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It Is Time To Pare Back
Via Mark Grant, author of Out of the Box,
If you aren’t the lead dog the scenery never changes.
I stated, quite some time ago, that the recession in Europe would proceed to the United States. It was just a matter of time before the austerity demanded on the Continent began to have its affects in America. We are in earnings season and the numbers have not been pretty. China is in a slow-down, you may append what terminology that you like, but the reality of it is staring you in the face. Exports by all of Asia to Europe are not only in decline but the waterfall is a steep cascade as denoted by China whose exports to Italy are off almost thirty-seven percent. France had to inject $9 billion into Peugeot today as VW reported out profits that declined nineteen percent. I project that by the first quarter of next year that America will also be in a recession as the spillover from Europe darkens our shores.
“There are some people who live in a dream world, and there are some who face reality; and then there are those who turn one into the other.”
-Douglas Everett
The equity markets went up, bonds compressed, as the never ending printing presses rolled on in Europe, in China, in Britain and in America. Printing trumped the European recession until the spigots were either turned off or became ineffective. What else is that you can promise the markets after “limitless” and “uncapped” play out? The world’s financial markets have lived off of the largesse of the world’s central banks while the financial projections of each nation in Europe and the IMF churned out numbers, relied upon by many, that were absolute fantasies as proven by the subsequent quarters when real numbers appeared to the gasps of those in the various marketplaces that had expected something else entirely. With short rates at just above Zero, with everything promised now except the kitchen sink and with the economies in a major part of Europe falling into the abyss where is it that you think we are going besides down? I would argue that the central banks did what they could, delayed the inevitable but that it was always a question of when and not if before earnings turned grim and the markets reversed.
“The difference between fiction and reality? Fiction has to make sense.”
-Tom Clancy
It is nice to think that the world is mollified by the ECB and the decline in yields of the troubled countries in Europe but that is only part of the story and a relatively small piece at that. The debt keeps growing in Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy so that the drop in funding costs is more than cancelled out by the amount of debt that must be serviced. Europe has yet to confront further loans to Greece, Spain, Portugal and Cyprus because they cannot agree on how to proceed so the whole lot languishes in Elysian Fields as the effects of the poppies must have overcome the necessity of doing anything. It is a Xanax induced environment as Greece runs out of money and as Spain faces regional debt issue, bank debt issues and the possibility of several parts of Spain that wish to disassociate from the country.
Well, I can tell you with certainty that you can only do nothing for so long because eventually the lack of capital forces your hand and it is usually just at a time when everyone is surprised that your elbows are on the table and that you have demonstrated such poor table manners. I suggest taking a long and hard look at what you own now, what equities have outperformed, what bonds have compressed beyond your expectations and taking some money off the table now before the markets take your profits off the table for you. “Preservation of Capital” remains in force and I humbly suggest that you preserve some now before it is no longer your choice!
“Reality is merely an illusion; though a very persistent one.”
-Albert Einstein
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http://www.rmdfx.com/2012/10/24/prominent-market-players-talk-about-this-market-enviroment/
I like those subjectivist quotes. They highlight the fact that contrary to purist libertarian dogma, the world is not black and white. It comes in shades of grey. Propositions don't have to be either true or false - they can also be partially true. Libertarians say “we shouldn't have any central planning because central planning achieves the opposite of its stated goal” - but this is classical black and white thinking. Why can't we have just a little bit of central planning and a little bit of socialism? Why can't we eliminate some spending, but keep essential programs like Medicare, medicate, social security and public sector pensions?
"It comes in shades of grey..."
50 of them apparently.
But that's exactly what's going to happen after the election! A little bit of central planning, a little bit of socialism, a little bit of capitalism, a little bit of free market, essential programs like Medicare, medicate, social security and public sector pensions and most Americans will also have to eliminate spending. Pretty colorful, isn't it?
Why can't we eliminate some spending, but keep essential programs like Medicare, medicate, social security and public sector pensions?
and cash for clunkers?I hope they don't eliminate that funding for observing a ferret crawling up Bernanke's ass and giving him some form of ass disease
"Why can't we have just a little bit of central planning and a little bit of socialism?"
Like an alcoholic saying I'm going to quit drinking after I finish this one. Well, I meant after this one. Just one more, then I swear I'll quit.
Hi. I'd like to have a little bit of The Road to Serfdom. I'm sure that once I start down it that my benevolent, strictly constitutional, "Representative Democracy" Government won't force me to remain on it.
better
Because at the end of the day, you and I have a different definition of the word "essential".
Exit stage left.
<How do you escape the currency when all nations are competitively debasing their fiat?>
/trickquestion
Gold bitchez!
Those Elysian Fields.. are they arable?
by definition, like the ECB, they can print primroses and daffodils to infinity, all the eye can behold.
I wandered lonely as a cloud
That floats on high o'er vales and hills,
When all at once I saw a crowd,
A host, of golden daffodils;
Beside the lake, beneath the trees,
Fluttering and dancing in the breeze.
Continuous as the stars that shine
And twinkle on the milky way,
They stretched in never-ending line
Along the margin of a bay:
Ten thousand saw I at a glance,
Tossing their heads in sprightly dance.
William WOrdsworth....
Shake rattle n roll your spear for all you're worth!
Silver has a nice ring to it also.
you become a nun or a homo. And vote for Fidel Castro. Not that Castro endorses homos, nuns he is used to.
I exited three weeks ago. It's been a good run and I see no reason top be greedy.
I exited 2 years ago. What took you so long?
Isn't it time to BTFD?
Will the old mange ridden mutt markets pumped with QE steroids chase another car, or is it time to lay out the old blanket and call the vet.
Can't the market "withstand" those bears, can't it "hold off" and wave the stars and stripes and go to new dizzying heights?
I mean, the crony capitalist codger Warren Buffet was on T.V. today, baseball hot dogs apple pie and Government Motors it's all good again!
I think I'm getting teary eyed, snif, wipe, catch breath.
Will the old mange ridden mutt markets pumped with QE steroids chase another car, or is it time to lay out the old blanket and call the vet.
LOL
OT/
A vison of the world to come if O'bammy wins in November; not that the Repubs won't buy into this same criminal scam if they win.
Obama Moves To Make The 'War on Terror' Permanent - Business Insider
if obama wins and a non-nuclear [one hopes?] world war iii happens in the year of our 'godless society - 2015'..., there will be no need for a presidential election-- and dear bambi will have pulled-off a 'fdr-esque-amargo'!
Calm before the storm...
Tut tut looks like rain.
Maybe they can claim that they've found an a million year old alien civilization whose economy is worth ~$100 Quintillion who are willing to buy our debt?
Funny you say the S-Dog...
.
I'm waiting for 'them' to say they have discovered something - some ancient text or artifact (whether its on earth or in space) - whatever - to bring about new information about us 'humans' and our history/ancestory...
And of course it will be be more lies, manipulation about who and what we are - our true nature and meaning.
.
The masses will be duped and *hoodwinked* again.
.
This LIFE is one giant puzzle...
That DID not have to be this way.
You think that's funny but I have odds after the crash they announce full disclosure and release plans for free energy machines...and Saucer technology...which they have been using for about 30 years anyway.
Thats the basis for the new global economy- Release of Alien technology.
I'd bet money on it.
Those issues are addressed along with the coming MASS ARRESTS in the Wilcock-Drake interview... http://tinyurl.com/cd5cyjo/
So far not in evidence...
The aliens aren't coming. There are no aliens to save our ass. There won't be any wars to *revitalize* the economy....oh, wait....
Need.the.kitchen.sink.too.
Much ado about nothing.
Just as in the movie 'Abyss', Krugman's aliens will reveal themselves and save the day.
Benny wrote it into the script.
Right, Ben?
Ben?
Hello?
Oh, Shit.
I'm no "prepper", but I waste no time exchanging FRNs for gold, silver, and goods that can be eaten, drank, smoked, or fired at high velocity.
They cant stop until the banks are solvent and gov debt is paid down. So good luck with the deflationist fantasies.
So you are saying this will not end soon ... interesting.
I like silver over gold... am I crazy?
Gold target 1620
Silver target 58.
Have the best of both worlds and own both. Silver may have a higher return potential but physical gold is more transportable. Just in case ;-)
Montana here we come! - Unlike you fat cats, my 80k a year -20k in taxs and -20k in student loans... I can't be fliping the gold coins. But Junk silver and 1 ozt rounds are light for my PRIME body... be preparred get in shape.
Sounds like Silver over gold then.
All this pessimism, so we bot QQQ calls...
Pare back?
We have been at "it's going to BLOW any day now" for a long time.
Would you rather be in a fraud riddled market priced in an ever expanding ponzi or in a decreasing supply of a very critical precious metal.
GO SILVER!!!!