It's Been A Wild Ride

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The last few years have been a wild ride in the world's equity markets. None wilder than the US equity markets. The only fly in the ointment is that we've seen this kind of 'wild ride' before, the kind of unbridled nothing-can-stop-us-now, its-all-priced-in, Central-Bank-sponsored rallies that have been the bread-and-butter of every BTFD'er since March 2009. Presented with little comment - this time it's different, we really hope...

 

 

and if that wasn't enough - here is the last six months...

 

and as we noted here recently - this is not just a price pattern, this is a valuation boost pattern too: post-QE Peak P/E appears to have hit us once again...

 

(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)

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Wed, 10/24/2012 - 22:04 | 2917509 The Watchman
The Watchman's picture

Look out beloooooooooow!

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 22:12 | 2917546 markmotive
markmotive's picture

Sure. Or something else could happen.

 

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 22:48 | 2917632 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The new normal for equity markets will be algorithmic black boxes & central wankers/Working Groups on Financial Markets trading futures via colocated servers with each other.

I wonder how The Bernank et al. are going to make that work long run?

It's genuinely getting all iTulip-ey again, and I say this as someone who witnessed the last round of The Winners of the New World get up on a wall & take a great fall.

Bubbles!

We've got bubbles!

We've got lots and lots of bubbles...

....Bubbles!!!*

 

*Inflating Bubbles Via Monetary Policy Insanity & Inducing Market Participants To Chase Them As An Unsustainable Surrogate Form of Economic Growth To Hide Deep Structural Economic Rot, by Ben "Helo-Bubbles" Bernanke, Ph.D. (Random House)

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 00:35 | 2917789 flacon
flacon's picture

1987 wasn't an election year... but I don't know if that makes a difference or not. 

 

...remembering 1987...

ECONOMIC PLANNING: "IT'S A SIN!" - even back in 1987

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqZngLHfhiI

 

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 05:02 | 2917929 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

I don't hope it's different. I hope it is the same. We need a crash to clean the filth out. 

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 07:37 | 2918031 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Rubbing is racing bitchez! Expect some mild turbulence.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 06:27 | 2917987 petolo
petolo's picture

Where's Lawrence Welk?..............remember thr bubble machine ?

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:22 | 2918199 astoriajoe
astoriajoe's picture

Bubbles, with a Capital B and that rhymes with P, and that Stands for Pool!!!

Stands for Pool!

Monorail... monorail... monorail...

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 01:23 | 2917827 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

This ride ain't over yet.

 

http://jamesturkblog.blogspot.ca/

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 01:33 | 2917830 Orly
Orly's picture

You're right because the Bank of Japan just said after hours that they want to expand their asset purchase program by 10T yen.  The Japanese Diet has allowed only 700B to be a done deal by this Friday.  It looks like the 4X market is shrugging this off like it's a drop in the bucket.

Crazy, ain't it?

Correction: It ain't even after hours yet! How desperate can you be?

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 07:35 | 2918032 max2205
max2205's picture

At least it higher highs and higher lows......

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 22:07 | 2917518 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

QE4 ... bernanke starts buying NFLX stocks.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 22:07 | 2917521 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

This is why I am 100% SHORT and 100% PHYSICAL.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 22:23 | 2917579 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

So like, 50% short and 50% physical?

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 23:22 | 2917706 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I was laid off in May-

The severence for 13 years is in PSLV/Cash/Shorts JPM,GS,SPX,GNW and the 401K + former IRA are now physical.

 

So I am either short or in physical or as close as I can get.

Prepare people.

(incase you are wondering I sold 50% out of PSLV at $13.64 as a hedge against a drop (which happened) and sit in cash to pay bills and BTFD...so far so good)

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 07:47 | 2918045 kill switch
kill switch's picture

JPM.

 

the 401K + former IRA are now physical.

Music to my ears!!!

Sorry to hear you got laid off, this shit storm sucks,,,

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 02:03 | 2917859 Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

60% of the time, it works all the time.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 06:02 | 2917953 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

TWo different accounts: one physical and real, the other is an illusion; Both are 100%, but only one is real.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 22:06 | 2917522 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

I would love to ride a roller coaster with Tim Geitner and throw him out when we get to the top!

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 22:31 | 2917602 Osmium
Osmium's picture

I would love to have a picture of that.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 22:46 | 2917631 Jethro
Jethro's picture

I envisioned the Thelma and Louise cliff scene, but with Timmay and Ben in the car instead....

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 01:42 | 2917840 HD
HD's picture

Timmy isn't tall enough to get on a roller coaster... you need a backup plan.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 07:52 | 2918050 kill switch
kill switch's picture

 No, you throw him out at the bottom at apprx 80mph up against the neighboring Ferris wheel. Visualize that!! It's what I call straining the weasel.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 22:07 | 2917526 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

What a long strange trip its beeeen....

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 22:07 | 2917529 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

People's Bank of China injects CNY 85bln via 14 day reverse repos and CNY 140bln via 7 day reverse repos

- Drains CNY 70bln for the week vs. CNY 221bln drained last week.

Update details:
- This brings this weeks total of reverse repos from the PBOC to CNY 316Bln.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 22:11 | 2917538 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

I for one am scared to death of Ben Shalom.  Every time I think this is it, he ends up screwing me somehow with a new mechanism that is perceived to save the day, will this time be any different?  I really am afraid to find out as he can tap me out with his bullshit

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 22:20 | 2917567 Orly
Orly's picture

According to the charts above and the fact that he did ought today, it is apparent he is out of bullets.  This one is going to get messy real quick.

:D

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 08:37 | 2918114 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

I agree but what we need is a good definition of "real quick".

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 22:12 | 2917543 Triple A
Triple A's picture

Who would want I be in the rigged market right now?

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 22:11 | 2917544 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

i'm guessing that one can line up graphs to say any number of things.  but the methodical, studious, imaginative and somewhat patient john hussman believes this market equal to four others: late 1972, summer 1987, late 1999/early 2000 and early 2007.  

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc121008.htm 

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 22:30 | 2917597 chump666
chump666's picture

now run the VIX over 1987 (VXO), 1999, 2000, 2007 charts.

 

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 00:58 | 2917813 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Those were good years, right!?!?

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 22:12 | 2917545 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

What goes up, must come down. Basic law of physics. 

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 22:15 | 2917554 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Who is going to get fucked?

Why, retiress and pensioners of course!!!

Where the fuck else do you thing the ca$h for bonuses is going to come from?

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 00:40 | 2917802 dvfco
dvfco's picture

Who is going to get fucked?

I may be mistaken but relatively speaking the retirees and pensioners have done pretty fucking well over the past 50 years.  The only minor exception are the people screwed by bullshite COLAs or inflation adjustments (which replace chicken for beef when beef prices rise, and pork for chicken when chicken prices rise, and 'lips and asses' for pork when pork prices rise, etc.) keeping inflation adjusted pensions constantly out of whack with reality.  Other pensioner, I believe, have been saved by the government.  

Unless, of course, you are speaking of those retirees expecting to retire at 60 with $1,000,000 and obtain 6% returns for the rest of their lives on 30-year treasuries.  The $5K per month they expected is now 1/2 that amount, but they aren't the losers.

The people getting a good XXX-quality fucking are those born anywhere from the now through 50-years of age.  We are midway through a Japan-quality lost decade and in the early stages of a lot generation.  The only problem is 'this time it's different.'  And, I say that only with a 20th Century perspective is that we only get out of this with a World War causing industry and demand to return.  This, unfortunately, comes coupled with the death of millions of innocent young adults from around the world.

So, the youth get fucked.  Further, they have already been fucked by receiving the worst education, worst nutrition, worst civics and government, and worst use of childhood in over 100 years in the US.  Soon, I suspect we'll have kids dying in war whose live had consisted of PS3 and XBOX 360 before they'll be enlisted

I may be over-dramatizing the future, but it's bleak, both here and abroad.  I don't mean to trivialize the plight of elderly, having both parents alive and in their 80s, but they've received the best healthcare in the history of mankind, seen the most amazing advances in the history of mankind, and will probably pass on as the world declines in to chaos.  I guess this is fair play for a dad born 3 months before the crash of '29!  We're fucked - in a lot of ways.  

Just remember - The country boy will survive.  I'm just bummed i'm not one and neither are my kids.  (Pass me another Heineken - thanks.)  Those who hunt, fish, and have wood burning stoves in their living rooms while living on the continental divide will be the wealthy of the rest of the 21st Century.  No need for 4G, WiFi, stock markets, etc.

(No, I am not the Unibomber.  He was caught - remember?)

 

 

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 07:38 | 2918034 ITrustMyGut
ITrustMyGut's picture

accurate appraisal, my man

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 07:40 | 2918037 max2205
max2205's picture

FYI. Retires don't live more than 10 -30 years. Get over it

I am against ANY retirement payout under soc sec ages. Fuck teachers govt and police/firefighters ect.

Go to Chicago and see what I mean

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 08:33 | 2918109 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

"Those who hunt, fish, and have wood burning stoves in their living rooms while living on the continental divide"

You got my attention there; I'm putting the finishing touches on a new house that just happens to be directly on the Eastern continental divide, on 3+ acres of wooded mountainside, with a wood stove in the great room. Why do you favor living on the continental divide? I never gave it much thought. All I saw was rainy summers and lots and lots of trees.

BTW, joining the Country Boy club isn't difficult. I was born in the Los Angeles area, but I moved into the Blue Ridge Mtns a long time back. Learning to hunt, fish, garden and tend a wood stove ain't rocket surgery. Plus, there's plenty of room out here and cheap land, if you don't mind living well up a steep, twisty gravel road.  The Lowe's truck backs all the way up; it takes him about 10 minutes to make the last quarter mile (I can hear his back-up beeper).

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 23:29 | 2920595 dvfco
dvfco's picture

Emerson - Thanks for the added 'thumbs up.'  

Crucible - I'm very surprised that my rant while well-oiled last night got more upward pointing triangles than anything else I've written other in recent memory.  I think an American under 50 realizes that we are getting fucked.  And, I believe that every American over 50, not suffering from dementia, realizes they are getting away with murder.  It must disturb them in some ways that it's the murder of their children, grandchildren, etc.  

BTW - I am an appraiser in NYC.  I'm used to providing values on $50m+ apartment buildings for people gifting to their heirs tax free.  However, I just had the opportunity to appraise a 200+ acre parcel of land way our in western NYS.  This guy had a lake, stream, waterfall, four hunting blinds built into the woods, 4x4a, and dozens of rifles and shotguns - and he was just a sportsman.  I was in amazement that I had appraised 1/4 billion dollar apartment buildings on lot areas of under one acre, and that this acreage, above the Utica Shale and Marcellus shale, was worth less than 1/2 Mill.  Crazy.. You could move there, dig a well (with the help of some serious talent able to go down deep enough to get the gas) and live with natural resources for the next dozen generations.  Without an outside collapse, this person could have had his own well and lived free for live, banked money every month, and aided our economy.  BUT - his brilliant neighbors (all retired fireman and bankers from NYC, banned fracking in the area - fuckers.) 

Deep down I feel I know what's coming.  I've teen buying gold and silver for my family and my parents now for almost a decade, but I am 100% sure that it will be useless on Long Island.  The island has 4 days of food in reserve (at most) and few ways in-or-out.

When the shit hits the fan here - we'll have a hard time getting of the island.  I just feel my instinct will be to get off L.I. rather than try to go to COSTCO.  Who knows.  It may all hit the fan on Tuesday when these two 'storms of the century' are reported to be merging over my house.  Who knows.  

However, I know the continental divide is not an easy place to live.  However, I believe it's the easiest and best place to live should/when there is a meltdown of society.  You can live for years on natural resources.

In my mind, something is very wrong.  I've felt this way for a decade as I started buying gold at $482.50 and silver below $8.  That's great and all, but as the bible says, gold does not beget gold.  So, when the time comes, Long Island will be known as an OK place to have raised kids, but a really shitty place to have been when hell broke loose.  Wife and family stuck on staying - what can I say.?

 

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 12:13 | 2918795 emersonreturn
emersonreturn's picture

dvfco

 

+1, my vote didn't register.  

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 22:24 | 2917582 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It can't happen quick enough. The next step down to S&P 400

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 01:46 | 2917845 HD
HD's picture

In my heart I'm that bearish - retest that 666. In my head, I know they will manipulate to hell and back to hold the POS up. I'll be happy just to get to S&P 1200 at this point...

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 07:47 | 2918044 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Priced against gold, it may as well be (666).

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 22:24 | 2917584 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

QEx will turn out to be the biggest mistake ever

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 22:34 | 2917607 chump666
chump666's picture

Especially when the market breaks the Mario/Bernanke supports.   All that money liquidated into nothing.  QE would be better just topping the government credit cards and/or buying cars for every sucker out there.

The monetary system is beyond a farce.

What did Al Capone say about the markets/stocks?  He was right.

Anyways...

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 22:41 | 2917622 Orly
Orly's picture

I don't know, Chump.  What did Scarface say about stocks?

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 23:22 | 2917708 Orly
Orly's picture

I guess he knew Joe Kennedy personally?

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 22:54 | 2917647 ekm
ekm's picture

The market cannot break the support because the market simply does NOT exist.

The support is operationally provided by the trading desks of Primary Dealers. The pyramid will simply implode under the weight of extremely high prices stocks that mutual funds are selling due to withdraws and Primary Dealers are FORCED to buy.

 

It's going to be an implosion, not an explosion.

 

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