Kaminsky On The Election: "The Easy Money Days Are Gone"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While many are blaming today's weakness on DuPont and a final awakening that earnings might not hockey-stick as consensus believes, CNBC's Gary Kaminsky has an interesting angle that is gaining ground among desks. We can argue all day long that central bank actions have driven a 'wedge' between fundamentals and market prices (as we did here) and as Gary himself notes "printing money around the world does not help corporate profits" but Kaminsky's view of today's weakness is more nuanced to the outcomes of the election. Critically, he makes the case that the market is starting to realize that whoever wins in two weeks, there is a more negative bias post-election. From Obama's higher taxes and more-of-the-same sluggish economy to Romney's potential China-Trade-war, an implied strong-USD-policy, and potentially the end of the 'Bernanke-Put'; Kaminsky says "the easy money days are gone" and warns of a 1000 point correction being possible.

 

Starting at around 4:15 in this clip - starting with some technicals, Kaminsky then goes on to discuss (at 5:10) the election outcomes and market scenarios:

 

 

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Tue, 10/23/2012 - 12:31 | 2913035 Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

OMG! A thousand point correction!?

 

Yawn.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 12:36 | 2913049 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

i hear that, -2000 or -5000 day would work for me.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 12:42 | 2913069 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

The Careless Whisper BREAKING NEWS UPDATE & Threadjacking

John Paulson Donates $100 Million To "Charity"; Millions To Keep The Lawn Cut And Tulips Trimmed In NYC's Central Park For Fifth Avenue Residents

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/nyregion/billionaire-donates-100-million-to-central-park.html?hp&_r=0

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 12:44 | 2913077 Dalago
Dalago's picture

Not if the central banks has to do with any with this!

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 13:03 | 2913131 MillionDollarBogus_
MillionDollarBogus_'s picture

The use of this 'hockey-stick' term is interesting. 

Related to the fact that the NHL is broken, again, and may miss another season due to players & owners squabbling over money..??

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 13:09 | 2913143 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Now that the bond auction is complete..., they will let the hopium resume!

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 13:16 | 2913157 Parabolic
Parabolic's picture

Hockey Sticks can be turned upside down you know:

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Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:13 | 2913827 NooooB
NooooB's picture

Oh, so NOW CNBC is right?... Good lord....

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 13:17 | 2913134 knukles
knukles's picture

All I can say is what with stocks having been up 15+% as of a few days ago, his timing is better than mine because I didn't own any.
Oh, pshaw.

Happy happy joy joy

Stocks been elevating on "hot air", unicorn farts and whatever else don't make sense.

You (PTB) can keep your hot air.
I'll keep everything else you all slighted me about (gold, pogo sticks, Bibles if that's what rocks your socks, no white wine, faux racism which I am not and take great exception to your accusations, Mr Matthews and I'm really tired of being lectured to about what you all bastards think how I must live my Life, etc.)

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 13:23 | 2913190 Stock Tips Inve...
Stock Tips Investment's picture

Although it seems pointless, markets may suffer a correction of more than 1,000 points. The huge amounts of money that the Fed and the ECB have injected into the economy, have led to financial markets and to "plug holes" of expenditures "made ??earlier". Consequently, corporate profits have not been benefited by these measures. And the "real" economy has not had a very big boost. Considering that Spain went into recession in the next three months and probably the rest of Europe will do next. It is very difficult to foresee that markets may suffer a significant adjustment.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 13:01 | 2913124 Duke of Con Dao
Duke of Con Dao's picture

fits perfectly with the re-armament plans of the Central Park Conservancy.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 13:08 | 2913135 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

cue major intraday short squeeze minutes after kaminski "news" is distributed

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 12:43 | 2913073 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I not settling for anything short of the crash but between here and there 4000 would help my shorts...and get the wife off my back about making money...oh Ill make money baby.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 13:26 | 2913198 Stock Tips Inve...
Stock Tips Investment's picture

Indeed, it will be a time to take advantage of short positions. What many people need to understand that you can benefit from these policy mistakes. The worst thing is to do nothing and wait for the "things change." In between, his money can disappear.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 12:52 | 2913081 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Me too. I'm in cash, and thinking -1000 wouldn't be nearly enough to get me buying in.

Let's talk percentages, since nominal amounts mean nothing anymore.  Like -50%.

I always liked the 50% correction rule as a guide, up or down. It seemed to work for Facebook in no time at all.

 

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 13:40 | 2913241 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

Same here and going off the Fiscal Cliff will make the dollar stronger not weaker in 2008 people ran to the dollar not away from it.

If US Goes Over ‘Fiscal Cliff,’ Dollar Could Fly

Published: Tuesday, 23 Oct 2012 |

snip

In times of trouble, investors tend to flee to the comfort of the U.S. dollar — even when the trouble is emanating from the U.S

If Congress fails to reach a deficit reduction deal by the end of the year, it will automatically trigger big spending cuts and tax increases in 2013. This so-called "fiscal cliff"would hit the still-recovering U.S. economy hard.

 But rather than bring the dollar down with it, the automatic spending cuts could be viewed as a sign of fiscal discipline that would benefit the currency.

 Even if a protracted period of negotiations injects a heavy level of uncertainty into the markets, that could benefit safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasurys, and therefore the dollar.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 13:11 | 2913148 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

Wealthy being advised to sell into 2013 tax uncertainty. Never underestimate the herd mentality of the "wealthy intellectual elite". Could be a catalyst.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-19/wealthy-advised-to-sell-for-gai...

 

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 19:34 | 2914429 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

I totally agree wtih the 2,000 to 5,000 correction, the 1,000 correction isn't nothing.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 12:36 | 2913051 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Exactly. A mere burp in the scheme of things. Easily made up over a week or two.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 13:07 | 2913117 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"...and warns of a 1000 point correction being possible..."

So fucking ready for a crash, bring it on, pleeeease

like watching F1 or Daytona 500 you just want a crash. We're all turning into sick fucks, terrible!

oh well, pass the 'BBQ'd at the Stake Wall Street Banker' flavoured popcorn, very moor'ish taste, yum yum

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 13:44 | 2913258 Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

The best crashes happen at Talledega.  Here's the one from this year.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=NIHfsbrBpFU

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 14:01 | 2913292 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

now THAT is a crash, thanks :)

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 13:23 | 2913192 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

I don't care what you say Gene, a 1000 point SPX correction is significant / Sarc

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 12:32 | 2913036 blabam
blabam's picture

Didn't he get the QEternity memo? 

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 13:07 | 2913136 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

if CNBC are calling it, it's a head feint bear trap

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 13:15 | 2913164 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Exactly... and as for Romney ending the Bernanke put... Romney wants to increase spending on the military, increase US intervention around the world... and is somehow going to reduce the deficit? What about the actual debt? How is rolling that over going to be feasible without more 'easy money'?

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 13:55 | 2913283 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

you mean a politician has spent his ever-expansive budget even before doing the maths?

that's a shocker

is that why Timyah is in such a pickle and can't balalnce a budget?

the politicians failed to sort it out, 600 eminent Committees in DC can't resolve it, Congress couldn't work it out, the Senate were just as clueless, and Super Committee failed, despite the hyperbolic billing, even more miserably

..and these clowns are supposed to Govern us???

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 12:31 | 2913037 RationalPrepper
RationalPrepper's picture

1,000 point correction...is he talking DOW or S&P?

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 12:37 | 2913058 Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

DOW

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 13:19 | 2913179 Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

Somebody didn't actually watch the video.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:03 | 2913791 nofluer
nofluer's picture

Don't NEED no steenking video... or the Flash it rides in on.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 12:33 | 2913039 malikai
malikai's picture

Believeing that Rombot is going to start a trade war is pretty hilarious.

I think Robney's history as a champion of LBO and outsourcing indicate he will behave otherwise.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 12:57 | 2913115 machineh
machineh's picture

Why start a crappy trade war, when you can unilaterally start a REAL one and then pimp-walk onto a carrier and declare 'mission accomplished'?

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 13:54 | 2913278 malikai
malikai's picture

Now that's the kind of ambition it takes to be president. Have you thought about a rewarding life in public service?

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 12:36 | 2913046 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

Peak credit ended in 2007.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 12:35 | 2913048 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Just kick back and wait for the Euro to go back up. 

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 12:38 | 2913059 q99x2
q99x2's picture

DuPont. Haven't heard that name since one of the owners was out shooting the neighbor kids in his lawn.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 12:55 | 2913060 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

The move over 15k is going to be epic with all these beartards running around.  That is Goldman standing behind you telling you it is raining.  I don't even like the economy, but I know what is coming.

They don't print for the economy.  They print for the banks.  That is how I knew QE3 was coming and how I know QE4 is just around the corner.  QE3 was an annuity, the bankers need JG Wentworth.  The printing will continue because without it we don't have banks.  The Fed exists to protect banks with its magic printing press. 

All this bear nonsense is like watching a re-run of a bad movie.  I have seen it all before.  My thesis is bullish.  Markets move on easy money and easy credit.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 13:01 | 2913118 tickhound
tickhound's picture

"That is how I knew QE3 was coming and how I know QE4 is just around the corner."

Dude, Ray Charles saw it coming.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 13:10 | 2913139 rqb1
rqb1's picture

Quin, i agree with you and gary k, where that leads me, i dont know.  one thing i might add is that mitt will allow this house of cards to fall initially, only to rebuild it upon reelection time.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 15:12 | 2913586 ZackLo
Tue, 10/23/2012 - 12:37 | 2913061 WALLST8MY8BALL
WALLST8MY8BALL's picture

However, The Regular Guy Look is making a comeback!

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 12:37 | 2913062 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

How can that anaylist  say wallstreet didn't expect to hear what the heard. We all knew earnings were headed south. Kaminski has it right, printing solves nothing.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 12:39 | 2913065 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Romney wants a stronger dollar and will appoint a strong dollar fed chief. I better head to the cash for gold store quickly.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 12:42 | 2913071 fuu
fuu's picture

wtf you too?

Where are you all getting this delusion that Romney will appoint a new Fed Chair that is not like the last few?

It's coming from the tv isn't it?

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 12:48 | 2913076 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

me too?

I watched the video. That's what Gary Kaminsky told me. So it must be true. Sorry I need to get off this thing before the cash for gold place gets packed.

 edit- I really need a sarc there? Wake the f up. Kaminsky is either stupid or evil to imply that any fed head can possibly turn this ship around. If they renounced QE the dow would be cut in half. What are they going to do, raise rates? Watch what happens. Again, he is either incredibly stupid, or evil.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 12:55 | 2913112 fuu
fuu's picture

Ok it does come from the tv then. Carry on.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 13:01 | 2913127 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

sounds good

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 14:03 | 2913298 Snoopy the Economist
Snoopy the Economist's picture

Fonz: How in hell can a strong dollar occur with over $16T debt - with ZIRP they pay 3% interest which is ~ $480B a yr. If interest rates increase USA is BK.

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