Americans Modestly Less Confident Than Expected, UMich Finds

Tyler Durden's picture


In a stunning development, and likely the result of the University of Michigan no longer calling solely various number at the (212) 902-XXXX extension, one data point has come below expectations and this is with less than 2 weeks until the election: because whereas GDP was a comfortable beat courtesy of the government spending to make itself look better, today's UMichigan confidence print came at 82.6 on expectations of a 83.0 print, and just barely down from 83.1 last month. What was surprising too, is that hopium consumption, which has been off the charts recently, also moderated, with not only conditions declining modestly from 88.6 to 88.1, but expectations also down from 79.5 to 79.0. That said, and for popular media consumption, the headline will be that the final expectations print (not prelim) has been the highest since 2007. And in a sign that there is at least some coordination between the various departments of truth, 5 year inflation expectations finally rose from 2.6% to 2.7%. Recall that the whole premise behind the "improvement" in the economy is due to QEtc, which in turn implies a surge in inflation. Which explicitly means one can feel good about today, but one has to expect spiking inflation in the future. One can't have both. Today uMich finally got the memo.

UMich consumer expectations are the highest since July 2007!


and entirely disconnected from business perspectives (5 year highs for consumer versus 3 year lows for company expectations)...

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Fri, 10/26/2012 - 10:07 | 2921303 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Not according to you know who....

"U.S. consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in five years in October as Americans were more upbeat about prospects for the economy and their own finances, a survey released on Friday showed."

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 10:35 | 2921417 Stock Tips Inve...
Stock Tips Investment's picture

It seems that there is no significant change in this indicator. The situation remains more or less the same. Nor do I believe that one can speak of a resurgence of inflation. At least, what can be seen from these numbers, in U.S., there is no news.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 10:07 | 2921306 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

As long as my NetFlix monthly subscription rate does not go up, and McDonald's does not raise the price of the QuarterPounder, I am confident.  

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 10:09 | 2921314 Cursive
Cursive's picture


Garbage for the mind, trash for the stomach.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 10:13 | 2921323 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

It's actually an eighthpounder now. The quarterpounder refers to the johnny dump end of the equations. Obviously you didn't get the memo.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 10:09 | 2921310 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

Damn, the farce is strong in the markets today. 

Big Pharma looking sicklickal.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 10:15 | 2921336 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I know.  Earnings after the close got me thinking we would see 13000 again today.

I guess we have to wait till Monday.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 10:10 | 2921318 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'm surprised that the report didn't come out showing people Joyous and hopeful with this booming economy before the election. Every other phony report has been massaged to death why not this one?

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 10:15 | 2921337 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

The media is proclaiming these clouds off the coast as a "Frankenstein Storm". The damage will be beyond epic. We will be lucky to suvive. If you guys have not yet rushed to your local home depot/wal mart/supermarket to buy AS MUCH SHIT as humanly possible you better get out there. Also while you are there bang out some holiday shopping.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 10:20 | 2921357 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Lol...Krugman will certainly be happy.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 10:25 | 2921376 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

confident: in lower wages, more job loss, higher food and energy prices..and propaganda telling us all why we are so lucky to live in Obuma nation.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 10:39 | 2921371 fuu
fuu's picture

Damn you Engali.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 10:49 | 2921473 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Que? What did I do?

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 11:59 | 2921794 fuu
fuu's picture

Beat me to the Krugman joke.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 10:26 | 2921382 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture


GDP numbers suddenly caused market to reverse... so the SPX short squeeze Election Rally returns along with substantial USD selling.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 10:27 | 2921384 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So people living on food stamps using a free Obama phone think things are kinda OK, business have far less optimistic it. 


Fri, 10/26/2012 - 10:40 | 2921434 Schlomo Bergstein
Schlomo Bergstein's picture

Confidence is America's primary export.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 10:47 | 2921446 JR
JR's picture

Consumers confident of what? Higher food prices, $5 gasoline, job loss?

Here, courtesy of Anthony B. Sanders, is what consumers can expect as blasts of QE out of thin air devalue the dollar levitating prices up and up and up and up….into the stratosphere.

Reports Sanders: “food and gasoline prices have skyrocketed since December 2008," many exceeding even gold! You know, like in a 306% increase in the lowly staple food for the poor, potatoes! and a 117% increase in beef as the value of the poor man’s castle fell while he gulped a cup of $13.69-a-Lb. morning coffee before being shocked awake at the gas pump…

Here are the shocking percentage price changes from December 2008 to October 2012:

Potatoes (Lb) $0.32 to $1.30, 306%; Butter (Lb) $1.95 to $5.19, 166%; Coffee (2 Lb) $5.49 to $13.69, 149%; Gasoline (Gal) $1.61 to $3.82, 137%; Beef (Lb) $3.68 to $7.98, 117%; Milk (Gal) $2.16 to $4.59, 113%; Gold (Troy Oz) $865.00 to $1,732.75, 100%; Flour (5 Lb) $1.97 to $3.90, 98%; Rice (Lb) $1.10 to $2.00, 82%; Eggs (Doz) $1.29 to $2.19, 70%; Sugar (5 Lb) $2.68 to $3.79, 41%; Inflation (CPI less Energy & Food) $107.67 to $113.97, 6%; Housing (Case Shiller 20) $150.58 to $142.10, -6%.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 10:52 | 2921492 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

this all sounds so reminiscent of things past by proust... but honestly folks- 'by the time my past eclipses my future i'll be dead?'

since 2001... not a fucking thing has changed for the better!

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 11:40 | 2921708 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Nothing instills Consumer Confidence like rising food and gas prices.

The Confidence Meter should go right through the roof when food and gas prices double (again).

Those U of Michigan Pollsters sure have their finger on the pulse of America.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 12:25 | 2921881 JR
JR's picture

The mocking irony of the Consumer report in the face of reality reminds me of the fictional old clerk whose staple between life and starvation had been reduced to a daily boiled egg. Further devaluation of his savings was endangering even that.

“He had saved a little money. For years and years, he had believed that it would be enough to keep him in his old age. But what with the successive devaluations of the franc, he now literally had barely enough to stand off total starvation.” – Georges Simenon, The Man on the Bench (fiction), published in France in 1953.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 13:43 | 2922148 exartizo
exartizo's picture

Agreed. But I'm thinking those U of Michigan Pollsters may have their fingers stuck somewhere else.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 13:08 | 2921973 exartizo
exartizo's picture

Addictive Hopium Consumption (AHC) is very highly statistically correlated to Addictive Television Consumption (ATC) for the Typical American.

This is no doubt due to the Addictive High Drama (AHD) aspect of Television Shows and the Addictive Car Advertising (ACA), as well as the Addictive Drug Company Advertising (ADCA)... as you cannot buy the drugs without going to see a doctor... Hopium works just as well...and doesn't require a Doctor's Prescription.

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