This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Presidential Election Preview 1: Timeline And Fiscal Cliff Flowchart

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The fast-approaching US presidential election is perhaps one of the most important in recent history, with Goldman noting that the fate of near-term US economic growth, medium-term US fiscal stability (and, with it, the US sovereign debt rating) and monetary policy hinging on the outcome. In an effort to provide as succinct a view of these potential events, we present a four-part series previewing the big day. Below, we lay out the key dates and likely paths to resolution of the "fiscal cliff"; the most important and most imminent challenge that the elected candidate will be forced to face just after the election.

 

 

 

Charts: Goldman Sachs

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:44 | Link to Comment eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

I don't need a timeline. I just want to know who will win. Romney or Obama?

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:45 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

12 daze from Thunderdome.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:52 | Link to Comment exi1ed0ne
exi1ed0ne's picture

Here's my flowchart:

 

Election -------------> We're fucked

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:01 | Link to Comment Lohn Jocke
Lohn Jocke's picture

Long enough timeline, bitchez?!?!

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:16 | Link to Comment exi1ed0ne
exi1ed0ne's picture

Yeah, I probably have too many dashes. . .

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:13 | Link to Comment toady
toady's picture

Here's mine;

We're fucked -> Election -> We're fucked

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:15 | Link to Comment exi1ed0ne
exi1ed0ne's picture

lol - greenie for you

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:37 | Link to Comment Shleprock
Shleprock's picture

Electile disfunction baby!!!!

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:47 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

I don't know who'se going to win, but I sure as shit know who'se going to lose - all of us.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:04 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Chose straight into hell....or max pain.

 

Ain't no plan C.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:12 | Link to Comment machineh
machineh's picture

... while Israel laffs all the way to the bank with the free loot and free protection.

http://washington.cbslocal.com/2012/10/25/us-israel-hold-largest-ever-joint-military-drill/

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:47 | Link to Comment Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

Let me spare you the suspense: Obamney wins; we all lose.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:57 | Link to Comment hawk nation
hawk nation's picture

Romney will win

His lead is toobigforthe dems to cheat

Romney will walk into office or before he gets sworn in the dems/banksters will collapse the system blaming it on the republicans and we will find out what life is like without being the reserve currency

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:03 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Maybe you need to read up on who is some of Romney's key donors.  Other than that, many, many concerns.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

Mitt Romney corporate contribute whores.

  1. Goldman Sachs $965,140
  2. BOA $844,734
  3. Morgan Stanley  $768,216
  4. JPMorgan Chase $749, 918
  5. Credit Suisse  $588, 841


 
Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:29 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

Yep, they are also the same corporate whores who contributed about the same to Obama's election in 2008. What's your point?

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Don't go confusing the poor guy with facts Sloane. The red and blue syndrome has a grip on his reality.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 11:34 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

Christ, ZH just had an article that specifically delineated Obama's and the DNC's campaign contributors in 2008 and compared those to Romney's and the RNC's now. They are the same. But he lives in a politically bi-polar world and only one side of the ledger counts.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

Goldman puts Mittens in and promises they have his back when he leaps off the fiscal cliff.  Follow the money.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:30 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

You might want to do the same for Obama in 2008.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 11:19 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

0_o

WTF does

You might want to do the same for Obama in 2008.

have to do with this

Romney will walk into office or before he gets sworn in the dems/banksters will collapse the system blaming it on the republicans and we will find out what life is like without being the reserve currency

Perhaps you need to read the second quote slower so that you would understand my response to the OP. 

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 11:39 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

You wrote "Maybe you need to read up on who is some of Romney's key donors. Other than that, many, many concerns."

I wrote: "You might want to do the same for Obama in 2008"

Its the same donor list, you moron, with approximately the same amount of money going to each but at different times. ZH had an article about the very same thing. If you can't read it, have an adult read it to you.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 11:56 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Okay, I figured you had a higher IQ than 80, but you have proven me wrong.  Now I have to explain this like I'm talking to a child. 

The OP posted

Romney will walk into office or before he gets sworn in the dems/banksters will collapse the system blaming it on the republicans and we will find out what life is like without being the reserve currency

Now what word is bolded?  That's correct, you get a gold star now.  Now let us tie this word in with the rest of the OP sentence.  Saying the bankers will collapse the markets if Romney wins, implies what? 

Please, if any of this confuses you, pick up some Hooked-On-Phonics to help you.  I'd prefer if you just killed yourself instead though. 

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 12:08 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

I already typed word for word what you typed [that's called a quote] and my response to it. If you're now implying that what you typed is so egregiously stupid and you're disowning it, I don't blame you. Of course you want me to kill myself, you're a childish partisan of the worst order and the only way you make any point is to 'wish' that the other party will go away. On any level, your last learning event was peek-a-boo with your mommy.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 13:20 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Holy fuck you're the biggest idiot I have had the pleasure of dealing with on this site.  Sweet Jesus, how do you not understand the fact that the OP is stating that the bankers will crash it if Romney wins, to which I said he needs to look at Romney's biggest donors. You are a complete moron if you think I'm partisan, you really need to look at my post history. It's no wonder many people that used to frequent this site a couple of years ago have not returned, as they are tired of dealing with idiots, such as you.  Please do the world a favor and kill yourself so that we can raise the level of intelligence of society.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 13:48 | Link to Comment ExpendableOne
ExpendableOne's picture

I think you need to get out the big crayon and draw him a picture.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:06 | Link to Comment eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

Romney only leads in popular polls. Will he get enough votes from electoral colleges? 

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:21 | Link to Comment A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Right. Absolute proof that your vote for the lesser of two evils doesn't fucking matter anyway.............

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:07 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

OT:

Trade for today:

SHORT AAPL / LONG AMZN

Even the most bulltard analyst of tech (Munster) sees both missing cons. on both EPS and Rev.  For AAPL that means minus $50, for AMZN that means + $20.  

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:47 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

The fast-approaching US presidential election is perhaps one of the most important in recent history....

recent history as in....since the last election? i call bullshit on the importance of this election...americas policies do not change, regardless of who is in office.....corporatocracy/centralized big government fed domination will continue on...ndaa wont be repealed, patriot act wont be repealed, drones will continue flying overhead, the fed will continue to control rates and dictate markets, big banks will continue to pull the strings of congressmen, the pentagon will continue with its welfare program......................bush=obama=romney..............

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:51 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You made the same point I was going to make. We have heard every four years that this is the most important election in history........Shut the F%*k up already. I'm tired of hearing that.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:55 | Link to Comment Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

Exactly. Looking at the bottom line of the above chart the Economic Outlook is Fiscal Drag no matter who wins.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:58 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

I think the most appropriate phrase about this election is, "This is one of the most inconsequential Presidential elections in American history." 

DON'T get out and vote.  The only difference will be the color of the horse cock being inserted into your anus.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:03 | Link to Comment Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

I'm 54 yrs old and this will be the first time since turning 18 that I won't cast a ballot. I'm having mixed emotions about it but definately not going to vote this time.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:05 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

You can always do a write in.  Dildo for Pres, and Dog Shit for VP!

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:12 | Link to Comment Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

That's who's gonna win anyway.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:07 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'm 49 and I've never missed an election. I won't this time either. I am going to write in Ron Paul. I can at least send them a message.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:08 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

I was going to vote for Gary Johnson, but then after realizing that the DIEbold machines would probably switch votes in Ohio I changed my position and just will not vote.  They don't care about the message until no one shows up.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:56 | Link to Comment nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

"... until no one shows up."

I'd wager that is their plan.

What we called republic/democracy as a form of government is dead since a few decades ago. Not sure what to call it now but seems a very unstable form of decadent monarchy.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:17 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I'm 35 and have never voted. Until this election I had the George Carlin philosophy. I may vote this year. As of right now I am torn between writing in Lawsofphysics or JPMhater.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:29 | Link to Comment Alpo for Granny
Alpo for Granny's picture

Our own ZH election. That would be badass. As long as I can be head of the FDA and increase the quality of this Alpo, i'll be happy.

I am thinking Truth in Sunshine, CPL, Laws of Physics, JPM Hater and a few others for candidates.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:54 | Link to Comment odatruf
odatruf's picture

It's too bad we could not bundle our vote in a binding way so as to force someone to address reality.

 

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:35 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

I thought about writing in the good Doc, or slewie_the_pi_rat. Lawsofphysics would definately rock. I could see him forcing congress to grow their own food if they wanted to eat, and reducing their paychecks to zero unless they produce something valuable.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:43 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I like Doc and Kito etc. too much to write them in. I figure if we put a good man in there with morals and principles to do what needed to be done there would not be enough bulletproof material around to stop what would be coming. Lawsofphysics has the fear factor. He seems like an angry Jesse Ventura.

I would love to see Nmewn and Crocket Almanac in the house and LTER in the senate to ensure gridlock.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 11:42 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

LawsofPhysics for Pres, Dr. Engali for Vice Pres, or you can switch them. Nmewn reminds me of Nigel Farage. I would love to see him let loose in congress.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

Ill vote for the candidate that is willing to share his/her spoils with me.....oh wait....that is the old paradigm......never mind.......

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment toady
toady's picture

I had to vote this time. Too many tax increases on the ballot to skip it.

I already wrote in Ron Paul and mailed my early ballot

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 12:12 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

Good for you, Doc. I'm going to do the same, or vote for Jill Stein in protest of her arrest before the Rombama vs Rombama debate. The Green Party has now filed a lawsuit against the Commission on Presidential Debates.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:09 | Link to Comment machineh
machineh's picture

By not voting, you avoid making yourself an accomplice to murder and racketeering.

Shun the polls, spare your reputation.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

By not voting AGAINST the tyrants, you facilitate their facade of mandate.

If more people demanded other options it would expose the farce of the false 2-party dichotomy.

As it stands they are gaining legitimacy, not losing it.

1992 
Faux Choice Loser 39,104,550
3rd Party + Write-ins 20,409,567
NoShow (+ ineligible) 85,105,077

1996
Faux Choice Loser 39,198,755
3rd Party + Write-ins 9,678,754
NoShow (+ ineligible) 100,233,366

2000
Faux Choice Loser 50,460,110
3rd Party + Write-ins 3,941,064
NoShow (+ ineligible) 100,409,900

2004
Faux Choice Loser 59,028,439
3rd Party + Write-ins 1,198,504
NoShow (+ ineligible) 93,426,447

2008
Faux Choice Loser 59,930,551
3rd Party + Write-ins 3,275,970
NoShow (+ ineligible) 98,584,076

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:01 | Link to Comment Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

Who cares? For this perpetual growth, 5-second attention and memory span, sensational, immediate-gratification, pleasure chasing media and general public, records are meant to be broken on a daily basis.

That's the only way the sheeple can be mesmerized from looking away and noticing the matrix.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:57 | Link to Comment crusty curmudgeon
crusty curmudgeon's picture

It has been said that all great truths pass through three stages (I'm paraphrasing here but this is the basic idea): 

1.  It is ridiculed and those who state it are mocked

2.  It is vehemently denied and disputed

3.  It is accepted as self evident.

Is it just me, or is the idea of non-voting (i.e., refusing to participate in a rigged game) passing into the second stage?

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:48 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

It would not take 3.5 to equal recession. 2.0 easily would wipe out the paltry 1.5 rate we are running at. With Citi calling for 1% or less for Q4 it wouldn't take much to knock the whole house of cards over.

Get ready for fun times.

Not even a peep on debt ceiling which will be reached by December. Of course Timmy will raid pensions until he exits in January.

These folks have serious problems and very little time to solve all of it at once.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:50 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

No need to worry about that cliff...

December Fed meeting with Benny and the Inkjets - MOAR MOAR MOAR - how do you like it, MORE, MORE MORE!

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:53 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Total horseshit.  Two fucking puppets with the same puppet master.

I expect talks of secession among local sovereign tribes around the world to increase (about as politely as I can put it).

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 12:15 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

I hear you, Laws. Something tells me that we're going to find out exactly how much our second amendment rights are protected.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:55 | Link to Comment Rubbish
Rubbish's picture

Too much thinking, just work, pay your taxes, retire, then die.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:01 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

"Too much thinking"

Central bankers, politicians and the talking heads on CNBC all have the same opinion...

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:56 | Link to Comment goodrich4bk
goodrich4bk's picture

If there is no difference between the candidates, how is the outcome at all important?

In any event, I frankly have no interest in passing on our debt to kids.  Those who incurred it should pay --- with service cuts and tax increases. 

I'm voting for Thelma and Louise.

 

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

" If there is no difference between the candidates, how is the outcome at all important..."

Think of Pro Wrestling. The show is the product. People like elections. It makes them feel good, like they matter and their opinions count.

Muppets. They're sentimental.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:04 | Link to Comment alstry
alstry's picture

FISCAL CLIFF?

Soon Americans will owe the FED $4 Trillion dollars.  $4 Trillion?  Why don't we just hand over our virgin daughters.....

Here is a hot looking Brazillian that got paid almost a million for her virginity:

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/brazilian-student-sells-virginity-780-000-034334755.html?ugccmtnav=v1%2Fcomments%2Fcontext%2Fd69880f4-ad43-35a9-861c-0714d99db4a0%2Fcomments%3Fcount%3D20%26sortBy%3Doldest

With a few million hot looking daughters, we can get this debt paid off in no time.

It truly is an http://www.udderworld.com as we all milk off each other.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 09:59 | Link to Comment Hulk
Hulk's picture

Fiscal cliff will be moved one year out. Printing will continue in earnest. Exponential function will be known to all...

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:03 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

"Exponential function will be known to all..."

7% a year doesn't sound like much - oh crap...

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:07 | Link to Comment Hohum
Hohum's picture

It is the most important election in recent history until the next one.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:09 | Link to Comment Dexter Morgan
Dexter Morgan's picture

Since there is a total media blackout nobody knows the other candidates.  The debate on Tuesday night with the other parties showed the difference between honest, open debates and the scam the currently exists.  They are having another one on 10/30.  According to Gallup there are 40% Independents, 31% Dems, 27% Reps.  There are more of us than there are for them.  We don't have to vote for these bastards, we have a choice.  See freeandequal.org who is sponsoring the debates.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 11:43 | Link to Comment Joe Davola
Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:10 | Link to Comment A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Resolution of the "fiscal cliff"? By Politicians? Not likely IMH(hopiumless)O.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:19 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Goldman Notes...hinging on the outcome

You've got to be kidding me.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:28 | Link to Comment Patriot Eke
Patriot Eke's picture

A vote for Romney is a vote for Obama.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:37 | Link to Comment geno-econ
geno-econ's picture

Fiscal DRAG like inhaling a weed for the next 15 years which will stupify the economy whether it be a 1% or 2% Drag.  Some say better to face the music now with a 2 or 3 year recession/depression wherby an economic policy reset takes place. Those with huge wealth will take a big hit while at the lower end not much to lose. It's called redistribution of wealth and getting back to building an economy. Question is whether it can be accomplished gradually or suddenly without civil unrest. History and the Universe suggests a fiscal currency reset or rebirth takes place with a BIG BANG.  Early next year will be revealing, so keep your powder dry and risk tolerance on the conservative side.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 11:13 | Link to Comment vix is for kids
vix is for kids's picture

The fiscal speed bump will hardly be noticeable.  The inertia of the U.S. economy (i.e. a body at rest tends to stay at rest) will absorb this fluctuation like the noise that it is.

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 11:29 | Link to Comment michael_engineer
michael_engineer's picture

Speaking of the elections, how about the recent comment from a candidate about how pregnancy from rape is akin to a gift from God.

I thought the bankers claims of doing God's "work" was a rotten, hypocritical, and false claim from them.

But this "gift from God" mentality on pregnancy from rape has sunk to a new low. Under that reasoning, rapists could claim that they are just doing God's work too, just like "the bankers".

Bankers and rapists and politicians. What a combination.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!