moment, I'm looking at SPXU, TZA and TVIX and have some money in them already. Anything else you guys out there recommend?


Wed, 10/24/2012 - 04:34 | 2915147 Tango in the Blight
Tango in the Blight's picture

Buy Silver Eagles with that money.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 06:39 | 2915213 Griffin
Griffin's picture

I think that we have passed the point of no return a long time ago, its not just about economic issues, politics play a big part in this too.

I would think that we are now in a place where the big casino we call markets has lost its credibility and all the tools to cloak this enormous turd, like various forms of money printing, no longer work.

Even if there was genuine will to repair the system i doubt that it would be possible, and even if it was possible it would probably be better to let the whole thing crash.






Wed, 10/24/2012 - 08:15 | 2915341 Stud Duck
Stud Duck's picture

This all started when a out going US president went on national TV and announced that "we face the worst financial disaster since the Great Depression". This statement was made by a President of a country that invaded another country that had nothing to do with a highly sucessful terrorist attack that killed 3,000 civilians.

That statement by s failed president sent the world economy into a no confidence down spin not seen in history.

We had a president in the Great Depression that made a speech of "we have nothing to fear by fear its self" and pulled the people and the economy out of the tail spin and set it in motion to preperation for a war that resulted with that country winning the war and become the most wealth country in world history.

The first Great Depression had a country with 50% of its population living in rural areas and involved in agriculture for economic survival, this 2nd Depression we have only 3% of the population involved in agriculture, the balance of the rest of the popilation are employed in "service industry" jobs that are rapidly being replaced with technology,

We have sown the wind are are now going the reap the whirlwind, but it will be more like a F5 type whirlwind that strips everything to the flat concrete.


Wed, 10/24/2012 - 10:09 | 2915613 Griffin
Griffin's picture

If there was a system meltdown, the wast majority of the assets destroyed would be "valuables" that never existed in the first place. 

America would still have a vell educated work force, good schools, plenty of people with new ideas and all the stuff you see around you, buildings, infrastructure and other material. Its not like things in the real world would vanish into hin air, like our savings and pensions are doing.

It would not be the end of the world, just a end to a miserable situation and possibly a start for something new and better.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 10:31 | 2915668 Wave-Tech
Wave-Tech's picture

The writing is on the wall.  If you haven't already, it's high time to take some Prudent Measures.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 19:20 | 2917129 Random_Robert
Random_Robert's picture

Party like it's 1999....



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