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2 Refineries, 3 Nuclear Sites, And 6.25 Million Residents Still Dark

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The US Department of Energy has just released their latest storm damage report for Sandy and it does not make for good reading. Over 50% of New Jersey residents remain without electricity and almost 2 million people in New York state alone. Port Reading (Hess) and Linden (Phillips) refineries remain shutdown (about 308,000 barrels per day or 26% capacity offline), and 3 nuclear sites (Salem, Indian Point, and Nine Mile Point) remain offline and many of the others are at dramatically lowered output (only 52% of capacity online!). Not good...

 

2012_SitRep6_Sandy_10312012_1000AM

 

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Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:22 | 2934535 PUD
PUD's picture

Spanish dumptsers at full capacity though the lines are long.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:40 | 2935257 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

let them have light!

 

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:22 | 2934537 Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

Welcome to the land of pre-historic above ground powerlines...

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:26 | 2934551 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Anchored into the ground by half century old dead pine logs. What could go wrong ?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:39 | 2934609 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Surrounded by canopies of "old'growth" maples and other behemoth trees with 10' diameter trunks and woodpecker-heaven dead limbs dangling all around.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:04 | 2934697 CunnyFunt
CunnyFunt's picture

Pine? Try cedar.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:13 | 2934756 pemdas
pemdas's picture

But Wall Street is open, so everything is OK, right?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:10 | 2935134 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

nope, that part of New York was declared stone cold dead in 2008 ...what you see now is merely going-through-the-motions zombie banks, the pretence they're still alive and kicking, with Dr Bernankenstein flicking QE switches to make his zombie corpses look live

Blankfein & Dimon are the walking dead, but it's amazing what sending trillions of electronic 10001000010001 down a telephone line can do to make you think they're really still in business

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:43 | 2935267 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

money never sleeps....someone's printing somewhere...

 

Bank of Japan Announces Fresh Economic Stimulus

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/31/business/global/bank-of-japan-announce...

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 19:20 | 2935992 StychoKiller
Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:35 | 2934586 mckee
mckee's picture

That's a great idea! Spend $200 billion putting power lines underground to prevent a couple hundred million in lost electricity costs! And with that you get the added benefit that when an underground line is compromised your outage is 3 weeks instead of 2 days!

You must be in government?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:40 | 2934614 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Look on the bright side.  Peak oil has been set back a couple of days to April 23, 2130.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:47 | 2934648 Manthong
Manthong's picture

On the other hand, we do have that important little bit of extra emergency refining capacity built up over the last few decades.

Oh, wait a miniute..

http://washingtonexaminer.com/examiner-editorial-gas-prices-soar-for-lack-of-new-refineries-and-pipelines/article/2510786

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:15 | 2934765 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

You realize that the business plan was to import gasoline from european refiners operating at a loss.... I guess it is time for plan B).....

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:51 | 2934660 mckee
mckee's picture
i·ro·ny/??r?n?/   Noun: Getting negative feedback on Zero Hedge for pointing out economic fallacy and identifing associated unintended consequences.
Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:19 | 2934778 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

that sounds very shovel ready

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:43 | 2934872 walküre
walküre's picture

Europe has everything underground and they don't have loss of power. Private enterprise made the decision eons ago in Europe to build to last.

In that regard, America is and always will be 2nd class. Our infrastructure is CRAP and sub-standard compared to Asia and Europe.

But lights at Golden Sucks never go out. That should give you a clue about the nation we live in.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:13 | 2934980 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yeah, those fucking socialists are always trying to make everyone else look bad....

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:18 | 2934996 mckee
mckee's picture

Europe only has about 50% of what they consider low/medium voltage lines underground and less than 5% of what is considered high voltage (only 356kv) is underground. They have the advantage of closer proximity to power sources  because of less "not in my backyard" opposition and less geography which mean lower voltages are required. The reactive power swings you would get from a 765kv underground line would be almost impossible to control and good luck burying one accross 500 miles of mountain (if you could get environmental approval to begin with).

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:21 | 2935007 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

One thing from personal experience, the poles are cast concrete not pine logs... A unintended benefit of having cut just about every fucking tree down in the past....

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 19:48 | 2936049 walküre
walküre's picture

The totem pole power grid in most American suburbs is garbage. That could all be underground decades ago. The overland lines are typically never affected from winds and broken trees because the power cos. cut all forest back 30 feet or more from the steel towers. Same in Europe. But where it matters is the delivery to the residential or commercial end consumer. That always fails as soon as winds pick up a bit. Stupid planning. 2nd world, 2nd rate, 2nd class. Now NY is jammed in traffic because everyone is driving their cars to get in/out of the city.

GOD FORBID the city would have had an emergency schedule and shut down all non-essential (retail for example) businesses. At least the markets are open. The all important markets. For heaven's sake, could the fucking bankers not have allowed a week off with pay to their employees to figure out how to cope with the disaster.

I'm so fucking disgusted at the mismanagement and the hubris of this country. We're worse than fucking China.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 21:36 | 2936374 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

it's just a grab fest once the pinata explodes

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 18:26 | 2935868 dugorama
dugorama's picture

this is all about short term thinking and not investing for the future.  if you're looking for a project for the new WPA / CCC, here's an idea.

actually the power line repair crews have to come out to the average city block, once a year due to storm damage.  and the buried lines need repair approximately never.  furthermore, the tree trimming crews come by once every other year and are exposed to very dangerous working conditions - almost 100 deaths / year (http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5815a2.htm)

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:25 | 2934545 Jason T
Jason T's picture

ZH is the best for news ..screened relevent news.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:04 | 2934557 Sheikh Djibouti
Sheikh Djibouti's picture

Scientists: Link between climate change and cyclones obscured by fog from melting glaciers

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:25 | 2934779 Real Estate Geek
Real Estate Geek's picture

Factoids like that would probably have more impact if they were expressed in Mandarin. 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:37 | 2934845 Sheikh Djibouti
Sheikh Djibouti's picture

Think tank: More flies caught with honey than with vinegar

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:08 | 2934728 Silver Garbage Man
Silver Garbage Man's picture

Yes, I wish they would pound the table a little harder on gold and silver manipulation (suppression)and the related consequences.
Otherwise it is a TOP KNOTCH site!

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:26 | 2934550 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That sucks...there are going to be some cold nights for people.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:40 | 2934615 Jason T
Jason T's picture

We made the investment of a wood burning stove last year.. $3000 .. got it going right now about 5 ft behind me.. wood cost the same as last year .. $950 for 5 full cords delivered.  (that's a lot of wood) 

still have power but if didn't, this would be a life saver potentially..literally.

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:52 | 2934663 john39
john39's picture

UN agenda 21 would likely outlaw that stove, you know, to save the planet from global warming...  nothing to do with rendering the people powerless.  trust us- NWO.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:54 | 2934670 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That's good to hear. I hope that there are more people out there who are in as good a shape. I fear there are going to be a lot of miserable people over the next few days and possibly weeks.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:30 | 2934825 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It's cold windy and rainy by me. Trees still stuck on power lines, no signs of work being done. Everyone is trying to pile in to whatever restaurants that are open because no one has power or the ability to refridgerate/warm up any food. Ironically all offices are open and many people are being told to go to work. I have family a few hours out of town with power. For me it will be the choice to head out. I feel bad for people who are stuck. Has Kito checked oin yet from Equador?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:56 | 2934909 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Eastern PA still has many without power, mine blinked about 20 times during the storm but never went out, lots of trees down, small branches all over the streets, bent signs and some damaged roofs and chimneys but no major flooding because there wasn't much rain for a hurricane in my area-there was a very strange period of about three hours as the eye was moving through just south of here when there was hardly any rain or wind at all.

Eastern Pennsylvania outage maps:

https://www.pplelectric.com/my-account/outage-center.aspx

https://www.peco.com/CustomerService/OutageCenter/OutageMap/Pages/Outage...

 

 

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:15 | 2934982 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's good to hear from you. I have been looking for a report from you Rsloane, and kito. I haven't seen anything from the other two yet. I'm glad to hear you have a place to go. I hope that more people do. Good luck.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:17 | 2934768 Silver Garbage Man
Silver Garbage Man's picture

You got it Jason ,I have more than enough wood in my garage for the winter. I don't have to rely on anyone else for my heat. That is very comforting. And it is by far the best heat. Trying to describe wood heat to someone is like trying to explain the 9 11 inside job,either you get it or you don't.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:46 | 2934891 walküre
walküre's picture

I just fell 5 mature Maples this summer. At the end of their lifespan which is about 50 years. Lots of lumber but I don't have time to chop it up. Wish I was closer and could deliver to you. Just out of curiousity, how big is a cord where you are? Seems that it makes a difference where you're at. In the NW we measure 4x4x8.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:56 | 2934674 Abiotic Oil
Abiotic Oil's picture

People need to consider this.  I live up in the mountains and up until about 10 years ago it was standard issue to have a functional wood stove that could heat your whole house.  Minimum a functional fireplace.  Now all the McMansions have electric furnaces (some gas).  Had a power outage that lasted a measly two days last year in the dead of winter and it was a moment of clarity for these folks.  Can't really knock a hole in the roof and light a fire in the middle of the kitchen.  It can easily get -20 or colder here without windchill.

Had a week long outage here back in the '90's and with the wood stove it was a breeze.  Heating and cooking with the stove and hand power over ride on the well.  Generator for the freezer, or just throw the food outside and save the gas.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:32 | 2934833 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I have a wood fireplace bitchez.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:39 | 2934854 fuu
fuu's picture

Do you have gas and lights yet?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:08 | 2934967 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Nothing. No power. I may head out tonight and head a few hundred miles south. F this.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:16 | 2934990 fuu
fuu's picture

Good luck.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:48 | 2934900 walküre
walküre's picture

That's the ticket. Wood stove is even better as you can cook on it. The heat from wood is unmatched by anything else imo. Gas is cheap but electric heating is for dummies.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 19:26 | 2936000 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

"She goin' like, she goin' like -- Propane!"

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:27 | 2934553 zapdude
zapdude's picture

Minor point, but the Port Reading Hess site is not a full refinery anymore -- most of it was shut down years ago. 

They're basically just running an FCC to make gasoline (with auxillary units & tanks), and importing VGO feedstocks.

The COP/Phillips 66 Linden plant is under duress and will likely permanantly shutdown in the continuing trend of Atlantic Basin refinery closures.  Maybe Marcellus liquids will save Linden, maybe not...

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:28 | 2934554 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Meh. Karma is a bitch for those statists.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:29 | 2935202 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

the millions of sheeple dependent on State (subsidised) transport are certainly fucked

those with cars have options, as per a poster above, getting out of a New York wrecked by the Govt of New York and heading south

the Hollywood disaster movies are absolute bollocks, the Govt and your benign President won't save you, in fact from every angle they'll probably stick a spanner in the works

politicians couldn't organise a piss-up in a Vodka distillery ...look after yourself 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:30 | 2934560 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Friend of mine (NJ) was all excited that he got a generator on 2 days notice.  'course, now his 2-gallon gas can is out and he can't find an open gas station without a 4 hour line.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:41 | 2934621 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

LOL.  He didn't see that coming.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:43 | 2935071 Fíréan
Fíréan's picture

Stand alone wind-turbine, it's a breeze, the more wind the more power, can be easily shut down when wind is too much. Not meaning the large blades up avertical  pole windmill type, but the  horizontal barrel shaped with vanes around the edge.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:33 | 2935234 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

a diesel generator runs 24/7 ..out of diesel, stick some old cooking oil in 

windmills great if the wind blows but it doesn't, often, but if you like water torture..!

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 16:00 | 2935547 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

Siphon from the auto.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:30 | 2934562 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

It is just massive conspiracy by the MSM...

There is no way a mere tropical storm could do this, it was just a little rain sloshing around....

Where is the real story about how HAARP is responsible! Did you know Al Gore went to Alaska recently!

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:32 | 2934570 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

There's another array in Puerto Rico...

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:44 | 2934632 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Let me guess, Arecibo?

My fuck, this is going to be more fun than I thought...

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:55 | 2934672 JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture

Lacking the wit to keep clear of the poisoned bait, the hyena slinked forward in the darkness to gorge on what it believed to be the easy pickins of another roadside kill. Behind the screen of sagebrush, the hunter grins with recognition of the scent of his prey returning...

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:36 | 2934593 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Well, it wasn't a tropical storm.  That label stops at 74 MPH winds.  They couldn't get the recon flights close enough to get anything but extrapolated readings of wind speeds at various elevations, so they'll eventually debate whether it was a 1 or mild 2.

Just think what the damage would have been if it had the intensity of the 1888 storm or back in the days (before man-made GW) when cat 5s used to hit land?  Thank goodness things have let up...

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:46 | 2934645 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

FWIW, it had a barometric pressure of a strong Cat 3-weak Cat 4 at landfall but it was very likely extra-tropical at the time....

Oh, yeah and a record IKE for the Atlantic basin...

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:55 | 2934673 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

I knew you'd be snuggling up with some of your "proof".  Just looking for a little entertainment on my end.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:59 | 2934683 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Aren't we all?

The whackadoos are in outstanding form the past few days...

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:11 | 2935162 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

Define whackadoo

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:15 | 2935173 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Its analgous to a Giffen good, if you need to ask the price you can't afford it...

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:18 | 2935412 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

Methinks it could be anyone espousing anything, that the collectivist trendie finds objectionable.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:27 | 2935442 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Nay, if I could broadly quantify it, it would be the repudiation of cogent rational thought....

I am surprised we didn't get more people denying we landed on the Moon this past week...

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:05 | 2934706 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Exhibit B)

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:39 | 2934608 zapdude
zapdude's picture

Are you being serious, or did you forget the /sarc tag? 

I'm familiar with but somewhat skeptical of HAARP. 

Seems like if the NWO had a weather doomsday weapon, they'd use it on their favorite enemies, like Iran, and not on their HQ located in NYC (UN building). Maybe I'm missing something...

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:46 | 2934642 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

they did use it or their current favorite enemy..

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:51 | 2934653 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

The NWO doesn't care about Iran one way or another. Their number one mission is to get the number of "useless eaters" down to 500 million or so. If bombing Iran is determined to advance that mission, then that is what will happen. On the other hand, if using Iran as a nothingburger distraction and sideshow is the way to advance the mission, then that is what will happen instead.

Either way, you and I will not be consulted or informed. That goes double regarding how HAARP is used (or not used)...

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:01 | 2934694 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Exhibit A)

More to follow....

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:30 | 2935224 zapdude
zapdude's picture

^^^  agent provacateur  ^^^

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:36 | 2937104 Element
Element's picture

But ... but ... there were ZERO tropical storms or subtropical storms before HAARP was built!  Oh wait ... that's right ... there were literally millions of them, over several billion years, in the past.  There's in fact extensive geological and geomorphological evidence for them having always occurred in the past, and in the same locations they occur right now, with the same intensities, and generally even higher (as bigger events tend to make more impact on rocks and sediment piles).  The millions of storms left visible measurable scars and sedimentary deposits everywhere on earth, in the then tropical regimes.

But we keep getting these Internet loons claiming that every bloody storm or prosaic seismic event is due to a mere high-frequency antenna array used for ionospheric soundings and polarisation/resistance experiments on rarefied ions (otherwise known as almost but not quite a vacuum - 'space').

but ya gots tah bahleeeve!

No thanks, my brain still works.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:50 | 2934911 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

ITS THE OCTOBER SURPRISE SO OBUMMER THE COMMIE MUSLIM KENYAN GAY JEWISH SOCIALIST ILLUMINATI-AGENT LUCIFERAN CAN CANCEL THE ELECTION AND DECLARE MARSHALL LAW AND ROUND UP ALL THE WHITES AND CONSERVATIVES AND GUN-OWNERS INTO DEATH-CAMPS!!!

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:58 | 2934940 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Now that's the Zero Hedge spirit!

You did forget the Bible burning rallies though...

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:27 | 2935429 hangemhigh
hangemhigh's picture

@Flakmeister

Now that's the Zero Hedge spirit!   You did forget the Bible burning rallies though...

and the snake-handling, 'talks in tongues', sweet baby jesus bobblehead dolls

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:29 | 2935450 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

There was a Sarah Palin variation on that theme, wasn;t there?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 17:32 | 2935594 hangemhigh
hangemhigh's picture

 that  was the lush fauxpas, multi-millionaire drug addict, DWTS version of the snake-handling, 'talking in tongues', sweet baby jesus bobblehead doll..............

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:31 | 2934566 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

India was hit by it's own cyclone in the Southeast today.

Here in Bangalore, it's been drizzling all day, minor wind. Yet I had a 6 hour power-cut.

There is infrastructure and then there is inferiorstructure.

On Topic, I hope the disease potential in NY, NY and nuclear (Unclear) situation overall is paid attention to and stabilized with speed.Not a good time to be near nuclear anything.

BTW, Big Apple Hit, APPL hit. Biblical I feel.

ori

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:18 | 2934997 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Greenie for 'inferiorstructure'.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:52 | 2935522 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

.

BTW, Big Apple Hit, APPL hit. Biblical I feel.

aww man, you guys blaming the feminazi's for this too?

(do I need to use a sarc tag here?)

((@ blunderdog:  teh "Marshall Law" was a coffee sputter moment, thanks))

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:33 | 2934574 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

That Sandy would bring gas prices down was the most idiotic shit circulating on the news cycle over the last few days.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:03 | 2934702 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Well maybe at the south end of the Colonial....

BTW, nice avatar...

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:35 | 2934587 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

OT.  Besides being tired of Sandy and the implications for now, I would like to ask for some help from my fellow ZH'ers.  Sorry it is off topic but perhaps someone can point out a direction.  Yesterday I found myself becoming involved in the sunflower seed markets.(black oil and stripe)  Does anyone know who makes that market?  I'm not trading it, I'm selling it and have a supplier.  I understand my current cost is $28.50 per cwt FOB.  This is an interesting market.  If their is anyone here who has any experience in how this trade works I would appreciate any insight.  It looks like the margins can be very good but I have been informed that price discovery is shady and can also be affected by the cooking oils markets.  There does not appear to be any HFT in sunflower seeds at least.  Once again, I apologize for being OT but I did not know where else to ask this question.   

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:46 | 2934644 Rainman
Rainman's picture

switch to tulips

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:01 | 2934691 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

I am being serious with my question.  No Sarc on/off.  I will be selling tonnage of black oil sunflower.  I am simply doing my own due diligence.  Look, the reality is that there are other markets out there besides the DOW, NASDAQ, CBOT etal ad nauseum.  If any of you would care to look, you would see that sunflower futures are not traded.  The question is why is that the case? 

I like being a smart ass as much as anyone else here but I have asked a pertinent and serious question.  If you can not provide a reasonable answer simply move on to the next clever comment bitching about rigged electronic trading.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:09 | 2934736 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Sounds like you bit off more than you chew...

You might just have to sell them to a local co. that either processes or supplies the big boys...

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:21 | 2934787 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Amazing the assumptions here on this sunflower post.  I did not bite off more than I can chew.  I have an oppurtunity is more like it.  It could be very lucrative and all of the pieces are already in place including bagging and logistics.  Costs are known.  What is unknown to me are price fluctuations and who makes the sunflower market.  Ever heard of True Value hardware stores?  If you buy black oil sunflower from any of them you bought it from me.

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:33 | 2934837 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Then it sounds like you already have your answer...

If costs are known and retail price is known, pick a decent margin and be done with it... Or are you trying to scalp an extra % here or there?

I would imagine that it would be the likes of Wesson that determine the market and that the seed oil value drives it...

There must be any number of "small" brokerages that at least provide insight to the CBOT action....

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:04 | 2934960 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

"Or are you trying to scalp an extra % here or there?"

I have to.  CBOT does not trade sunflower.  Don't take my word for it, check it out.  It's really easy to get burned if you commit to a large order without knowing what your cost is.  There does not seem to be a mechanism for price discovery but I am new to sunflower.  I also deal in bulk fertilizer sales but at least you can get a quote on that and I have been doing that for many years now.

I appreciate your serious consideration of the question Flakmeister.  Commodities are tough these days.  No one ever wants to pay a higher price for foodstuffs.  I can tell you this however and it bears worth a mention.  In 2006, a 30 margin was common and no one complained.  Today, we are looking at around a 5 margin on INPUTS and every deal is a major negotiation.  Talk about disincentive to produce or sell.  Just so ZH'ers know, you get your food from somewhere and it's not CBOT.     

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:18 | 2934999 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Try Winnipeg.... they once had a similar role as Chicago does for the Ags...No idea if that is still the case.

 I would think that you might get an idea from canola, another important oil seed, the spread must be pretty stable. And the retail oil price difference between the oil type has to reflect something of the feedstock costs...

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:10 | 2935158 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Agreed.  Winnipeg is not that far from me but North Dakota is also a large producer of sunflower and is closer and will beat me up on shipping costs.  Then there are the paperwork and fees of shipping over borders to consider. 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:49 | 2935073 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

"I have to."

you don't have to do anything.  instead of slinging birdseed to corporations and feeling the squeeze, you could partner up with the farmer you're scalping & invest in an industrial-size cold press to cooperatively make value-added products from your raw material.

one of these http://agoilpress.com/about_us.php and you could make cooking oil, heating oil, biodiesel, animal feed and bio-pellets for pellet stoves and do an end-around the petroleum/natural gas/big Ag/public utility rackets in your local community.   and most likely make a damn good profit doing so.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:57 | 2935121 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Well not to judge anyone's motives or situation, making a fast easy buck is now the American way, what you describe is old school....

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:06 | 2935369 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

+1 Not sure who minused you Flak.(as if that matters)  Your point on being "old school" is akin to my point on sunflower.  A very different market and one that is not talked about much.  I truly do appreciate everyone who took the conversation we have had seriously and posted relevant comments.  Who knows, we may have started a trend of civil discussion here which may well prove to be a very good thing for ZH and some of it's readers.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:42 | 2935266 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

+1 for thinking outside the box tip e. canoe.  True, I do not have to do anything EXCEPT make a profit but I agree with your sentiment.  I checked your link and that is quite a field of Brassica rape which I do think has a bright future. 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:16 | 2935406 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

The birds in my yard love the stuff. Fortunately they are unlikely to develop an entitlement attitude towards my feeder.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 16:55 | 2935669 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

LOL @ Uncle Remus.  Target practice.:-)

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 16:59 | 2935679 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Shhhhh. No one knows about the pellet gun...

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 17:55 | 2935798 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

No one knows about my scythe either.  You know, the reaper style.  Should get a few startled looks here in a few minutes when the little beggars come for candy.  One M&M per child should be sufficient.  Hey, I am trying to help prevent tooth decay and keep helath care costs down.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 20:37 | 2936189 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

LOL. My wife is livid. There aren't many children in our neighborhood, but we've had more wankers ringing our door bell this year than ever. And our light is turned off.

Lo and behold - the little bastards are being driven around the neighborhood.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 20:58 | 2936258 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

LOL, my wife dressed up and looks quite nice tonight.  I took my seven year old daughter over to a large upscale apartment complex across the street just to show her the possibilities.  We waited a few minutes as I smoked a cig and sure enough a resident came pulling into the parking lot and let us in after I asked really nicely.  Daughter cleaned house.  After review, the ratio of candy taken in compared to the candy given out is somewhere around three to one.  We have taken the sign off our door now and cashed out.  Daughter and her seven year old friend are now bouncing up and down, floor to ceiling.  Oppurtunity cost?:-)  I think I will have a Snickers.:-)

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:25 | 2935438 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

happy you found it constructive, as that is how i intended it, light snark aside ;~) was thinking about rape, if only to make my own crop circle:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1280930/Complex-crop-circ...

(purdy ain't it?)

but it rapes the soil and is a nutrient whore, which means selling my soul to the fertilizer man. plus, it attracts bugs that like to eat other brassicas, and i like my cauliflowers & kales too much. however, i found this crop jabbing with Seer a couple months ago, gold of pleasure:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camelina_sativa

can't get much more old school than the Bronze Age.

best of luck with your deal.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 16:40 | 2935530 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Ahh, finally a discussion of the Brassica genus on ZH.  Brassica?  It's not AAPL?  All crops "rape" the soil in varying degrees.  Organic matter being recycled can certainly help nutrient retention but there is no such thing as 100% organic produce.  There are always cost inputs that reflect the output in any endeavor.  You can not get something for nothing and I believe you will agree.  Unless, of course, you are a banker that uses a "model" where future prodution is consumed today.  Even though the cost of commodities has risen dramatically over the last few years so has the cost of production and has outpaced the margins of the producers.  The equipment required to produce is getting very old now and will need to be replaced.  Just something for the hotshot day traders and the krugmans need to consider.   

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 18:04 | 2935815 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

funny, i was going to reply "time to sharpen the scythes" and you beat me to it above. nice one.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:41 | 2934859 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Rainman, believe it or not, I have sold tulip bulbs.(and crocus and hyacinth)  Decent margin on retail, not so much on bulk.  Perishable.  Perhaps you should try AAPL.  It is just as easy to lose money that way and the value added is that you don't have a warehouse full of rotting debris to dispose of. 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:39 | 2934737 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

you may wanna give a call to:  http://brodheckerfarm.com/  if you're not in their market region (as in a potential direct competitor), they might be willing to give you some advice.

p.s. you should keep some, get a cold press and squeeze yourself some oil.   or better yet, sprout em.   black oil sunflower seeds are mad nutritious.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:56 | 2934935 walküre
walküre's picture

Appreciate the OT actually. How much area are you cultivating and what sort of yield have you calculated? Canola is your biggest competitor. Are you strictly trading the seeds or are you growing from seedling to seed?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:34 | 2935044 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Thank you Walkure.  I do appreciate your posts as well.  I am not the farmer in this scenario.  I am buying sunflower out of South Dakota.  We screen(98%) bag and sell the seed to retailers.  You may have wondered why I noted 98%.  There are two screen grades of sunflower and they are 98% and 99%.  As you would imagine the 99% is screened twice but that adds at least $2 of cost per cwt so it is really not worth the effort.  It gets slightly more complicated when you are talking about #2 sunflower.(google it)

I am the middle man, so to speak, and I was only wondering why there are no CBOT futures on sunflower.  I do believe it is a good question.  I have not seen a discussion on ZH yet(or anywhere else) which addresses how a commodity can be traded off E-exchanges.  As for canola, you are correct but sometimes sunflower price dips below canola and producers of vegetable oils will switch.  It is this market that is hard to determine.  Who is making the market and why can't I make the market? 

Sunflower is the antithesis of HFT.  A potential buyer makes an offer and a seller may or may not accept.  No one really needs one billion bids per second do they?

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:27 | 2935444 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

In June of this year, the Ukraine was agitating for Chicago to start a futures market in sunflower *oil*.

If that happens, it seems like you could use that to get an implied price for the seeds. 

But I don't know what the odds are of this happening.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 16:52 | 2935665 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Mick, you seem to have been paying attention to things other than AAPL and GOOG.  Ukraine and Russia's sunflower harvest was not good this year as you likely know.  The U.S. harvest was stellar and it is all in now.  Who else knows that though?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:40 | 2935488 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

By the way - I, personally, use sunflower oil in cooking. 

And I, personally, would no sooner use canola oil than I would use WD-40.

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:37 | 2934596 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

"Operators running Colonial Pipeline in Alpharetta said they can't pump gas into the hurricane zone and the pipe is not the problem. 

"It's full. Our tanks are full. Our customers that we normally deliver out to are unable to take deliveries because they were damaged by the storm,"  

There was an hour-long wait to buy fuel for generators in New Jersey – not a gas shortage, but a shortage of open gas stations. 

Colonial Pipeline carries up 100 million gallons a day,controlling much of the East Coast's fuel supply,  The Alpharetta, GA-based pipeline pumps gas, diesel and aircraft fuel from the Gulf Coast, through Atlanta to New York's harbor. "

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/news/local/huge-section-gas-pipeline-shut-down/nSr5k/


Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:43 | 2934630 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Eliminating bottle-necks, bitchez.  That's what planning is all about.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:37 | 2934597 CoolBeans
CoolBeans's picture

Aside from the major inconvenience of lack of electricity -- I'm curious to know how the distribution centers are doing.  Hopefully they are partially or fully operational w/generator power, etc. (but fuel?).  Surely there are going to be some serious food availability issues soon if the distrubution arms cannot get orders and deliveries processed.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:41 | 2934620 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

See, this is why we need central planning!  Those distribution centers would be fully stocked with pickled beets!  Forward Soviet!

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:58 | 2934939 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

This is my interest as well.  I'm pretty well-stocked at home, but will be visiting stores frequently to get a feel for what's happening with that.

A hungry city is a dangerous city.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:10 | 2935160 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

Yes, there will be some who have no food in their place of abode and will be quickly looking for a place to find food. But many folks will actually be stuffing themselves for a few days trying to eat as much of the thawing food from their freezers and spoiling food from their refridgerators before they have to throw it out.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:38 | 2935250 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Typical misallocation of resources.  Pshaw.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:58 | 2935538 falak pema
falak pema's picture

how do you fight nature when it points out the subway is anti-deluvian?

Misallocation on short term and...good allocation on longer term...is not an easy conundrum when New Jersey is up the creek in municipal and state debt. 

This whole debate about allocation of ressources is now critical, as 7 billion people want to copy the US model...good luck with that! If we go that route watch out for more of the Sandy type routs and consequent mal-investment round-abouts. 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 16:25 | 2935610 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

NOBODY wants to copy the US *model.* 

They want to copy the US *end-result.* 

The "global demand" is for a society that protects the welfare of stupid overfed people with more dollars than sense AND supplies them a virtually endless stream of toys and diversions.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 18:15 | 2935727 falak pema
falak pema's picture

the end result means energy guzzling and capital misallocation along the way; the 99/1% divide now world wide. That's the road Chindia has taken, and its beyond world sustainability. The US model imposes the means to this end. That is part of the Matrix of oligarchy control. It is now the problem. 

The welfare state is NOT the main problem. The nation state problem is living within your means, if welfare creates jobs in a circular autonomous economy for 50% of the population, creating local value added, via governement or semi-government, or private national market mechanisms,  thats fine. This is nothing new. The other hyper/more productive 50% can export and create the leading edge stuff and earn their bread and butter better provided they buy the production of the OTHER 50% as well, the lesser productive; and provided the nation does not import durably much more than it exports. The productivity/competitive quality mechanism of regulated imports, in the bottom segment, allows to make it par to world market without destroying its fabric; like has currently happened in first world. We should encourage the local service sector to feel the bite of competition to readjust local supply to markets, without outsourcing it out completely. There the government has a role to open the sluice gets, get the productivity adjustment and regulate closure to make sure local services don't fall out of step with world markets. My use of 50% as global/national break points is purely arbitrary and needs to be defined by the import/export, Balance of trade, employment type dynamics. If the USA has no economic and employment problems that ratio could be 100%! Just saying, each nation state has to find its own balance and accept its consequential living standard to achieve social employment requirements in the bottom segment. The size of government regulated sector depends on the competitive performance of each nation state. I don't think one model corresponds to all needs across the globe for each nation state.

We don't have to have the WHOLE economy open to the world. We can do 50% of our service economy locally, and ensure a export economy that then imports what it does not produce, but within its means. Nation states were made to serve local populations and also dynamic export value creators; the two are not incompatible provided we live within our means in terms of debt, deficit and environment constraints. 

Many roads to cross as this global model is unsustainable. I don't believe the world is ready for world government run by a 1% Oligarchy. That obviously is a given. Nation states are still the best entities provided they cooperate via international mechanisms that regulate the balance of world resources amongst different nation states, avoid wars and unilateral hubris and mis-allocaton, through multi lateral negociation. Its a big, diverse family, the world.

My personal take is that if we believe in a totally libertarian global economy we must accept the death of nation state, of all wealth redistribution  and world rule by a 1% Oligarchy that represents at global level the libertarian "survival of fittest" meme. 

Good luck with that! 'Cos we are already there! And these guys make all the rules ...for all the others, but not applicalble for themselves!

That's history's BIG lesson and its called despotism and there is no way out once you're in it!

Except 476 AD or 1789... 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:39 | 2934611 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Lumber futures continuing it's jump today.  

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/LU

Time to start those tree farms.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:44 | 2934634 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Didn't FDR confiscate the trees at the same time that he freed the slaves?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:49 | 2934656 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Coming from you, that was perfect..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poe's_law

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:11 | 2934977 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Wait - it WAS about the trees?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:51 | 2935518 falak pema
falak pema's picture

and he confiscated gold, and he Glass-Steagalled and...he thought Keynes and New Deal were the solution...now that makes him an ideal target for the libertarians! 

We'll never know if it was his big state or the war that made USA what it was yesterday; before it fell to where it is today!

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:42 | 2934623 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

It looks like only Salem 1 is off-line. It doesn't say anything about Salem 2.

 

It seems South Jersey made out pretty good, except, of course, for the shore.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:54 | 2934930 walküre
walküre's picture

I guess parties at Snooki's are cancelled until further notice?

Sandy is a bitch. She's pissed that Snooki got all the attention in Jersey.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:42 | 2934626 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Sandy got tied to the bad economic news whipping post. Niiice.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:57 | 2934677 ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

I am sure that "green" power will step in to make up for the shortfall. /sarc

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:07 | 2934724 Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

Get used to 48% offline, unless new power plants are started soon to replace the coal plants being decomissioned.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:09 | 2934972 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Never let a crisis go to waste, even even you have create the damn thing yourself.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:25 | 2935016 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

What are you haarping about now??

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:55 | 2935115 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

I see what you did there...

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:27 | 2935027 toomanyfakecons...
toomanyfakeconservatives's picture

Not quite the big one.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:31 | 2935460 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

That's what she said.    :-(

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:36 | 2935049 Forbes
Forbes's picture

Nine Mile Point is on Lake Ontario, so if it's off-line, it's nothing to do with Sandy. It could be to re-balance load with so many customers "off-line." Only in that way is it a result of Sandy, i.e. chicken-egg problem.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:03 | 2935126 Fíréan
Fíréan's picture

As the storm stretches are far as the Great Lakes why would it not be an effect of this storm ?

 

edit :

 

from an Associated Press artcile, quoted in part :

Nine Mile Point Unit 1 reactor on Lake Ontario, northwest of Syracuse, N.Y., shut down automatically around 9 p.m. Monday when an electrical fault occurred on a power line used to send electricity from the plant to the grid, according to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

The second reactor at the site lost one of its incoming power lines, causing a backup generator to start. That reactor was continuing to produce electricity.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:51 | 2935100 CrabGrassKila
CrabGrassKila's picture

Generator, Wood stove, Pellet stove, Solar hot water heater, Oil furnace,

Lead Lined Basement: Priceless  

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:14 | 2935397 Jena
Jena's picture

We have some of that stuff.  We also have about 30 gallons of water stored in 1 qt sparkling water bottles in the freezers.  My husband thought it was for a drinking supply -- which it sort of is, except I also have that stored in non-frozen form (that I recycle on a regular basis).  The frozen stuff would take too long to thaw in the short-term.  What it's really for is to put in the fridge when the power goes out so we don't lose any of the stored food.  

It worked very well when we had an earthquake last August.  The power was only out for about eight hours but that's a long time in the desert and it's still over 100 degrees outside at ten pm.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 21:09 | 2936299 nastaking
nastaking's picture

Gaming company, Nintendo, has announced that its upcoming  Bedove X2 Phone console will be touring Australia in a series of pop-up stores across the country commencing on Monday, November 5.

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