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Presidential Election Preview 3: Swing States And The Horserace
The 2012-2013 election season is exceptional, with more than 100 elections in economies accounting for approximately 60% of global GDP. So far, Goldman notes that markets have navigated through elections in Russia, Egypt, Greece, France, Mexico and Venezuela, among others. The closely watched Presidential election in the US will take place shortly, followed by the culmination of the political transition in China. Later on, markets will see countries like Italy, Iran, and Japan go to the ballots too. This extraordinary election season brings several questions to the forefront: Why are elections important market events? What are the main factors affecting that market-driving impact and its seasonality? And which states are key? Critically, Goldman finds that a divided government has on average produced considerably tighter fiscal policy - not a good sign.
Why elections matter
There are at least three reasons why elections matter for markets.
- First, the political stakes in elections often translate into policy changes that reshape the economic environment.
- Second, the regularity with which elections take place may lead to cyclical patterns in government and investment behavior.
- Third, elections can markedly increase uncertainty.
These factors can affect all asset classes, especially equities because of their strong sensitivity to changes in the economic outlook.
Election cycles and equities: Bad news for the first 2 years
The US Presidential election cycle matters for equity returns, at home and abroad. US Presidential election cycles (four-year cycles that always start between the second and eighth of November) since 1928, have tended to produce considerably lower US equity price returns in the first two years of the four-year cycle than in the last two (with historical averages around 3%-4% vs. 10%-12%). This is true even when attempting to account for other seasonal, market and economic factors.
US election process explained
- The US presidential election is held every four years on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Voters do not, technically, participate in a direct election of the president. They choose “electors”, who are pledged to one or another candidate. This is known as the Electoral College. The Electoral College consists of 538 electors. A majority of 270 electoral votes is required to elect the President.
- Each state has a certain number of electors to the college, based on the size of its population. Specifically, each state’s entitled allotment of electors equals the number of members in its Congressional delegation: one for each member in the House of Representatives plus one for each of its two Senators.
- In almost every state, the winner of the popular vote gets all the electoral college votes in that state. Because of this system, a candidate can take the White House without winning the popular vote. The exceptions to this are Maine and Nebraska, where the state winner receives two Electors and the winner of each congressional district receives one Elector. The District of Columbia is allocated 3 electors and treated like a state for purposes of the Electoral College.
- On the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December after the presidential election, the electors meet in their respective states, where they cast their votes for President and Vice President on separate ballots. Each state’s electoral votes are counted in a joint session of Congress on the 6th of January in the year following the meeting of the electors. The Vice President, as President of the Senate, presides over the count and announces the results of the vote. The President-Elect takes the oath of office and is sworn in as President of the United States on January 20th in the year following the Presidential election.
- If no Presidential candidate wins 270 or more electoral votes, the House of Representatives decides the Presidential election. The House would elect the President by majority vote, choosing from the three candidates who received the greatest number of electoral votes. The vote would be taken by state, with each state having one vote. It would be up to the group of representatives from each state to decide among themselves how their state would cast its one and only vote. Smaller states like Wyoming, Montana and Vermont, with only one representative would wield as much power as California or New York. The House would have until the 4th of March to select a president.
Source: National Archives and Records Administration (NARA), US Federal Register.
The Electoral Votes And Presidential Leanings
The Swing States...
And their Employment Picture...
But the bottom line is that this looks ending with a Divided-Government - which bodes very poorly historically for the fiscal laxness that so many Keynesians are demanding...
Charts: Goldman Sachs
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If Romney can't win Ohio, he will be GAME OVER.
How 50% of America still wants Obama as President is just fucking sickening!
Because 90% of Americans are fucking stoooopid
And also because there are too many blacks and Hispanics in the States now.
All the fake numbers we see day in and day out yet polling for this thing is accurate, factual, and neutral?!?
fuu, we will see.
But, it all comes down to OHIO, (eigenvalue has that right) Florida and Virginia are already expected to go to Romney. It all comes down to turnout. THEN we see how our next four years start stacking up. Speaking of stacking...
We will see what? That the poll stats are as made up as unemployment numbers, housing starts, GDP, CPI, LIBOR, CNBS viewership, or the S&P 500 daily close? I guess that will be revelatory.
I don't think you can manufacture consent with real numbers, if the numbers were real consent would not need to be manufactured.
Romney will get FL, VA, OH NV, all the lean to's and more.
This election is not as close as the registered voter polls balanced on 2008 election turnouts might suggest.
Just 90????!!!!
The fact that anybody thinks any of this is real or matters is nothing short of irrefutable evidence of mass delusion.
Here's a trick question. Now, think hard, because it's a "trick" question:
What would happen if 51% of the vote went to "None of the Above"?
I understand that then this rule from above would apply: "If no Presidential candidate wins 270 or more electoral votes, the House of Representatives decides the Presidential election."
If romney cant win Ohio considering his family owns the voting machines he definitely Does Not have what it takes to be president.
If you're not cheating, you're not trying.
Election in Ukraine in 2 days... could be really interesting....
Then US election Nov. 6, then China, Nov.8... then SKorean presidential election on Dec. 19.
NKorea might test a nuke before the SKorean election or do something else stupid to influence the election.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/1233325/1/.html
And about Ohio...
http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20121025/NEWS010601/310250037&Ref=AR?...
Ohio's nightmare voting scenarioA new Ohio program intended to make voting easier could keep the presidential election in doubt until late November if the national outcome hinges on the state’s 18 electoral votes.
In Arkansas... Johnson and Lindsay are ahead of the two crooks.
http://arkansasmatters.com/electionresults
AR U.S. President
Peta Lindsay 31831 29%
Gary Johnson 23717 22%
Mitt Romney 23279 21%
Barack Obama 21863 20%
Jill Stein 9598 9%
January 22 : election in Israel... the extremist right wingers will probably win and then go to war with Iran.
Any candidate who believes a plant with medicial properties (or any plant for that matter) should be illegal is a fucking idiot.
Triffids, bitchez!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Day_of_the_Triffids
No candidate has that belief. In fact, no candidate has ANY BELIEF whatsoever other then believing that they need to do whatever big money tells them they need to do to raise the capital needed to buy themselves another four years of living off the taxpayers back.
This is all a farce. The longer we pretend it's real, the longer it will continue.
JUST SAY "FUCK NO!"
" Critically, Goldman finds that a divided government has on average produced considerably tighter fiscal policy - not a good sign."
On average..except the last two times it has happened (Bush and Obama).
NO! To all of this election of misallocation of captial. DAMN IT!
For how long do we plan to pretend that US "elections" are real or matter?
They aren't "elections" they are "selections" and the "people" don't have diddly shit to do with who the fuck is "selected".
ZH has a reputation of being smart. The constant harping on the delusional belief that these elections are in any way meaningful or real serves only to discredit ZH and place in the not so rarefied atmosphere of MSM.
Call this "election" what it is: BULLSHIT.
To give it more credence than that is self destructive to a reputation that was earned by being relentless pursuers of truth.
Fucking eh right aIQ. Nicely posted Sir.
Vote by not voting.
I thank Baby Jesus I missed "Presidential Election Preview 1 & 2" too.
Keep Obama in president, u kno.. he gave us a phone.. he gon do more.
Please. Just stop it. None of this matters. Either way, THEY win. You still believe there is a difference between these two jokers {besides skin color}. The so-called conservatives who are supporting Romney are comatose. They wouldn't know a real conservative if they saw one {Goldwater was the last one, 1964}. Romney presided over legal homo-marriage in Fagachusettes. He also supported gun control. His state was the model for government healthcare while he was governor. He is beholden to the banks and military industrial complex. We all know by now what Obama is {socialist}. When they speak of solving unemployment, what they really mean, is how they plan on re-inflating the economy. Go ahead and try that. Hello $8@gal gas. Hello skyrocketing groceries. Folks, there is no easy way out of this mess, and something has to give. Neither candidate has a plan. All they have is talk of the same old tired, worn out messages. I can't see how we have much more time under this system, it is broken beyond repair, and it will soon be chucked into the scrap heap. What comes next is what scares me. Living in Florida, my phone rings off the hook all day long, calls from pollsters. I can't wait for this charade to be over. Funny how the pollsters all ask who am I voting for, Obama or Romney, like there is no one else besides them running. When I tell them Gary Johnson they get confused, "Gary Who?" I might as well say Bugs Bunny, at least they would know who I was talking about.
There seems to be a meme which has developed since 2008...namely that the system is BROKEN.
From what I can see, the system seems to be fine....EXCEPT that it is being administered and operated by criminals.
A commercial airline jet will crash if the pilot is not well trained. No one would say that the jet hardware was defective.
A landscaper will not yield good results performing bypass surgery. Doesn't mean the surgical theater is lacking.
Untalented actors or a poorly written script do not make a Broadway musical smash hit. Not the theater's seats and stages fault.
The founding fathers set up a pretty fucking good stage for we current crop of players.
Choose the leadership YOU want...keep track of what they are doing via a free and unregulated press and de-politicized legal process...and hey...if even ALL those safeguards FAIL...then throw the fuckers out. And, by the way, you can all have GUNS.
It takes a very special breed of IDIOT to fuck that up. And an even bigger idiot to blame it on a broken SYSTEM.
Revoke the FED charter and revert to a sound system of trade money. How about gold and silver...and copper too.
Don't allow criminals to conduct criminal activity under "color of law". What is criminal activity? Refer back to your CONSTITUTION. It's very short and can be read in an hour.
Broken system? Fuck you and your ilk too lazy to stand up and demand change. Internet warriors.
Let's roll.
Dear Zero Hedge:
Why do you even allow yourselves to devote internet column inches to this farce?
Who gives a damn who gets in?
Benny for one....
Hey, wouldnt it be kinda, you know, like, cool and junk if, like, you know, elections even mattered....and junk?
Seriously, what informed person actually thinks the outcome of this farce will make one ounce of difference?
If Romeny wins, were fucked.
If Obama wins, were fucked.
So who fucking cares?
Im going to "throw away" my vote and vote for Gary Johnson. That way I have a clear conscience when the USA collapses.