• Steve H. Hanke
    05/04/2016 - 08:00
    Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. A few weeks ago, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sprang a surprise. It announced that a...

And The Survey Says: If Obama, Sell Stocks; If Romney, Sell Bonds

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The US elections have the potential to have a significant impact on US equities and rates markets, according to a recent survey by Barclays Research. Investors seem to believe in a more promising growth outlook under a Romney win, in spite of their concerns about a likely tighter monetary policy stance. They favor long equities and short bond portfolios as the best way to express a Romney win. Under an Obama win, investors favor bonds and are divided about the direction of equities, but would choose bonds and equities over FX and commodities to express this scenario. Obama’s victory would likely be perceived as preserving the status quo (asset market moves are expected to be muted across the board), while a Romney win is more likely to suggest a change of direction to clients by way of a better growth outlook. Congressional deadlock remains the biggest economic/policy concern no matter who wins.

 

Congressional Deadlock remains the largest concern...

 

Stocks Flat to Down under Obama; Small to Substantial up under Romney...

 

And under Romney, Bonds To Sell-off...

 

Charts: Barclays

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Tue, 10/30/2012 - 13:38 | 2931947 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

What should I do with my silver and Gold?

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 13:42 | 2931963 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

give it to me

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 14:04 | 2932055 redpill
redpill's picture

Does it matter what color your parachute is if it has a big hole in it?

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 13:48 | 2931993 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Voting for either would be the equivalent of selling ones soul.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 13:49 | 2931998 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

SilverTree

Well, you know Rudolf has this friend....

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 14:02 | 2932047 SilverTree
Tue, 10/30/2012 - 13:49 | 2932000 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Didn't it sink to the depths of the mariana trench?

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 14:29 | 2932146 Sweet Chicken
Sweet Chicken's picture

Don't you mean smoked at the marijuana prop desk?!

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 14:04 | 2932052 dugorama
dugorama's picture

This has been the same prez investment "outlook" since Reagan.  Regardless of how stupidly the policies look for long term growth, we always interpret a R win as bullish and a D as bearish.  Regardless.  Doesn't matter if Reagan's budget was obviously going to explode defiicits, we bid the Dow to new records in his first 3 months.  etc.  the more things change....

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 13:40 | 2931948 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Obama win = King Dollar?

LOL!

Romney must yell loud noises at China to revalue the Yuan, which if it moves up will devalue the dollar and in turn send assets and goods higher, but Obama will enforce the same policy if only more slowly.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 13:40 | 2931952 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

What a lot of bull... both are bad for stocks and bonds. An election doesn't change maths.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 13:42 | 2931962 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

What is a stock and a bond denominated in? 

The dollar is the most worthless instrument of finance ever created.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 13:57 | 2932028 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

That was possibly the worst article I have ever tried to read.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 14:13 | 2932087 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Mr Lennon Hendrix

Fuck dude you are having a hard time comprehending shit today. Is it a tumor?

Drying out after a three week drunk?

Maybe Syphilis. That's what got Capone in the end.

I think he made the same complaints as you are.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 14:34 | 2932167 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Learn the definitions of "money" before you post any of this tripe please.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 14:54 | 2932231 Lore
Lore's picture

Nicole Foss, like many others, distinguishes herself by using words in slightly different ways. She argues semantics. "Hyperinflation cannot happen" has more to do with her specific context and application of definition than with the general ability of something resembling hyperinflation symptomatically to manifest in the world.

I prefer a simpler, pragmatic approach to understanding economics: IF NOBODY WANTS SOMETHING, THEN IT'S WORTHLESS, and no amount of coercion can change that.

Banksters revel in confusion about the fundamentals of value. It's the only thing that keeps the public from storming their establishments with torches and pitchforks.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 13:59 | 2932035 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Yeah, some of Raul Ilargi Meijers trolls have been spamming that shit link here lately.

It's pure rubbish.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 14:04 | 2932051 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Was there an argument some place in that article? It read like jibberish to me.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 14:20 | 2932116 kralizec
kralizec's picture

I dunno, dollar craps itself and a new host is sought to leech off of...

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 15:03 | 2932153 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Simply put - Asia, Brazil, exporters all need a strong dollar, strong Euro...and weak local currencies.

US needs a weak dollar and inflation.

US and Europe are creating massive debt...Fed, ECB, + Japan and others buying as much debt as possible...We expect it will make our currency weaker...they expect it will make our currency stronger (via reletive debasing of their currency)...Hendry's paradox?

However, the Fed's massive QE not allowing export nations to buy adequate dollars for their debasement relative to dollar will ultimately drive Yen, Yuan, Rial, Euro higher and dollar down (to all exporters and US corporations destruction???).  So, if Romney is against QE then he is actually pro corporation and pro China???  If Romney were truly anti China, he would double down on Obama's plan which was a double down on Bush's plan to QE them until dollar weakness causes true Yuan appreciation and stop their exports...turns up US exports and melts away all the unfunded liabilities???

Definite global hyperventilation and possible hyperinflation

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 14:43 | 2932198 northerngirl
northerngirl's picture

Just wait, the fun has only begun.  China has already started moving away from the dollar.  I wonder if that means they will expect repayment of all that money we owe them in Natural Resources? 

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 15:11 | 2932298 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

China's large gold purchasing program and relative equilibrium of T purchases should be causing Yuan to rapidly appreciate relative to the dollar and the Euro...thoughts why this isn't happening????

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 15:36 | 2932419 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

China's total reserves in gold are barely 2% yet. That's why.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:09 | 2932559 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

2% of what?  GDP?  China likely has 2k tons of gold already and adding at 500+ tons annually - Germany has 4k and USA supposedly 8k tons and neither is adding...as a percentage of GDP China will soon become the "soundest" of the big fiats

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:35 | 2932676 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Official TOTAL RESERVES in GOLD are 2%

Go look it up....actually 1.7% I believe

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:08 | 2932561 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

dup

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 22:21 | 2933471 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

Actually

The exchange rate of the yuan hit a 19-year high as it traded at 6.2417 yuan per dollar. 

http://uschina.usc.edu/w_usci/showarticle.aspx?articleID=18441&AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 23:41 | 2950830 _Mr.L-HRecruit_
_Mr.L-HRecruit_'s picture

Tell'em Jimmy-John!   ;)

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 13:45 | 2931968 Manthong
Manthong's picture

If Lenin, you’re screwed; if Romanov, you’re screwed.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 14:16 | 2932103 malikai
malikai's picture

Ivan would sort this out.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 13:40 | 2931953 Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

I don't own stocks or bonds so I guess I win.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 13:41 | 2931960 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Obama win? - long silver, gold, and lead due to $1T+ annual budget deficits.

Romney win? - long silver, gold, and lead due to $1T+ annual budget deficits.

Any questions?

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 13:46 | 2931982 KidHorn
KidHorn's picture

But Romey said he would balance the budget through tax cuts. Are you saying he's a liar?

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 13:49 | 2931996 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

read his lips

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 13:43 | 2931969 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

lol look at all these clowns that actually think there will be a DIFFERENCE between big gubmint guy A and big gubmint guy B

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 13:48 | 2931991 KidHorn
KidHorn's picture

The only differece I can see is if Obama wins, we'll probably go to war with Iran. if Romney wins, we'll definately be going to war with Iran. They're 4 years closer after all.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 13:44 | 2931970 chunkylover42
chunkylover42's picture

if it's Obamney, sell stocks and bonds and buy gold

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 13:56 | 2932023 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

chunkylover42

Riddle me this; If the US collapses who the fuck will you be trading Gold with?

Rappers? Crazed isolationist Preppers? ZH fanboys?

Gold is a legal currency in Utah, how is that working out?

Do you think every Seven Eleven has a small scale on the counter for your Slurpee and Dorito gold exchange?

I think it was War Nerd who pointed out that gold is only useful for any type of trade if there is a government standard to use for value.

You think you won't wind paying a gold bar for an Apple?




Tue, 10/30/2012 - 14:03 | 2932049 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

These are the worst arguements I have ever read.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 14:13 | 2932086 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You have to consider the source. Gully makes about as much sense as AnAnoyningpuss.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 14:22 | 2932124 kralizec
kralizec's picture

I am entertained though...  ;)

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 15:06 | 2932265 Lore
Lore's picture

Gully: 

Value is a decision between a buyer and a seller. It needs no "government" OR "central bank."

For practice, you might visit some Christmas craft and bake sales.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 14:04 | 2932053 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

Riddle me this....If the US collapses who the fuck are you going to be trading those fiat dollars with? WHo in the fuck would want them?

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 14:11 | 2932083 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

GubbermintWorker

Again not the point.

Gold is presently valued in "Fiat Dollars".

Remove that standard and what is Gold valued at?

Take some time and find a letter from a Bosnian war survivor. He claimed the nearest strongest currency was much more useful than gold or silver.

In the case of the US would that be the Canadian dollar or the Peso?

As I have already stated Utah accepts gold and silver as currency. Do you see a mad rush to move there and live on a gold standard? Do you see this love of metals reflected in local establishments?



Tue, 10/30/2012 - 14:26 | 2932138 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

If the US collapses I'll probably be trading lead long before gold and silver.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 14:27 | 2932142 edifice
edifice's picture

Too complex an argument. It's a simple matter of pondering these questions:

Would I rather store my money under a digital mattress (savings account) and lose to inflation?

or

Would I rather store my money under my own mattress in the form of something tangible, that is hedging against inflation?

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 14:30 | 2932143 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Hey Gully..holding gold is not about trading with it. Holding gold is for the transfer of wealth when the dollar collapses at worst..or devalued at best. Either way gold will hold it's buying power where the existing fiat will not. When the new currency is issued it wwill have to be backed by something other than the full faith and credit of the  U.S government and military. That something  will probably be gold.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 14:32 | 2932158 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

And...According to a study of 775 fiat currencies by DollarDaze.org, there is no historical precedence for a fiat currency that has succeeded in holding its value. Twenty percent failed through hyperinflation, 21% were destroyed by war, 12% destroyed by independence, 24% were monetarily reformed, and 23% are still in circulation approaching one of the other outcomes.

The average life expectancy for a fiat currency is 27 years, with the shortest life span being one month. Founded in 1694, the British pound Sterling is the oldest fiat currency in existence. At a ripe old age of 317 years it must be considered a highly successful fiat currency. However, success is relative. The British pound was defined as 12 ounces of silver, so it's worth less than 1/200 or 0.5% of its original value. In other words, the most successful long standing currency in existence has lost 99.5% of its value.

Given the undeniable track record of currencies, it is clear that on a long enough timeline the survival rate of all fiat currencies drops to zero.

 

http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2011/08/average-life-expectancy-fo...

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 14:32 | 2932159 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

And...According to a study of 775 fiat currencies by DollarDaze.org, there is no historical precedence for a fiat currency that has succeeded in holding its value. Twenty percent failed through hyperinflation, 21% were destroyed by war, 12% destroyed by independence, 24% were monetarily reformed, and 23% are still in circulation approaching one of the other outcomes.

The average life expectancy for a fiat currency is 27 years, with the shortest life span being one month. Founded in 1694, the British pound Sterling is the oldest fiat currency in existence. At a ripe old age of 317 years it must be considered a highly successful fiat currency. However, success is relative. The British pound was defined as 12 ounces of silver, so it's worth less than 1/200 or 0.5% of its original value. In other words, the most successful long standing currency in existence has lost 99.5% of its value.

Given the undeniable track record of currencies, it is clear that on a long enough timeline the survival rate of all fiat currencies drops to zero.

 

http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2011/08/average-life-expectancy-fo...

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