New York City Peak Threat Hours: 7-10 PM When The Flooding Begins

Tyler Durden's picture

As meteorologists have been repeating all day, the biggest threat for NYC is not so much the rain, or even the wind, dangling cranes hundreds of feet above ground notwithstanding, but the storm surge. The threat here is that Hurricane Sandy will hit land just as the tide comes in, resulting in a double whammy which Wunderground has called a "gigantic bulge of water that will raise waters levels to the highest storm tides ever seen in over a century of record keeping." Add to this the impact of the full moon, which means that high tide will be 5% higher than average for the month, and Wunderground's conclusion is inevitable: "This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed since 1969, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew." How high are we talking: Sandy's storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level... According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from NHC, Sandy's storm surge is expected to be 10 - 12' above MLLW. Since a storm tide of 10.5' is needed to flood the subway system, it appears likely that portions of the NYC subway system will flood." Luckily for all, the NY Fed's tungsten gold, which is 50 feet below sea level (and 80 feet below the surface) and is in the Zone C flood evacuation area, will be perfectly "safe." And after all tungsten gold will never just float away.

From Wundeground:

Sandy already producing a record storm surge

The National Weather Service in Atlantic City, NJ said that isolated record storm surge flooding already occurred along portions of the New Jersey coast with this morning's 7:30 am EDT high tide cycle. As the tide goes out late this morning and this afternoon, water levels will fall, since the difference in water levels between low tide and high tide is about 5'. However, this evening, as the core of Sandy moves ashore, the storm will carry with it a gigantic bulge of water that will raise waters levels to the highest storm tides ever seen in over a century of record keeping, along much of the coastline of New Jersey and New York. The peak danger will be between 7 pm - 10 pm, when storm surge rides in on top of the high tide. The full moon is today, which means astronomical high tide will be about 5% higher than the average high tide for the month, adding another 2 - 3" to water levels. This morning's 9:30 am EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.9 on a scale of 0 to 6. However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was record high: 5.8 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed since 1969, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew. The previous highest destructive potential for storm surge was 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003. Sandy's storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13' and a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 - 12" shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from NHC, Sandy's storm surge is expected to be 10 - 12' above MLLW. Since a storm tide of 10.5' is needed to flood the subway system, it appears likely that portions of the NYC subway system will flood. The record highest storm tide at The Battery was 10.5', set on September 15, 1960, during Hurricane Donna.


Observed storm tide (red line) and predicted storm surge for Hurricane Sandy at The Battery on the south shore of Manhattan, New York City, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory (green line) and the NYHOPS model from the Stevens Institute of Technology (pink curve), which uses a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows. These models have a storm surge of 5 - 6', which brings the maximum storm tide--the water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--to 11' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.) Irene brought a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to The Battery in 2011. At a storm tide of 10.5', water will likely pour into the Lower Manhattan subway system, unless efforts to sandbag the entrances are successful. The NWS in NYC is predicting a 10 - 12' storm tide at The Battery during tonight's 9 pm high tide cycle.

 

* * *

And with 4 hours until the peak surge, NYC's Battery is already underwater.

Photo courtesy of @The_Domino

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
jayman21's picture

Some of the best coverage.  Thanks Tyler.  

 

no sarc

 

Not sure how much more parrot MSM I can take.  They are such talking point teleprompter idiots.

francis_sawyer's picture

Tyler... When are you going to join the honorable MSM & start putting up the "faked" Sandy images?...

~~~

http://mashable.com/2012/10/29/fake-hurricane-sandy-photos/

fuu's picture

Has Stackers got his mic set up yet?

ZerOhead's picture

The threat here is that Hurricane Sandy will hit land just as the tide comes in, resulting in a double whammy which Wunderground has called a "gigantic bulge of water that will raise waters levels to the highest storm tides ever seen in over a century of record keeping."

Personally I just don't see the problem. Wall Street has always told us a rising tide lifts all ships...

Precious's picture

Businesses are closed.  People staying home.  Go long Pampers.

Matt's picture

That's where the fun is at: flushing the toilet and having it backup and flow onto the floor. That could last for a day or two. Hopefully, when someone on the 30th floor flushes, there isn't a problem down on the first floor.

Zer0head's picture

excellent video live feed of sandy and the waves

dai.ly/VZvfvL

 

and this feed actually works

Zer0head's picture

over a century of record keeping

 

that is to say this century plus a day

hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

...capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level

10 foot storm surge probability...

Pseudo Anonym's picture

that kinda sucks if one planned on looting a store here and there and the merchandise is all wet

redpill's picture

KEVIN WHEREVER YOU ARE GET BACK TO YOUR STATION AND "MONITOR" THIS SHIT.

SWRichmond's picture

I wonder if they're still doing "stop and frisk"?  Or maybe they've decided they need a little good will for a few days?  "We all have to work together" to keep this phony baloney freedom-suppressing system together, and then once we're on the other side, we'll get right back to suppressing freedom.  Thanks for keeping us on top!

knukles's picture

Palm trees in New Jersey?

nmewn's picture

Old footage of Miami...its amazing what editing can do...I'm sayin its a conspiracy!

(I know, I know...just run with it)

knukles's picture

nmewn...
While not a Conspiracy Theorist, it is amazing over the last 10 years, the number of things used to be called conspiracies wind up having been true...  for example, the incident with the destroyer Maddox in the Gulf of Tomkin leading to the Vietnam war.... the list goes on and on.... let alone the new stuff.   Like remember it was not but a few years ago that the Bilderberg conferences never happened.. were conspiracies, nut cases, etc.

Almost all of the stuff that continues to be debated in the public/shadow world has some basis of truth, else it'd not be discussed and indeed, much seems to be enshrouded with enough mystery that something more nefarious and mysterious than let on is indeed happening.
To wit:  LBMA gold standards, where's the stuff, GATA claims of gold suppression.  With respect to the latter, Volcker has openly admitted intervening, the Fed leases gold, etc.  But not too long ago....

And then there are things like HAARP and Chemtrails.  which if one does enough research (and I mean Way the Hell Past AJ and the like) into serious scientific journals, you'd find enough to be more than intrigued and possibly become some form of "believer" that something s amiss and happening.
What, I do not know....

Chemtrails, for example.  One of my blood relatives is attending one of the best agricultural colleges in the US, is an exceptional student.  They are reading about airborne dispersed/sprayed chemical/particulate matter that for all intents and purposes which is exactly the Chemtreial claim...  In school.  Regular course work.  So be it.
It is what it is.

Personally I find the stuff more fun than reality TV, etc., so I read a lot about the stuff.  Am I a theorist?  Nope.  A lot is bolder-dash and rubbish.  But much is actually very well founded...

But fun as all hell to bring up here and let the crazies go at it.

Piranhanoia's picture

29 28 27 26....

crane update;  "it's just hanging there"   

recidivist's picture

I can remember a construction crew using a water-jet for drilling hit what they probably claimed was an unmarked sewer line.  The attached building had fecal sludge on the ceiling above each toilet.  Fortunately, nobody was on the throne when it all went down.  Bidet from hell...

Citxmech's picture

In the early days of Seattle, public restrooms were equipped with tide charts so you wouldn't flush at the wrong time and soak your shoes.  Glad to see we're making progress here. . .

Anyone write an app for this yet?

 

knukles's picture

Nov 6, 2 party system voting.

dogbreath's picture

Yup spike in the birth-death adjustment to the employment rate next july august

Seer's picture

And don't forget the doggie diapers!

Pseudo Anonym's picture

the peak threat is between 7-10 pm, yet

Businesses are closed.  People staying home.

that's premature ejaculation

Matt's picture

Since the tunnels and subways are closed, how would you go to and from work? Keep in mind, I do not think parking is the same in New York City. Why would you go into the city, just to get yourself stranded?

Haager's picture

When I was told that on Wallstreet it will go to new heights, who could have imagined they'd spoken of the water.

Dalago's picture

Sure hope the Bernake doesn't touch that third rail.  All Fed join hands now.

11b40's picture

Problem is, most don't have boats.  They just get washed away when the tide rises.  I'm still trying to recover from being run over by a yacht when the tide rose in 2009.

StychoKiller's picture

[quote] Luckily for all, the NY Fed's tungsten gold, which is 50 feet below sea level (and 80 feet below the surface) and is in the Zone C flood evacuation area, will be perfectly "safe." And after all tungsten gold will never just float away. [/quote]

Sort of a boating accident, only without the need for a boat! :>D

bdc63's picture

On a lighter note, I hear that Cirle Line Cruises is offering a 50% discount on their "Harbor Lights" sails this evening ....

nmewn's picture

And 10% off dramamine drips!!!

ACP's picture

So when does Bernanke tell the Germans that all the gold has been washed out to sea, never to be found again? Is that Wednesday or Thursday?

Haole's picture

Or that it will be at least two years before any kind of audit can be undertaken due to flood waters damaging the mechanisms on the vault doors rendering them hopelessly sealed for the duration?

sampo's picture

Cue German scuba divers invading Manhattan..

LFMayor's picture

++  cue U-96.  Das Boot.

Parrotile's picture

Too dangerous for SCUBA; it would be more sensible to use ROVs in view of the high risk of entanglement / disorientation "post event", and the probably very poor visibility.

cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

Some ROVs are 7 feet high (like the ones on Macondo well blowout), storm surge wouldn't even cover 'em much less float 'em.

cynicalskeptic's picture

Word is that it all got moved to the Fed's new operations center in NJ after 9/11........ Manhattan was too tempting a target....  shhh.... don't tell anyone.

 

BTW - did they ever recover all the gold and silver in the WTC - or was it all part of the molten blob of steel, thermite and ??? in the basement?

fonzannoon's picture

This just happened.

I was outside on my front lawn, and it is nasty out now. Nasty nasty. But my dog had to take a piss. So I am out there and she brings her ball and I give it a few throws. A car drives by and slows down and some woman yells "you are going to get killed out here what are you doing!!!" As she says this a huge branch snaps off a pine tree across the street and lands on her hood. I yell to her open window "That's called irony!" and she drove away.

 

Cortez the Killer's picture

if al roker is washed into the ocean and its not televised, did he really die?

SDShack's picture

In that case it would be a rescue of a beached whale.

Zadok's picture

Bleached whale...oh.

Dr. Engali's picture

Lol....That's rotten Fonz

blunderdog's picture

Not entertaining, but also in the "just happened" category:

A nearby neighbor who does some construction work used to keep about a dozen 4x8' pieces of corrugated sheetmetal (for roofing, I guess?) on the low roof of his basement extension.

He is now apparently storing it rather haphazardly in the back yards of folks on either side of his house.  By the end of the night, it could be in Jersey.

Boy that sure did make a deceptively loud racket.  I was expecting to see someone's roof torn off based on the noise.

Wannabee's picture

@fonz
You made my day! Stay safe and my yellow lab says give your dog a treat.

SeverinSlade's picture

Think of it this way.  According to the Keynesians, the more destruction the better.  Think of all that positive GDP!