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Where Would Stocks Be Closing If They Were Open?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With equity cash and futures markets closed, we thought it useful to gauge where equities might have closed if they were trading. As so many need month-end marks for reporting and OPEX-based hedgers are likely anxious, we thought getting some perspective from what the machines are seeing would be useful. With Kevin Henry gone gray as Treasuries closed, risk-assets slipped modestly on the day - with a late day push to the lows on the back of Merkel's 'nein' on euro-bonds. To wit, based on the dependence with FX and commodity markets, S&P 500 futures would be trading under the critical 1400 level. - and based on the Toronto Stock Exchange, S&P 500 cash would be trading around 1404 (down around 8pts on the day). S&P futures are set to re-open at 1700ET 1800ET (and based on CME's site will close again at 0915ET tomorrow).

 

Based on cross-asset class correlations (CONTEXT is a broad-risk asset indication of equity's relative fair-value), the surge into the close this morning in stock futures is overdone and FX and commodity markets remained obviously quiet but unable to 'believe' in that strength.

 

This is somewhat confirmed by the S&P/TSX which recoupled into Friday's close and has traded down all day today - implying S&P 500 cash closing at around 1404.

The same risk-on push is evident at the open in Canada today but as is clear that faded rapidly - as CONTEXT suggested.

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

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Mon, 10/29/2012 - 16:13 | 2928787 SheepDog-One
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So 'all is well' as long as we can leave markets closed....gee thats great.

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 16:21 | 2928808 knukles
knukles's picture

Owh owh owh owh owh...
I get dibs on the next big conspiracy theory.

Gotta keep markets closed till after the 6th so there's no evidence trail from the crime scenes.

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 16:27 | 2928824 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Where Would Stocks Be Closing If They Were Open?

Baumgartnering with the 157-57th St. crane probably...

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 17:07 | 2928996 Dalago
Dalago's picture

The market is anticipated to close tomorrow as well.

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 16:20 | 2928809 CPL
CPL's picture

Mean while people dump overseas.  Look at the TSX volume...where the hell did that come from?

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 16:20 | 2928807 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Trying not to date myself but I was "detained" during hurricane Gloria for windsurfing.  More wind is a good thing with a 5'' board and a 4.0 sail.  Apparently the coast guard didn't see it that way.  Liberty?  What's that?

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 16:13 | 2928790 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

1404 or lower (esp. without Kev' effect).  Europe is not helping, nor the approaching election theatre.  

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 16:14 | 2928792 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Where Would Stocks Be Closing If They Were Open, and we lived in the universe where Spock is evil and has a beard?

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 16:18 | 2928803 Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture

 

and quite the woman's man.

Therefore, a perverted market, void of logic.

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 16:56 | 2928941 Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

Live long..and print.

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 16:14 | 2928793 LawsofPhysics
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Who fucking cares, didn't we all go to cash ahead of sandy?

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 16:15 | 2928797 TeamDepends
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Laugh all you want, but we know most of you are not wearing a diaper.  When will you realize your error?  When it's too late my friend, when it's too late.

TeamDepends depends on Depends

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 16:16 | 2928799 drink or die
drink or die's picture

Last Friday I was planning on selling a few shares today (before the storm hit, since it was forecasted to hit Wed night back then).  Big mistake I guess? 

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 16:19 | 2928804 Haager
Haager's picture

Rule #1

The only winning move is not to play.

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 16:22 | 2928814 CPL
CPL's picture

Rule #2

When the news is continously 24/7 for a week about the massive storm, is being in position the smartest of things?

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 16:20 | 2928806 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

I for one would like to thank our evil alien lizard overlords for keeping the snp at such generous levels.

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 16:24 | 2928818 knukles
knukles's picture

Buzz, and speaking of conspiracy theories, that one about our "evil alien lizard" malefactors in charge deserves more air time.

(just wanna see what crazies come out after that one, eh)

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 16:30 | 2928834 fuu
fuu's picture

Reptiles.

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 16:21 | 2928812 malikai
malikai's picture

I'm seeing about 1401 at last update which was about 8 hours ago.

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 16:23 | 2928817 CPL
CPL's picture

Go check bloomberg.  Blood bath AH...probably a blood bath PM on european markets.

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 16:29 | 2928832 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Is this with or without Kevins assistance?

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 16:46 | 2928904 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Im getting a very bad feeling about November...

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 16:47 | 2928908 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Let me be more specific...November 12.

 

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 17:03 | 2928981 flaunt
flaunt's picture

LMFAO... Perma bear even when the markets are closed.

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 17:19 | 2929029 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Not a good sign when the 'Markets' can't operate during a rain storm...  not exactly a vote of confidence.

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 18:02 | 2929133 chump666
chump666's picture

Another way you got to look at it, is that we were amidst profit taking end month positioning etc.  And profit reporting has been terrible, the 100 point neg drop on futures last Friday (then melted up on close) was on the APPL results only, so shutting down markets and halting trading for even a day, end month will freak out a lot of traders.  European markets made a gallant effort in keeping markets liquid their session, except for the fact the DXY was well bid as were Treasuries - which means liquidity is tightening across the board, if there was the lone gunman theory ala the Fed college boy and his trading desk, then the DXY should be under 79.  It's not.  A flight to safety trade is right here, the ONLY things that are keeping the MA's bid on stock indices's are the HFTs.

That's it. Sandy gets more brutal, and markets are shut for 3days or more, we will have a major wipe-out on open.  We are still a long positioned market, with machines holding supports + thin liquidity+ flood water flowing down Wall Street (at some-point) = nasty days.

 

Mon, 10/29/2012 - 18:38 | 2929206 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

80 Bil?  APPL loses that in Mkt cap in a day now...the perma-bears are in control now!  One can feel it.  Money velocity  non existant.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9136903/Global-liquidity-peak-spells-trouble-for-late-2012.html

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