Kaminsky On The Election: "The Easy Money Days Are Gone"

Tyler Durden's picture

While many are blaming today's weakness on DuPont and a final awakening that earnings might not hockey-stick as consensus believes, CNBC's Gary Kaminsky has an interesting angle that is gaining ground among desks. We can argue all day long that central bank actions have driven a 'wedge' between fundamentals and market prices (as we did here) and as Gary himself notes "printing money around the world does not help corporate profits" but Kaminsky's view of today's weakness is more nuanced to the outcomes of the election. Critically, he makes the case that the market is starting to realize that whoever wins in two weeks, there is a more negative bias post-election. From Obama's higher taxes and more-of-the-same sluggish economy to Romney's potential China-Trade-war, an implied strong-USD-policy, and potentially the end of the 'Bernanke-Put'; Kaminsky says "the easy money days are gone" and warns of a 1000 point correction being possible.


Starting at around 4:15 in this clip - starting with some technicals, Kaminsky then goes on to discuss (at 5:10) the election outcomes and market scenarios:



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Gene Parmesan's picture

OMG! A thousand point correction!?



the not so mighty maximiza's picture

i hear that, -2000 or -5000 day would work for me.

Careless Whisper's picture

The Careless Whisper BREAKING NEWS UPDATE & Threadjacking

John Paulson Donates $100 Million To "Charity"; Millions To Keep The Lawn Cut And Tulips Trimmed In NYC's Central Park For Fifth Avenue Residents


Dalago's picture

Not if the central banks has to do with any with this!

MillionDollarBogus_'s picture

The use of this 'hockey-stick' term is interesting. 

Related to the fact that the NHL is broken, again, and may miss another season due to players & owners squabbling over money..??

gmrpeabody's picture

Now that the bond auction is complete..., they will let the hopium resume!

Parabolic's picture

Hockey Sticks can be turned upside down you know:


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knukles's picture

All I can say is what with stocks having been up 15+% as of a few days ago, his timing is better than mine because I didn't own any.
Oh, pshaw.

Happy happy joy joy

Stocks been elevating on "hot air", unicorn farts and whatever else don't make sense.

You (PTB) can keep your hot air.
I'll keep everything else you all slighted me about (gold, pogo sticks, Bibles if that's what rocks your socks, no white wine, faux racism which I am not and take great exception to your accusations, Mr Matthews and I'm really tired of being lectured to about what you all bastards think how I must live my Life, etc.)

Stock Tips Investment's picture

Although it seems pointless, markets may suffer a correction of more than 1,000 points. The huge amounts of money that the Fed and the ECB have injected into the economy, have led to financial markets and to "plug holes" of expenditures "made ??earlier". Consequently, corporate profits have not been benefited by these measures. And the "real" economy has not had a very big boost. Considering that Spain went into recession in the next three months and probably the rest of Europe will do next. It is very difficult to foresee that markets may suffer a significant adjustment.

Duke of Con Dao's picture

fits perfectly with the re-armament plans of the Central Park Conservancy.

aint no fortunate son's picture

cue major intraday short squeeze minutes after kaminski "news" is distributed

JPM Hater001's picture

I not settling for anything short of the crash but between here and there 4000 would help my shorts...and get the wife off my back about making money...oh Ill make money baby.

Stock Tips Investment's picture

Indeed, it will be a time to take advantage of short positions. What many people need to understand that you can benefit from these policy mistakes. The worst thing is to do nothing and wait for the "things change." In between, his money can disappear.

Downtoolong's picture

Me too. I'm in cash, and thinking -1000 wouldn't be nearly enough to get me buying in.

Let's talk percentages, since nominal amounts mean nothing anymore.  Like -50%.

I always liked the 50% correction rule as a guide, up or down. It seemed to work for Facebook in no time at all.


LMAOLORI's picture



Same here and going off the Fiscal Cliff will make the dollar stronger not weaker in 2008 people ran to the dollar not away from it.

If US Goes Over ‘Fiscal Cliff,’ Dollar Could Fly

Published: Tuesday, 23 Oct 2012 |


In times of trouble, investors tend to flee to the comfort of the U.S. dollar — even when the trouble is emanating from the U.S

If Congress fails to reach a deficit reduction deal by the end of the year, it will automatically trigger big spending cuts and tax increases in 2013. This so-called "fiscal cliff"would hit the still-recovering U.S. economy hard.

 But rather than bring the dollar down with it, the automatic spending cuts could be viewed as a sign of fiscal discipline that would benefit the currency.

 Even if a protracted period of negotiations injects a heavy level of uncertainty into the markets, that could benefit safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasurys, and therefore the dollar.

dracos_ghost's picture

Wealthy being advised to sell into 2013 tax uncertainty. Never underestimate the herd mentality of the "wealthy intellectual elite". Could be a catalyst.



Buck Johnson's picture

I totally agree wtih the 2,000 to 5,000 correction, the 1,000 correction isn't nothing.

j0nx's picture

Exactly. A mere burp in the scheme of things. Easily made up over a week or two.

Zero Govt's picture

"...and warns of a 1000 point correction being possible..."

So fucking ready for a crash, bring it on, pleeeease

like watching F1 or Daytona 500 you just want a crash. We're all turning into sick fucks, terrible!

oh well, pass the 'BBQ'd at the Stake Wall Street Banker' flavoured popcorn, very moor'ish taste, yum yum

Water Is Wet's picture

The best crashes happen at Talledega.  Here's the one from this year.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=NIHfsbrBpFU

Zero Govt's picture

now THAT is a crash, thanks :)

The trend is your friend's picture

I don't care what you say Gene, a 1000 point SPX correction is significant / Sarc

blabam's picture

Didn't he get the QEternity memo? 

Zero Govt's picture

if CNBC are calling it, it's a head feint bear trap

BigJim's picture

Exactly... and as for Romney ending the Bernanke put... Romney wants to increase spending on the military, increase US intervention around the world... and is somehow going to reduce the deficit? What about the actual debt? How is rolling that over going to be feasible without more 'easy money'?

Zero Govt's picture

you mean a politician has spent his ever-expansive budget even before doing the maths?

that's a shocker

is that why Timyah is in such a pickle and can't balalnce a budget?

the politicians failed to sort it out, 600 eminent Committees in DC can't resolve it, Congress couldn't work it out, the Senate were just as clueless, and Super Committee failed, despite the hyperbolic billing, even more miserably

..and these clowns are supposed to Govern us???

RationalPrepper's picture

1,000 point correction...is he talking DOW or S&P?

Gene Parmesan's picture

Somebody didn't actually watch the video.

nofluer's picture

Don't NEED no steenking video... or the Flash it rides in on.

malikai's picture

Believeing that Rombot is going to start a trade war is pretty hilarious.

I think Robney's history as a champion of LBO and outsourcing indicate he will behave otherwise.

machineh's picture

Why start a crappy trade war, when you can unilaterally start a REAL one and then pimp-walk onto a carrier and declare 'mission accomplished'?

malikai's picture

Now that's the kind of ambition it takes to be president. Have you thought about a rewarding life in public service?

DormRoom's picture

Peak credit ended in 2007.

Lost Wages's picture

Just kick back and wait for the Euro to go back up. 

q99x2's picture

DuPont. Haven't heard that name since one of the owners was out shooting the neighbor kids in his lawn.

Quinvarius's picture

The move over 15k is going to be epic with all these beartards running around.  That is Goldman standing behind you telling you it is raining.  I don't even like the economy, but I know what is coming.

They don't print for the economy.  They print for the banks.  That is how I knew QE3 was coming and how I know QE4 is just around the corner.  QE3 was an annuity, the bankers need JG Wentworth.  The printing will continue because without it we don't have banks.  The Fed exists to protect banks with its magic printing press. 

All this bear nonsense is like watching a re-run of a bad movie.  I have seen it all before.  My thesis is bullish.  Markets move on easy money and easy credit.

tickhound's picture

"That is how I knew QE3 was coming and how I know QE4 is just around the corner."

Dude, Ray Charles saw it coming.

rqb1's picture

Quin, i agree with you and gary k, where that leads me, i dont know.  one thing i might add is that mitt will allow this house of cards to fall initially, only to rebuild it upon reelection time.

WALLST8MY8BALL's picture

However, The Regular Guy Look is making a comeback!

Dr. Engali's picture

How can that anaylist  say wallstreet didn't expect to hear what the heard. We all knew earnings were headed south. Kaminski has it right, printing solves nothing.

fonzannoon's picture

Romney wants a stronger dollar and will appoint a strong dollar fed chief. I better head to the cash for gold store quickly.

fuu's picture

wtf you too?

Where are you all getting this delusion that Romney will appoint a new Fed Chair that is not like the last few?

It's coming from the tv isn't it?

fonzannoon's picture

me too?

I watched the video. That's what Gary Kaminsky told me. So it must be true. Sorry I need to get off this thing before the cash for gold place gets packed.

 edit- I really need a sarc there? Wake the f up. Kaminsky is either stupid or evil to imply that any fed head can possibly turn this ship around. If they renounced QE the dow would be cut in half. What are they going to do, raise rates? Watch what happens. Again, he is either incredibly stupid, or evil.

fuu's picture

Ok it does come from the tv then. Carry on.

Snoopy the Economist's picture

Fonz: How in hell can a strong dollar occur with over $16T debt - with ZIRP they pay 3% interest which is ~ $480B a yr. If interest rates increase USA is BK.