Americans Modestly Less Confident Than Expected, UMich Finds

Tyler Durden's picture

In a stunning development, and likely the result of the University of Michigan no longer calling solely various number at the (212) 902-XXXX extension, one data point has come below expectations and this is with less than 2 weeks until the election: because whereas GDP was a comfortable beat courtesy of the government spending to make itself look better, today's UMichigan confidence print came at 82.6 on expectations of a 83.0 print, and just barely down from 83.1 last month. What was surprising too, is that hopium consumption, which has been off the charts recently, also moderated, with not only conditions declining modestly from 88.6 to 88.1, but expectations also down from 79.5 to 79.0. That said, and for popular media consumption, the headline will be that the final expectations print (not prelim) has been the highest since 2007. And in a sign that there is at least some coordination between the various departments of truth, 5 year inflation expectations finally rose from 2.6% to 2.7%. Recall that the whole premise behind the "improvement" in the economy is due to QEtc, which in turn implies a surge in inflation. Which explicitly means one can feel good about today, but one has to expect spiking inflation in the future. One can't have both. Today uMich finally got the memo.

UMich consumer expectations are the highest since July 2007!

 

and entirely disconnected from business perspectives (5 year highs for consumer versus 3 year lows for company expectations)...