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Initial Claims Beat This Week, Will Miss Post Revision, As Core Capital Goods Shipments Miss For Third Month

Tyler Durden's picture




 

When we reported on the surge in last week's initial claims from 342K to 388K, we made one simple forecast: "Remember: this number will be revised to 391K next week." We were off: it was revised to 392K. In other words, the data charlatainism at the DOL continues unabated. And of course, today's Initial Claims number which magically "beat" expectations by 1K, printing at 369K, on expectations of 370K, will be revised to a miss of 372K next week. The BLS has become a total farce. In other manipulated news, the BLS reported the culprit for last week's surge in Claims: it was California, which saw a +26,935 jump in initial claims, due to "Layoffs across all sectors, with the largest share from the service industry." This somehow is supposed to offset the -4,979 claims drop from the week before, when all those plunges and jumps in claims took place. Elsewhere, the number of Americans on extended claims and EUCs dropped to 2.1 million, down 1.4 million from a year earlier.

This is how claims data looks like taken at face value and looked at from an adjusted, post-revision, standpoint, courtesy of John Lohman.

Rounding up the economic picture was more data misdirection frustrations from the Census bureau, which reported a whopping 9.9% surge in durable goods orders on expectations of a 7.5% rise, entire driven by nondefense aircraft and parts. This followed the August collapse which was revised from 13.2% to 13.1%. The spike was driven entirely by the transportation sector: Durable Goods ex transportation were up just 2.0%. But as usual one needs to dig into the data to get a good sense of what is truly going on absent Boeing's volatile order book (which can be cancelled with one phone call), and which soared by 2,640% (from 535MM to 14.7BN): Capital Goods excluding aircraft declined by 0.3% on expectations of a 0.8% increase, following a 1.2% decline last month, and down 1.6% from the month before. This was the third Cap Goods number in a row that has missed expectations, and is the only relevant number in the entire series from a macroeconomic standpoint.

Overall an ugly report which will likely results in a reduction in GDP forecasts when the beancounters boot up their abacuses.

 

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Thu, 10/25/2012 - 08:56 | 2918146 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Initial Claims Beat This Week, Will Miss Post Revision, As Core Capital Goods Shipments Miss For Third Month

 

Didn't really need to read past the title.....pretty much summed it up.

 

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:48 | 2918264 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

This week is going to be different, I am sure the BLS finally overestimated the number.

 

Channelling George Carlin's tv show character that used to say something like "I can't miss Matlock this week because this is the week Matlock won't solve the crime."

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:24 | 2918372 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

My brother-in-law's second wife's sister's 2nd cousin's neighbor's mom heard about a part-time job burger-flippin' at two locations. There's

8 jobs right there.  

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 08:56 | 2918149 Gandalf6900
Gandalf6900's picture

Mama can I have a dollar for ice cream? Here's a food stamp my son...

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 08:57 | 2918151 jjsilver
jjsilver's picture

It is not a matter of what is true that counts, but a matter of what is perceived to be true." Henry Kissinger

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:43 | 2918246 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

" It's not who you are it's who they think you are."

Old man Joe "Beelzebub " Kennedy, father of JFK.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 08:58 | 2918153 monopoly
monopoly's picture

A waste of numbers. When does the truth come out?

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 08:59 | 2918157 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

as soon as you leave your house and go "into town".

Hedge accordingly.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:06 | 2918174 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Lies upon lies upon lies.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:12 | 2918180 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Gave Hillary a chuckle.

 

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 08:58 | 2918154 GilgalMarkets
GilgalMarkets's picture

The Data department is manipulating all!!!!!!!!!!1

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 08:58 | 2918155 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The song remains the same, "beating expectations"  all...    the...    way...   down...

 

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 08:59 | 2918156 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

In the news today the believability index fell the most today in the msm pre election spin of the jobs report. It is reported by some that quote" we wake up and watch the news in the morning with our cup of coffee to make a good bowel movement and then go to zerohedge to get the real news." That about does it folks and remember to get all the latest news here at ZH and make sure to read all comments as they are insightful and entertaining! have a great day!

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:01 | 2918160 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

great chart ZH....explains it all

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:26 | 2918213 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

But Tyler you could help us memory-challenged readers with ebbing vision by regularly posting how many weeks in a row it is that the data is revised in the 'correct' direction. I know a lot of people competent in statistics who pooh-pooh my complaints about the BLS until they hear the number of weeks of unidirectional revisions there are, then I can hear crickets chirping. When you do post it please use BIG numbers. Thank you.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:53 | 2918281 Curt W
Curt W's picture

I believe this is 84 or 85 straight weeks where they revised up.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:10 | 2918331 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

So if we find out who at the BLS was sick or on vacation Presidents day week 2011 we can indentify a prime suspect, hmmm.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:27 | 2918385 Curt W
Curt W's picture

It is also incredible that the revision is nearly always between 3 and 5K

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:05 | 2918163 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

When the whole population has finally dropped out of the labor force, the unemployment rate will be zero. Problem: the employment will also be zero.

That's the beauty of statistics.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:06 | 2918171 realtick
realtick's picture

No Manufacturing Jobs = No Real Economic Growth

http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2012/10/no-manufacturin...

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:20 | 2918195 toomanyfakecons...
toomanyfakeconservatives's picture

Thank you NAFTA and treasonous globalists.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 11:03 | 2918514 Bob
Bob's picture

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neo-liberalism

The Chicago school of economics describes a neoclassical school of thought within the academic community of economists, with a strong focus around the faculty of University of Chicago.

The school emphasizes non-intervention from government and generally rejects regulation in markets as inefficient with the exception of central bank regulation of the money supply (i.e. monetarism). It is associated with neoclassical price theory and libertarianism and the rejection of Keynesianism in favor of monetarism until the 1980s, when it turned to rational expectations. The school has impacted the field of finance by the development of the efficient market hypothesis.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:31 | 2918223 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Almost, but not quite.  Think about it.  You need energy in order to manufacter or do anything.

The human population is still growing exponentially.

Do some homework for yourself and investigate whether or not energy production on the earth is also growing exponentially.

You might be surprised by what you find out because the equation is considerable more simple; no energy=no eCONomy.

The world is currently suffering from a massive mis-allocation and mal-investment of captial and resources.

Shit, in my sector, fresh water, is going to be a major fucking problem in the future.

Stop with the growth meme, "eCONomic growth" in the traditional text-book sense is fucking dead.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:39 | 2918237 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

Hence the need for the culling.....

NWO style.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:58 | 2918291 Curt W
Curt W's picture

A very real possibility within 10 years.  But they will cull in the old school manner soon.  War.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:06 | 2918172 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

 

 

The bottom line:  What America sees on CNBC and other MSM shithead fucktard networks, is what they believe.  Our average retarded voter can't or won't read beyond a headline, nor try to seek proof of widely puked "data", because it takes away from their iTard device or posting pictures of their prized navel lint collection on Faceplant.

I fucking hate what this fucking country has become and where it continues to go.

 

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:17 | 2918191 toomanyfakecons...
toomanyfakeconservatives's picture

Agreed. The part about 14,000 adult Americans on food stamps per Walmart Supercenter is what gets me. That is their way of masking what should be a 44 million person soup line.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:34 | 2918228 Frozen IcQb
Frozen IcQb's picture

America was a concept that died forty years ago.

We may be US citizens but we are no longer Americans.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:43 | 2918245 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Technically, that was almost 100 years ago and you are in fact "a tenant of the Corporation of United States of America".  Go read the Federal reserve act and all it's amendments.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:35 | 2918176 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

"Average retarded voter" = All products of the government public education/manipulation system.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:14 | 2918185 toomanyfakecons...
toomanyfakeconservatives's picture

More lying with statistics.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:27 | 2918215 RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

my brother was in the unemployment office and was told the economy "has never been worse", so the truth is out there. but it isn't reported that way. car service driver in nyc i know said there are tons of drivers and no rides, which for mid october is extremely unusual and disturbing.  we are in the midst of depression 2. accept it.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:27 | 2918217 adr
adr's picture

If Obama wins a second term and the statisitcs keep being manipulated like this, the false number will surpass the real number.

BLS jobs created out of thin air will surpass the true number of full time employees.

Housing starts will surpass the number of actual built homes.

Fed electronic money will surpass the actual level of circulated cash. Wait I think that one actually already happened.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:38 | 2918235 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

And there will be a sale at Walmart on pitchforks and torches.  Karma.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:42 | 2918242 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

CNBC is showing that AGL Resources was up 400,800% this morning on the front page, but the large chart only shows .2%. Flash?

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:52 | 2918272 Roland99
Roland99's picture

The revision to last week was a 0.25% revision.

 

Ummm...

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:29 | 2918391 covert
covert's picture

faked numbers? why not?!

covert.ias3.com/expose

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:08 | 2918323 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Unadjusted is back down 35K YOY.  It's all good.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:41 | 2918434 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Max employees is 30 that a company can have without having to pay insurance. So part time is the answer. I personally think companies should go to all part-time under the table employees paid in cash only to keep up with other 3rd world economies. Then you get your food stamps, Obamaphone and college loans and you are fuckin stylin dude.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 11:49 | 2918692 FrankDrakman
FrankDrakman's picture

The good news is the chocolate ration has been increased to 10 grammes.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!