• Sprott Money
    05/05/2016 - 06:02
    Why is a Deutsche Bank mouthpiece suggesting “negative retail deposit rates or perhaps wealth taxes”? The answer is to (supposedly) stimulate our economies.

Size Doesn't Matter As AAPL's New 8-Incher Underwhelms And Bipolar Market Resumes

Tyler Durden's picture


Yesterday's late-day rampapalooza seemed like just the confidence-inspiring rally that was needed to enable sellers out at better prices. The absolute schizophrenia (debate-day shenanigans?) remains remarkable - and today the silver-lining appears to be the Dow Transports - which end green. But as always context is key - the rest of the US equity market is converging down to the Trannies measly 0.8% YTD gain in a hurry. Stocks and broad risk-assets were once again highly correlated as systemic weakness dragged an exuberant overnight equity market back down to reality. Today's higher-beta weakness was widespread but AAPL's crashtastic 3.25% plunge on an underwhelming sales and over-expensive product seems as good a catalyst as any (and if anyone on TV tells you its all the shorts driving it - just think about the dominance of this stock in all those long-only manager's books that are now underperforming - long sales at VWAP!!!). USD strength dragged commodities lower - Oil underperforming, Gold outperforming (though lower); Treasury yields cracked lower (down 6-7bps from high to low); and credit modestly underperformed as VIX also rose more than implied by stocks as protection was bid. The S&P has lost the Bernanke Floor and thanks to some late VWAP support is holding at Draghi's Dike.


Today marked the biggest 3-day slump in the S&P 500 in 3 months - on huge volume once again - making a mockery of yesterday's late-day ramp...notice once again the pull up to VWAP today (blue line) which was faded into the close...


Year-to-Date US equity index performance...


leaving the S&P at Draghi's Dike - having lost Bernanke's Bottom...


And once again - its clear that the machines are under pressure to get the big longs out (not just short-sellers) as VWAP points are magnets for volume...


Broadly speaking - stocks over-reacted overnight and overshot to the downside (relative to risk assets in general) - catching back up into the close (which was around ES VWAP - suggesting some balance)... systemic correlation was high though



For a sense of what market participants have been levered to in a risk-on world - that appears to be falling apart - its is useful to see what is underperforming... to wit: on a correlated beta basis (i.e compared to how its moved in the past) - Oil is being sold hardest, followed by stocks, with Gold and the USD in line, and Treasury buying the least aggressive (perhaps as MTG spread unwinds continue)...


Today's VIX move is a little exuberant as protection is heavily bid - well north of Draghi-Dike levels...


But with all the talk of VIX breaking out - we note that in fact the implied vol premium to short-term realized vol (at 10-week highs) is in fact at its lowest in a month - the key now is if the crazy swings of the last few days continue then we see the crowd of vol premium sellers finally get their fingers snapped off in front of the steam roller...


MTG spreads are +7bps post QEtc. and retail mortgage rates are only -3bps! Thanks Ben!


Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context


Bonus Chart: Netflix Tilson'd...-14% afterhours...

Your rating: None

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:13 | 2913828 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

Toto, I have a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:15 | 2913844 CPL
CPL's picture

NFLX shat the bed AH.



FB's turn now.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:20 | 2913861 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

New AAPL release?  Is it as good as this one?


Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:25 | 2913881 Sweet Chicken
Sweet Chicken's picture

HAHA funny shit right there!

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:32 | 2913907 Dalago
Dalago's picture

Its too thin.  They're all about girth.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:35 | 2913913 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Release the hopium ballon.  Float market float!!!!!

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:35 | 2913914 centerline
centerline's picture

+1. That was awesome. Still laughing.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 17:35 | 2914097 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

The Onion is really the only meaningful news show left.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:37 | 2913923 malikai
malikai's picture

"..to see if anyone can figure out this fucking time vampire"


Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:42 | 2913949 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

Theirs that damn fruit again.


Apple - the fall of man...


AAPL - the fall of mankind.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:41 | 2913938 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Bought my Daughter a Sony music player last year; she doesn't like it.

If you put it in sleep mode and bump any button it turns back on - so whenever she goes to use it the battery is almost dead.  Waste of $79.

This is my favorite, the Apple Mac Wheel laptop:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BnLbv6QYcA

With Steve Jobs gone it won't belong before Apple makes something like this, or another Newton or Lisa.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:46 | 2913957 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

You owe me a new keyboard.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:11 | 2914186 A82EBA
A82EBA's picture

that was Great thanks!

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:37 | 2913905 ACP
ACP's picture

8-inchers, trannies and spikes and dikes?

What is this a dungeon??

"Yes, mistress, may I have another?!?"

Update: I guess you want another, if you're an NFLX owner...

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:14 | 2913837 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I wonder if that thing comes in "flesh pink"?

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:15 | 2913838 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

maybe AAPL should merge with Pfizer...

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:37 | 2913924 machineh
machineh's picture

Swipe the red iPill ...

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:16 | 2913840 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

you had to know sooner or later Apple would release a shit sandwich nobody wanted.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:17 | 2913845 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

I'm still trying to figure out who wanted all of the previous ones.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:18 | 2913851 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

They showed it to the public an hour ago, I think it is a little early to tell if anyone wants it.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:25 | 2913876 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

The Apple diehards know instantly.  They just got their iPhoney 5s and they don't see the use of this mini-max thing.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:34 | 2913910 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

It's a good transportable size, much easier to read than the phone.  People like this size or they wouldn't have made it, this size was a big seller for Samsung and Kindle.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:41 | 2913937 centerline
centerline's picture

Your seriously long AAPL, aren't you?

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:42 | 2913948 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Yes, I've made 7 figures plus on apple.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:56 | 2913987 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Yeah me too.

And that's why I'm on ZH 8 hours a day.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 17:13 | 2914030 centerline
centerline's picture

That is one hell of a great run!  Don't give it back though.  APPL looking sort of "toppy" here - at least in the short term.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 17:46 | 2914129 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

I worry about the competition, the marketing isn't as good lately (they need to correct this fast), the products are still very good and Samsung makes good stuff.  4th quarter is going to be strong, 3rd quarter probably not.  Not too many places to put capital these days though, too much $$ on the sidelines as it is.  For now, I'm sticking with apple because it is currently the best company in the world.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 07:27 | 2915255 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Don't worry, the release of Windows 8 is coming to the rescue, things will look up for AAPL soon.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 17:26 | 2914070 CPL
CPL's picture

You'll lose 7 if you don't put in your stops.


BTW, go Check and put in your stops

...when you talk to your mother next, Check and put in your stops

...if shopping for a nice sharp cheddar, Check and put in your stops.

...while taking a stroll after supper beforehand, check and put in your stops.




Tue, 10/23/2012 - 17:37 | 2914102 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

I don't use stops.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:54 | 2914338 centerline
centerline's picture

Now we know your 7 digits included the two places after the decimal point.  lol.  Dear God dude.   Pull this leg... it plays jingle bells.  And if you are for real, HOLY SHIT - your nuts.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 21:24 | 2914675 CPL
CPL's picture



Rough trader.  Well put some aside to start over again then and don't touch it until you need to pay rent.  I hear Barclay's is hiring.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 17:37 | 2914104 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Plus what?

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:41 | 2913940 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

I would agree but I think people already own this type/size device.  It may catch fire for Christmas.  Time will tell.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 17:36 | 2914099 Saro
Saro's picture

"People like this size or they wouldn't have made it"

Under that theory of production, no company can ever fail.  No wonder you're bullish.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 17:40 | 2914108 Spastica Rex
Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:58 | 2913996 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Everybody should go long apple right here, there is a negativity bubble going on here.  I'm getting junked for stating obvious facts.  I expect 3rd quarter to be a little soft, 4th quarter is going to crush it.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 18:56 | 2914349 centerline
centerline's picture

Need somebody to sell to eh?

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 21:28 | 2914683 CPL
CPL's picture

He's a contrarian investor. 


Buy high sell low.  I think it's time we moved away from this one he's high as a kite on hopium and disconnected his phone for an Irish vacation.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 07:41 | 2915272 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

LOL! No thanks, I prefer my money to stay in my pocket, not yours.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:17 | 2913846 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

but....but... Cramer said BTFD

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:17 | 2913849 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

ben can save the metals tomorrow. stawks are fked.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:18 | 2913855 lemonobrien
lemonobrien's picture

when your chick wants you to fuck her in her ass; you have a small dick.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:22 | 2913865 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

Aaaah, and I was wondering why they all ... Never mind.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:29 | 2913893 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

thats not the case nowadays.......they ALL love it in the ass

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 21:28 | 2914686 CPL
CPL's picture

LMAO.  That seriously deserves a tshirt.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:21 | 2913863 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

I don't know why I even maintain my netflix sub. They never had any movies that I actually want to watch available for streaming. Even my kids have run out of cartoons to watch on it.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:24 | 2913871 Flaming Ferrari
Flaming Ferrari's picture

Hmmm. Buy the mini-iPad or buy the mini dip........so much to choose from.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:47 | 2913962 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

Try to figure out how to scrounge up enough disposable income to buy a Christmas tree and presents for 5 kids, let alone some piece of 8" iShit.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 16:29 | 2913890 oldfruit1
oldfruit1's picture

Facebook beat expectations .. Stock up 8% and counting .. b,owing through the roof !

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!