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No Joy In Cupertino: Europe Implies Sub-$600 AAPL After Firings
While every talking-head that is not bailing out their Westchester McMansion is claiming that AAPL's firing of its iOS and Retail division heads is somehow a bullish thing, European traders in AAPL disagree. Given where the European composite price for AAPL (via Deutsche Bourse) is trading, it would appear AAPL is back back under $600 - quick, we need another narrative for why stocks will open up tomorrow!
AAPL vs Europe's AAPL share price...oops!
Chart: Bloomberg
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Print them up a lil hope!
Test of 200DMA at $588 is in store for AAPL. Not touching it beforehand. The stock usualy peaks on Tuesdays and then recedes into Friday W expiries anyhow. This week skeptical Europeans took over Tuesday. Come to Germany, see that nobody is buying the iPhone5--just kids playing with it in the iStores, and nobody leaving the stores with the box in hand. (I know it is different in USA).
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The expansion of Ives' responsbilities beyond Industrial Design was a very bad move.
The other two guys should have been removed discretely long ago.
Personally, I think the iPhone5 is a POS in terms of build quality. So are the MacBook refreshes. But iMac is OK.
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iPad mini makes AAPL even more a toy manufacturer--mini will certainly appeal to kids of money-strapped middle class. But once you go down this road (the road SJ never wanted to take)....
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Anybody notice the margins deteiorating last earnings? We did....
OT: Oops, sorry, I USED to have 700 tons of gold ore, but I lost it in a boating accident.
WOT...
way out of topic, fixed it for you...
Reporting from Cupertino, Skateboarder confirms that there is indeed no joy. Stop taking over my town you smug piece of shit company.
Still waiting for CrAAPLChino to break the ytd moving average, then go below $550. Watch'n'weep as they post losses for Q1, or so goes my prediction.
Post LOSSES for Q1?? That is awfully unlikely considering they are the most profitable company on the planet. Even if their margins got cut in half they would still make a shitload of cash.
That said, Apple isn't exactly starting the post-Jobs era on the right foot.
Whoops, didn't mean to say "losses" as in negative net income, as that's impossible, but rather a bigger swing on misses on revenue and EPS estimates. They are going out to try and compete with Pandora on the internet radio realm in Q1. I think it's gonna backfire on them, especially if they use that piece of excrement called iTunes.
Braeburn Capital is gonna make a killing regardless of anything else though. They're at what, $120B now?
AAPL was held together by the mettle of one semi-fascist innovator/opportunist/businessman. Now that he is gone it must start to unravel.
Apple has had a great run. No guarantee that is hasn't ended - but I won't be a participant. I noticed my own enthusiasm for it's products died along with Steve Jobs. Gonna keep my iMac and UNIX kernal unless something really compelling comes around (it won't be Windows, that I know), but the iPhone and iPad, I'm not so sure. The competition stacks up better every day, and that's why I traded in Windows for Mac in the first place. It has to make sense & iTunes, iPhoto, etc, do not really bind you to the platform in the same way that Office binds you to Windows.
Europeans are probably right. What's Scott Cook. A supply chain guy. What's Scott Forstall. A hardware and software technology guy. Fuck supply chain. Tyco can do supply chain.
It seems like Forstall was a large participant in most recent innovations at Apple. Siri and Maps were not failures as the press would have you believe. Forstall gets all the blame? This is a guy who has been around since NeXT days. Oh. Too bad. He criticized all those engineering primadonnas at Apple. What. They can't take any criticism or directions. Unless you've worked around these drama queens, you can't understand. Like all the spoiled brats in Silicon Valley, they are worse than a bunch of hens with roadbikes and ponytails. And they love to use the schmeblings in the press like the whore-Satans at All-Things-D to vent their bleeding hearts. Wah. He actually made me get my project done on time. Just look at all the anti-Forstall articles and the fact that most of them are written by the margin lusting Torah faction quoting some off the record program manager or engineer. In fact, Forstall has been at the front of the most successful products in recent history. But surely this success cannot go unpunished. Forstall was fired because he wouldn't apologize for Maps? Fuck you Scott Cook, you stupid slut. Well. Nevermind, huh. There is a long line of successors already designated by the head Rabbi.
It is obvious that the Semites wanted Forstall gone. Apple is one of the few tech companies not yet infltrated by them. They are constantly lusting after control of Apple, just like they control Microsoft, Oracle, Dell, Google, Facebook, Salesforce, Yahoo, AOL, Twitter, Craigslist, Wikipedia and on and on. Jobs had a bead on these people. Why did Jobs pick Isaacson to write his biography. Keep your enemies closer? He knew how the game worked. He sold Pixar to Disney in spite of the bozo Eisner. Apple will be destroyed within 5 years. All by Tim Cook. The guy who didn't have the balls to tell the heebs where to get off. In Europe they know this already. Americans are just too ignorant to stop being tools for these people. And you can't get much more naive American than Tim Cook from Alabama.
Anyway. Apple is now unseaworthy, just like Steve Job's freaky yacht with the hole in the bow and the asshat on top. Maybe Forstall can run Google's reincarnation of NeXT, which they conveniently call Nexus with the big X logo in neo-Apple rainbow, and which is poised to kick the shit out of Apple.
It's hard to imagine a stock with Apple's P/E really tanking, at least, right now anyway. So, I think it consolidates. But, why own the stock anymore? Is there really a reason to own it at $600 / share when we know hardware is subject to commoditization. The answer is NO. It may go up, it may go down, but it now has limited upside.
All it takes is one great product that people believe in to really make the margin squeeze real. People want Steve Jobs, not a Tim Cook. We could get that from Microsoft - and it's already showing up in the results.
W.r. t. Ives> I know at least 2 industrial designers in Tokyo that could have designed the things Ives designed, but they would have taken a lot longer to do it. With Ives saddled with User Interface software tasks, expect the product cycles to slow down at AAPL, as well as the innovation. Sorry.
Can't the NYSE just fix this tomorrow?
Not this ramp-it-all-up-week.
Just throw em $100B's that should fix it.
AAPL still terribly overvalued, but getting rid of Forstall and his crappy interface design makes it less overvalued than it was before.
overvalued compared to what ? Amazon?
I think what he is saying (or at least I'll say) is that Apple is potentially way overvalued on a basis of total market capitalization. To look at the current trailing and estimated forward P/E multiples, book value, and cash, does not tell you a lot about whether it is sustainable, or subject to change. What we know is that technology changes fast, and that companies have to continue to differentiate themselves to command high margins. Since Apple is at the high end of the margin scale and competitors are undercutting them with what are becoming more compelling products, why would we expect the equation to stay the same for Apple?
Maybe we get another surprise from Apple, but as a guy who has traded the stock for years, I'm looking for another company to rise up. The market cap is just too high.
No problem. Just press the button.
BULLISHHH!!! Think of all that insurance money that will go to iPads instead of whatever the hell they lost in the flood
What do those Europee-ans know anyway. I mean come on Tyler - Europe is hopelessly on the wrong side of every trade.
Short Rump Ram IN
It's the OBAMAPPLE syndrome - a little hope and change. Can't you feel it? Feels like cold water, hot rats and squishy turds floating around the chin.
Either that or nobody is buying iStuff in the northeast because of Sandy.
Apple had news?! I'm shocked... shocked it's not being talked about elsewhere. I'm sure the robots will have it ramped back up tomorrow before we open. We can't have anything going south until November 7th.
If it can bankrupt California faster, AAPL to $0!
Maybe there is a bullish case for Apple just based on the NY Fed needing to come in to rescue CALPERS. Hell, Janet Yellen is probably pushing another QE based on it's back to back earnings reports alone!
They will probably blame Sandy for the lack of sales. You know if they actually did a futurama eyephone I'd buy it - so funny
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EaHUpWuqNHY
No narrative needed - What is is. Reality is what the numbers say it is. Jus cause a few bloggers are awash in "facts" and "logic" why what is shouldn't be what is...does not change that it is...what it is.
The last bit of Steve's Reality Distortion Field got washed off the NYC Apple stores and is floating down the Hudson and East Rivers amid sewerage and corpses.
These folks won't be stocking up on ishit for the holidays. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9643500/...
It seems that the biggest users of iPhones are kids, yet they break the screens like they are going out of style. How much longer will parentsput up with this "designed to crack" BS anyway?
The iPad is great for education. It's the future for schools. But, like the original Mac, Apple does not have a "lock" on tablet computers - just a great leading edge on the form and design factors.
Originally, Apple made a Mac, and it was great. Then, they went into this multiyear funk trying to find themselves as the PC was totally commoditized and they tried to sell a vertically stacked product at a higher price. I'm not sure what is different this time, except Steve Jobs is not going to come back.
Apple will keep making products people will buy. The detractors will keep looking for the worms. The stock price will move up and down. Apple has billions in cash and enough employees to fire a lot of them without major harm to product or services.
What is the big deal? except to day traders and gamblers.
I connected and Android tablet to the net yesterday as a favor for someone. Part of my daily service to the free world.
God Bless You Mr. Rosewater.
Really? Android is hardly a bastion of freedom. You want freedom you need to look at Jolla.
http://jollatides.com/
AAPL to hit $350-$400 in 2013...
I a so tired of all this shit coming down. And we are not even close to the end. On and on. And the top 3% and all worthless politicians keep getting wealthier. A disaster is brewing in Amerika.
Apple is starting to get the look of a "value trap". The P/E multiples are still compelling, but like consumer electronics they are prone to margin compression via commoditization of their market. Who knows exactly when this happens, but on two earnings misses, still sitting on 40% gains for the year, guidance that doesn't look that hot, and the high profile exodus of a key executive, I think it's time to say goodbye.
The fundamentals go like this: Apple sells hardware - fucking hardware folks. There's no margin in hardware. There's also itunes and AppleTV.
AAPL's largest money maker remains the iphone. MFH - more hardware.
And then there's Google - they give away software and have a really cool website that generates cash for people clicking. Android is going to crush Apple very soon.
Oh wait, there's an ipad - I heard AAPL has a $500 unit now - but wait, Google is releasing a larger unit that will sell for $200.
So now that we know AAPL is fucked, go long AAPL because it's all bullish out there.
tired of Apple's sudden shifts. I refused to go to the cloud and now all sync-ing has to be manual. They make simple shit complicated and then it is near impossible to get simple questions answered. I refuse to become 'knowledgeable' about a simple tool. They are like a hammer maker that decides to add features that require new training in'efficient hammer use'.
The Lord's iStock shall ever open up. On this, the Lord taught us in a likening, saying that 'A man abiding in the borough of His Street died in a storm, leaving all that he owned to his two sons. The elder was given the house, the younger the loose fee. Soon, the brethren sought to fasten their fee that it might iGrow. The younger said to the elder, 'The Lord teacheth that there is no gold but fool's gold, and that it is a sicker haven in a storm. What if a strom take us, as one did our father? I shall take my share to a broker of malms and sell it for fool's gold.' 'Much well,' quoth the elder brother, 'but I cannot do this, for I was given the fast fee. Instead, I shall give a banker of the Lord the keys to my house if he be so kind as to give me a share of His i Stock, for I have heard the Lord say that 'tis the greatest of gesthouses and that there be room for all in it. If he giveth me a share, I shall sickerly move in.' Thereafter, the younger brother went to trade his fee for fool's gold, but the broker had none. 'What shalt thou sell me then,', he axed, 'as thou hast no fool's gold?' 'Wolfram that which men call the heavy stone' answered the broker. 'Alas,' quoth the younger brother, ''tis the stuff of the Lord's own midbanks! I shall sickerly have it. Indeed, if I had a kitchen sink to throw in, I would, for thou art to be greatly thanked.' But the broker was a sly man and greedy, so he put gold in the younger brother's bag instead of wolfram. 'May His iMains bless thee,' quoth the younger brother and fared home, unaware of what was in his bag. Soon thereafter, he took his own life, for no banker would take it for an iShare, and it had no known worth. Meanwhile, the older brother went to one of His bankers and gave him the keys to his house, saying, 'I give thee the keys to my house that I may have a share of His iStock.' ''Tis not enough,' quoth the banker, 'Thou wilt have to throw in thy kitchen sink'. 'Well enough,' answered the elder brother, 'I shall wend home, take it from within my kitchen and give it to thee.' Soon thereafter, the elder brother edturned to the banker with his kitchen sink and axed, 'What else must I do to be given a share of His iStock?' 'Undertoken this writ with thy name, and I shall give thee not only an iShare, but also an hundreth deal of every kitchen sink in thy shire at an hundred times its worth this day.' 'Blessed be His iMains that be!', quoth the elder brother, 'But I cannot read the Lord's Bankish. What saith it?'. 'There is no need for thee to understand what it saith,' quoth the banker, ' for thou art not of His chosen fellowship and 'tis only a benchmark kind of writ.' The Bankish read: Culinary Materials Preparation Facility Macro-Utilities Re-Hypothication Form for Non-Algorhythmic Organisms 26c (Leverage Ratio 100:1). The brother thereupon undertokened the writ with his name, was given an iShare and wended happily on his way. Soon thereafter, the folk of not only his borough, but all his shire, took him for their king, saying, 'Our kitchen sinks are worth an hundred times what they once were, thanks to this man, who also owneth an hundreth deal of every sink in our shire. Truly, he is of the Lord.' The elder brother then answered, saying, 'Fare ye then one by one and each on his own day to trade in your kitchen sinks for iShares, that ye may live forever in His iGesthouse.' And the folk did as he told them to do and traded in their kitchen sinks for iShares, one by one and each on his own day. Thus it is that His iStock openneth up every day, for there is ever one that throweth in a kitchen sink.'