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Sandy Total Loss Estimate: Up To $100 Billion
In a stunningly accurate prediction of what to expect from a 100-year storm, the following 2011 report assessing the 'risk increase to infrastructure due to a sea level rise' provides everything you did not want to know about just how bad the situation is with recovery from Sandy's damage but were afraid to ask. Based on extrapolations from storm surge heights, the authors see a 'perfect storm' of this magnitude likely creating a total loss between $50 and $100bn. As Atlantic Cities notes, citing the report: The researchers also estimate that... it could take the subway system about 21 days to get working at 90 percent functionality. If all potential damage is considered, ...that timeline could increase to several months, and that "permanent restoration of the system to the full revenue service that was previously available could take more than two years."
Obviously these are only predictions, but the detail and prescience of the report are stunning in their accuracy now that the 'event' has occurred. Of course, the MTA has done whatever possible to prepare - and will do everything to get this vital infrastructure back in service but with the head of MTA noting this is the worst disaster ever, we suspect the 4-5 day estimate is over-promising.
The vast majority of New York City’s and the MEC region’s basic infrastructure (in its narrow sense of engineered structures and systems) was built and developed between about 100 and 50 years ago. This buildup occurred during the time of largest population influx, primarily driven by immigration. Today, with about 20 Million people living, working and commuting in its 31 counties, the MEC region is home to the largest public transportation system in the US...
...But without a properly functioning regional public infrastructure, private “Wall Street” and other major business sectors of the region could not exist. Infrastructure systems behave like inter-dependent growing organisms. This interdependence poses risks, however. If one system fails or under-performs, others can be severely affected...
Here is the prediction for storm surge areas:
...Note that for worst-case scenario storms stronger than Category 2, Lower Manhattan will be split into two islands, along Canal Street; i.e. the financial district would be entirely cut off from any escape routes. Entrances to subway, road or rail tunnels or ventilation shafts will be at or below flood levels, not to speak of the building stock and other assets that are located in the flooded areas...
and the prediction for the effect on the Brooklyn-Battery Tunnel
...But regardless of climate change, the increasing potential for storm-related losses due to population and asset growth is already reason enough to address those risks and look for coping and adaptation strategies...
...The Metro East Coast (MEC) infrastructure, like the infrastructure in many other large US cities with an aged inventory, has suffered for many decades from deferred maintenance. This has created a huge demand for infrastructure capital spending to restore and expand the aged systems in the MEC region and elsewhere...
All losses discussed here are total losses related to a given event. They include insured and uninsured losses. They include losses from coastal surge, riverine flooding and wind damage. They apply to the entire built environment, not just infrastructure or transportation infrastructure...
Estimated Losses $50-100bn! - based on Storm Surge extrapolations:
This is accrued loss over the next 100 years from this storm (given its probability of occurrence) - but since the storm just hit then there is no accrual! A 13-14ft Storm Surge implies a $50-100 billion total loss now!
And a rather scary sounding conclusion:
The problem of sea level rise that New York City and the MEC are about to face will be faced by coastal megacities and shore-bound populations all around the US coasts, in fact around the globe, in rich and poor countries alike. New York City and the surrounding MEC region could be in the unique position to muster the financial and intellectual resources, perhaps even the communal political wit and will (sic!) to set a world-class example for how to deal with such a fundamental societal / environmental issue. NYC and the surrounding MEC could do so in par with its often self-declared status as the 'financial capital' of the world. The City that never sleeps? True or not, 'mother nature' will see to it that wake-up calls will abound.
and the author of the study produced a more recent update - focused on the future of the Brooklyn Waterfront - unbelievable...
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Birth control costs what exactly? $10 per month? "Career women" cannot plan for this expense?
Ah, we can now add ill-informed misogynist to your list of attributes....
Keeping just one unwanted child out judicial system pays for tens of thousands of womens birth control over their lifetimes..
You're too ignorant to even grasp that...
As for the $10 figure you pulled out of your ass:
http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/alpha-consumer/2012/03/05/the-real-cost-of-birth-control
I don't converse with ignorant people.
How much of a decline in GDP is that? John Hussman, PhD. says that a minimum of -1.5% GDP is in the cards. He'll no doubt recalculate next Monday when he releases his latest economic review on his website.
Despite that Wall St now believes that all is well and that the Sandy destruction is a boon, and the Pollyanna Party continues, but it spells just more debt, more deficits, and more malaise to me. It won't be until early 2013 when the true cost is calculated, and the cost will ultimately constitute catastrophe.
Check mate. By the time the political system takes control this will be cost overrun and sheeples will be fucked. Welcome to Amerika. Depression bitchezz in East Coast. Glad to have moved out that dump hole. will never visit that crappy place ever.
I LOVED the dinosaur cartoon! Thanks!
But I'm wondering if we're all on land, and still thinking that we were on the ark!
Is it too late to get our beads back?
Did that storm bring with it a perminate sea level rise too? Bad, bad storm.
Uh no,
A) Subways will be up and running at probably at least 80% of service come Monday Nov 5
B) 9/11 was worse and there was no lasting damage to the economy (things actually boomed in the area from 2002-2007)
It isn't as bad as ZH, Business Insider and other media outlets are making it.
9/11 was worse???
Well, I suppose in a macro sense because it gave the Neo-cons an excuse to start 2 wars in Asia that cost ~$1.5 trillion and went a long way to bankrupting this country.... But tI don;t think you were implying this...
Do you actually think before you post?
When the barriers are down
And the signals are flashing
And the whistle is blowing in vain
But you stay on the tracks
Ignoring the facts
Well, you can’t blame the wreck on the train (in this case rain would be a good switch
By Don McLean
Hey Jimmy, I think it's time to make a move inland given the circumstances.
seems a devine intervention sent sandy to our power centers of NYC and down to DC hitting the camp of the liberal big gov elite..just wondering if the message got sent?? in china the people would see this as a bad omen for the leaders...but those peasents are just stupid no?
How's that "Green Energy" plan workin out for ya? All under the guise of "it will be good for the taxpayers". Well, I guess if wasting my tax money on your fu$%ed-up projects is a good thing, then I guess you succeeded. Go spend your own f-ing money on your own projects and we'll see how happy you are to be paying taxes into that giant black holecalled government investing. http://thesteadydrip.blogspot.com/2012/10/complete-list-of-green-energy-failures.html
How many thousands of flooded cars are there in the underground garages?
Coverage from your auto policy? Yes. Did the insurance companies see that coming? No. LOL. That's going to hurt.
Fuck them.
Auto insurance policy will cover that. Insurers are going to cave and pay out whatever is claimed and look to the federal gov't for reimbursement.
Bottom line: more massive government borrowing to finance all the damages, more massive money printing to "payback" all the massive borrowing.
Buy gold, keep stacking, bitchez!
Compare Sandy to Katrina. Black folks on the high ground this time.
Stay dry, peeps.
You and Trav have a lot more in common than I thought....
Wow, $100 billion...just about the annual cost of DHS.
Show me the money.