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In Advance Of Frankenstorm Sandy, NYC Suspending All Transit Services At 7:00 PM Sunday Through Wednesday

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It seems like it was only yesterday that the panic ahead of Hurricane Irene, which was a light breeze by the time it hit NYC, was being spread by various government agencies and every possible media. It is deja vu time, and moments ago, in order to be "fully prepared" ahead of Frankenstorm Sandy, NY governor Cuomo just announced that at 7:00 pm tonight, the New York Metropolitan Transit Authority, i..e., subways, buses and trains, is suspending all service at 7:00 pm (and 1,100 national guards are being activated) and will be halted until Wednesday at the earliest. This also means that tomorrow Wall Street will be a complete ghost town as everyone takes two days off, and the algos will be the only ones in charge (more or less as usual).

And an update on what is actually happening from the Wunderground blog:

Sandy's tropical storm-force winds now extend 450 nautical miles from the center on the northeast side of the hurricane. This is a very, very large storm, and I suspect the #1 spot (Olga of 2001) is in jeopardy, as well.

Top 12 Largest Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

These sizes were determined using the Extended Best Track dataset (Demuth et. al 2006).

Name, Year: Radius of tropical storm-force winds (nautical miles)

1. Olga, 2001: 600
2. Lili, 1996, 450
2. Sandy, 2012: 450
3. Tanya 1995: 400
3. Irene 1999: 400
3. Igor, 2010: 400
4. Wilma, 2005: 375
5. Felix, 1995: 360
5. Michael, 2000 360
5. Irene, 2005: 360
5. Irene, 2005 360
5. Florence, 2006: 360


High resolution MODIS visible satellite image of Hurricane Sandy on October 27, 2012.

 

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Sun, 10/28/2012 - 10:24 | 2925095 vortmax
vortmax's picture

The model projections for this thing are just downright scary--coupled with the MSM's bungling of the Irene situation last year, I'm willing to bet cry-wolf syndrome will claim a fair number of victims this time around.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 10:35 | 2925117 duo
duo's picture

Each run is scarier than the one before it.  The winds to the north of the storm (at 1000 ft) could be 80 MPH or higher, per the NAM model.

As the storm moves inland the winds will be blowing the whole length of Lake Michigan right into Chicago and Gary.

Let's hope those GE nuclear reactors have plenty of fuel for the back-up generators.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 10:57 | 2925154 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

How are the algos going to get to work if the trains & busses aren't running?...

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:18 | 2925188 CPL
CPL's picture

It's okay.

Follow Christie he knows where the food is.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:45 | 2925245 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

I guess I'll have to ride my bike to Jersey if I want a big gulp.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:45 | 2925247 Dalago
Dalago's picture

The State and MTA would love to declare everyday a "state of emergency."  They get federal money when they do this.  MTA would love to shut down the entire system at the slightest sign of a fart wind to close their $2 billion pension liability.

 

Get money and shut down services.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 13:08 | 2925423 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Declare emergency, get bacon.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:45 | 2925248 markar
markar's picture

+10000 calories

Funny comment of the week

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:47 | 2925253 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

And in the event you need to go Donner party as a last resort, it's not a bad idea to have him around anyway. 

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:55 | 2925276 CPL
CPL's picture

He's got a gammy leg.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:34 | 2925220 old naughty
old naughty's picture

Last time I heard, they burrowed through fibre optics at light speed. 

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:34 | 2925224 Jani
Jani's picture

+1 --- HAHA -- that really made me laugh out loud.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:40 | 2925234 Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

Kevin Henry, you're our only hope.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 12:55 | 2925404 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

Monday is Skynets' big chance.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:42 | 2925239 impermanence
impermanence's picture

Sounds like a martial law drill.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 10:24 | 2925097 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

That is a shit ton of airborne water.  It's gonna be a big rain.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 10:34 | 2925116 Mae Kadoodie
Mae Kadoodie's picture

If sea water gets into the subway system this will corrode the wiring.  Rust will be a big issue.  Can you imagine if a transportation system that supports 8 million were to ground to a halt for an extended period?  

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 10:49 | 2925143 CPL
CPL's picture

NYC is one of the biggest, most awesome machines on the planet.  It's a phenomnal place full of trillions of moving parts including the people.

 

If it were a nice little sport car, you'd want to put a tarp over it to protect it from the weather.  Today is meterologist paradise!!  There are some really interesting things happening.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:11 | 2925164 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Barkeep, I'll have what the gentleman on the floor was having.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:34 | 2925222 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

+1

You're not drunk if you can lie on the floor without holding on.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:48 | 2925256 CPL
CPL's picture

An irishman is never drunk enough as long as they can hold onto a blade of grass and not fall off the earth.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:12 | 2925178 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Mayor Bloomberg sucks.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:40 | 2925237 Umh
Umh's picture

So; to keep the subway from halting they halt it. Must make sense to someone.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:47 | 2925254 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Don't you mean 8 million people that support a transportation system?

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:53 | 2925270 CPL
CPL's picture

I think you are under appreciating that system.  There are 8 million on that tiny island along with the 30 million surrounding the island providing services to it.  NYC has a bigger, in real net terms, population than all of Canada.  There is no city better engineered from the foundation and up.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llEpW8XxUp8

 

It might be corrupt and taken lumps, but nobody can overlook the sheer size of it as a project.  It's amazing from an engineering perspective.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 13:18 | 2925437 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

It is also quite a dump when there are no Sanitation Engineering services for three days............

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 16:36 | 2925827 CPL
CPL's picture

Yup.  I found the constant smell of garbage and shit around the same as Paris.  Do not miss working downtown at all.  Filtered air in the offices or the "fresh" air at lunch.  I couldn't begin to imagine how bad it would smell.

 

Good luck to all in the path. 

Stay safe and I hope to chat with you all again.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 18:48 | 2926063 Captain Planet
Captain Planet's picture

Correction CPL: there are 8 million people across the 5 boroughs. There are at most 2.5 million residents of Manhattan. 

the 30 million person area includes all of long island, much of northern NJ, Westchester and south western Connecticut. Parts of PA and upstate NY counties are included in that number.

That being said, I reckon 20 million plus people will be without power at some point across the eastern seaboard by Tuesday morning. The number could reach 40 million if the snow fucks up Appalachia and Ontario.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 10:25 | 2925098 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

"History shows again and again how nature points up the folly of man
Godzilla!" - Blue Oyster Cult

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 10:30 | 2925108 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Great opportunity for a martial law test run.. practice run?..... Maybe more of a Defcon like step up in force of an already existing martial law.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 10:52 | 2925147 flapdoodle
flapdoodle's picture

The big question: will HAARP be able to save the Obama presidency??

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:19 | 2925190 Manolo
Manolo's picture

;))  Still working on that model....tough One, had some glitches lately...

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 13:31 | 2925462 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Nothing can save the Obama Presidency, whether he gets re-elected or not.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:43 | 2925240 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

I think this time things may get out of hand. Lots of folks are probably aleardy putting on their looting shoes. And Bloomies army has probably already got itchy trigger fingers. Not a good combo.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 13:32 | 2925463 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Can't let 450 million rounds of ammo go to waste.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 16:39 | 2925832 CPL
CPL's picture

It still hasn't been delivered.  Bullets aren't made in the us, packaged yes, India and Pakistan are the hub for that.  They have a terrible shortage of coal, diesel, everything...ORI has discussed it a couple of times.  Anycase, someone answered the RFP, but since lower bidder wins...well...a lot of things aren't coming.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 10:32 | 2925114 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Thankfully our "Patriotic HFT programs" will show up regardless...

 

Rain or shine, snow or sleet, we deliver your market!

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 10:43 | 2925131 PrintingPress
PrintingPress's picture

Until the power goes off. 

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:09 | 2925170 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

or the market goes down.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:09 | 2925172 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

What if only the power to view them goes off yet they are still trading with each other in a true dark shadow pool? What will happen after two days of out of control skynet trading? Dow 6million? Nasdaq at 45?

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 19:08 | 2926108 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Lighten up into the Dow 6M rally.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 16:43 | 2925842 CPL
CPL's picture

Correct.

 

Can I have massive underlying electrical infrastructure problems, cascading failures and nuclear plant age/maintenance for 200 Alex.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 10:38 | 2925122 koaj
koaj's picture

if ou have FB, please follow:

 

http://www.facebook.com/easternpaweatherauthority?fref=ts

 

http://www.facebook.com/JerseyShoreHurricaneNews?ref=ts&fref=ts

 

http://www.facebook.com/bobweatherman.burger?ref=ts&fref=ts

 

not plugging...all in NJ, on the shore or in eastern PA...very good sources for models, updates, etc

 

be safe all...scary stuff

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 13:09 | 2925424 mkhs
mkhs's picture

Who are you and what is this facebook?

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 10:44 | 2925135 machineh
machineh's picture

Kurgman says, "Help Sandy help you -- smash some windows before it gets here!"

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 10:45 | 2925136 PUD
PUD's picture

5' of snow predicted in Virginia and W.Virginia....unreal

I'm on Cape Cod and this morning the tide at the harbor was nearly to the brim with only a 20kt East wind

Tomorrow it will be moon tide with a whole day of 70kt winds

I predict many of the beach front roads and homes will not be there Tuesday

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 10:52 | 2925146 CPL
CPL's picture

Holy crap.  Build a massive snow fort, take pictures and submit it.

 

http://artofmanliness.com/2010/12/09/how-to-build-an-impenetrable-snow-fort/

 

Build it, and they will come.  Tell the girls it's your fort and they aren't invited.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 13:52 | 2925494 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

When the frost is on the pumpkin . . .

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 20:25 | 2926282 JethroBodien
JethroBodien's picture

How at risk are the Hamptons?  This is coming from someone who is not familiar with the area.

 

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:30 | 2925215 samsara
samsara's picture

Pud,

Could you continue to post on this story with what you see thru next wednesday ??

Would love ZH posters who live up on the east coast post of what they are seeing in their community.

I have a relative who lives between Mystic Ct. and Rhode Island on the water. Might be a tough go.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:49 | 2925258 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

Just a few miles inland of Longbranch/Monmouth bch myself

A good chance Seabright will be missing come Wednesday

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:57 | 2925283 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

Surf Taco rules!

Good luck out there.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:53 | 2925269 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

@ PUD

When/where did you see "Five Feet"?

Sandy's snows
You can add heavy snow to the list of weather frights coming for the Eastern U.S. from Sandy. A WInter Storm Watch is posted for much of southeastern West Virginia for Sunday night through Monday, when 2 - 6 inches of wet, heavy snow is expected to fall at elevations below 2000 feet. At higher elevation above 3,000 feet, 1 - 2 feet of snow is possible. With high wind gusts of 35 - 45 mph and many trees still in leaf, the affected area can expect plenty of tree damage and power outages. Lesser snows are expected in the mountains of Virginia, Tennessee, and North Carolina.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:03 | 2925160 Incubus
Incubus's picture

I think we'll see larger storms as the norm as the ice sheets continue to melt away. 

Gotta love America.  Even our storms are fat as fuck.

 

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:04 | 2925162 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

Anyone else taking notice of more people referring to Sandy as a cyclone? What's next, yuan instead of dollars? Meters instead of yards? Start redrawing the football fields...Oh wait which sport is that now?

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:35 | 2925225 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Sandy is strictly speaking a hurricane for not much longer... Extra-tropical cyclone will be the correct nomenclature...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extratropical_cyclone

And you thought it was some kind of liberal conspiracy no doubt....

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:47 | 2925252 Umh
Umh's picture

The meteorologist usually avoid the cyclone and cyclonic words because they confuse people who think they mean tornado.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:51 | 2925264 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Not to mention those in Mass who think it is either a vacuum cleaner or beer chugging contest.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 20:44 | 2926340 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

I call BS with your johnny come lately Weather 2.0 shop talk - just like all those new nerdy stats in baseball

 

hogwash!!!

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:06 | 2925166 ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

Hurricane Floyd kicked Northern NJ's butt on September 15, 1999 but not listed here. GS Plaza and telephone switching stations were submergeed in Saddle Brook.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:11 | 2925174 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Ugly comparison here, I suspect.

Anyone know anything about the '38 "Long Island Express" hurricane?

Sandy should have sustained winds at hurricane force, 75 - 80 mph, at landfall. Sandy's central pressure is expected to drop from its current 951 mb to 945 - 950 mb at landfall Monday night. A pressure this low is extremely rare; according to wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt, the lowest pressure ever measured anywhere in the U.S. north of Cape Hatteras, NC, is 946 mb (27.94") measured at the Bellport Coast Guard Station on Long Island, NY on September 21, 1938 during the great "Long Island Express" hurricane. The latest set of 00Z (8 pm EDT) and 06Z (2 am EDT) computer model runs are in agreement that Sandy will make landfall between 10 pm Monday night and 4 am Tuesday morning in New Jersey.

More here: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:23 | 2925198 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Not good...

destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.6 on a scale of 0 to 6. However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was exceptionally high: 5.7 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed between 1969 - 2005, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew.

...REALLY not good.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:52 | 2925266 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Camille was pretty bad. This is still a Cat 1 all those others Cat 5's. Andrew was pretty tightly packed...JUST missed Miami actually. Better to be safe than sorry of course...

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 12:10 | 2925310 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

DV, not taking this storm seriously would be foolhardy, IMO.

"This is still a Cat 1 all those others Cat 5's"

Don't be complacent due to a "number". Categories of 'canes only connote wind velocity(I'm pretty sure), and do not directly indicate DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL.

Coastal areas face record STORM SURGE, the most dangerous aspect for lowlands. As others have mentioned, we can probably expect quite a few missing homes and roads.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:52 | 2925267 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Ask Katy Hepburn.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:10 | 2925175 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

..................STOP CHEMTRAIL SPRAYING.......................

Fuck you's chemical spraying terrorist.

Even blessed by our goverments....

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:14 | 2925180 mrdenis
mrdenis's picture

I live at the Jersey shore ,As soon as this flattens my home ,I'll be marching into town Hall and demand a reassesment or revaluation at best .....I guess it took a storm to lower property taxes something no Politician  has ever done .

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:16 | 2925183 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

There's already people being flooded :

There is coastal flooding already here in south Wantagh!!!!!! I would say at least moderate because its on the road!!! That really really does not bowed well for later!!! Im at my parents house 3 blocks from the canal we have never flooded (not even in 92) but i think we at least see water around here which is sooooo unreal! 

My sister in Babylon who lives on a canal just off the bay is reporting that this morning's high tide was already coming over the dock. We're going to head down there now and move stuff off of her first floor.

Waves forecast, already some buoys reporting 28' waves near the center of Sandy-D

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:17 | 2925186 sandhillexit
sandhillexit's picture

NYC will survive a big wind/rain. Biggest risk is accidents from trying to remember how to turn on the stove when all the restaurants are closed.  Mostly just a pleasant exercise in actually talking to the neighbors.  NJ and all those killer trees, has the real problem.  NJ peeps took a week to make it back in after Irene.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:18 | 2925187 whoopsing
whoopsing's picture

The tides on the south shore of long Island are way high this morning, and fire island is getting chewed up by the sea...otherwise very pleasent with a nice westerly breeze

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:19 | 2925189 Itch
Itch's picture

Hairy, very hairy indeed. Personally, if i was staying around i would tie myself to something in the basement, heh. Good luck with it.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:24 | 2925200 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

NYC Weed delivery services are going to be very very busy for the next 12 hours.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:26 | 2925206 CunnyFunt
CunnyFunt's picture

This storm might help solve the problem of which trees to cut down for firewood. Hopefully I won't have to cut up the new roof over the back porch after it lands in the neighbors property.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:26 | 2925207 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

Wait........so THIS will be the "hurricane of the century", what will we call the next one, that will happen within 3-5 years????

So 1/3 of the US population lives on a 650 mile stretch of coastline, within 50 miles of the shore!!!! Holy Shit, I hope everyone's got plenty of stored food, fuel, and generators?????? Ohhh but that would make you a crazy prepper right???? Good Luck out there!!!

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:55 | 2925277 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

As the rain poors down and the wind howls, Wall Street will be sequestered by weather :

LET THE NO VOLUME MACHINE RAMP BEGIN!

Perfect.

Stay dry.

 

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 12:15 | 2925326 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Links for Sandy
To find out if you need to evacuate, please contact your local emergency management office. They will have the latest information. People living in New York City can find their evacuation zone here or use this map. FEMA has information on preparing for hurricanes.

People with disabilities and caregivers seeking information on accessible shelter and transportation can contact portlight.org

Corolla, NC webcam

Atlantic City beach cam

Statue of Liberty cam

An impressive 1-minute resolution satellite loop of Sandy today is at the CSU RAMMB website.

This impressive 1-min GOES loop beginning at dawn Saturday shows Sandy's heavy thunderstorms fighting against high wind shear, and the tilt of the vortex to the northeast with height.

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Late Season Tropical Storms that have affected the U.S. north of Hatteras. He also has a post, Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.

3-D "fly-around: of the rain towers of Sandy

Hurricane Sandy info from NASA.

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook for New York City.

Climate Central has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five feet in elevation.

 

ALL ABOVE VIA: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 17:51 | 2925968 Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture

 

Thanx for the linkies...and now to prepare the popcorn. Aloha.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 12:42 | 2925373 nah
nah's picture

send the patriots to m'fuckin london boi

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 13:13 | 2925432 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

This does not sound so good. I wonder if the damage and loss of life will be greater than that of Katrina. I understand that the calls for damage from Irene did not happen. I have read far too many posts on the comments section that minimize the dangers of this SYSTEM. The capitalization of the word as well as the following is for EMPHASIS.

I am concerned that we will not ever hear from the contributors of such posts again. I guess that is Darwinism at work.

This is NOT just a Hurricaine. It is a Hurricaine which is colliding with anther strong Arctic Low Pressure system. That will provide for some uncharecteristic precipitation that will lead to CATASTROPHIC FLOODING. Most are unaware that Hurricaine winds are not the leading cause of mortality. The main cause of your DEATH is by drowning in flood waters. This is unlike a Tornado yet Hurricaines also spawn Tornadoes.

Get a clue. You are in for a wild ride. It will kill off a bunch of Obama support. I guess that there is a Silver Lining after all.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 13:50 | 2925482 tyrone
tyrone's picture

Relax. It is barely a Category1 and as soon as it makes landfall, it will drop off to just a storm, squall or depression. Stay away from low water areas, shorelines, docksides. Make a pot of chili or soup, some coffee and kick back with the Sunday Times.

I grew up along the Gulf Coast and lived thru Cat-5s like Gilbert, Carla, Rita, and many other Cat-2s, Cat-3s that I forgot their names and their devastation soon passed. Upper East Coast storms are NOTHING like the big ones in the Gulf or the Pacific typhoons.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 17:23 | 2925934 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Trolling are we?

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 23:30 | 2926817 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

what a bunch of pussies. when i was young i walked to school both ways (uphill) through the hurricaine.

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