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The Schrodinger (Non) Market Gets Extra-Schizophrenic

Tyler Durden's picture





 

With US equity markets closed for the second day in a row, we remain at the whim of either wishful-thinkers on TV or pragmatic realists looking at other markets for clues. Guessing at tomorrow's cash open (or this evening's futures open) is a coin-toss. Gold's move today implies stocks open down around 1%; Treasury Futures imply stocks open down very modestly; the Canadian equity market indicates stocks open up around 1%; and EURUSD (and EURJPY) suggest equities open down slightly from this morning's closing level of 1411.25. So take your pick - up 1%, down 1%, or unch? Or all at the same time as the algos go full Baumgartner. S&P 500 futures will re-open at 1800ET.

Gold suggests that S&P 500 futures limped lower all day - ending back below 1400...

 

But Oh Canada suggests S&P 500 opens up around 1%! (though we will have to se if the last minute ramp or dump occurs to reset things to normality)... This is a 2% rally off ES lows yesterday!!!

 

and EURUSD (and EURJPY) suggests S&P 500 futures limped lower after a modest pick up into Europe's close...

 

and Treasury Futures suggest a modest decline in S&P 500 futures also...

 

 

So - for the S&P.. Gold says big down, Treasuries small down, FX small down; and (drum roll please) Canada says big up...

Charts: Bloomberg

 


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Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:18 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

Yeah but all those NY Fed employees haven't been able to goose stocks for days, and still harbor resentment that Kevin got to have all the fun on Friday. That's a massive case of bankercrat blueballs, so tomorrow I expect we'll see a climax of "monitoring."

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 17:22 | Link to Comment The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Bullish.  We're heading into an election, end of year, etc.  We have QE, dollar is heading down.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:18 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

too much logic and thinking for these wind blown black markets.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:44 | Link to Comment WarPony
WarPony's picture

we'll see in the last three days of the week ...W(ednesday)T(hursday)F(riday)

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:19 | Link to Comment The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

It all depends on whether the algos are given any slack. With them at the helm, it only ever goes up.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:58 | Link to Comment I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

Canada is the USA's slightly brain damaged alcoholic cousin that took too many high-sticks to the head. 

Hey ... hoser, take off!

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:46 | Link to Comment ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Ty's right... Forget Schrodinger's Cat we have a new critter called a Schrodinger's Market here.

Is it alive or is it dead? Quantum theory says both but then again it really depends on the observer.

One thing cannot be argued however... namely that there is enough hydrocyanic acid out there to kill every 'investor'.

Place your bets accordingly and have a nice day...

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:21 | Link to Comment daz
daz's picture

ohhh correlations... IT'S A TRAP!

 

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:25 | Link to Comment JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

What market?  There is no market - just the whims of the Fed.

It is just a matter of time before the Fed starts buying equities openly as they do in Japan.

Never short a manipulated "market."

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 17:15 | Link to Comment zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

World should grasp the notion that its OK to live without Wall street.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:26 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

Good luck to all NYSE employees trying to get to work tomorrow. Remember to share cabs. You never know who could be sitting next to you. Bring your own lunches as restaurants and stores will either be closed or overwhelmed. Bring your own toilet paper as the janitors will be unable to make it into town without mass transit.

Half the city is out of power including the Financial District and they're expecting to resume a full working day on the exchanges and the brokerages, investment banks etc in that area. Call me stupid if you will but I think that is complete bullshit.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:39 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It's not only stupid, it's impossible. Schools care closed and daycare's are closed. So parents are stuck. My wife's job is open tomorrow. They can go fk themselves. In about 2 more days of this I will have to stay home just to keep an eye on looters...and I live in a pretty good area. See my post below.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 17:10 | Link to Comment ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

In a disturbing development looters are beginning to organise in the Twitterverse...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/30/hurricane-sandy-looters-broadca...

Accordingly authorities will be shutting off all power to New York and wait for the batteries to die just to be on the safe side.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:28 | Link to Comment Bastiat
Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:31 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Found my boat...

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:43 | Link to Comment Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

But I bet the gold is gone . . .

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 17:19 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

It's the darnest thing.

oh, and silver...not gold.  I dont plan on being wealthy, I plan on being really fucking wealthy.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:48 | Link to Comment helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

That poor deer. Got caugt in the surge.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:29 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

<-----The Cat in the box comes out tomorrow

<-----The Cat in the box hasnt come out because it died in the Hurricane.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:31 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

We should discount the Canadian equities because, as ZeroHedge pointed out earier, the algos had to go somewhere.

I think the tell will be the market reaction to the Australian building numbers later this evening.  It could really set the ball rolling downhill quickly if they come in bad, as they are priced to perfection vis-a-vis the Australian dollar.

:D

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:38 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

King dollar! Because Bernanke loves us and wants us to be happy!

:)

But really how can anything be priced to perfection if fiat has zero intrinsic value?

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:58 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Makes one wonder what this is about:

The UK was to release consumer confidence later tonight, about 8:00pm Eastern but the number was somehow leaked to the press before-hand.  I haven't heard of that before coming from Britain and I've never heard it being printed beforehand by the press.  The expected number is -28, same as last month.

From ForexFactory:

"Data leaked 11 hours earlier than the scheduled release time listed. The ‘Actual’ of -30 is being reported in brackets to denote that it’s a press leak and has not been confirmed by the official source. This number may change upon release by the official source."

What is up with releasing a bad number way beforehand?  Are they trying to prime the pump or deflect the impact of bad news?

This is just getting weirder all the time.

:/

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 17:08 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Agreed.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 17:19 | Link to Comment Haager
Haager's picture

Didn't Mervyn King said something about more easing when the numbers are bad? So it's priming the pump...

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:31 | Link to Comment VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

ignore gold i mean WTF its not trading freely. its trading even less freely than anything else i mean.. what do i mean? who are you? what am i doing here aghgghhh

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:44 | Link to Comment viahj
viahj's picture

Barmaid, Whiskey STAT for this man!

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:45 | Link to Comment vix is for kids
vix is for kids's picture

Why do so many here claim that gold and silver don't trade freely?  Their decade-long bull markets fit all of the parameters of any bull market in the number of up versus down days, the price variation per day, the support at long term moving averages, etc.  I guarantee you, if gold, or any other market, only moved in one direction every day, that would be the sign of manipulation.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 17:17 | Link to Comment VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

although i do agree with many of your statements. moving avg etc. im afraid the main thrust of your argument is claptrap. and if you think gold is correctly priced here.. then you are what is refered to as a "dimp" yes, thats right.

thanks for the whisky

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 17:35 | Link to Comment YC2
YC2's picture

thanks for um....

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:34 | Link to Comment Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

FORT KNOX HOLDS NO GOLD! Central Banks hold a fraction of what they show on the books as gold holdings. Tell a friend.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 17:07 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Nobody cares.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 18:04 | Link to Comment Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

They will..........lmao.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:35 | Link to Comment Donlast
Donlast's picture

I kid you not, this is the heading on an article in today's FT:

Draghi's resolve is the ECB's sharpest tool

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:51 | Link to Comment vix is for kids
vix is for kids's picture

Draghi is an ECB tool, alright. 

 

And, on it's relative scale, he could indeed be it's sharpest.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:37 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

OT but it's getting ugly on Long Island. Very few people have power. Gas stations are all shut down. I saw a few people smashing the ATM machine's with their fists because they were all down. I am at a friends house who has power. It's going to be weeks before most areas get power back. This is probably just a dry run but it shows me that all the cash in the world and all the gold is useless once your fridge is room temperature and you have no gas left and the store's are closed. I used to think I would stay put and stick it out but if I ever think there is a situation that would cause this again, especially on a long term basis. I am f'n outta here.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:41 | Link to Comment realtick
realtick's picture

Very well said. Good luck, brother.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:46 | Link to Comment viahj
viahj's picture

don't be like GS and advertise your possession of power to the masses.  the rovers could notice and take interest.  they will be out and about tonight.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 17:10 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

Do you have power?

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 17:33 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I have no power. At a frends place. Sending my wife and daughter away tomorrow if no power back. Already spoke to two neighbors that have guns (many). We will start a neighborhood watch prob tomorrow night. I am not fkin around. If I see someone near my house they get one chance to identify themselves. Then it's over. I am an insomniac and am less than cordial late at night.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 18:42 | Link to Comment The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

Family in Staten Island in same "boat".

They lost damn near everything they've worked for and he almost lost his life last night to a wall of water.

Community is where it's at. 

I'd start that watch right about sunset.

Whether you believe or not, God Bless and Godspeed.

 

 

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:38 | Link to Comment PUD
PUD's picture

A good part of the worlds woes can be traced back to the moment every micro tic in the market was bet on. What once had the facade of a capital market has been reduced to a greyhound trifecta.

Bloomberg counting down to the futures open, calling forth soothsayers and guessing like a drunk with a racing program determined to win back his losses

"Investors"!!!

lol

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:40 | Link to Comment zebra
zebra's picture

the robots are short-circuited due to the flood.

 

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:49 | Link to Comment ZFiNX
ZFiNX's picture

LMAO why'd he say "EXTRA". Thought only So Cal people used that slang.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 16:55 | Link to Comment helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

There will be selling in droves. Remember Apple was in the process of taking a shit last week and go under $600/share? All those, 240, hedge funds sitting on Apple.

Anyone? 

Buellar?

I say a massive sell off in Apple which means massive plunge in SnP.

Come on people!!!! It was only last Friday and how soon you forget!

So Cramer will come on tonight and tell you to buy Home Depot? Give me a break.

game over.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 18:26 | Link to Comment Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

I think a wait and see approach might be best. The hurricane has Keynesian momo retard bulls all amped up. Wait for the rally to fizz out and then short the shit out of it.

Then again, if we open gap down, time to bring the pain.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 17:01 | Link to Comment Being Free
Being Free's picture

take your pick - up 1%, down 1%, or unch

I"M NOT FUCKING VOTING FOR ANY OF THESE BASTARDS!

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 17:03 | Link to Comment GoldbugVariation
GoldbugVariation's picture

"Out of hours" prices for the main US index futures have been quoted in London and other markets all day on Monday and Tuesday - the same as happens on specific US public holidays when the US markets are closed but European markets open.

Dow future dipped to a low of 12990 overnight on Monday, then lifted by China and Japan, currently 13111.5 so just 4 points down from Friday's close.

S&P 500 future similar pattern, low at 1398.3, currently at 1414.5, so actually up 1.9 points from Fiday.

Tech 100 future similar pattern again, currently at 2654.5.

To me the charts are currently looking a bit toppy and like there might be falls from 18:00 ET this evening.  I would definitely expect the "out of hours" lows to be re-tested before the week is finished, because market bottoms are not usually formed on the low volume that you get out of hours.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 17:07 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

Today's QE-whatever in Japan looked pretty funny over here:

http://blog.quantsig.net/2012/10/30/yen-crosses/

Also, 1402 for the S&P.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 17:10 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Gold's moves imply nothing.  They don't even imply a price of gold.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 17:21 | Link to Comment VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

well said sir

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 17:25 | Link to Comment Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Charts, BITCHEZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 18:51 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Relief rally.  Futures priced in the storm and chaos.

Gaps down then rallies into the close. 

Wall Street resumes it's profit taking end month.

Bernanke makes me want to vomit.

Tue, 10/30/2012 - 20:59 | Link to Comment This is the end
This is the end's picture

You are funny Tyler, you keep mocking the Fed and they mock you right back. You think the Fed is going to let this market fall? Better luck betting on Japan's bond market imploding. They are twenty years ahead of us in QE science. They have a 237.1213456764% debt-to-GDP. We have a long way to go before this movie ends. It is still the opening credits unfortunately.

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