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The Complete 'Advanced' Economy Sovereign Ratings Cheat-Sheet

Tyler Durden's picture





 

S&P recently acted to markedly downgrade Spain, and Moody’s has ended its recent ratings review, leaving Spain at Baa3; and while ratings could remain largely stable in the short-term (supported by OMT's promise and the possible delay of GRExit), there are a few exceptions such as France and and the UK that Citi's Rates group expect to see downgrades on in the short-term. The following table provides the full breakdown of Moody's and S&P's ratings for the advanced economies along with Citi's model views - which imply weak outlooks for most of Europe in the medium-term as Greek reality hits home.

 

and in cased you were wondering just what Spain is doing with its bank bailout plan:

 

Via Citi:

Although we expect most sovereigns will have stable ratings in the near-term, there are a few notable exceptions. We expect that Moody’s will place France on a ratings review for a possible downgrade (ie Negative Watch) in the next 2-3 quarters, largely because of the fiscal program and weak economy. Moreover, we also expect that S&P will likely place the UK on Negative Outlook in the next 2-3 quarters (in line with Moody’s Aaa Negative Outlook). We also expect that Portugal will be downgraded over the next 2-3 quarters due to continued recession plus the probable need to extend its Troika programme.

 

Over the long-term, we still believe that ultimately, it will become evident that the Greek programme remains off track and that Greece’s debt is still unsustainable. We think the likely stalemate between Greece and its international creditors will eventually lead to a withdrawal of international support leaving Grexit as potentially the only available solution for Greece.

 

Due to our longer-term view on Grexti and various sovereign-specific factors, we continue to expect a wide series of downgrades over the next 2-3 years

 


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Fri, 10/26/2012 - 19:14 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

This should be rich. Can we exclude un-dark pools?

   Oliver North, we need some war stories!  Something tells me that those "orange boxes" were purple at one time.

  Spanish Debt in all it's (can kicking) beauty!

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 22:51 | Link to Comment ACP
ACP's picture

In other news, a Bulgarian blogger reportedly bought data on 1.1 FB users for $5:

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/facebook-data-of-1-1-million-users-sold-...

Before I clicked on the headline, was so hoping it was an expose by one of the Tylers...

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 19:42 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

from "suspension of disbelief" to "ludicrous speed" to ... well, "artifice ridiculi." what is interesting...indeed the only thing that is interesting...to ponder is just how much the Fed Chairman "and his buddies" are STILL attempting to bailout the EZ. The only thing we know is that the biggest recipient of Federal Reserve largesse was Belgium of all places. Given the events of the past few years i get the feeling "once they find out what we've done arrest will seem like a good option." i'm fairly certain it does not matter who wins this election. this "gangsterism" appears to have run its course. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y11tvE6NUDk&feature=related

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 20:07 | Link to Comment hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

the next shoe to drop is the scandis..who will pull out a shocker in the next year. Citi are going to provide a forecast using the same methodology as the SRO's...not worth the candle.

belgium is also on a faster downhill slide as is the UK. history doesn't repeat, but, as the man says, it rhymes

Remember, remember the fifth of November Gunpowder, treason and plot I see no reason why gunpowder treason Should ever be forgot

 

Sat, 10/27/2012 - 05:29 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

huh? the scandinavian countries all have low debt/GDP ratios, low deficits, and the norwegian banking sector is pretty solid. the danish is struggling under a housing bubble (which is predictably being re-blown), and the swedish are owed large amounts by creditors of dubious creditworthiness (baltic nations especially).

furthermore, the danish kroner is used as a hedge against euro implosion.

so if you're going to start shorting, i'd look elsewhere.

just my 2c

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 20:50 | Link to Comment Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

We. Don't. Need. Banks.

 

Sat, 10/27/2012 - 06:23 | Link to Comment bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

On why Greece's Golden Dawn - their far right neo-Nazi party - is getting so popular there ... protecting citizens against crime by immigrants, when people feel let down by the police:

« The Athenians of Amerikis Square are in no doubt about it - Golden Dawn, the far-right nationalist party many describe as neo-fascist - is to be thanked for cleaning up their neighbourhood.

"Immigrants used to just rob you. But in recent years they were also beating you up," says Katerina, a florist who has worked on the square for nearly two decades.

"They camped on the square. They would relieve themselves in plain view. They were constantly fighting amongst themselves. I don’t want to go home every evening wondering if I’m going to survive the wait at the bus stop," she says.

Katerina narrates how Africans mugged a fellow shopkeeper two doors away while she was opening her clothing boutique one morning. Some of her elderly clients say they have been mugged after picking up their pensions at the bank.

About a year ago, people started to call members of the Golden Dawn to escort them to the bank or to break up fights among immigrants. "Things have improved a lot since then," says Katerina, who didn't wnt to use her full name. "The first phone number people call is no longer the police. It’s Golden Dawn." »

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2012/10/2012102572921214294.html

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