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Citi On The Retail Sales Impact Of Hurricane Sandy

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Via Citi:

How Much is Hurricane Sandy Shoplifting Retail Sales?

Alert: 70mph Winds! & We Calculate Comp Headwind of ~(2)%

We’re Thinking About Specialty Retail Softlines & Luxury Shopping and Also Getting Ready for a Massive Frankenstorm — Hurricane Sandy is expected to make landfall Central/Southern NJ Monday PM & impact expected to range from Mid-Atlantic to Southern New England. Flooding/Damaging wind gusts expected New Jersey, NYC, Long Island, Delmarva, Philadelphia, Boston, Washington DC and could adversely impact 60mm people. Airports adversely impacted: Washington D.C., Philadelphia, New York, and Boston.

What’s the Retail Sales Impact? Expect a (2)-(3)% Hit to Sales in Retail Calendar’s November, Probably Slightly Less Bad Than Feared — Hurricane Sandy will negatively impact traffic and retail sales in the retail calendar’s November Week 1. Week 1 is historically ~22.4% of Nov’s sales and we estimate traffic could be down ~40% for the week in negatively impacted areas. We calculate that Sandy could negatively impact November monthly comps by (2)-(3)% based on 22% (Wk 1 mix of month) * -40% (Citi traffic/comp headwind assumption) * 24% mix (average mix of stores impacted). A negative impact of (2)-(3)% in November would yield a negative quarterly impact of ~(1)-(2)%.

Our Retailers Have 24% of Stores in Storm Region on Average: Most AEO with 32% and Least COH With 12%, — We calculate that our sector has 24% of stores on average in the negatively impacted area. Based on our calculations on a relative basis, we estimate the most significant impact likely at AEO (32% of stores impacted), URBN (29%), and LTD-VS (29%), and least impacted retailers rank as COH (12%) and ROST (14%). Other retailers impact: 25%. In general, we acknowledge that retailers have significant exposure to this region affected by the storm. Our analysis includes: CT, DC, DE, MA, MD, ME, NC, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, SC, VA, & VT as the impacted area.

 

No Need to Shop for a Dress or a Watch Right Now!We do expect -40% or greater impact for the week at discretionary apparel and accessory retailers given a combination of store closures and severely depressed traffic levels; on the other hand, retailers focused on consumer staples and home improvement are likely to have traffic surges as customers seek emergency supplies, food, and home repair items.

Traffic Decelerated Into the Weekend — Weekend mall traffic was weaker given Fri -2.2%, Sat -1.6% vs. 1H’s ~flat yielding October week 4 traffic of -0.65% (week 4 ending Saturday 10/27). Month of Oct traffic was -0.40% vs. Sept’s flat & Aug’s -1%.

 

Source: Citi

 


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Mon, 10/29/2012 - 13:46 | Link to Comment Stoploss
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From now on, everything is Sandy's fault..

 

That fucking bitch.

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 13:52 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

She should go back to the kitchen and make us some sandwiches.

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 13:55 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

However, repairing, replacing and rebuilding all of the waterlogged infrastructure should provide an economic boost of Krugnmanian proportions.  

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 13:59 | Link to Comment alstry
alstry's picture

IT'S TIME FOR VIRTUAL SHOPPING GANGNAM STYLE...

This way no one will have to leave their homes....and if they are buying digital products, Sandy will have no impact.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJVoYsBym88&feature=player_embedded#t=0s

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 14:34 | Link to Comment Leopold B. Scotch
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Does this mean U.S. debt will actually plateau for a day or two before resuming ascent?

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 14:00 | Link to Comment Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Last year mother nature dressed up as a noreaster for halloween.  This year she dressed up as a hurricane.  That bitch always has the best costumes.

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 14:45 | Link to Comment LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

What Krugman leaves out...

Taxpayers Get Soaked by Government's Flood Insurance

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/Insurance/story?id=94181

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 14:00 | Link to Comment ACP
ACP's picture

But all those smart people on CNBC keep saying this will be a good thing because of all the repairs that will be needed!

You know, the storm surge lifts all boats.

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 14:49 | Link to Comment LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

Those smart people on CNBC don't tell you that is sinks the taxpayer boat and the really smart people well

Investors Are Already Bailing on Insurance Stocks

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49594958

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 13:46 | Link to Comment vinayjha
vinayjha's picture

Its insurance, airline that will have bigger impact. People wait for thanksgiving for big shopping.

http://www.freefdawatchlist.com/2012/10/things-to-watch-ahead-of-oct-29t...

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 13:50 | Link to Comment Water Is Wet
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Priced in.

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 13:52 | Link to Comment The big unzip
The big unzip's picture

I used to date a girl named Sandy.  She was a bitch and very expensive.  Best of lucky with her.  Glad she's someone elses problem now.

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 13:52 | Link to Comment CunnyFunt
CunnyFunt's picture

I was going to go out and buy an extra case of beer, but now that a dead elm tree is across my driveway, I'll skip the trip. This is fun, even when hung over. My woman is complaining since I was up drinking 'till 0500 and pissed on the bathroom floor. Come on, flood this bitch!

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 13:54 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Because "Hurricane: Excuse" is right on time..

By the way there is huge flooding on Long Island, and were are not even at low tide yet..

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 13:57 | Link to Comment slaughterer
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You guys know that this was all planned by Obama. 

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 14:18 | Link to Comment DutchR
DutchR's picture

I tought it was iranian scrypt kiddies who hacked HAARP to create Sandy so they could give DC an enema.

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 14:25 | Link to Comment LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

Someone must have taken you seriously (no sarc tag) lol

Planned by NO but they won't let a good crisis go to waste either

Here We Go… Bill Clinton Politicizes Hurricane Sandy

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 14:27 | Link to Comment forwardho
forwardho's picture

Come on, be fair.only Bush could pull off something this big. Give credit where credit due :)

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 13:59 | Link to Comment lolmao500
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What about the effects on the rat meat market??

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 14:01 | Link to Comment LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

This is bullish news for the American Retard; oops, I mean BULLTARD. Fools!

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 14:09 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Meanwhile I'm assuming the stores selling non-iJunk are all empty anyways.

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 14:21 | Link to Comment ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Convenient to be sure.  Probably have to delay jobs data, etc. until post election.  Its an ill wind...

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 14:33 | Link to Comment LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

Nonsense they already have the jobs data if they delay it the reason is political nothing else

This morning on a campaign conference call, Obama chief strategist David Axelrod pre-spun the release of the upcoming Friday jobs report. According to some reports, Axelrod predicted the numbers would not give Romney a boost. There was also a prediction released by a major pollster today that predicted a bad jobs report could be a game-changer and tip the race to Romney decisively. And then what happened…? Well, lo and behold, the U.S. Labor Department releases a statement stating the hurricane might delay the release of the jobs report:

The U.S. Labor Department on Monday said it hasn’t made a decision yet on whether to delay Friday’s October jobs report, the final reading on the labor market before next week’s federal elections.

A Labor official said the agency will assess the schedule for all its data releases this week when the “weather emergency” is over.

This would likely be an unprecedented move on the Bureau of Labor Statistic's part and is only more outrageous in the wake of an artificially low jobless claims report released earlier this month that was missing tens of thousands of jobless claims from California, one of the most populous states in the country.

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 14:25 | Link to Comment crimson
crimson's picture

Does Morgan Stanley still do their end- year on the 31st of October? It is going to be an interesting day Wednesday...

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 14:29 | Link to Comment HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

Won't this be huge for AMZN?? Maybe with a boost in online shopping they'll only lose $1.25 per share next Q report

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 14:35 | Link to Comment TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

Bets: 5 to 1 that markets are closed Wednesday too.

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 15:06 | Link to Comment Robslob
Robslob's picture

Dear American Shoppers,
This is called "FORCED" savings.
Love,
Mother Nature

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 15:08 | Link to Comment jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Utter nonsense.

People have an amount of money they can spend. Whether it's week 1, 2, 3 or 4 in November.

The real point is the value of that is much reduced.

This is just a complete scapegoat for everything.

Next up, all MBS paperwork got blown away in the wind. It's all good.

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 15:10 | Link to Comment jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Job Alert: The numbers are down as Lumberjacks have no more work due to Sandy doing it all for them.

Fucks sake.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!