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Sandy Total Loss Estimate: Up To $100 Billion

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In a stunningly accurate prediction of what to expect from a 100-year storm, the following 2011 report assessing the 'risk increase to infrastructure due to a sea level rise' provides everything you did not want to know about just how bad the situation is with recovery from Sandy's damage but were afraid to ask. Based on extrapolations from storm surge heights, the authors see a 'perfect storm' of this magnitude likely creating a total loss between $50 and $100bn. As Atlantic Cities notes, citing the report: The researchers also estimate that... it could take the subway system about 21 days to get working at 90 percent functionality. If all potential damage is considered, ...that timeline could increase to several months, and that "permanent restoration of the system to the full revenue service that was previously available could take more than two years."

 

Obviously these are only predictions, but the detail and prescience of the report are stunning in their accuracy now that the 'event' has occurred. Of course, the MTA has done whatever possible to prepare - and will do everything to get this vital infrastructure back in service but with the head of MTA noting this is the worst disaster ever, we suspect the 4-5 day estimate is over-promising.

 

The vast majority of New York City’s and the MEC region’s basic infrastructure (in its narrow sense of engineered structures and systems) was built and developed between about 100 and 50 years ago. This buildup occurred during the time of largest population influx, primarily driven by immigration. Today, with about 20 Million people living, working and commuting in its 31 counties, the MEC region is home to the largest public transportation system in the US...

 

...But without a properly functioning regional public infrastructure, private “Wall Street” and other major business sectors of the region could not exist. Infrastructure systems behave like inter-dependent growing organisms. This interdependence poses risks, however. If one system fails or under-performs, others can be severely affected...

 

Here is the prediction for storm surge areas:

...Note that for worst-case scenario storms stronger than Category 2, Lower Manhattan will be split into two islands, along Canal Street; i.e. the financial district would be entirely cut off from any escape routes. Entrances to subway, road or rail tunnels or ventilation shafts will be at or below flood levels, not to speak of the building stock and other assets that are located in the flooded areas... 

 

and the prediction for the effect on the Brooklyn-Battery Tunnel

...But regardless of climate change, the increasing potential for storm-related losses due to population and asset growth is already reason enough to address those risks and look for coping and adaptation strategies...

...The Metro East Coast (MEC) infrastructure, like the infrastructure in many other large US cities with an aged inventory, has suffered for many decades from deferred maintenance. This has created a huge demand for infrastructure capital spending to restore and expand the aged systems in the MEC region and elsewhere...

 

All losses discussed here are total losses related to a given event. They include insured and uninsured losses. They include losses from coastal surge, riverine flooding and wind damage. They apply to the entire built environment, not just infrastructure or transportation infrastructure...

 

Estimated Losses $50-100bn! - based on Storm Surge extrapolations:

 


 

 

 

This is accrued loss over the next 100 years from this storm (given its probability of occurrence) - but since the storm just hit then there is no accrual! A 13-14ft Storm Surge implies a $50-100 billion total loss now!

 

And a rather scary sounding conclusion:

The problem of sea level rise that New York City and the MEC are about to face will be faced by coastal megacities and shore-bound populations all around the US coasts, in fact around the globe, in rich and poor countries alike. New York City and the surrounding MEC region could be in the unique position to muster the financial and intellectual resources, perhaps even the communal political wit and will (sic!) to set a world-class example for how to deal with such a fundamental societal / environmental issue. NYC and the surrounding MEC could do so in par with its often self-declared status as the 'financial capital' of the world. The City that never sleeps? True or not, 'mother nature' will see to it that wake-up calls will abound.

 

NYC Worst Case

 

and the author of the study produced a more recent update - focused on the future of the Brooklyn Waterfront - unbelievable...

Nyctech Brwf 02-24-2012 Redux

 

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Tue, 10/30/2012 - 20:55 | 2933245 Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture

 

Jeter breaks his foot, Yankees get swept....and now this.

The recovery mAy be in jeopardy. 

 

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:00 | 2933252 Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

Will this bring us closer to the debt ceiling any sooner?

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:00 | 2933255 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

Teh Bernank to the rescue..!

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:02 | 2933260 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

nice work...especially seeing as it was government work...of course yhose are estimates in 2011 dollars. I see trillions in our near future...

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:02 | 2933262 eeaton
eeaton's picture

I'm an insurance broker on long island and I've had many clients lapse their homeowners insurance when they stopped paying their mortgage going back two years even though they still live in the home under the "pretend and extend" doctrine. The mortgage companies did not foreclose yet they assumed liability on the property damage in my view. Whether the banks insured these homes or went naked who knows.

On the other hand they will be many homeowners months behind in their mortgage payments that have legitimate claims and when the insurance company check is cut it will include the mortgage company on the check and they will be able to recoup all the outstanding mortgage payments leaving the homeowner with massive damage and no means to pay for it.

 

 

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:11 | 2933295 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

Talk about grey area............Just send the keys to Bernake and be done with it.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:34 | 2933360 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

I suspect the mortgage company obtained HO coverage, billed the mortgagee (didn't collect) and will dispense the proceeds as they see fit.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:37 | 2933369 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Nailed it.  Bank 1, former homeowner 0.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 22:18 | 2933466 JohnG
JohnG's picture

 

 

Excellent, I've got a hater.

Bring your junks asshole, I wear them as badges of honor.

It's like working in a C-store.  You WILL be shot.  Badges of honor.

I thing that was from a Simpsons episode when my son was little.

Challenge me to debate and I will murder you.  But you are too big a pussy for that.  And you only come out at night.

I fart in your general direction.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 01:58 | 2933818 dark_matter
dark_matter's picture

I junked you. You're welcome.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 23:44 | 2933665 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

I doubt someone months behind on mortgage payments is gonna care about getting it fixed.    Just walk away from it, let the bank fight it out with the insurance company.

Someone months behind on mortgage payments has already written the house off as a loss in their mind.  Just a free place to live till they get kicked out.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:02 | 2933264 Insideher Trading
Insideher Trading's picture

Obama inherited climate change from Bush.

Obama will rectify the situation by taxing you for driving your car to work.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:23 | 2933334 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

Cumo said essentialy the same thing today as these aholes take credit for saving the world

 

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:43 | 2933377 squexx
squexx's picture

Obama and Bush?!? I thought AL Gore invented the internet AND global warming!!!!

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 09:00 | 2934121 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Bush could have killed global warming, yet, oddly enough, he played along.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 00:26 | 2933734 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

If my taxes will lower the temperature of the earth can I decide what temperature I would like it to be?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 08:58 | 2934118 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Do you get to decide which countries get bombed?

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:05 | 2933269 mvsjcl
mvsjcl's picture

100 billion x Qfinity. Another blizzard of paper coming up to create a snowy landscape that covers the real cost.

It's all bullshit.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:05 | 2933271 tennesseetrader
tennesseetrader's picture

What's the big deal?  The FED prints 100 billion every couple weeks.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:14 | 2933306 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Exactly.  Now we see the benefit of huge deficits - on 1.2 trillion / year, an extra 100 billion is like nothing.  Imagine how bad it would be though, if the deficit was only 100 billion- then this storm could have potentially caused an increase in the deficit of 100%!

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 22:13 | 2933453 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

And the money is out there sitting around with banks and insurance companies waiting to be released.  Guess what just happened -- release the [money] hounds.  The money supply in the real economy is going to jump and soon.  Got gold and siliver? 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 08:57 | 2934114 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

The actual cash for insurable events will come from reinsurance companies all over the world.  So stocks and bonds will be sold all over the world (including the US) and the resulting cash flows to the flood victims.

FedGov will cash out the uninsured items or the damage will be subject to "benign neglect".

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 09:43 | 2934215 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Well you wouldn't want those reinsurers to expose the mark-to-fantasy on their assets by forcing them to sell -- think what is on the balance sheet of entities that large . . .  they will post it as collateral and borrow from US banksters (uiltimately the Fed will print and backfill) -- just watch.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 10:35 | 2934360 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

I'm not sure how much mark to fantasy there is on casualty insurers' or reinsurers' balance sheets.  On the asset side anyway.  LOL.

However if a "collateralization" program is needed, I'm sure the FED would oblige.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:05 | 2933275 zebra
zebra's picture

looks like sp500-flagpole-30-point kind of bullish!

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:13 | 2933280 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

This is the moist bullish thing to happen since 9/11.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:19 | 2933320 zebra
zebra's picture

I think if QE fail, Ben might just nuke the NYC to save the market!

 

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:21 | 2933329 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

omg, him or israel. that is exactly what i was thinking. i'm scared. :hold me:

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:09 | 2933288 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Print my bitch Ben. I'm counting on you ;-)

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:11 | 2933291 q99x2
q99x2's picture

100 billion divided by 12 = 8.33/mo. additional QE over the next year. Bernanke's new presses can handle it. No problem. But how to get in on it; that is the question.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:19 | 2933315 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

easy ...bullish PHO .

actually i,m surprised nobody mentioned this was bullish for pms.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:11 | 2933301 fuu
fuu's picture

Page 10 is awesome.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:46 | 2933382 JohnG
JohnG's picture

LOL!

Few read those (you know this...) 58 pages plust a slide deck intimidates.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 22:02 | 2933427 fuu
fuu's picture

I mean the second pdf.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 22:25 | 2933480 JohnG
JohnG's picture

 

 

If it's the one about rapid climate change...well ok?  It's a chart?

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 23:00 | 2933570 fuu
fuu's picture

It's a totally bullish chart.

Within 80 years New York will enjoy a nice 60 degree average temperature, 50 inches of rain, and the sea level will be just about where Zone A currently is.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 23:27 | 2933638 JohnG
JohnG's picture

 

 

And Manhattan will be the new Atlantis!  Excellent!  The fuckers will just move inland.  I call encroachment.

I'll be dead (I hope. I'm 62....but pretty good shape) but my hiers will apparently inhabit the equator.  Should be great for the trees....

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 00:28 | 2933739 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Buy property in Denver!

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 00:48 | 2933757 respect the cock
respect the cock's picture

I love Denver! Everyone is happy.  The girls are hot.  And facial moisturizer is a bull industry. LONG DENVER!!!

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 05:11 | 2933887 AmCockerSpaniel
AmCockerSpaniel's picture

Be advised Denver is NOT cheep. 

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:19 | 2933318 Joke Heros
Joke Heros's picture

Well with all the billions the NY banksters pay themselves I'm sure they'll reach into their bottomless pockets and have their city built right back up in a jiffy, right?... right?

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:27 | 2933344 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

if it doesn't conflict with their golf game or demand actual sacrifice. they damn sure won't let the riff raff sleep and poop in their nice warm clean bank buildings.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:37 | 2933370 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

This would be a great opportunity for Warren Buffett and Bill Gates to put their combined $100B net worth to use, right?

Not holding breath.

 

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:53 | 2933402 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

They do good stuff health-wise for the poor abroad. If the nyc library needed computers they might do that but the usa gubbermint doesn't like competition on other charity work.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 23:04 | 2933583 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

you mean like sweat-activated vaccines, no consent necessary? 

and various other things tested in african states prior to bringing it all home to the peoples. . .

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:19 | 2933319 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

a hundred Billion BP (dogyear) dollars

Kevin Feinberg is available is offer his expertise to assist those in dire need

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:23 | 2933322 e-man
e-man's picture

Didn't the Fed lend out $16T to the banks just a few years ago?  I guess that hurricane was 160 x bigger than Sandy.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:20 | 2933323 TN Jed
TN Jed's picture

Rocky Top you'll always be, above sea-level for me.  Good old Rocky Top, schadenfreude Tennessee.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:20 | 2933324 Catullus
Catullus's picture

A $100bn storm in the Northeast is a $20bn storm in the South.

...But regardless of climate change, the increasing potential for storm-related losses due to population and asset growth is already reason enough to address those risks and look for coping and adaptation strategies...

Simple enough adaptation. The price of assets fall. Problem solved. Risk realized.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:21 | 2933326 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

The green areas will never flood... NEVAR!!!

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:21 | 2933328 Incubus
Incubus's picture

Know how the power rangers always transformed into the Mega Zord?

 

Well, the central banks can handle this.  They're going to transform into the Mega-MotherfuckingZord to tackle this financial crisis.  The fed is going to be this thing's schlong, because the fed is made for fucking things over.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:24 | 2933335 serog
serog's picture

So it looks like the cost of the storm may be in the $50 billion range. We'll always have storms, but if we didn't have all this global warming, they wouldn't be as frequent or this strong. Irene was a good example of the strength of storm 
to hit this part of the country over the last couple centuries, and only cost ~$15B. Maybe we should have invested some more money in preventing climate change so we could be paying less to cleanup the effects. 

Here's another way to look at it, if we took that $35B difference and bought solar arrays with it, we would have enough to replace ~20% of the U.S. electricity usage that comes from coal. (Here's a matlab/octave file with the math: http://pastebin.com/BapzeLie).

Obviously its too late to prevent Sandy, but how many more storms are we going to face like this...or like this year's drought? If we change now, its relatively cheap...the longer we wait, the more it will cost.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:46 | 2933383 goldenbuddha454
goldenbuddha454's picture

Ok, Nitwit SAVETHEWORLDER, there is no global warming.  Why don't you, and Draghi, and Hollande and Obama and Clinton, go save the world with your own f-ing money.  The world is broke because of people like you who have been transferring payments to the poor via welfare, EBT, U.N., IMF etc.. for 40 years now and look where its gotten us.  Here we have a federal reserve that prints money endlessly to pay debts because China has said f-you USA and your bonds that we will never see repayment for and Europe is devising new and better ways to shift the entire burden of bailing out PIIGS with German and Finnish money. Its all because of you SAVETHEWORLDERS!  You take from the solvent and give to the insolvent under the guise of "we're all in this together" bullsh&^!  We're not all in this together.  As a matter of fact, thank goodness you're up there in that northeastern college living off your grandparents trustfund hypothesizing about the world around you and you have no bearing on the life I live!

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 23:01 | 2933574 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

The life you live must be a really shitty one with that viewpoint.  Go fuck yourself!

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 23:30 | 2933642 serog
serog's picture

You are out of your element here.  Leave your unfounded personal attacks at the door.  I studied CAIT Computer Science and Aerospace engineering.  Got a job as a software engineer for Boeing out of college.  I was there for 7 years before my wife and I moved to Montero to be volunteer missionairies.  I've done all this from a poor midwestern upbringing and hard work.  

In other words, go fuck yourself. 

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:56 | 2933401 Insideher Trading
Insideher Trading's picture

Yup.

If we adopt solar arrays the climate won't change.

Totally agree. Solar arrays will eradicate hurricanes and any form of inclement weather.

This is a brilliant line of thought, thank you for introducing us to it. I never realized that the climate of planet earth over billions of years has never changed before we discovered fossil fuels.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 10:32 | 2934355 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I'd be really careful playing with matches around the strawmen you are constructing...

PS Anyone with an avatar like that must be a sexual frustrated single man living in his mom's basment....

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 22:30 | 2933490 thomasincincy
thomasincincy's picture

In a nut shell... On top of being just broke, our Government is brokEN. It's been going on for a long time...like decades. As someone here put it so eloquently, THEY FUCKED OUR COUNTRY UP

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 23:08 | 2933591 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

homework:  pick the date "they" fucked up your country.

keep looking. . . further. . . further. . .

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 23:14 | 2933602 thomasincincy
thomasincincy's picture

Just off the top of my head... Is it in the year 1913?

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 23:21 | 2933623 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

keep looking. . . further back. . .

1913 is just an episode of consolidation.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 23:26 | 2933635 thomasincincy
thomasincincy's picture

Got me interested... I'll get back with you

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 00:01 | 2933689 thomasincincy
thomasincincy's picture

Ok.. Just give me a year?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 09:41 | 2934212 fuu
fuu's picture

March 4, 1789

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 00:33 | 2933744 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

You're kidding, right? I grew up in the tropics. Let me tell you about storms and some history you obviously don't know.

On other news, archeologists were excited last year when the Norwegian glaciers had retreated to areas that had not been seen for about 3000 years. Lots of Viking artifacts were being uncovered.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:31 | 2933354 Heyoka Bianco
Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:31 | 2933356 km4
km4's picture

Hey Bloomberg can cover for $25 Billion

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Bloomberg

Net worth US$ 25 billion (2012)[2]

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 10:36 | 2934366 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Hey, how about the Koch Brothers,,,,  ~50 billion...

We would not take it all, I'd suggest leaving them a billion each as a sign of goodwill...

 

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:34 | 2933359 chump666
chump666's picture

 Stimulus my a-hole.  After a disaster an economy doesn't bounce back, cities have to pay for infrastructure, hence increased taxes - otherwise they get all out inflation and people run to the hills (note last few years people leaving Manhattan to Brooklyn - cheaper).  The Fed are insane, yes we know that, but NYC was already an inflated city - thanks to Wall Street and the NY Fed + Obama bailing out the cronies.  So, NY is in trouble.  Can't raise taxes, governments have become wimpy. NYC gets hyperinflation, people get angry.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:36 | 2933365 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

"...a total loss between $50 and $100bn..."

ha! that's but a month's worth of deficit spending - ain't nothing but a thang

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:37 | 2933368 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

think a couple of generic points are in order. First...New York Harbour is HUGE. There is no port on the East Coast like...nor as uniquely vulnerable since basically the City is for all intents and purposes "on the Ocean." Second the City did understand when it was built that flooding would occur...global warming or otherwise the basic design of the systems in place assume "water flowing into the system" since obviously "when they were designed it rained." third there is a plan...a check off list if you will...for disaster preparedness. so far from what i've seen the basic processes have worked within the City itself. The Mayor has said 7 billion in taxpayer monies will need to be spent...it is his Comptroller who is responsible for making sure every penny is spent for the desired effect. That would mean not just getting the system up an running...but getting the system up and running in such a way so when the next Hurricane hits (4 weeks from now?) it works better than the existing system which is a failure. Fourth: everyday New York City isn't working is costing the economy...and i mean the NATIONAL economy...percentage points. 4 days to a week for the Subway lines sounds "to be expected." If you're talking a month...WRONG ANSWER. fifth: this will have a dramatic impact on the housing market in the region...and in the negative. The insurance companies are not going to want to pay out claims on assets that are materially over-valued and are going to be torn down anyways. Oh, well...too bad. That's what it means to be an insurance company in the financial capital of the world. that's where the 100 billion dollar number comes in...could be 50 billion as stated here. sixth and finally: as storms go this was a nothingburger. if that is not understood then who cares what your view on global warming is.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:58 | 2933416 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Picture a ginormous public works project to pipe seawater into the vast desert in CA, AZ, NM & Mexico. 

(1) Puts hundreds of thousands to work

(2) Lowers sea level to protect coastal areas, including but not limited to East Coast & West Coast 

(3) New waterfront property in the middle of currently nothingness

(/sarc) 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 08:44 | 2934080 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Use tidal action to pump sea water into an aqueduct that carries the water from the Pacific to the Salton Sea and dumps it.

Is it nuts? Compare to high speed rail from SF to LA.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:40 | 2933375 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

If the big picture was addressed rationally, lower Manhattan would simply be abandoned.  Compare re-building to relocating.  Lower Manhattan is not needed.  Wall St. is completely computerized.  Let "failure" begin with NYC.  For the love of G-d, let it go.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 22:00 | 2933421 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

That argument would also apply to most of CA, TX and FL

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 22:14 | 2933459 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

I doubt the cost of rebuilding in CA, TX or FL would be nearly as high.  And you're just saying that to save NYC's unworthy ass.  Wherever the cost of rebuilding >>> the cost of relocation: shut it down.  Let's start with lower Manhattan.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 22:29 | 2933486 Incubus
Incubus's picture

What the fuck noteworthy has ever come out of Florida?

It's a state where people go to die, my friend. Deepsix that state.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 00:05 | 2933692 chump666
chump666's picture

lol

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 00:37 | 2933747 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Much of your winter food. Plus it is the natural habitat of the migrating northeners during winter. Can't mess with habitat.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 23:23 | 2933630 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Will a "President Romney" increase the deficit by $500 billion to bail out NYC and environs?

You bet your sweet bippy he will.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:40 | 2933376 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

So, when do all the lawsuits begin..?

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:51 | 2933399 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

Are you from Canada (j/k)?  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FEW5mh7iAI

 

They started 10 days ago when Sandy was starting to rip thru the Caribbean.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:52 | 2933390 mrmister
mrmister's picture

edit

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:57 | 2933395 mrmister
mrmister's picture

Disney to purchase NY CITY subway for $100million after Lucas film purchase of $4 Billion. Subway to become worlds longest boat ride. Characters and music.. fiberglass sharks...lasers.. little boats hold 4 passengers.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:59 | 2933415 Insideher Trading
Insideher Trading's picture

Right?

Like the 'It's a small world' ride at Disney World?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 08:37 | 2934063 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

That's some out of the box stuff, right there.  I like the cut of your jib.  Let's take a meeting on this and bottom line it.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 22:01 | 2933411 zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

Buffett and Berkshire gets buffetted tomorrow..

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 21:59 | 2933417 stiler
stiler's picture

The great "City on a Hill" of antiquity, be it Boston or New York when natives plied the waters in dug outs, the New Promised Land of the New World will go back to being the utter wilderness that it once was; the uttermost parts.

His bids the oppressed and poor repair,

And build them towns and cities there.

Where nothing dwell but beasts of prey,

or men as fierce and wild as they. ~Isaac Watts

 

and Jerusalem of the east will become the center again.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 22:02 | 2933424 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Same austerity bullshit, different day.  From sea to shing sea….

 

The President urges Congress to pass the infrastructure piece of the American Jobs Act.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/photos-and-video/video/2011/11/02/president-obama-speaks-investing-our-infrastructure

 

Proposition 30 will appear on the November, 2012 ballot and it will drastically increase taxes and give them to politicians and special interests to spend as they please.

http://www.stopprop30.com/

 

Kings of Leon - Closer

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 22:04 | 2933434 g3h
g3h's picture

Keynesian wet dream comes true.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 22:04 | 2933435 Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

It's all good! krugman style stimulus combined with cover for earnings leading to P/E expansion.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 22:29 | 2933437 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Time to tap the "Rainy days fund" LOL  This is becoming such a joke,  I can't even fake a laugh anylonger... Bloomberg was saying dial 311 for non- emergencies? How about 611 to get advice from Ms. Whitney?

 

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 22:28 | 2933476 chump666
chump666's picture

This will be the concern, the Fed never prints into infrastructure rebuilding, just the greedy banks/insurers which will 100% NOT lend into rebuilding costs. That's a guarantee.  If they do the premiums/rates will go through the roof. And natural austerity will sweep through the East Coast.

Bloomberg will be sweating blood as the 1970s just got re-visited

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/31/nyregion/31default.html?_r=0 NY c-hair away from bankruptcy 70s style

Nature just sent us a wake up call.

http://youtu.be/1WhhSBgd3KI

 

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 22:27 | 2933482 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

The whole east coast is going to see some spectacular insurance premium increases in the next few year! That is IF they can even get a policy.

The Gulf coast is already under the gun of higher rates and dropped policies. Some companies are simply bailing out of Hurricane zones. Be interesting to see their stocks come opeing of the trading day!

I admit I thought the media hype was overblowing the storm. Now I am not so sure, this sucker really did kick some ass. Once the final figures on damage and long term economic losses are in, it could be bad.

If only Romney were president we would not have to worry about taxpayers being stuck with the bill. He will turn this over to the private sector. They will do it all for us and make a profit. He is a follower of Ms Rand, she is our saviour.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 22:44 | 2933524 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Thia Storm did a number. The barrier islands did not stand a chance. I live 5 miles inland. In a bad storm the canals overflowed and thee first rows of homes got flooded. Thiss storm came 3 miles inland. The bay had waves cresting on main roads. The damage is beyond belief. Grantes once you get down to the water you have to question the intelligence of those who built there. But regardless the final tally in costs will be staggering. That's just rebuilding. take the million people on LI that had $100 in food go bad in their fridge etc and their car engine's are full of salt water. It just goes on and on.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 00:45 | 2933755 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

I feel for the familys that have been on the barrier Islands for generations. I DON'T feel for the Wall St. clones that lost anything out there. I was happy to see South Hampton and East Hampton take some wrath. You fuckers deserve it and since the sheep can't send you the messege, I was HAPPY to see mother nature did...

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 08:33 | 2934051 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

I hope Long Island sunk.  Homeowners there are fucked.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 10:41 | 2934384 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

You got to work a bit more on that compassionate consevative thingie....

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 22:36 | 2933504 wisefool
wisefool's picture

CTRL-P

 

My name is Timmay. Can I come home now?

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 22:44 | 2933525 tooriskytoinvest
tooriskytoinvest's picture

THIS IS HUGE!!! Flood Insurance Still Relatively Rare in Northeast, Standard Homeowners Policies Don’t Cover Flooding Damage!!

 

http://investmentwatchblog.com/this-is-huge-flood-insurance-still-relatively-rare-in-northeast-standard-homeowners-policies-dont-cover-flooding-damage/

 

This is what going to crash the market tomorrow!

 

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 22:52 | 2933548 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

Spot on, toorisky, and the insurance companies play this hand very well in denying claims; got flood insurance?  Oh, then the damage was from the wind (which you're not covered for).  Got windstorm insurance?  Sorry but the damage was due to the flood, and you're not covered.  And I can see the "mobile claims offices" just rolling in to the damaged areas offering 50 cents on the dollar for those they can't play these games with (who have both wind and flood coverage).  Yep, we'll give you a check TODAY for 50 cents on the dollar, otherwise, your claim may take a while (like 2 or 3 years).  Insurance is a racket like everything else in this country has devolved into.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 08:31 | 2934049 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

The insurance industry can play these games with homeowners in the South.  This is a little different audience.  Also note the differing response of FedGov versus Katrina.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 22:46 | 2933529 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

And let's talk about all those huge electrical transformers located under the sidewalks and in sub-basements all over the flooded areas.  No amount of money can replace them in a timely manner because (1) no company in the US makes them, and (2) the backlog will take years (not months) to fill.  Better add a couple of zeroes to that 100 B.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 07:09 | 2933922 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

A lot of power companies keep standard transformers in stock for storms.

But, some of the larger, spec-built devices are indeed requiring of a lead time to build and deliver.

Overall, the crews and back-up devices are already at work and on the way.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 22:48 | 2933534 tradewithdave
tradewithdave's picture

Is this the Sandy damage estimate or the Facebook damage estimate...or both?

www.tradewithdave.com

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 22:51 | 2933539 are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

I have a high paid employee stuck in Frankfort Germany because of new York airport closure. Lucky if she makes it back in 4 days. .... Thousands of such stories.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 01:35 | 2933806 dark_matter
dark_matter's picture

Hope she likes strip joints.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 19:18 | 2935985 are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

She made it back early tuesday night because of special connections, but masses are still there in Frankfort.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 22:54 | 2933555 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

As I have noted earlier:

Pretty soon weather related insurance will be prohibitively expensive or non-existent...

The re-insurance guys have figured out AGW for a while and since they can't profit it from it, you get the truth...

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/21/1054571/seminal-study-climate-change-footprint-in-north-america-the-continent-with-the-largest-increases-in-disasters

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 23:51 | 2933679 hedgehog9999
hedgehog9999's picture

Just like Credit Default Swaps, if there is no payout why have them?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 07:07 | 2933921 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

AGW is nothing but a scam by TPTB to rape us for more taxes and control where we live and what we do.

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 09:31 | 2934183 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Sure buddy, don't make the straps too tight on the tinfoil hat, you may choke yourself accidently. Then again, that might a good thing, the species will need people with strong analytic skills going forward...

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 22:56 | 2933563 Plumplechook
Plumplechook's picture

What this event tells me is that Lower Manhattan is a bust.  Either relocate or go Dutch - dykes, locks,  the whole enchilada.  No point just cleaning up the mess - next year could bring the three-peat.

That deal with the Lenape Indians back in 1626 for colored beads and whatnot ain't looking so clever now.

 

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 23:01 | 2933573 wisefool
wisefool's picture

That deal with the Lenape Indians back in 1626 for colored beads and whatnot ain't looking so clever now.

 

When the white man found america streams pure, air clean, fish and game everywhere. women did all the work and there wasn't even a word for "tax" much less a "tax code"

White man have low IQ

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 23:08 | 2933589 flaunt
flaunt's picture

This is obviously super bullish for the U.S. economy!  Think of all the jobs and GDP that will be generated!  If only we could have a hurricane every week we'd all be rich.

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 19:11 | 2935974 are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

Bullish if a smaller hurricane would stay preminantly over washington DC, well... forever.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 23:09 | 2933593 Weyland_Yutani
Weyland_Yutani's picture

Mayor Bloomberg focused on banning large soda cups. Shows that politicians always know their priorities.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 01:32 | 2933803 dark_matter
dark_matter's picture

Yea, big mistake. Bailing with a 32 oz cup would go twice as fast.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 23:09 | 2933594 are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

First New Orleans, Then New York. Maybe Hurricanes don't like Jazz or blues.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 23:10 | 2933595 Pandorable
Pandorable's picture

The truth behind the media line "we closed because we weren't sure the test electronic system could handle the volume of trading" propaganda, (read: handle the mass panic sell-off), is that exchanges closed to stem the panic selling and allow big boys to reposition. In the meantime, we need this FEMA bill like we need another Bernanke in the head.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 23:17 | 2933613 insidious
insidious's picture

Obama - call Benny and the Ink Jets. Give the order to start the printing. What's that you say, the printers are under water? Dam. OK then. Revert back to the bit fiddling computer thing where you just make money appear in folks accounts out of thin air but this time make it appear in states, cities and lowly individuals accounts. What's that Benny? You're not creating money out of nothing unless it's not for your banking buddies? Dam. Seemed like an easy way out of this mess?

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 23:20 | 2933620 goldsansstandard
goldsansstandard's picture

House flooded. Commercial property flooded. Now doubly underwater on both. Just mail the keys to Maiden Lane and let the NYFed Mortgage Co. deal with it.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 23:23 | 2933629 dolph9
dolph9's picture

Nature just handed Obama the presidency on a (tainted) silver platter.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 23:32 | 2933647 hedgehog9999
hedgehog9999's picture

There are things money can't fix......the best analogy is "you can't have a baby in a month by making 9 women pregnant"

No matter how much money they throw at the problem, it will take a good couple of years to re-do and fix the infrastrucuture with the resulting slow down for many industries.

It took several years for New Orleans and we are not done there as far as I know.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 23:32 | 2933648 Lewshine
Lewshine's picture

Only the Wall Street retards on the financial news channels could possibly come up with HOW this disaster will spark a new recovery of growth for the US economy. Given their wisdom and brilliance we should nuke the world in order to rebuild it again, therefore a SUPER NOVA OF GROWTH could hardly be helped. FAWKIN MORONS!!! LOSS that spurs growth = an expotential LOSS!

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 23:46 | 2933668 hedgehog9999
hedgehog9999's picture

Real Estate will be worth shit in the whole area.

They should move parts of the city or the whole city to higher ground. And by the way that appplies to many coastal cities that are vulnerable. NO comes to mind but there are  many others.....

 

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 00:14 | 2933710 chump666
chump666's picture

yes, economic risk aside thanks to obama backstop madness, a natural disaster event risk.  that is a game changer, even for the money shifters. 

after effects are going to be significant. 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 00:15 | 2933703 chump666
chump666's picture

Some loon on Marketwtach just added to the "stimulus" good-for-all argument from Sandy.

Um, yeah Japan is a f*cking write-off from their nuclear meltdown and the idiots are still spending into a black-hole.

Anyways will wtach is liquidity tightens into Nov, be a good indication if insures are shutting up shop and banks won't lend to disaster risk for the poor suckers out there.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 00:12 | 2933705 AustriAnnie
Wed, 10/31/2012 - 00:17 | 2933716 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Be happy with what you've got. This is 2012 after all.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 00:28 | 2933736 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Some more commentary on Sandy from a professional:

Watching Sandy morph into Frankenstorm… I find both the event, and the name unsettling. The hurricane held together and even strengthened as it came up the east coast, due to warmer seawater in her path compared to historical norm. Couple this climate change effect with the stationary HP stuck over Baffin Bay that continues to impede and cause the downward Rossby wave in the weakened jet stream over the North American continent, pushing cold Arctic air down into the mid-latitudes. The large Rossby wave loop, and the blocked jet stream are likely caused by the loss of Arctic sea ice.

 

The same stationary HP system and blocked jet stream causes Sandy, with lowest pressure (940 mbars) to ever get to this latitude this late in the season, to veer toward the Northwest. Frankenstorm is a great name, because man helped create this storm.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 00:42 | 2933752 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

I don't give a fuck who you are...

"Oh, crap! Was That TODAY?"

makes me miss George Carlin.

<sniffle>

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 01:04 | 2933768 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

No mention of HAARP...????

Thats odd.....

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 01:20 | 2933789 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

HAARP pulled this bitch in... Now we have a NYSE "Holiday" for 3 days while the Algos readjust themselves? Fuck you

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 01:26 | 2933797 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Lot of HAARP whackadoos out tonight...

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 01:22 | 2933790 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Why?

Do you have any idea what the energy of Sandy was expressed in Little Boy units was (i.e. the Hiroshima nuclear device)?

You think a pissant little antenna array could do that?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 01:07 | 2933771 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

No mention of Barium and Chemtrail jets...??? And their aresol geoengineering...????

They missed all the key issues with our weather conditions....

Own the weather in 2025

check it out.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 01:09 | 2933773 Sopra Tutt1
Sopra Tutt1's picture

Prof. Krugman: See, this really works! Now we need to figure it out how to make it a monthly event.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 01:29 | 2933796 newengland
newengland's picture

 

Perhaps Hurricane Sandy did a good thing by hastening the exposure of two-faced politicians in NYC, DC and New Jersey in particular. How will their politicians explain that they took the taxpayer money to buy votes and pay off substandard contractors for decades instead of maintain important infrastructure?

There is no more money. Zilch. Gone. The parrot is deceased, dead.

So is the gold, by the way. 

This is the 21st century, a coming of age, time to grow up, and stop whining for Big Brother and Nanny State.

Oil slicks in underground car parks with floating car bombs by subway stations beneath NYC skyscrapers - think about that and no wonder the police and fire services are worried.

The worst is yet to come for ordinary people. The politicians and banksters -aided by main scream media - will make their excuses, and leave.

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 01:30 | 2933801 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Lotta anger...

Do you always make shit up?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 01:44 | 2933802 newengland
newengland's picture

Do you always deny reality? 

The upturned cars on oil slicks in car parks in NYC are like floating time bombs. Not your problem. A problem for the police and fire services.

NYC bureaucrats and politicians were warned that the 5 foot sea defense wall in Manhattan was inadequate, and other things were too.

No matter for fans of politics, like you. More than a hundred houses burnt to the ground ... millions without heat or safe drinking water...millions to go without a week's wage or more.

Party on, dude. Not your problem.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 02:29 | 2933840 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

Right, not our problem.

Anyone dumb enough to live 10 feet above sea level deserves what comes.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 10:16 | 2934315 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yep, sure thing....

So you would have voted Yea to raising taxes to fund a higher seawall for NYC??

Moreover, all the warnings came from people that understand AGW and rising sea levels  and we *know* that would be a  conspriracy to line contractors pockets with cash...

You fucking oppurtunistic hypocrite...

BTW, you had better make that sea wall about 30 ft higher....

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 01:33 | 2933805 chump666
chump666's picture

*Fed Kocherlakota - Strongly disagrees with view Fed policy too easy,   low inflation-high unemployment suggests policy may be too tight, jobless   could fall to 5-6% without pushing inflation above 2% - Reuters.

Wheel out the guillotine.


Wed, 10/31/2012 - 02:25 | 2933836 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

without pushing inflation above 20%.

Fixed it. 

He just left off a zero, small mistake anyone could make.

...and no, QE doesn't help employment one bit.  Giving cash to Wall Street doesn't help employment across America.  Maybe it does right there in Manhattan.   More Bentley salespeople, high-end restaurants, hookers, things like that.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 02:23 | 2933838 “Rebellion to t...
“Rebellion to tyranny is obedience to God.”-ThomasJefferson's picture

100 Billion???  Just have Jamie Dimon, Bruno "whale" Iksil,  and his London office make some magic happen....

Enlist the help of the honorable former Governor, the esteemed former US Senator, Jon Corzine, to cook up a winning position in the derivatives market.....

Surely we can find some patriot who will help us make this 100 billion seem manageable!  Right???????

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 02:53 | 2933846 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

has anyone heard how much money  goldman is contributing to the cleanup of new york city?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 05:41 | 2933897 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Sure you think they will. They will bet against the rebuild. Doing Gods work, more money for GS and less for the sheeples.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 03:44 | 2933861 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Free market insurance reality would steer people away from building in inappropriate areas .... over and over again !  Government meddling increases the scope of the disaster and encourages building in the very wetlands other government meddlers want to protect ?       All natural disasters should be named after celebrated Keynesian economists .... for the economic stimulus generated ?     Let the free market work for people is saying .... let people work for people !  Prosperity is a given .... when it's freedom driven !    All gov < 10% GNP !  That's a good place to start !    Freedom is people friendly !    Kumbaya socialists fuck off and die so the rest of us can soar like eagles !  Freedom is the wind beneath our wings .... socialism is the bird shit on our windshields !

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 05:40 | 2933895 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Meanwhile - Sandra Fluke

 

Sandra Fluke: Free birth control will help career women, candidates shed ‘barriers’ of unwanted children [VIDEO]

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/28/sandra-fluke-free-birth-control-will-h...

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