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It's Been A Wild Ride
The last few years have been a wild ride in the world's equity markets. None wilder than the US equity markets. The only fly in the ointment is that we've seen this kind of 'wild ride' before, the kind of unbridled nothing-can-stop-us-now, its-all-priced-in, Central-Bank-sponsored rallies that have been the bread-and-butter of every BTFD'er since March 2009. Presented with little comment - this time it's different, we really hope...
and if that wasn't enough - here is the last six months...
and as we noted here recently - this is not just a price pattern, this is a valuation boost pattern too: post-QE Peak P/E appears to have hit us once again...
(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)
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Look out beloooooooooow!
Sure. Or something else could happen.
The new normal for equity markets will be algorithmic black boxes & central wankers/Working Groups on Financial Markets trading futures via colocated servers with each other.
I wonder how The Bernank et al. are going to make that work long run?
It's genuinely getting all iTulip-ey again, and I say this as someone who witnessed the last round of The Winners of the New World get up on a wall & take a great fall.
Bubbles!
We've got bubbles!
We've got lots and lots of bubbles...
....Bubbles!!!*
*Inflating Bubbles Via Monetary Policy Insanity & Inducing Market Participants To Chase Them As An Unsustainable Surrogate Form of Economic Growth To Hide Deep Structural Economic Rot, by Ben "Helo-Bubbles" Bernanke, Ph.D. (Random House)
Very interesting.
http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2012/10/some-apocalyptic-ranting.html
1987 wasn't an election year... but I don't know if that makes a difference or not.
...remembering 1987...
ECONOMIC PLANNING: "IT'S A SIN!" - even back in 1987
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqZngLHfhiI
I don't hope it's different. I hope it is the same. We need a crash to clean the filth out.
Rubbing is racing bitchez! Expect some mild turbulence.
Where's Lawrence Welk?..............remember thr bubble machine ?
Bubbles, with a Capital B and that rhymes with P, and that Stands for Pool!!!
Stands for Pool!
Monorail... monorail... monorail...
This ride ain't over yet.
http://jamesturkblog.blogspot.ca/
You're right because the Bank of Japan just said after hours that they want to expand their asset purchase program by 10T yen. The Japanese Diet has allowed only 700B to be a done deal by this Friday. It looks like the 4X market is shrugging this off like it's a drop in the bucket.
Crazy, ain't it?
Correction: It ain't even after hours yet! How desperate can you be?
At least it higher highs and higher lows......
QE4 ... bernanke starts buying NFLX stocks.
This is why I am 100% SHORT and 100% PHYSICAL.
So like, 50% short and 50% physical?
I was laid off in May-
The severence for 13 years is in PSLV/Cash/Shorts JPM,GS,SPX,GNW and the 401K + former IRA are now physical.
So I am either short or in physical or as close as I can get.
Prepare people.
(incase you are wondering I sold 50% out of PSLV at $13.64 as a hedge against a drop (which happened) and sit in cash to pay bills and BTFD...so far so good)
JPM.
the 401K + former IRA are now physical.
Music to my ears!!!
Sorry to hear you got laid off, this shit storm sucks,,,
60% of the time, it works all the time.
TWo different accounts: one physical and real, the other is an illusion; Both are 100%, but only one is real.
I would love to ride a roller coaster with Tim Geitner and throw him out when we get to the top!
I would love to have a picture of that.
I envisioned the Thelma and Louise cliff scene, but with Timmay and Ben in the car instead....
Timmy isn't tall enough to get on a roller coaster... you need a backup plan.
No, you throw him out at the bottom at apprx 80mph up against the neighboring Ferris wheel. Visualize that!! It's what I call straining the weasel.
What a long strange trip its beeeen....
People's Bank of China injects CNY 85bln via 14 day reverse repos and CNY 140bln via 7 day reverse repos
- Drains CNY 70bln for the week vs. CNY 221bln drained last week.
Update details:
- This brings this weeks total of reverse repos from the PBOC to CNY 316Bln.
I for one am scared to death of Ben Shalom. Every time I think this is it, he ends up screwing me somehow with a new mechanism that is perceived to save the day, will this time be any different? I really am afraid to find out as he can tap me out with his bullshit
According to the charts above and the fact that he did ought today, it is apparent he is out of bullets. This one is going to get messy real quick.
:D
I agree but what we need is a good definition of "real quick".
Who would want I be in the rigged market right now?
i'm guessing that one can line up graphs to say any number of things. but the methodical, studious, imaginative and somewhat patient john hussman believes this market equal to four others: late 1972, summer 1987, late 1999/early 2000 and early 2007.
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc121008.htm
now run the VIX over 1987 (VXO), 1999, 2000, 2007 charts.
Those were good years, right!?!?
What goes up, must come down. Basic law of physics.
Who is going to get fucked?
Why, retiress and pensioners of course!!!
Where the fuck else do you thing the ca$h for bonuses is going to come from?
Who is going to get fucked?
I may be mistaken but relatively speaking the retirees and pensioners have done pretty fucking well over the past 50 years. The only minor exception are the people screwed by bullshite COLAs or inflation adjustments (which replace chicken for beef when beef prices rise, and pork for chicken when chicken prices rise, and 'lips and asses' for pork when pork prices rise, etc.) keeping inflation adjusted pensions constantly out of whack with reality. Other pensioner, I believe, have been saved by the government.
Unless, of course, you are speaking of those retirees expecting to retire at 60 with $1,000,000 and obtain 6% returns for the rest of their lives on 30-year treasuries. The $5K per month they expected is now 1/2 that amount, but they aren't the losers.
The people getting a good XXX-quality fucking are those born anywhere from the now through 50-years of age. We are midway through a Japan-quality lost decade and in the early stages of a lot generation. The only problem is 'this time it's different.' And, I say that only with a 20th Century perspective is that we only get out of this with a World War causing industry and demand to return. This, unfortunately, comes coupled with the death of millions of innocent young adults from around the world.
So, the youth get fucked. Further, they have already been fucked by receiving the worst education, worst nutrition, worst civics and government, and worst use of childhood in over 100 years in the US. Soon, I suspect we'll have kids dying in war whose live had consisted of PS3 and XBOX 360 before they'll be enlisted
I may be over-dramatizing the future, but it's bleak, both here and abroad. I don't mean to trivialize the plight of elderly, having both parents alive and in their 80s, but they've received the best healthcare in the history of mankind, seen the most amazing advances in the history of mankind, and will probably pass on as the world declines in to chaos. I guess this is fair play for a dad born 3 months before the crash of '29! We're fucked - in a lot of ways.
Just remember - The country boy will survive. I'm just bummed i'm not one and neither are my kids. (Pass me another Heineken - thanks.) Those who hunt, fish, and have wood burning stoves in their living rooms while living on the continental divide will be the wealthy of the rest of the 21st Century. No need for 4G, WiFi, stock markets, etc.
(No, I am not the Unibomber. He was caught - remember?)
accurate appraisal, my man
FYI. Retires don't live more than 10 -30 years. Get over it
I am against ANY retirement payout under soc sec ages. Fuck teachers govt and police/firefighters ect.
Go to Chicago and see what I mean
"Those who hunt, fish, and have wood burning stoves in their living rooms while living on the continental divide"
You got my attention there; I'm putting the finishing touches on a new house that just happens to be directly on the Eastern continental divide, on 3+ acres of wooded mountainside, with a wood stove in the great room. Why do you favor living on the continental divide? I never gave it much thought. All I saw was rainy summers and lots and lots of trees.
BTW, joining the Country Boy club isn't difficult. I was born in the Los Angeles area, but I moved into the Blue Ridge Mtns a long time back. Learning to hunt, fish, garden and tend a wood stove ain't rocket surgery. Plus, there's plenty of room out here and cheap land, if you don't mind living well up a steep, twisty gravel road. The Lowe's truck backs all the way up; it takes him about 10 minutes to make the last quarter mile (I can hear his back-up beeper).
Emerson - Thanks for the added 'thumbs up.'
Crucible - I'm very surprised that my rant while well-oiled last night got more upward pointing triangles than anything else I've written other in recent memory. I think an American under 50 realizes that we are getting fucked. And, I believe that every American over 50, not suffering from dementia, realizes they are getting away with murder. It must disturb them in some ways that it's the murder of their children, grandchildren, etc.
BTW - I am an appraiser in NYC. I'm used to providing values on $50m+ apartment buildings for people gifting to their heirs tax free. However, I just had the opportunity to appraise a 200+ acre parcel of land way our in western NYS. This guy had a lake, stream, waterfall, four hunting blinds built into the woods, 4x4a, and dozens of rifles and shotguns - and he was just a sportsman. I was in amazement that I had appraised 1/4 billion dollar apartment buildings on lot areas of under one acre, and that this acreage, above the Utica Shale and Marcellus shale, was worth less than 1/2 Mill. Crazy.. You could move there, dig a well (with the help of some serious talent able to go down deep enough to get the gas) and live with natural resources for the next dozen generations. Without an outside collapse, this person could have had his own well and lived free for live, banked money every month, and aided our economy. BUT - his brilliant neighbors (all retired fireman and bankers from NYC, banned fracking in the area - fuckers.)
Deep down I feel I know what's coming. I've teen buying gold and silver for my family and my parents now for almost a decade, but I am 100% sure that it will be useless on Long Island. The island has 4 days of food in reserve (at most) and few ways in-or-out.
When the shit hits the fan here - we'll have a hard time getting of the island. I just feel my instinct will be to get off L.I. rather than try to go to COSTCO. Who knows. It may all hit the fan on Tuesday when these two 'storms of the century' are reported to be merging over my house. Who knows.
However, I know the continental divide is not an easy place to live. However, I believe it's the easiest and best place to live should/when there is a meltdown of society. You can live for years on natural resources.
In my mind, something is very wrong. I've felt this way for a decade as I started buying gold at $482.50 and silver below $8. That's great and all, but as the bible says, gold does not beget gold. So, when the time comes, Long Island will be known as an OK place to have raised kids, but a really shitty place to have been when hell broke loose. Wife and family stuck on staying - what can I say.?
dvfco
+1, my vote didn't register.
It can't happen quick enough. The next step down to S&P 400
In my heart I'm that bearish - retest that 666. In my head, I know they will manipulate to hell and back to hold the POS up. I'll be happy just to get to S&P 1200 at this point...
Priced against gold, it may as well be (666).
QEx will turn out to be the biggest mistake ever
Especially when the market breaks the Mario/Bernanke supports. All that money liquidated into nothing. QE would be better just topping the government credit cards and/or buying cars for every sucker out there.
The monetary system is beyond a farce.
What did Al Capone say about the markets/stocks? He was right.
Anyways...
I don't know, Chump. What did Scarface say about stocks?
I love this quote.
http://www.imackgroup.com/mathematics/663876-gangster-al-capone-wall-str...
I guess he knew Joe Kennedy personally?
The market cannot break the support because the market simply does NOT exist.
The support is operationally provided by the trading desks of Primary Dealers. The pyramid will simply implode under the weight of extremely high prices stocks that mutual funds are selling due to withdraws and Primary Dealers are FORCED to buy.
It's going to be an implosion, not an explosion.
I see your point, but it's slightly confused. Look, Wall Street needs to take the chips of the table, did you see last Friday session? Nice. I traded that, cause you could see it coming. The main dealers, the asset allocators shift money quickly into DM trades. Most we could get is FX/option DM trades on leveraged margins, lethal I might add. Point is they are quicker (stocks selling/buying) than us, yes, there are central bank supports, but they are not forced to buy anything. The market is over priced anyway, valuation is stretched to hell. If you look at the Dow and S&P now, you'll see that it's now breaking tech supports, I don't trade off charts in this current market. But look for the shift between assets (prices), and try and figure out the trade. So we have profit taking now, dip buying then more selling - the sellers are now out weighing the buys. Does this crash? Maybe. Unless we live in a fixed asset market like commie Russia used too be (not yet) then yes, the whole thing is bought by cb's and government. At this point the private greed is still Wall Street. They blow yup again, which they will, there will be more bailouts and Fed money printing overkilling.
I agree, the ponzi will blow up when the inflation trade collapses into an all out liquidation trade and we go to year zero. I don't know the date for that.
I would still love to know your secrets on how you measure these things, as I trade strictly by charts. I've kind of figured out when a sell signal means buy, only because I can smell it and judge the character of the trade. That's not a quantifiable thing, though, and is trading somewhat on instinct. But it would sure be nice to have the backdrop of money movement to confirm. Is it a commitment of traders deal or what? Where can I find this stuff?
C'mon, I'll be nice. I won't tell.
:D
* Past performance is no guarantee of future results. (Or so I've heard. . . )
Well, be very careful then. With HFT, any implosion could be magnified to a nuclear bomb.
The 6 mth chart makes for OK reading, but the 3 year one may as well be any old thing!
hardly 'sits on top of' the one one underneath very well, and in any case the scales are quite different:
the rally from 900 to 1450 from 1985-1988 is 60% but
the rally from 150 to 340 from 2009 -2012 is 125%
So not entirely sure how they are supposed to be showing something 'similar'?
He said P/E exhaustion...
Many chart overlays have been presented on ZH in the past, each suggesting non-random correlation, but these two take the platinum prize.. Ask MatLab, R or whatever your stat tool of choice happens to be to look for the closest beta of 1 between the trailing six months of daily SPX % movements and some six-month period in market history, and voila! An eerie similarity emerges. Rinse and repeat the search a few weeks later to generate another ZH article to get idiots like me to read it. <yawn>
Do you find it at all interesting that the period that matched is the runup to the 87 crash?
Just wondering.
Also am I right that we are within a vag hair of triggering another hindenburg should the market sell off tomorrow ?
There's a bunch of billionaire hedge funds that support Romney - I think they tank the market through November 6th -on the 7th-with a Romney win, the market rallies for a couple weeks -then fiscal cliff really screws us, as it is apprarent the crooked politicians have no solutions -we are screwed.
I'm semi-surprised more people haven't posted this on ZH (except for the more generally right-ward tilt here) (no, I'm not an Obama fan)....
if i was an oligarch, or two or three, with no campaign $ spending caps.....i'd pull out all the stops to make my publicly unpalatable "turnaround" businessman "palatable" by election day....up to and including a market massacre.
Obama IS a middleman to the oligarchs.....
Romney is more or less ONE of them....
Just look at how that rascal has "come from behind"....
surely Kolob is on his side ;)
Spot on Savy. I was thinking the same thing. I am out of the markets except PM's and cash for now. I am not a professional investor anyway but thought this was the correct thing to do for now.
Plus Ben needs to buy back about 8,000 tons of bullion and needs a selling wave to buy into.
most crashes are a function of market failures. this market is no where near a point of failure... yet*.
* inevitable failure will be 'used' when determined to be politically optimal.
I like pretneding that reality will come back soon too...but alas the tickle-me-algos at the Fed already have the futures up 6 points. Looks like we could be in store for another red letter day tomorrow up over 20 points on the S&P. We can't embarass El Commissar!
You matched up squiggly lines with squiggly lines. You get a star!
SHORT EVERYTHING!!!
(Don't forget to put your hands up, there might be a camera at the bottom!)
But we have Obama or Romney and the Bernank to protect us this time.
Fiscal Cliff Ride?
History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme
sell life into strength
in the meantime, to 'flex' buy / sell whatever seems 'comfortable'
the remainder.. well, the remainder is why...
As much as I want this thing over with, it does allow us more time to be PM and stock up! I have decided I dont wan to be a millionare or a billionare, with Ben's help we can be Trillionare's!!!
How cool would that be!
So on one hand ZH claims we have no free markets anymore (TRUE!), but on the other hand ZH analyses the same markets and its data as if they are sound. Isn't that hypocrite?
Buy gold.
great stuff
My thesis is bullish. A banking panic is not going to happen when banks get free money and the printing press is on full blast. Turn that chart upside down. The stink you smell is short panic. They know deep down inside, that no matter what kind of idiocy they spout, the 20% upside day is more likely.
Despite what Kaminsky shouted, on what will forever be known as K-day (this is K+2), the cheap money has only just begun to flow. The big reset that Bernanke has tried to delay is still ahead. There can be no end to giving printed money to the banks until they are solvent. There can be no end to giving printed money to the government until the debt is paid off. These things will not happen without a massive surge in printing.
Like it or not, markets move on easy credit and cheap money.
The U.S. military and patriots everywhere had better step in soon. That chart should make it clear as to why.
Tis the season for monetary treason.
Well primary wave 3 down - here we come.
bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-closes-week/
The drop from two days ago doesn't appear to be following through - US Dollar falling again, Gold and markets climb back up. And while the US Dollar falls, the Euro rises, because Europe has recovered and the depression is over.
Until this whole thing caves, my guess is you need to trend P/E divided by the dollar weighted average cost of money in the two time periods. Granted those leveraged on expensive money will dropping out on P/E news, but my guess is that unless this is the grain of sand that starts the slide the correction will not be large. The latest Ben to banks move was a crutch for the come off in P/E. Goldilocks porridge on this time scale.
Markets are fractal. One can find many overlays for any time period that have different outcomes. Pick the one you want - it doesn't mean that is what will happen, unfortunately.
If trading were as easy as dropping an analog over a recent market period to date, we would all be rolling in fiat.
The correlation here is not very pronounced.
it's not too hard to profit from but, beware that it's not backed by fundamentals.
http://covert.ias3.com/expose/
Ah yes, the classic Zerohedge "overlay two charts that are similar looking", second only to the "plot two unrelated time series, and point out that they have crossed".
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