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Sandy Total Loss Estimate: Up To $100 Billion
In a stunningly accurate prediction of what to expect from a 100-year storm, the following 2011 report assessing the 'risk increase to infrastructure due to a sea level rise' provides everything you did not want to know about just how bad the situation is with recovery from Sandy's damage but were afraid to ask. Based on extrapolations from storm surge heights, the authors see a 'perfect storm' of this magnitude likely creating a total loss between $50 and $100bn. As Atlantic Cities notes, citing the report: The researchers also estimate that... it could take the subway system about 21 days to get working at 90 percent functionality. If all potential damage is considered, ...that timeline could increase to several months, and that "permanent restoration of the system to the full revenue service that was previously available could take more than two years."
Obviously these are only predictions, but the detail and prescience of the report are stunning in their accuracy now that the 'event' has occurred. Of course, the MTA has done whatever possible to prepare - and will do everything to get this vital infrastructure back in service but with the head of MTA noting this is the worst disaster ever, we suspect the 4-5 day estimate is over-promising.
The vast majority of New York City’s and the MEC region’s basic infrastructure (in its narrow sense of engineered structures and systems) was built and developed between about 100 and 50 years ago. This buildup occurred during the time of largest population influx, primarily driven by immigration. Today, with about 20 Million people living, working and commuting in its 31 counties, the MEC region is home to the largest public transportation system in the US...
...But without a properly functioning regional public infrastructure, private “Wall Street” and other major business sectors of the region could not exist. Infrastructure systems behave like inter-dependent growing organisms. This interdependence poses risks, however. If one system fails or under-performs, others can be severely affected...
Here is the prediction for storm surge areas:
...Note that for worst-case scenario storms stronger than Category 2, Lower Manhattan will be split into two islands, along Canal Street; i.e. the financial district would be entirely cut off from any escape routes. Entrances to subway, road or rail tunnels or ventilation shafts will be at or below flood levels, not to speak of the building stock and other assets that are located in the flooded areas...
and the prediction for the effect on the Brooklyn-Battery Tunnel
...But regardless of climate change, the increasing potential for storm-related losses due to population and asset growth is already reason enough to address those risks and look for coping and adaptation strategies...
...The Metro East Coast (MEC) infrastructure, like the infrastructure in many other large US cities with an aged inventory, has suffered for many decades from deferred maintenance. This has created a huge demand for infrastructure capital spending to restore and expand the aged systems in the MEC region and elsewhere...
All losses discussed here are total losses related to a given event. They include insured and uninsured losses. They include losses from coastal surge, riverine flooding and wind damage. They apply to the entire built environment, not just infrastructure or transportation infrastructure...
Estimated Losses $50-100bn! - based on Storm Surge extrapolations:
This is accrued loss over the next 100 years from this storm (given its probability of occurrence) - but since the storm just hit then there is no accrual! A 13-14ft Storm Surge implies a $50-100 billion total loss now!
And a rather scary sounding conclusion:
The problem of sea level rise that New York City and the MEC are about to face will be faced by coastal megacities and shore-bound populations all around the US coasts, in fact around the globe, in rich and poor countries alike. New York City and the surrounding MEC region could be in the unique position to muster the financial and intellectual resources, perhaps even the communal political wit and will (sic!) to set a world-class example for how to deal with such a fundamental societal / environmental issue. NYC and the surrounding MEC could do so in par with its often self-declared status as the 'financial capital' of the world. The City that never sleeps? True or not, 'mother nature' will see to it that wake-up calls will abound.
and the author of the study produced a more recent update - focused on the future of the Brooklyn Waterfront - unbelievable...
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the proverbial straw on the proverbial camel. sorry guys but i think thats it.
KEYNESIAN WET DREAM!
ALL WE NEED NOW IS AN ALIEN INVASION....
Obama's poll numbers will go up as Libya and the economy get off the front page. Alien invasion would ensure reelection. Bring it on.
$100 Billion--now we are getting somewhat closer to the truth, however this thing will get over 1 Trillion!! When you consider the New York Subways, all the flooded high rises... La Guardia... All those ocean front properties....
One Billion dollars!!!! MMMMUUUUUUWWWWAAAAAHHHH!
Reports are already coming out that Homeowners are finding out that they were "self-insured" even though they had been paying their premiums.... Ya gotta love these Insurance companies. "You pay every month, then when you have a claim-they deny you!"
Perhaps this is the point where Americans realise that there are reasons why cities and towns develop only in certain areas, and unlike America, why they develop over thousands of years and not a few hundreds. Perhaps this is the point where Americans realise why native Indians didn't settle down and build houses in the path of hurricane's and tornados, and on geological faults.
Seems to me like a few million people just bought houses in the wrong place, and maybe should consider moving before disaster really befalls them. Alternatively of course, they could sit there and hold their hands out for more money when real calamity eventually arrives...
Zuck you are tha man
the lovely Randi would be proud of her bro
big BALLS marky for pulling down this post on the seal page, you are a class act
http://specialoperationsspeaks.com/articles/facebook-censors-navy-seals-...
21 days to get the subways to 90% capacity/operational functionality?
I'll bet against that by a factor of double (if not triple) all day and every day, bitchez.
Anyone in government who makes that claim is either a) lying, or b) functionally retarded.
Saltwater does a mission critical hit job on any ferrous metal/metal alloys it comes into contact with in vey short order. Unless the government brain trust wants to claim it's secretly ripped out subway tracks and given them a nice, thorough bath in zinc baths over the past several years, they're full of total shit.
"the financial district would be entirely cut off from any escape routes"
and they call this a disaster
Broken window fallacy...I think there are a few Kenesians that know this.
Peter Schiff on the hurricane and broken window fallacy:
http://www.planbeconomics.com/2012/10/30/peter-schiff-and-broken-window-...
It's good to know this country has saved all these years for a rainy day.
why save when jews can just print?
Krugman just ejaculated.
Make what you will of this:
http://presscore.ca/2011/?p=7507
ori
There is enough data/scientific journals in the public domain that to assume there is no manipulation of these sorts demands extreme speculation.
If I parsed your statement correctly...indeed. One just needs to take a look at patents granted. Especially since 1990.
ori
What's the total loss to US economy from Shittibank's Sandy Weil and his protege Jamie Dimon?
Stoopid question.
Whodathunk a tunnel under a river couldaflood?(Thads a genus guessdion.)
Isn't that what Keynesian is about? Stoopid tunnels (whatever) repaired/replaced, a perfect ponzi.
But then they don't need a perfect storm to get perfect excuse to spend, do they?
More "debt = claim on future wealth".
Who was it that said;
The greatest threat to our National Security is the financial collapse of our economy, and peoples ability to pay for natural disasters, that have been taken away from them by the Federal Reserve Corporation?
That would be me, over and over again. I don't even want to think about what would happen if California had a major earthquake these days.
Hurricane Sandy was intensified by considerable Geo Engineering operations.
Raytheon who holds the patents, Evergreen International and others should be Sued for damages, loss of life and property damage, for the operations they conducted intensifying the storm.
The Climate Changers and Progressers can go pound sand. We have global cooling now due the extended Solar Minimum.
NASA June 2012 Solar Cycle 24 Predictionhttp://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/06/08/nasa-june-2012-solar-cycle-24-prediction/
Here's the proof of Geo Engineering Sandy;
Hurricane Sandy Geoengineering Update 10-27 and Law Suit http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6XGUtvUmFo Hurricane Sandy Geoengineering 10-26-2012 Intellicast Updatehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sXST3Naagbo
Aerosol Geoengineering and Hurricane Modification Program Run by Homeland Security
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPbuOMSlDbA
GeoEngineering Exposed
http://chemtrailsplanet.net/
abuse at the macro level and, o.t. but too good to pass up, at the micro:
http://rt.com/usa/news/taser-boy-playground-webb-611/
100 billion?
That's less than 1% of what Bernanke has printed and given to banks (Wall Street and elsewhere).
NYC could enact a 1% tobin tax (tax on financial transactions). Yep, tax every single HFT transaction. At a thousand a second, yep, they'd raise 100 billion pretty fast.
What is sales tax in NYC? 9%? 10%?
But 1% on financial "sales" is too much?
Seriously, only $100 bill? That's a fuckin champagne brunch in Bernankistan.
God tried to wipe out greed on manhattan Noah's Ark style, but underestimated pile of shit they have built over there.
bring a bigger storm next time!
Meanwhile, top 0.1% busy asking government for bailouts and "emergency disaster area" to get tax writeoffs.
Totally off topic
Schiff is so effing hot....
Oh what I wouldn't give for a few hours to pick his brain...or something. :)
Why? Schiff has nothing original. All sorts of folks right here on ZH know way the fuck more than he does.
Don't you fret your <insert adjective> little head. .Gov will pick up the tab for those who need it the least.
Their insurance covers hurricanes. It doesn't cover floods.
Somebody just told me it was downgraded to TS just befor it came ashore.
Sneaky arseholes. It's all in the language and timing, isn't it?
Insurance, surely the most corrupt, intellectually dis-honest and morally bankrupt industry in the world.
ori
If this really is/was fight club, I should be able to see who my junkers are. Many other web-sites will allow you to see who upped and downed you.
Minus that feature, this is Fight Club in panties.
Hey Tylers, how about a pink theme? Eh?
;-)
ori
Hahahahaha.... panty junker strikes again.
Krugman 1
Austerity 0
get over it NYC wimps
meanwhile Facebook censors Navy Seal re Benghazi
and meanwhile apartment 6a in the village has no power
clearly the latter is of most serious concern and subject of intense debat, I mean think of the suffering of those poor souls in lower Manhattan, may god watch over them and protect them - and to hell with the rest of the world
"and meanwhile apartment 6a in the village has no power"
As .gov tells the peeps to stay tuned to .gov for the latest...that they have no power is just a technicallity.
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=9AA02838-0E81-4238-A537-30D68B6772A7
100 Billion? Well if that number is meant to shock John Q public it should have the reverse effect and maybe they will realize that if 100 Billion will fix NJ and Ny city then the TRILLIONS shoveled into failed banks for propping up worthless paper assets was not worth it.
RIGHT ON THE MONEY!!!
Reality hits hard Bitchezzz. That subway will take way past the year end to be fully functional barring some other 2012 eventuality.
And the costs will be way over 100 Billion bucks of devalued dollars and that does not even include the economic costs resulting from millions of conmmuters on a forced vacation for a few months.
That should increase the unemployment rate by a few points. Albeit temporarily....
Might be good for the car industry but not good for traffic.
Totally off topic, but just a little light reading for everyone as I ponder how the Fed Head & his lapdogs at the Fed (as well as his masters), along with scumbag politicians, will continue to spin the "inflation is low" bullshit. The U.S. Government, fronted by the Fed, is determined to inflate their way out of their IOU tsunami, bitchez; hey, look!, here's one of those jagoff tools popping off right here: 10-30 20:27: Fed's Kocherlakota says 'strongly' disagrees that Fed easing is excessive
Says:
- Sees signs monetary policy as 'too tight'.
- Too early to tell the full ramifications of hurricane Sandy on the US economy.
- Unemployment could fall to 5% to 6% without pushing inflation above 2%.
$100,000 Income: No Big Deal AnymoreAnd some choice excerpts:
What's the average wage now then, $60K or 100?
Just curious...
Illegal alien invasion.......
Illegal aliens? Can they vote Democrat?
already do.
But they are overridden by the GOP controlled Diebold corporate vote counters so really they cancel each other out in the end.
The Diebold machine data is sent to a Spanish company for compilation and reporting that just so happens to be owned by George Soros.
Too much fox news?
Aldous, you are the acme. But in this case, knuckie has got it right. Judenraete George is, in fact, counting about 60% of the votes. Since we need Civil War II ASAP, and only the Kenyan can give it to us, this is all good.
That's a metric fuck-ton of broken windoze
This has to be the black swan. Who the f is going to pay for this? The insurers? HA. No fkin way. They will croak trying. So when they deny the claim will FEMA cover it? If not then the tapped out consumer just got shot in the head.
Reinsurers crapped thier pants for a week over this. That's who gets fucked. I see Allianz bankrupt in a couple months. Appears State Farm has a huge stake also, so thier RI's are fucked. It's both an infrastructure and financial disaster. EPIC.
I just hope the rats are OK. They took the brunt of it, and have no insurance.
The rat bastard bankers can go to hell.
Liquefaction of yet another ponzi.
We'll see.
I don't mean to come off like my neck of the woods is the center of the universe. I just mean that I don't think it could take much to sink the what was left of the economy into an abyss and this could be it. I think a lot of people get left twisting in the wind. Maybe they will do an emergency loan program so people can load up on more debt and screw the deleveraging thing.
Definitely PEOPLE will be fucked over, count on it. Sink into an abyss is good imagery to be sure, but it's the PEOPLE (and the rats) that get the real fucking.
Yet another "emergency loan" program is questionable. Loans are supposed to be repaid, and with the economy in a wasteland it would seem better just to give them some dough. Esp. the people that watched thier houses burn with no FDNY response. Fair credit, FDNY was in a bad way as well.
Sad situation for many "regular folks" out there, but, the markets open tommorow so thier fucking can be continued.
Damn I'm cynical as hell tonight....
If ever there was an opportunity to LITERALLY drop $100 bills out of helicopters to the general population, now would be a great time for a test run in lower Manhatten and NJ!
Long Bennie Bux
Warren Buffett, along with his partner in CronyKapitalism, Charlie "Suck On It, Taxpayers" Munger, on an individual basis, probably have more exposurers to insurance corporations, re-insurers, and the re-insurers to re-insurers, than anyone.
I'd love to see this take a big, gnarly bite out of both their asses (not because they're wealthy, but because of the manner by which they grew their wealth).
Bingo. Warren will need a double dose of Viagra next time Becky Quickie comes calling for her blowjob for an interview in Omaha. I am sure the old welfare king will tap Obama quick for an emergency FEMA bailout of his re-insurers.
Wall Street and Washington DC both shut down. Just God doing "God's Work".
Seems like the latest internet rumor is that the elections will be postponed due to the storm.
Allstate, who has bankrupted its elementary home school district claims to have delivered 12,000 teddy bears to storm victims; because people come first. This is an ironic, bald-faced lie. Allstate is as much a corporate community rapist as any that has conned the American public.
Allstate sought an unchallenged tax assessment ruling in an obscure state court which did not even inform the school district or assessment office there was a challenge to its tax base standard. Any claim Allstate makes that it supports higher education, on every NCAA football broadcast ad, is a dishonest, PR-slanted misrepresentation. They don't support their local district school district, they are trashing it.
Fucking junkers...read a book.
I meant the real rats, genus Rattus.
Little crawly smart bastards, fur and a tail.
It's hard to explain I guess.
Don't worry about the rats...those little somabitchezs are excellent swimmers and climbers.
Most work on Wall Street already.
Reinsurers in trouble? How can that be? They have such sophisticated models!!
LOL!!
Fuck them.
Allianz is as good a guess as any. You know Uncle Warren will be fine.
Not a guess at all, hell they are all going to pay...Munich, Hanover, Swiss...
But have you looked at Allianz books lately? They HAVE been in the news, even of "fringe" blogs. Basket case to start with.
Buffett will be fine, just a little rub and tug with Becky.
I'd enjoy that myself actually except she has been sullied, and I like Kayla better. The only time I unmute CNBS.
And SHE's ALL MINE (slaughterer). You already have Lisa.
I have been wondering about AXA for a while. But yeah I hear you with Allianz. They sold those dirty "indexed annuites" for the last few years they were prob cleaning up on fees. But they don't qualify for TARP type assistance (I think) so I would not be surprised at all to see them bite it.
A lot more credibility would have been recognized if you could have been seen running with the crazies at Home Depot with the Fonzanoon shirt.
yeah I set the stage and then did not show up when it was go time. I could have redeemed myself on the kayak too and I whiffed.
You get a downvote because you built up my hopes and then dashed them on the rocks. I wanted to see you looting and pillaging Home Depot and/or kayaking with a "Fuck you Kevin" sign. Maybe next time?
In order to receive TARP money all any life insurer had to do was buy a small bank. One of the big ones in Hartford did just that.
The life insurers got off pretty much on EZ street with this. The casualty insurers are the ones who will take it up the ass (which probably means anyone living within 15 or 20 miles of any coast is about to get their anus ripped out-- in addition to the anus that's already been removed-- on their property insurance premiums).
A bunch of east coasters (especially in Florida) and Gulf Coasters are going to put on their Tony Montana angry faces when they see their incoming property insurance premiums for decades to come.
Most Homeowners in FL are insured by the company that the state set up. So, LOL, there.
FL has never paid the proper cost of their hurricane exposure.
What "state" Florida hurricane insurance fund? Citizens?
It's an illllusion. It's insolvent. It couldn't pay out claims for another 1/4 of an Andrew. Then again, Uncle Sam would just probably sell some more tnotes to the Bernank (indirectly, of course), and bail everybody out, because it's in the Constitution (somewhere, I think) that taxpayer bailouts for risks associated for choosing to build a structure in a known Hurricane Stomping Ground (while not carrying private insurance) are mandatory.
Hurricane Insurance: Private Insurers At Risk | TheLedger.comCitizens is a company set up by the state, but it is not state run nor is the state directly responsible for it's debts. See Fannie Mae. Wink, wink.
Fannie & Freddie are both Federal GSEs.
The 100 Year Floodplain Map is generated by FEMA, another Federal Agency, and homes who encroach upon its envelope (with new permits for construction or expansion not being sllowed in such cases) or are built within a certain distance of it can't get private flood insurance, but must get it via FEMA.
Hurricane & casualty insurers have fled states like Florida, hence the pooled risk state administered program.
I would love to hear how Fannie Mae has direct relevancy to the larger issue of hurricane-wind-water resultant casualty losses in Florida high risk zones or those in any other state???
The insurers haven't all coughed up for the February 2011 earthquake claims over here yet so I don't hold your breath.
Some homeowners here have been told it will take upwards of 4 years to process their claims. And this was after the media and politicians shamed them into to speeding things up. Total cost is USD18bil which is was the second most expensive insurance hit in history when both quakes are added together - behind only the Japanese sunami ($35bil).
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/rebuilding-christchurch/6663626/February-quake-third-most-expensive
How much of the damage from EQ was actually covered? Writing EQ insurance is esoteric stuff. Of course if the coverage was from London, I just want to wish you colonials good luck.
Uncle Warren will arrange for a bailout. Fuck him.
And some P&C insurers are long catastrophe bonds in their portfolios.
Du-fucking-h
save us Kevin Henry!!!!
You are likely going to help pay for it even if you don't live there another reason to take power away from the federal government and return it to the states people who don't live in flood prone or hurricane prone area's still have to end up subsidizing those who do. But it won't be a black swan since ben can print all the money obama and schumer want and insurance companies who do end up paying have sufficient funds to do so (they aren't the banks) they only estimate insured losses at $10 Billion. People should read their insurance policy's most do not cover flooding.
Taxpayers Get Soaked by Government's Flood Insurance
National Flood Insurance Taxpayer Calculator
Name:
National Flood Insurance Taxpayer Calculator
Cost:
$18,750,000,000*
This analysis looks at what will happen if the taxpayer has to bail out the National Flood Insurance Program. NFIP has had to periodically borrow from the U.S. Treasury to pay flood insurance claims when claims amount to more than annual premiums. The NFIP was once self-supporting, but in 2005 the program incurred approximately $17 billion in flood claims caused by Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. The U.S. Government Accountability Office says FEMA is unlikely to ever pay off its current $18.8 billion debt. In the future, NFIP will likely not be able to meet its interest payments and may have to borrow more to cover future flood losses. Under current law, the funds borrowed by the NFIP from the U.S. Treasury must be repaid with interest.
*Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Federal Emergency Management Agency
Enter Your Gross Annual Income to find out your shareHurricane Sandy losses may be triple those of Irene
snip
The short answer, experts say, is that there may be some insurance in place for certain losses, but beyond that taxpayers could well end up on the hook for most of it.
what's a hundred billion bucks, the Bernak can wire it to the insurance companies just as easily as he can wire it to the banks, no? So, does the bernak have many of the clan in those companies?
The Bernank can produce a trillion fiatskis in 1/1000th the time it takes me to shotgun a Coors Light.
Obama will soon announce a $100 billion program to put New York back together, vreate jobs, and build infrastructure. The press will go wild wih enthusiasm. The stock market will go up. The budget will not go up because it will be an "off-budget" item. It's a win-win for everyone.
STORM OF THE CENTURY! Think we've had 3 of them in the last 10 years.
Exactly--more of the endless hyperventilation. Why stop there? Let's just say 1 Trillion, or maybe 10 Trillion. Who the fuck cares?
This time next year when another 100 year storm hits ( the 3rd in 3 years) the deniers will be asking " why is the Iran war going so wrong?"
wake up
Wait, what?!? You mean just because every tropical storm (which is what Sandy was at landfall) is now called a "100-year storm" this proves global warming?!?
Sandy made landfall as a post-tropical storm and was easily hurricane strength.
Sandy had the barometric pressure of a strong Cat 3 to weak Cat 4 at landfall 946 mb... Since it was extra-tropical, i.e. strengthening through the baroclinic process, direct comparsions are not really valid but also calling it mere Cat 1 based on wind speed would be foolish...
The Saffir-Simpson scale is almost pointless for a storms such as this, the IKE (integrated kinetic energy) was significantly larger than a number of famous Cat 5 'canes...
In fact based on the integrated kinetic energy it was the most powerful Atlantic basin storm ever!
Let that sink in a bit....
"intergrated kinetic energy" Wow, you almost sound like a real scientist with all them high falutin terms, but what matters is the kinetic energy density (i.e. the concentrated force in a given volumn). If I integrate (that's sum up) all the wave energy on either coast at any time that would be impressive too, but meaningless in terms of damage. Stick to something you actually understand next time. The damage was entirely due to flooding, not storm strength which was highly dispersed along the entire east coast.
You clearly don't have a clue what you are talking about..
Why do you go over to WUWT and join the thread where it's claimed that Sandy is only a tropical storm and that everything should be ok...
Moron....
no fuck knob global warming is proved by the disappearing ice over the arctic _ talk to an inuit who has 20 000 years of history in the region and listen good BOHICA
does the inuit whine about it? where can i listen to this whining? do i have to visit him? or does he whine on the internet?
typical XXY
I met an Inuit family about 10 years ago, had a week to get to know them through some sad circumstances. I had an opportunity to ask them this question. They said that the winter was arriving later, the spring earlier and the snow was "different." When pressed, they didn't really have the English words to describe the difference in the nature of the snowfall and perhaps there are no words in English to sufficiently explain what they were trying to describe. But I'll take their word for it. I don't know if this is AGW and I am open to other scientific explanations for this change.
I, as well.
There's no legitimate doubt that the earth is in a warming/thaw cycle, but only doubt as to the role/weight that should be ascribed to mankind's activities versus the natural freeze-thaw cycle of the planet (mainly blamed by the "yes" camp on fossil fuel use and ozone depletion) and whether we're on an accelerated warming cycle due to such man made activities.
Caustiroid...
You should have stayed awake in the Basic Logic course...
I thought of posting something as a rebuttal and then it dawned on me that the vacuity of your post didn't merit it..
But please do read this:
Global temperature evolution 1979–2010
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/6/4/044022
Straw? Bitch that shit was a spiked fucking bat.
karma is a bitch....love Sandy ;)
those jews are a sneaky bunch.
No problem. They can print more money in a nanosecond than you can make in a lifetime.
I'm sure the Keynes are happy with this stimulus package.
http://schiffblog.blogspot.ca/
Bailouts for insurance companies!
(Pun intended)
It wasn't a hurricane, it was a flood.
Regards,
insurance company representative
It's either a flood, an act of god or falls under the "go fuck yourself" clause.
I always remember my favorite law professor: just remember this class, they're not insurance companies, they're investment companies
Have You MetLife Today?™®©
"no this wasn't caused by wind driven rain." totality of Governors, Mayors and Councilmen of the entire region. "And this isn't Pierre, South Dakota either...but the financial capital of the world."
Flooding from external sources isn't covered by homeowners policies. Business policies are another matter. If I ran an insurance company and I discovered that my underwriters had written flood coverage, they would be "bailing" from my firm.
You called it. I was watching the news tonight and they were discussing that it will generally be classified as flooding and how lots and lots of homeowners have not bought flood insurance. They said it costs about $600/yr. Who the hell lives on the coast and doesn't pay a measly $600 bucks for flood insurance? I grew up in the tropics. You always prep for this kind of storm.
I bet we bail out those who didn't buy insurance anyway.
sandys 100bn damage? don't you mean growth? that is how these things work isn't it
not really ...if you spend $50 repairing a damaged window that's money returning you back to square 1 ...further that's $50 that might have taken you to a new vista, square 2
repairing damage is never a step forward unless you're replacing an old broken hi-fi with a surround sound Cinema i suppose
this is going to be an epic waste of money, another shot in the foot for recovery as future spend is diverted to repairing caused by the ineptness of the State to address material risk to up to $2 Trillion in on the ground NY assets, not to mention the lost commerce
if anyone loses money just deduct it off your NY State tax bill for doing a shite job on sea defences
Yes, Sandra was the fault of the state. Private companies would have built 100 foot walls around the city and everyone and everything would be okay. Fucking clown.
i think you missed the sarcasm
There are "scorched earth" insurance executives running amok on ZH and junking everyone!
The funds for insurable events will come in part from overseas reinsurers. So to some extent we will fix our window with someone else's cash.
$100 Billion?..... I'll take the over, nothing is 100 Billion in the new normal. The team is used to Vaporizing Trillions.
100 Billion?..............sheesh what is that,90 days std, or 2 mos at the Fed?.
The problem isn't "climate change" (whatever that means) -- hurricanes happen. The 1940s, 50s, and early 60s saw a series of intense hurricanes that hit the mid-Atlantic coast. That coast is a lot more developed now than it was then. There's more in the way to get damaged. A major problem is that things that happen every 50 or 100 years are harder for people to plan and prepare for, than are events that happen every 10 years, say.
The best estimates for direct storm damage are in the $20-25B range, mainly because the inland damage from wind and rain was not as serious as feared.
Dude, It seems fairly obvious to me that climate change is indeed occurring. While I agree with the Eco fascists on that point, I disagree with the fact that it is man made. I also don't think paying Al Gore + Goldman money in the form of carbon credits will fix the issue of a thing called the sun going through a volatile time.
Having an outlook longer than the next financial quarter is not eco-facism. Merely wishing for one's grandchildren to have a fulfilling and comfortable life into old age is not radical.
I agree with you, it will require a fundamental change in thinking about the dismal science to address manmade climate change.
I am just musing
Business Insider was co-opted by Huffpuke a couple of years ago and is now unreadable
there are reasons for that, two of which include:
1) the retards from HuffPuke somehow learned that they would be given free reign in the comment sections and descended like mongols on to what was a an okay kind of light weight site
2) Henry the Hapless sold his soul (one of many sales) again
the comments above from Hemorrhoid and BlueRetardedOne along with many other comments on this thread remind me of the HuffPuke trailings at Business Insider that helped it to become the number one "finance" blog but also a progressive wasteland void of intelligent life, a veritable online abomination of desolation
we hope that ZH will (or has) not gone to the dark side but we fear that our hopes may be in vain
godspeed ZH, godspeed
My aren't we erudite...
Seems that combined with a case of ideological inspired ignorarance you also have anger issues...
I'd wager that you are a high risk for cancer, of the spleen more than likely...
98% of scientists agree on what is happening, only ideological whackjobs and those paid to be deniers posit otherwise...
Circa AD 1500, 100% of scientists agree Sun orbits Earth, fire is made ofphlogiston, ether fills all of space, circa 1600, Newtonian mechanics is the completion of physics, Hell is still real, the soul enters the body through special structures in the pineal gland, etc. etc. etc.
Nice strawman....
AGW is not a new theory, care to guess when it was predicted?
BTW, there were no scientists at least by any reasonable definition circa 1500 AD (sorry Galileo was circa 1600 AD and Copernicus merely plagiarzed the Greeks, his theory was not observational in nature)
Instead of throwing about flawed strawmen, why don't you make a fool of yourself and explain to us why AGW is wrong? I was going to bed but I'll stay up if you promise to be entertaining...
Or you can settle back with this nice history of C02 and climate from the American Institute of Physics and leave the heavy lifting to those of us that can:
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm
Frankly its easier to just look at the strength of the arguments on both sides of the Global Warming "controversy" by looking at the Social and Financial side: who stands to gain the most from public opinion siding with one side or the other and who has the most capital and know-how to influence public opinion.
Using this kind of Maths its very simple:
- On the side of pro-AGW you have most scientists. These people have little in the way of money and pretty much zero expertise in PR. Worse, they talk using words that most people don't understand. Even worse, they're professionally skepticals, always sprinkling their statements with caveats (it seems like; there is a high-probability; the latest theories suggest) and being professionally bound to try and disprove theories (really, the Scientific Method demands that you try and do something that breaks the theory). They're pretty much irrelevant in making public opinion. The money is in the carbon trading market, which had a size of $120 billion in 2011.
- On the side of the anti-AGW we have the Fossil Fuel industry, especially Oil. Big companies, with extensive Marketting and PR departments and such a level of political influence that effectivelly the US (and other Western) military are deployed to defend their interests. Just the oil industry has 58 companies making $100 billion a year or more.
So, does it make more sense to believe that somehow most scientists in the world got together and made a conspiracy were they influenced public opinion to create a tiny market in Carbon from which they get little or no money (only Financials really gain from it and this is a miniscule market for them) or that they actually are telling the truth (as they believe it) and that Big Oil, feeling financially threatened has used their capital, political and PR resources to try and discredit the scientific community?
Personally I believe in AGW due to having had scientific training (and thus being familiar with the Scientific Method and able to understand Scientist-talk) and because most of the information out there against AGW has a very, very high probability of being paid-for propaganda meant to sway the not-science-trained majority against measures that would combate AGW and thus keep a huge industry making vast amounts of money for a few more decades. Also most of the AGW-"skeptical" arguments boil down to logical falacies and ignorance-fueled Cognitive Dissonance ("I can't understand the other side's arguments, so they must be false") rather than logic.
Acet- perhaps your analysis is backward on the money..check out Al gores net worth and who gets gov grants..as for science talk perhaps you might re read the hocky stick charts and look for the omissions much like the penn state tree ring data...and computer models that were fudge factored to death..one last item: how much money would be collected if the carbon tax was added onto the worlds back..it's not a small number my over educated friend.
How is Al Gore's Net Worth anywhere nearly comparable to the money from Big Oil. My numbers are up there: 58 companies making more than $100 billion a year. Does Al Gore make several $trillion a year? Also look at him - the guy is a geek in a country where it's the loudmouth bullshiters that rule. I'm suprised he ever had the Candidacy. Would he be able to head a grand-conspiracy? Really!?
As for the grants bit, you haven't actually shown to me in any way that grants go to those that defend AGW. You just questioned it without a shred of evidence one way or the other. How about this statement: "grants go mostly to scientists against AGW" - there ya go, just as well substantiated as your argument. Actually considering how Government behaves in other areas, I would expect they give more money to those that say "Everything is fine and nobody has to do anything" (the anti-AGW crowd) than to those that say "Doom is upon us and Governments will have to do a lot of work to stop it" - it's the nature of men in power to side with those that defend that nothing needs changing.
As for the hockey stick, I read the numbers and the "controversy" is all bullshit resulting from an adjustment made to historical data from and Australian weather measurement site. The adjustment was done because the site physicaly changed places at some point in the 60s so the average temperature and amount of rain and wind were actually from different between locations (next to the sea its not the same as inland) and to try and make them compatible they were adjusted. Also this one set of value in a set of several thousand: it's percentual impact in the final results was meaningless.
As for the Penn State Tree ring data it actually shows that AGW theories underestimate the climate sensitivity to Carbon in the air, i.e. they show that things might actually be worse than what scientists are saying, which kinda goes against the anti-AGW crowd.
As for the Carbon Tax, well observe my numbers on Carbon Trading ($120 bln per year), miniscule next to the size of the Oil industry. Also I didn't say that a Carbon Tax is the right solution. I said I believe in AGW, not that I believe the solutions proposed by politicians (who, naturally, will use any excuse to try to increase taxes) are the right ones. Let's not confuse the validity of the scientific theories with the adequancy of government proposed "solutions" for the problem.
Last but not least, I don't actually see how it's possible to be "over-educated". Frankly, my experience is that the more I know, the more I find out how little I do know. It's the ignorant that are full of certainties and are easilly fooled by those who state things in an assured and assertive manner. Life has taught me that the more assured the speaker is the bigger the bull. Also, it's life education, not formal education, that makes me see just how the well-established interests with money and power that gain from a fossil fuel economy would have the means and the will to bend public opinion and just how easy it is the manipulate the average person.
Here we are in ZH because we think that MSM just panders to ignorance and to those who would rather we don't know best, and you accuse me of knowing too much!?
Re: the Hockey stick, in 1998 Mann et al. made a small error that was noted in the McIntyre et al attempt to discredit the paper. The error was more procedural in nature and didn't change the results a lick...However McIntyre made a couple of whoppers when they hamfistededly tried to hide the hockey stick.. For brevity, I'll skip the discussion of Principal Component analysis...
Since the original seminal paper a number of independent studies using new data (as well the old) has come out and only reinforced the original conclusion...
Like I said, the stick is now a hockey team.....
acet: Frankly," my experience is that the more I know, the more I find out how little I do know."..yep and the ablity to see a set up for taxation on the world population to solve AGW..big money your 120 bil is not tax it's GS and like co's piggy backing on ways to reduce it for co's the tax itself is much much larger in direct taxes and higher costs of energy..read the emails from england about what the main science guys were saying to each other about banning anti agw data and research getting printed and the programers who had to add the fudge factors to get an outcome (bias) my friend bias. weather changes and has a habit of some bad outcomes (ice ages)..I wish man could keep the planet warm, because an ice age is much worse than an planet that has a longer growing season to feed the expanding human race.
one example of the tax of global warming go buy a light bulb..the costs across the economy is trillions.
You have to stop simply making shit up...
Why don't you read what Hansen wrote about a Carbon tax...
Here is a unbiased sampling of what you can find out there
http://www.google.com/webhp?rls=ig#hl=en&tbo=d&rls=ig&sclient=psy-ab&q=James+Hansen+on+carbon+tax&oq=James+Hansen+on+carbon+tax&gs_l=hp.3..0i22.3452776.3465229.2.3465536.38.27.6.0.0.3.1885.17894.2-4j7j3j2j6j2j3.27.0.les%3B..0.0...1c.1.J7O5J-KZsa8&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.&fp=e9b3f0e1bb9f4248&bpcl=36601534&biw=1366&bih=592
98% of scientists study the data and reach the same conclusion...
Absoulutely unprecendented on an issue as complex as this...
The hockey stick has been validated so many differenent ways it is now a hockey team....
BTW, Why don;t you look at the Koch;s net worth and get back to me?
soot in the air causes global dimming which offsets the global warming from CO2.
Therefore, as long as we pollute the air with enough soot, we can offset the effects of global warming caused by CO2. We just need to balance the soot against the CO2.
Are you trying to be funny?
no, pollution is not funny.
Everyone talks about CO2 and global warming. I wanted to mention that soot plays a role too and with the opposite effect (global dimming, nuclear winter, etc).
As new techniques come online for removing soot, global warming will accelerate as global dimming decreases.
The one works against the other.
Fair enough...
Actually what you describe is what happened in the 70s as the S02 (which is a potent dimmer) was all but eliminated....
For a moment I thought that you were proposing Beijing air quality as a solution...
You can wish all you want, but the fact is exponential growth has finally met finite resources. Climate change is the least of your descendents' worries...
that's the beauty of the choice, you're screwed either way. Given man's brilliant history with his surroundings, I'll bet they'll both hit us hard
I have an idea. I'll write a book about the convergence of these two issues and call it "The Long Emergency"....
Do you think it will catch?
my favorite is how we're killing ourselves over a substance that is...killing ourselves
BCO,
the sun has decoupled as the leading radiative forcing about 30 years ago... C02 is now the man...
http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming.htm
There are three levels of discussion, take your pick.,...
And yes, Carbon credits are bullshit....
Please go back into your cave, "Neutrino". You certainly have no understanding of science.
Climate change is real. People can debate the extent to which it is manmade, but it is happening. Arctic Ice? Temperature records?
Like the neutrinos of your namesake, relevant information just passes right through your brain without interacting with anything, right?
The 90+ percent of scientists who predicted this were just lucky. This time. Hell, they probably created the storm for more grant money. I'm off to gas up the generator in the back of my yard while I continue to point my semi-auto at the water and tell it who's boss.
97-98% of scientists "LetThemEatRand". Of course we know they are Liberal idiots so their science can be discounted.
The grant money is feeding the liberal science hoax that Co2 is accumulating in the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels and this CO2 traps heat that otherwise would be radiated into space.
This is clearly a hoax, any fool knows that! And by god I know a whole shit load of fools who believe the science is a hoax.
Ms Rand would be proud of the deniers.
You're crazy. It's just natural fluctuation. And of course the scientists did not address this in their studies, as reported on Drudge, Fox, etc.
Another huge windfall for nyc. Good for them. :vomits:
Richard 'the Dick' Trumka is giggling like a teenager right now. Can you imagine the Union graft involved with a project this size taking place in NY? Holy shit - the days of the hundred dollar handshake are long gone. Inflation is a bitch... Welcome to the $10mm bullshit 'job' handout. With Chicago's Very Own Oblahblah and Co. writting the checks... this rebuild NYC scam will be more historic than the fucking storm.
Ness, you nailed it. I can only attempt to imagine the amount of graft and fraud that will be involved as Washington vomits our money to show Obama's love...and politicians, in general. Obama will wink and give the big thumbs up to the union contractors. The Soprano's will all buy new homes and Ferrari's. Badda Bing will need more girls.
The only infrastructure Wall Street needs is server colocation.
As LOng as Ben can print it will not affect the economy
100 billion is just a couple month of printing, so agree.
red arrow for the guy who said a storm is the black swan..
Strictly speaking, 100 bil is only about one month's deficit spending or about ten days Federal spending. It's a rounding error these days.