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Greek Deadline - Sunday Evening

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Tim Geithner's carefully scripted plan to avoid European "reality" until the US election is unraveling. While previously Greece was not supposed to be an issue until after November 6, the recent escalation with the Greek FinMin openly lying about a Troika interim bailout outcome (which may or may not happen, but only following yet another MoU which would see Greece fully transitioning to a German vassal state in exchange for what is now seen as a €30 billion shortfall over the next 4 years, and which would send Syriza soaring in the polls in the process ensuring that a Grexit is merely a matter of time) has forced a retaliation. According to the Greek press, the Troika now demands that Greece resolve its objections to labor reforms (which as reported earlier have forced the ruling coalition to split) by Sunday night, or else...

The implication, it appears, is that absent a compromise, the next Troika tranche of €31.5 billion is not coming, and Greece is out. And while the market is sanguine about this outcome, we are once again at the bargaining table, where nobody knows just who has the upper hand in Mutually Assured and quite Destructive bailout negotiations: Greece or Germany. From Kathimerini: "The government is facing a Sunday deadline for a full agreement on the package of measures that will see it cash in the next bailout tranche of 31.5 billion euros. The three-day extension it got in order to get maximum backing within the three-party coalition will be necessary as minor partner Democratic Left insists on an improvement in the terms concerning labor reforms that it staunchly opposes." Will Greece come through in the clutch? And if not, just what happens with the EURUSD on Sunday night as Greece calls the Troika's bluff? Deja vu shades of early summer, and plunging European risk come to mind...

More:

The Euro Working Group (EWG) of eurozone finance ministry officials will convene again on Monday to discuss whatever conclusions Athens has come to and prepare the blueprint that the Eurogroup of euro area finance ministers may discuss on Wednesday through a video conference that sources from Brussels say is likely to take place in order to discuss Greece.

 

The prime minister appears determined to have the measures passed immediately through Parliament, either in one or in two draft laws, ordering on Thursday the preparation of the bills required.

 

At the same time there are also disagreements within PASOK, the other minor coalition partner, as a number of deputies are threatening to vote against a Finance Ministry measure regarding privatizations.

 


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Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:04 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

This time they mean it.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:05 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

It's the SuperMega deadline.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:09 | Link to Comment UGrev
UGrev's picture

at 11:59 they'll kick the can.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:17 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Then they'll sign the alliance with Iceland.......come get some Amigos.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:31 | Link to Comment TIMBEEER
TIMBEEER's picture

Iceland has a bad reputation of NOT paying other peoples bills.. they must be anti-social people.. or smth..

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:43 | Link to Comment Badabing
Badabing's picture

Time to reboot and let the BANKS take it in the ass!

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:49 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Be careful....that Muppet looks like a terrorist.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 10:00 | Link to Comment gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

The infamous... Triple dog dare!

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 09:25 | Link to Comment Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

without KY jelly

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 10:17 | Link to Comment Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

Another deadline where nothing will happen ,"whatever".

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:21 | Link to Comment Popo
Popo's picture

Everyone in the world knows that the world is on life-support until November 6th.  After which, the world's collective shit is expected to vaporize on the fan-blades.   The problem of course, is that any investor with a clue is going to front-run that expectation next week and get in early on whatever position they can.

Markets are slippery beasts.  The powers-that-be would love to believe they have a handle on things until the circus tent comes down on Nov 6th... but as George Bush learned the hard way, any expected trade is going to be front-run.   The only reason it hasn't been front-run already is that the race is too close to call.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:22 | Link to Comment UGrev
UGrev's picture

Well, when you're voting for the same horse... 

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:45 | Link to Comment Atlasshruggedme
Atlasshruggedme's picture

Yes, they hope to kick the can again. I say, let it drop... I don't have alll my gold/silver/lead/brass/wheat and beans read... But I am 100000% more ahead then most people that prep... Bring it ON!

 

Quick Bio: I am 27, my age group has not had the chances to get ahead like the people currently in their 30's and older. My prep group all fit, smart, educated and trained are waiting for the reset. At this point we will be able to start something new and see the real fruits of our labors that have been supresed from the generations before us.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:50 | Link to Comment UGrev
UGrev's picture

Opsec dude.. opsec.. 

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 09:57 | Link to Comment gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

They never learn...

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:09 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

This is double-top-secret probation.

I'm scared, guys. Someone please comfort me.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:09 | Link to Comment THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

Imagine-- we've got front row seats. Pay close attention; we'll be trying to explain this for centuries.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 09:03 | Link to Comment sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

They are on double secret probation!!!!!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0cF2piwjYQ

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:07 | Link to Comment slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

CRIPLE FIGHT!!!

 

May the farce be with you...

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:11 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

speaking of reality, both AMZN and AAPL are now up in pre-hour trading

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:18 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

unfuckingbelievable.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:38 | Link to Comment UGrev
UGrev's picture

why? I just bought something from amazon this morning..  I saved the day!!!

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:42 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

AMZN/AAPL: all those well-calculated earnings STRADDLES/STRANGLES on the W options UP IN SMOKE!  LOL.  

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:48 | Link to Comment a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

I thought about playing AAPL with some puts because AAPL earnings have been very lucrative for me in the past, but I figured even if they shit the bed something crazy would happen and they would get bailed out, only to see a decline in stock price weeks later.  Turns out I was right and saved myself some grief.  I guess they engineered it to get a lot of other people, though.  Unfuckingbelievable.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 10:25 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

and the prem's could have got you 1:1 into VHC

jmo

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:11 | Link to Comment Louie the Dog
Louie the Dog's picture

"Hey dad, can I have $10?"

"Mow the lawn first"

"Fuck you old man"

"Hey dad, can I have $10?"

 

 

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:24 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

"Hey Germany, can I have $39,000,000,000?"

"Make some labor reforms first"

"That is inhumane"

"Dann Nein"

"Then we default on the bonds your banks bought"

 

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:29 | Link to Comment TIMBEEER
TIMBEEER's picture

- Hello Hans, can I have 100€?

- Do some austerity first, Giorgos!

- Fuck you Hans!

- Hey Hans, can I have 200 €?

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:11 | Link to Comment Eugend66
Eugend66's picture

Jeebus, give them greek commoners a break. No other nation "sniffed" so much tear-gas this year. Maybe voting realy does`nt change things and they are learning.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:30 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Jeebus, give them greek commoners a break.

 

Jeebus....what do you think we've been doing for the last couple years? The commoners can stay....but the politicians and bankers have got to go.

 

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 10:39 | Link to Comment JimBowie1958
JimBowie1958's picture

And austerity really doesnt work any fucking way.

They need to grow the consumer market, the tourism, the technological research, etc and you dont do that wityh bean-counter strategies of gradual diminishment of everyone.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:13 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"Greece was not supposed to be an issue until after November 6"

So voter support in the US is contingent to the Prez/Timmah "fixing" Greece/Europe and so keeping Wall Street happy? I understand this is an argument that many believe, but is it really so? Honest question, I watch only 5 minutes of CNBC per year.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:26 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I watch only 5 minutes of CNBC per year.

 

If you spent less on the EU pay per view...you could afford to watch CNBC a little more. Not that it's much better...but it does have Maria. She's one hot money hunny.

 

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:41 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

For an old continental european redneck Cold Warrior anti-communist classical-liberal like me it's a bit strange to live now in a world where the Russian RT is less painful to watch than the American CNBC.

By the way, there is no such thing as an "EU pay per view". Our taxes and our militaries are a national matter, and so are the national broadcast services. 27 "Small Birds" instead of one "Big Bird".

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:51 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

...it's a bit strange to live now in a world where the Russian RT is less painful to watch than the American CNBC.

 

Because candy tastes good?

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:55 | Link to Comment fijisailor
fijisailor's picture

Yea isn't that ironic that there is more truth in media coming out of Russia these days?

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:31 | Link to Comment eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

The thesis is that if Greece is gone, the stock markets around the world will crash, include the American ones. The support for Obummer will presumably dive with the stock markets. Obummer doesn't care whether Greece is fixed. He just doesn't want the stock markets to crash. 

Honestly, I don't think Greece is an issue. The Troika doesn't have the guts to stop funding Greece. Merkel also has an election after all. 

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:14 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Add this to a 100 year storm hitting mid week. Maybe it's time for a deep out of the money put on the weeklies? Nah, I'm sure it's priced in.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:27 | Link to Comment machineh
machineh's picture

Don't worry, we get one of those 100-year storms every year. Some years two of them ...

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:45 | Link to Comment UGrev
UGrev's picture

you know what this means right? They're going to come up with bullshit scheme like "Storm Credits" or some silly shit because cow's fart too much causing 100 year storms 100x more than normal.. sometimes 200x more than normal. 

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:54 | Link to Comment a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

Like talking about the weather?  Then you'll love playing the weather in the stock market with my new triple-levered Storm ETF (Ticker symbol SOL).  Contact your investment advisor today*!

 

*On a long enough timeline, this 3x ETF will go to zero.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 09:43 | Link to Comment UGrev
UGrev's picture

BRILLIANT!!!

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 12:05 | Link to Comment John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

I guess you'll do it all using daily weather options which have to be rolled everyday?

Damn that daily compounding slippage is tough on "investors".

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:14 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

I realize this isn't the time or place - but I just read what happened to the Krim family.  My heart goes out to them in what is an unimaginable horror to befall anyone.

http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/mass-stabbing-west-side-article-1.11...

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:22 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

That is horrible. From the news standpoint the nanny has already been convicted by every newspaper in NY. I'm not saying she did not do it but according to the media there is absoultely no need to conduct an investigation.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:39 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Granted they do make the assumption that the Nanny went insane, opposed to being attacked by an outsider...

Considering the number of cameras likely in a building like that - we'll probably know soon enough if anyone entered the apartment prior to the killings.

Either way - to lose your babies like that and to know they died horribly has got to break their parents mentally.

I wish I had not read the article.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:49 | Link to Comment UGrev
UGrev's picture

Something doesn't seem right with this one.. 

Other than the fact that my heart is broken over the death of the chidren. Having 2 myself.. I can't imagine what something like that can do to you. ...Other than that.. there seems to be something out of place here.. 

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:54 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Like both of you said, it's pointless to the parents. The kids are gone. It's unimaginable. It's those stories that scare the shit out of me 100x more than anything else.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:57 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

If she snapped - I've gotta wonder why. By the account given, she had a good relationship with the family and a good job.  The father is a general manager at CNBC, maybe he directly or indirectly pissed someone off...

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 09:02 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

If the attack was done by someone else the cameras will be found to be mysteriously disabled. Ordinary craziness happens though even in a paranoid world.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 09:17 | Link to Comment CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

You wish you hadn't read the article - but you purposely come in off-topic to encourage the rest of us to read it? Thanks.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 09:27 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Just because I have delicate sensibilities doesn't mean everyone does. Horrible things happen to children everyday - this one just pulled at my heartstrings for whatever reason. I simply provided the link so people knew what I was talking about.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:20 | Link to Comment Hayek FA
Hayek FA's picture

With all the suspense of a Disney movie

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:21 | Link to Comment PUD
PUD's picture

Trokia dooom! or we will taunt you a second time

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:23 | Link to Comment TIMBEEER
TIMBEEER's picture

"German vassal state" Yeah, sure, Tyler. All the Germans want is to have nothing to do with Greece. And, the Greeks have a choice. Pay your bills, pay your taxes - or become a vasal "state" of the EU, Goldman Sacks, Turkey or .. whatever.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment supafuckinmingster
supafuckinmingster's picture

Timbeeer: ""German vassal state" Yeah, sure, Tyler. All the Germans want is to have nothing to do with Greece. And, the Greeks have a choice. Pay your bills, pay your taxes - or become a vasal "state" of the EU, Goldman Sacks, Turkey or .. whatever."

 

Germans have a choice too. They could vote for anti-austerity, anti-bailout politicians. But they don't, they keep voting in euro fanatics like Kohl and Merkel so I hope the German people enjoy paying for the Southern half of Europe for the nex 30 years or more because that's what the pols that they freely voted in have in store for them.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 10:39 | Link to Comment TIMBEEER
TIMBEEER's picture

+1 Very most correct.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:27 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"Greece fully transitioning to a German vassal state"

Greece, Greece, let me see: Vassal state of the Turk Empire, then liberated and friend of the UK, BFF of Russia (this love story will never end), got a Bavarian King so that Russia and the British Empire would not fight over this friendship (the Greek flag is still an homage to the Bavarian colours). Then military dictatorship. 1974 Revolution, again friend of the UK and NATO member...

I disagree with this "vassal state" thing, but even if it was so, would this not be a repetition of history?

Cui bono? Who is against Greece defaulting? I was reading here that the global-monster-called Deutsche Bank is deep in it but they themselves talk about "negligible exposure".

It all goes back to derivatives, eh? And there are only 5 mega-corporations-with-a-banking-licence in this world for which the derivatives monstrosity is truly transparent (because they own/issue 80% of them).

But of course it's easier to say that it's all the EUR's fault.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:34 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

But of course it's easier to say that it's all the EUR's fault.

 

All they did was take the free money....why should they get all the blame? Turns out drug dealers don't have your best interests at heart. They'll still sell you as much of that crap as you want.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 10:01 | Link to Comment Gouranga
Gouranga's picture

the Greek flag is still an homage to the Bavarian colours

The colours (blue and white) were chosen before Greece was free from Ottoman rule and before Othonas came. Their significance has nothing to do with Bavaria.

What you meant to say was that the shade of blue used, later on changed to closer resemble that of Bavarian blue ... quite a big difference!

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 11:10 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

+1, thanks. was not aware of this shade of blue change

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:35 | Link to Comment northerngirl
northerngirl's picture

All sides will come together and the problem will be solved until the next time.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:43 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Greece, again.  How long has this clown show been going on?  3 years?  4 years?   

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 08:50 | Link to Comment Professor Fate
Professor Fate's picture

So I guess Sunday night I'll be flipping the stations between the San Fran / Arizona game and "Housewives of Athens"?  Won't somebody finally pull the plug on this sitcom?

"Press the Button, Max"

Fate the Magnificent

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 09:18 | Link to Comment EyesWise Shut
EyesWise Shut's picture

I believe a GREXIT will be risk-on as that recurring problem will be finally solved - and for Spain and Italy, you've got the OMT. Everything is in place now.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 09:23 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

What's funny is that Greece has only a GDP of 300 billion. Spain is much bigger (5 times) and in as much, if not more trouble.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 09:35 | Link to Comment alfred b.
alfred b.'s picture

 

  Why not cut to the chase.   Just let Timmah write them a cheque...eventually, somewhere down the line, it will come to that anyway!

 

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 09:56 | Link to Comment vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

"or else"?...."or else"???

 

We all know that mysterious money will arrive just in time (not printed, wink wink).

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 10:15 | Link to Comment UsdJpytrader
UsdJpytrader's picture

Ohi Day (also spelled Ochi DayGreek???????? ??? «'???» Epeteios tou "'Ohi", Anniversary of the "No") is celebrated throughoutGreeceCyprus and the Greek communities around the world on October 28 each year, to commemorate the rejection by Greek dictator Ioannis Metaxas (in power from August 4, 1936, until January 29, 1941) of the ultimatum made by Italian dictator Benito Mussolini on October 28, 1940.

Maybe the Greeks are stupid enough to say no again this weekend? Worth a punt! 

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 10:32 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

People, why is this still going on?

There is no mechanism in the treaty for any country to leave.  There is no mechanism for forcing any country out.

AND THERE IS NOTHING FOR GREECE TO GAIN BY LEAVING.  There is no bankruptcy court.  Greece can't default because the creditors won't acknowledge the default and will just continue to compound the debt and then confiscate Greek assets whenever they leave Greece soil.

Iceland is not a precedent; they didn't have an 8% of GDP government deficit.  When you are running that sort of deficit, you can't default because no one will lend you that 8%.  And no, you can't have a central bank print it BECAUSE YOU HAVE TO PAY FOR OIL IMPORTS AND THE OIL PRODUCER WON'T TAKE DRACHMAs.

Greece isn't leaving the Euro.  They have nowhere to go if they did.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 11:43 | Link to Comment taraxias
taraxias's picture

Okay, fuck it, when are you going to stop spewing this shit?

The oil producer would be more than happy to send oil for not only drachmas but simply IOUs. They have in the past and they will again in the future.

And if Greece backs its drachmas with Aegean oil and gas finds (since I have no idea if their gold still exists), they'll not only get oil but spare cash to boot.

Countries default on debt written in their own law all the time and there is shit the creditors can do about it but line up for the pleasure to do it all over again.

Grow the fuck up.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 11:17 | Link to Comment Dareconomics
Dareconomics's picture

I try not to make forecasts in my writings. Based on economic conditions and politics, I prefer to create several possible scenarios and maybe engage in some handicapping., but the current Mexican standoff occurring between Greece and the troika is just too juicy for me to resist.

These are the facts controlling each side's position. Greece cannot be allowed to fail, because it will cause a massive market panic that will make Lehman Brother's failure look like a Sunday picnic in Central  Park. The politicians will catch all of the blame for this and lose their jobs in the next election.

Greece will default on its obligations if it does not receive the next tranche of loans in November. The country will neither have the money to maintain government spending nor to pay off loans maturing later in the month. If the politicians fail to reach a compromise that releases the loans, then the Greek government will fall, and the current governing coalition members will be exposed in new elections.

Merkel needs the perception that she is being tough on the periphery in exchange for Germany money. German voters are bailout weary, and the politicians are in campaign mode. She will lose votes if she is not being tough on Greece.

The Greek voters resent being a ward of the troika and are tired of being asked for more and more cuts causing nothing but pain as far as they can see. The politicians in the junior coalition parties are playing to this resentment and need to obtain something for their efforts.

This is the status quo between Greece and the troika. Now, they are playing brinkmanship politics, but this is not the first time. The best example of the current situation is the negotiations that took place before the March 2012 bailout. That crisis was resolved, and the end of the world was avoided.

The current standoff will be resolved, too, because the costs of not resolving it are too high. The resolution pattern will be similar to the one from March. Numbers will be fudged, and a face-saving compromise will be agreed to just in time for Greece to receive the money it needs.

If either party could improve its position by maintaining its current position, I would predict otherwise, but this is not the case. If Greece doesn't receive the loans, it will go bust, and both sides will suffer greatly. Whatever day the Greek government runs out of money, look for a compromise the day before. 

dareconomics.wordpress.com

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 12:24 | Link to Comment John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

Your argument is too complex and convoluted.  If Greece doesn't receive its next ~31B EU tranche/welfare payment, it will simply have to live within its means-just like if the debt ceiling isn't increased the US government has to live within its means.  Why is this simple concept so difficult to grasp and implement?  It applies to individuals, companies, and countries.

And by the way, all of Greece's debt is effectively already in complete default and worthless-no one believes the GGB bonds will ever be redeemed upon maturity.  When a country such as Greece operates its rail system with expenditures of $400M EU and revenues of $100M EU/year its time for bankruptcy, privitivation and  serious labor reform.  That's the only way Greece will ever have access to the capital markets again.  Its the right thing to do.  If you're spending more than you earn the solution isn't more loans, its SPEND LESS and work harder!  Save and be productive.  However, this isn't exactly built into the southern EU culture.  That's why a break up of this silly monetary union is required.  Its a failed experiment.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 12:07 | Link to Comment common_sense
common_sense's picture

Lehman was a big surprise for Europe, so it's normal a HUGE surprise coming from Europe...

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 23:18 | Link to Comment Azwethinkweiz
Azwethinkweiz's picture

Is this why the markets were closed today and will be closed tomorrow...and maybe indefinitely after Sandy douches her va-jay-jay?

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