"If" Becomes "When"

Tyler Durden's picture

Via Mark J. Grant, author of Out of the Box,

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:
               -Rudyard Kipling

  • If the Central banks are done printing
  • If there is to be no more flood of liquidity spilling into the world that required Noah’s Ark
  • That buoyed the equity markets; that compressed the bond markets
  • If the ECB will never do one thing because the EU cannot agree on them to do it
  • If Greece cannot agree on the mandated austerity measures and so new elections are called
  • If Spain asks for money and Germany says it is a legacy issue and it is Spain’s problem
  • If money for Cyprus cannot be agreed to
  • If Portugal appears back at the till
  • If Catalonia decides that it no longer wishes to be part of Spain
  • If China has a slow-down which is far past the common thinking
  • If a new leader appears in Germany who wants to retain the nation for its people
  • If the nations in Europe cannot agree on a banking supervisor or while funding the ESM refuse to hand over their country’s money to other nations any longer
  • If the recession in Europe is worsening and deepening and broadening and the distance across the Atlantic shrinks by the recession’s intensity

Then “If” is no longer “If” and it grows up and becomes “When” and perhaps that moment has begun and the consequences will be soon enough.

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Rainman's picture

I counted 13 black swans. That's a very good flyover.

The_Euro_Sucks's picture

At least as many swans for the US dollar, UK pound etc. How come I never hear mr Grant about that? Some agenda to sell?

knukles's picture

Which means none of 'em are Black Swans anymore.

Just Conspiracy Theories

flacon's picture

Buy VXX calls and convert the electronic winnings into silver. 

markmotive's picture

And there won't be a warning when one of those black swans crashes the system.


Ness.'s picture

I gave you +1 #13... that's GOT to be bullish, right?



Bogdog's picture

They are not Black Swans to you and me, for we anticipate the event. To the greater population they will indeed be Black Swans.


1. wholy unexpected

2. major impact

3. rationalized after the fact as predictable

insanelysane's picture

Are 13 black swans enough to kill a herd of skittle shitting unicorns?

Essential Nexus's picture

In my experience, about 70% of the time.

insanelysane's picture

In other words, Jon Corzine would take the other side of the trade.

Agent P's picture

Actually, I think it's more his style to facilitate the trade, then take all of it.

Martial's picture

Consequences will never be the same.

Karlus's picture

I backtraced you with the cyber police.


Sadly, the captain of industry that uttered those immortal words is no longer with us

macholatte's picture



Dark Helmet: When does this happen in the movie?!
Colonel Sandurz: "Now", sir. You're looking at "now". Everything happening now is happening "now".
Dark Helmet: What happened to "then"?
Colonel Sandurz: We passed "then".
Dark Helmet: When!?
Colonel Sandurz: Just now. Were at "now," now.
Dark Helmet: Go back to "then"!
Colonel Sandurz: When?
Dark Helmet: Now!
Colonel Sandurz: "Now?"
Dark Helmet: Now!
Colonel Sandurz: I can't.
Dark Helmet: Why!?
Colonel Sandurz: We missed it.
Dark Helmet: When!?
Colonel Sandurz: Just now.
Dark Helmet: ... When will "then" be "now"?
Colonel Sandurz: Soon.



HungryPorkChop's picture

Good post. I've heard so many predictions that my head is spinning.  Most were supposed to have happened in 2009, then 2010, then 2011, then definitely in 2012...

q99x2's picture

If you need more to read check out Graham Summers articles. He's been wrong for at least 4 years but keeps on writing. He'll be right eventually.

TVIX is at a bargain basement price of a buck 55 if you feel like dabling. If you are wrong though you can buy more next month for a buck 25.

I thought it was a good price at 10 bucks.

Maybe you should try FAZ instead.

Mike in GA's picture

HungryPorkChop...and 2013 just around the corner...


and q99...I hear ya on the TVIX...I thought the same on SPXU back before it did a 1 for 10 reverse split! :(

samsara's picture

In the end of the story, the wolf ate the sheep...

HD's picture


Manthong's picture


"It's easy to grin
when your ship comes in
and you've got the stock market beat.
But the man worthwhile
is the man who can smile
when his shorts are too tight in the seat".
-Judge Elihu Smails
Ineverslice's picture


Spalding, get ur foot off the boat!

samsara's picture

Five bucks says he eats it.....

Karlus's picture

These articles (this and the one before) are some incredible navel gazing whiny sad sack drivel.

Look, there are challenges, but it reminds me of the 87 crash. It was bad, but it recovered. The end of the 70's were terrible. Long gas lines, mortgages in double digits, terrible clothes. The 70s gave way to the gonzo 80s where almost every invention we use today has a predecessor in the 80s. Or the huge gains produced by the internet.

Why all of the whining? America in particular is going to do just fine out of this. We have more energy than anyone, are geographically isolated and have a strong military. We have food and friendlies to the north and south of us. Compared to other places in the world, the usa will be fine.

We are also ignoring advances in automation, biotech and AI. Its just around the corner. We are only now discovering how our bodies are put together and have yet to take advantage of serious computing power to create designer drugs. There is so much more yet to discover and get this....make money from.

This malaise is only temporary and much of it is self inflicted. You cry about the dumb populace watching Idol, well news flash, the populace has ALWAYS been dumb. Go google what people looked like in the 70s and what information they had access to and what their leaders said at the time. Its sorry crap. The kid of the douche with the big sideburns would be driving that sweet Porsche Turbo in 83 just a few years later.

I think as soon as we decide to wake up we will. The world is yours!

Act like it, Scarface

Whiner's picture

Ever seen $16,000,000,000,000 before? How about $20,000,000,000,000 "baked in"? Pucker up your optimism!

ZeroAvatar's picture

$20 Trillion National Debt in 4 years is the best argument to buy Silver now! 


$16 Trill now, gold $1700.......$20 Trill in 4 years, Gold.......?   ($2125?)

balz's picture

Peai Oil is permanent. Sorry, but no economic voodoos and drug laundering money to save Wall Street this time. Be a man and accept the fact that this time it IS different.

New_Meat's picture

balz: oh shit, another bad situation with oil:

"Peai Oil is permanent."

Dang, we had peak oil, coal fired cars, nuclear meltdowns, now "Peai Oil".

I'ma shivverin'

- Ned

samsara's picture

You know that and I know that but it will come as a suprise to most people that there will never be GROWTH again.

PEak Oil

HD's picture

Volcker raised interest rates to 20%, endured massive protests and got himself fired to save the economy. You think the current Fed chairman would do that? Without real courage to make the hard choices the US will follow the Japan model of endless promises and massive spiraling debt.

I'm sure Ben or his expected replacement Larry Summers, will see the light and raise rates - or, you know, they will just print endlessly and go to for work for Goldman or Blackrock.

Vince Clortho's picture

I think Karlus missed 2008.

Who needs to wake up?  The person who is sleeping on the edge of the cliff.

FreeMktFisherMN's picture

nope. FB rally stoking dow futures to solid green already. /sarc.

AldoHux_IV's picture

If we can be free from the tyranny of central banks (read corporations, bankers, politicians) then we can be free to create real opportunity for all, but until that moment in time we will forever be lost to slavery with no real hope for freedom.

A Nanny Moose's picture

"If" is the middle word in life.

Darkness's picture

"If" Ron Paul is finally elected President...

eddiebe's picture

If doesn't become when. If pigs could fly.. But they can't, and when pigs can fly is absurd.

obessoligarch's picture

there's an if missing here......what if turkey invades syria?

The Alarmist's picture

Christ, we've been posting here while waiting for the apocalypse for something like 3 years already.  

This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.

Dr. Engali's picture

And one of these days we will be right. ... Just not today.... Maybe tomorrow .... Or next Tuesday.

SMG's picture

There is so much bad stuff in the system.  It HAS to be cleared.  The Powers That Be (TPTB) have held it off for the last few years, getting themselves prepared, but how much longer?  Could be days or at least a year or two, but make no mistake IT IS COMING and their is no avoiding it.  Till then we just prepare and try and protect our family, and say a prayer for the regular people who are going to have to suffer becuase of this awful system set to self desctruct by our overlords.

samsara's picture

A new play, "Waiting for the apocalypse or someone like him..."

Yen Cross's picture

If becomes when, "Whence", you are looking up through the (TURDS), in the swirling water!

Dr. Engali's picture

I stopped at number one because the central banks will never stop printing. They can't stop and they won't. They will print until it all blows up.

fuu's picture

but but but bernanke unemployed


The Shootist's picture

-Our main business is not to see what lies dimly at a distance, but to do what lies clearly at hand.

-In the long-run every Government is the exact symbol of its People, with their wisdom and unwisdom; we have to say, Like People like Government.

  -Thomas Carlyle

samsara's picture

. . all the odds are on the man who is, intrinsically, the most devious and mediocre — the man who can most easily (and) adeptly disperse the notion that his mind is a virtual vacuum. The presidency tends, year by year, to go to such men. As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day, the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."

-- H.L. Mencken July 26, 1920, wrote in The Baltimore Sun: " .

samsara's picture

Actually, I had thought we had hit with Dubya...