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Facebook Squeezes Up 25% Pre-Open Amid Earnings/Upgrades
Everyone's favorite internet narcissism site has exploded in the pre-market. After reporting some not as bad as expected numbers, analysts at Citi, BofAML, and Stifel have upgraded the wunder-stock to BUY and that has sent this 14% of float shorted stock up 25% - to its huge gap-down level from 7/26 (last earnings). Technical squeeze of all-clear? With 23 Buys, 15 Holds, and 4 Sells, what can go wrong? Especially with ~$16bn of market cap from lockup expirations due to hit within two months.
Thoughts - Via Deutsche:
Facebook reported revenue 3% above consensus and EPS also beat by $0.01. Ad revenue is re-accelerating on the back of Sponsored Stories in Newsfeed, which was around $200m in 3Q12 (up from $30m estimated in 2Q12) and with $150m coming from mobile ads. The exit run rate for SS-in-NF was “over $4m” suggesting as much as $500m-$600m in 4Q, but are likely cannibalizing rightrail ads. While we are excited about the ad acceleration, we are largely maintaining our 2013 estimates on higher ads but lower payments revenue. Our optimism is weighed down valuation, as shares trade at 34x 2014 EPS vs. online advertising peers at 15x.
and Via Goldman - The Lock-Up Expiration Schedule
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Will FB become the new hedge fund hotel? Stay tuned to find out.
LOL!
My shoeshine boy was telling me to take another look at FB....kid is wicked smart.
I loved that movie as a kid.
Selling calls like a mofo on bath salts. Or like a Bernanke on a printing press. Take your pick.
Lockup period coming to an end and higher exit points desperately needed much?
I'm somewhat cynical of this company that allegedly has 1 billion users (of which 15% may be active on a daily basis with this rate declining) who are monetized via InTheirFaceAdvertisement clickage (with digital advertising having a saturation rate so high it's impossible to estimate and credible studies showing not only apathy, but hostility, towards online ads).
Dow Chemical, a global chemical company that makes necessary tangible THINGS announced horrific numbers (and is laying off 2,500 workers and closing 20 plants globally), as have DuPont, Eli Lily & Praxair, yet InYourFaceWithAdsBook, is monetizing financially broke 9 to 30 year olds with highly annoying clickads.
The squeeze sets up another short for those who were not shorting earnings. Looking at $27-27.50.
Nah. I heard the Silk Road is going public, though.
Queue MDB's "This is it!" speach.
"Get me in at any price!" = Priceless
What does Facebook sell again? Oh, right...
Slaves
Yea...the narcissists are the product.
YOY GAAP earnings down significantly. YOY Non-GAAP earnings flat. What's not to like?
Their PE of 108 and climbing means there is plenty of room for growth.
They only lost 2 cents a share last quarter! Fucking bullish!
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000119312512431558/d427739dex...
Here comes the massive short
stop.. please.. my ribs.. they hurt!
Can we get a refresher on when all the employee lockup periods are expiring?
Thank you kind sir.
Nov. 13th: Pump meets Dump
Regardless to the actual fundamentals of the company - I just wish it would fail miserably. Facebook is an Orwellian wet dream people willingly sign up for.
The cult of Mercerism is alive and well. Fire up those empathy boxes, everyone!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Do_Androids_Dream_Of_Electric_Sheep%3f
Deckard dreamt of unicorns - perhaps he wasn't a Replicant but a central banker...
Have you ever read the actual story? In the film, Scott essentially makes the replicants "more human than human," but in Dick's source material, the androids were just total assholes. I love both the story and the film - just very different conclusions.
Only one thing is certain: gotta get one of those lead codpieces so I'm still virile beyond Thunderdome...
Nope. I read "A Scanner Darkly" decades ago - that's the only title of his I can recall reading...
Looks like the algo manatees picked the $FB rock today.
It's treasonous to buy government book
It was obvious that SOMEONE knew SOMETHING about earnings and upgrades since this POS was POSITIVE all day yesterday, along with that POS Google.
But Carpetbagger Kaminsky said his market thesis was bearish because he personally declared an end to QE after it blindsided him. How could this be?
This is not an endosement of FB. Just pointing out that there is more risk of a 20% up day than a 20% down day with all these screaming MSM shorts and all this money printing.
FB pawns all
FaceSqueeze...
It's still a piece of shit.
i will be a 8 dollar bid for 1k..will get it in 1 year or so..lol
What could possibly go wrong? 1.5B MOAR shares?
"Damn the torpedos, full steam ahead!"
Capt Zuck, USS FaceBerg
MOMO RAH RAH!
They trick people into accidently clicking on the ads by placing them where an unintentional finger will fall. Too funny
What? They didn't halt trading at the +10% mark?!?
Lol...forgot...that is only for shit going DOWN.
When do they release that next tranche of shares again?
Looks like it's about time to buy some Puts with a $20 strike again. It worked really good for me the last time I did it when the stock was trading at $26.
worked good, eh?
just make sure you have enough time. I picked the right direction but not enough time & got nuthin' for it.
http://flic.kr/p/cER87h
Let's see, short a stock that has been hammered to death into earnings. Brilliant. Anyone that did that deserved an ass kicking regardless if the company is a POS or not.
well if youd done the same with netflix which has taken an even bigger hammering you would have been richly rewarded by shorting into its earnings yesterday. facebook short interest was only 14% into yesterday which is not considerable at all, if it was 25% and higher then its dangerous to be shorting with everyone else.
if theyd missed with an eps of lets say 6-7p intead of 12 .. which was quite possible seeing as the company has been a shitshow from the start, the stock would be trading at 13-15 bucks ..so it all swings in roundabouts.
They are as profitable as AMZN. Oh wait, AMZN does not have any profits.
Difficult to sell stuff when your servers are down. Hmm, do they still sell real stuff, or just access to their cloud.
short FB @ $25-26 (not necessarily today)
and HOLD til sub $10 !!!
the stupid shoe shine boys over at CBS-mw (cheerleading bs) are announcing: BUY HIGH !!
i posted at ZH, last time FB @ $19...that: "i wouldn't short here, would wait for mid-twenties"...well its almost mid-twenties....wait for $25-$26....thank you stupid cheerleaders (cbs-mw "REPORTERS"
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/facebook-upgraded-to-buy-by-citi-shares-surge-2012-10-24?dist=beforebell
what amazing about facebook is that it is 40bn bucks .. but trades like a penny stock .. i reckon half that 25% gain in out of hours trading will be wiped out by end of play .. everyones going to have the same idea as above posters and short the crap out of it at 25 .. so reckon well be at $22.5 ..
wow !!!
unbelievable !!! (well NOT really)...the ALL time shoe shine boy !! = marc hulbert is saying that NOW, that FINALLY its time to buy FB @ $25..not $18 last week...but now!!!
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-facebook-shares-finally-worth-buying-2012-10-24?link=home_carousel
a sampling of his record:
1) oct 2007 djia @ 14k he says: "gonna go to 16k!!!!"
2) when citibank @ $35 he says: "who is gonna be the contrarian and buy it" now @ $3.5 (not calculating 10X reverse split)
3) Nov 2011 spx @ 1170 (dropped to 1160): says: "contrarians still expect further sell-offs" then market closes @ 1250+ that year and now @ 1430 or so.
4) May 1, 2012 says: "May doesn't have to be bad" spx @ 1412 = me MASSIVE PANIC SHORT !! also says: "don't feel bad if you didn't buy"...really u idiot??? see #3 above
5) June 4, 2012 spx @ 1275 says: "WATCH-OUT for a massive sell-off on Monday" this was after -2.5% sell-off on Fri...= me MASSIVE PANIC COVER ALL MY SHORTS and go long
6) now he is telling u to buy FB??? me wait for $26 = me massive panic short FB !!
....just a sampling of his "wonderful" track record...i have the webs links to his "awesome" predictions to #4 and #5 and #6...i wished i had kept #1-#3....u won't find them on cbs-mw...they have been deleted.
Wall Street can't let FB flounder, it's their IPO poster child. Wall Street's pinnacle of hype and fools perception.
Fat fingers for sure:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-big-thumbs-upping-ad-clicks-2012-10-03?dist=lcountdown
I agree from the chart's history & from the expected future month over month and year over year revenue for facebook it's good to short it. I have been burned before, however, using Puts which expired BEFORE the last big drop (7 days before). So... choose wisely.
As for Google, it's a fair match to include ads which match the search terms since you are searching for something - not so friendly with it's an interjection from snooping on gmail or from youtube stuff. For that there's still adblock & noscript.
I trust Zuckerberg the way I trust the banks - lie about earnings, expected earnings, expected customers. I just assume it & so far with the banks, which are the big funders for the Facebook IPO, that hasn't been an incorrect assumption as data rolls out.
On its face, however, the announcements in the earnings call sounded very positive. Certainly the market reacted in that manner. Still, it would have been interesting to see if everyone got to ask a "tough" question. They felt a little soft-ball.
oh right, almost forgot
Clearly the anti-government, unpatriotic Libertarians failed in their attack on Treasuries, Facebook and AAPL will soon show its lasting power over 1000. We should all be so thankful the honorable Benjamin S Bernanke has done so much for us, now if only we do our part by paying our fair share.
Ok, admit it - even as sarcasm immitating Poe's Law it makes you throw up a little in your mouth.
Boating accidents, bitchez