ADP "Cancels" 365,000 Private Jobs Created In 2012

Tyler Durden's picture

Frequent readers know that in addition of any "data" and "numbers" out of Larry Yun's National Association of Realtors, which we openly boycott as these are consistently manipulated (recall the massive historical December 2011 revision), slanted and conflicted, the second dataset which we have mocked with a passion is anything coming out of the ADP, which every month releases its "Private Jobs" number a day before the official BLS Non-farm Payroll data. Today, our mockeries have been proven 100% spot on. The reason? A week ago, ADP announced that going forward it would coordinate with Moody's (yes, that Moody's), and especially its chief economist, SecTres hopeful (InTrade odds of actually attain that post: 0.00) Mark Zandi, to fudge adjust its data going forward. The data revision was supposed to be publicly disclosed tomorrow when the official October ADP number was released. Well, just like today's Chicago PMI, and so many other data points recently, this too was released early. What the early release allowed us to promptly calculate is that using the historically revised numbers, and comparing those based on the original methodology, in 2012 alone, the US would have lost a whopping... 365,000 private jobs! Putting thus number in context, according to the revised methodology, the US has generated only 1.172MM jobs in 2012 through September, or in other words, a statistical "fix" magically eliminated over 30% of what the market had previously expected were job gains, a number which the incumbent president has certain taken advantage of on more than one occasions while campaigning.

The chart below shows the old data series (which can still be found at the St. Louis Fed), and the new series, which can be extracted from the advance leaked press release. The cumulative difference is the black line. It needs no explanation.

What is also of note, is that had ADP used its revised methodology, it would have missed 5 out of the past 7 Wall Street consensus estimates.

As an added bonus, whereas according to the previous release, which we were lucky enough to tag here, the US generated +4,000 manufacturing jobs in September, the new release indicates that in the same month, the US actually lost -17,400 manufacturing jobs. Perhaps it is time to rerun the Ohio presidential speeches one more time...

And that is how "precise" supposedly the far more accurate ADP (at least in comparison to the NFP's wild X-12-ARIMA extrapolated goalseeked data) was historically.

Basically the "job creation" in America is and has always been a function of an excel spreadsheet, and seasonal fudge factors, as ADP just definitively confirmed.  As such, we look forward to the next "revision" which will eliminate a further 1.1 million private jobs in 2012, showing an economy that has added virtually no jobs in the current year. Luckily, what ADP also did, was professional suicide, as after this "recasting", absolutely nobody, except for the BLS of course which will now be forced to do a comparable datarevision, will take the New Jersey based company, and especially its Moody's Joint Venture, seriously.

To summarize: "If you think America created jobs, it didn't. ADP made that happen."

Look forward to ADP re-revising its numbers tomorrow, to make them once again fit in with the general narrative that things in America are, contrary to every indication, getting better.

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King_of_simpletons's picture

Created or Saved

Matter = Energy



American34's picture

Since bad news is good news now and the FED is targeting "employment" are we safe to assume that more QE is on the way since ADP is cutting their "job Creation" numbers in half. Also, since last month was QEternity is next month, "QEternity and Beyond!"

Pladizow's picture

Aaaaannnnnddddd its gone - will become an all too familiar meme!

NotApplicable's picture

Along with, Daddy, what's a 'job?'

Dr. Richard Head's picture

Daughter: Mommy, where does money come from?

Mother: You see, when a central bank and a printer really lover each other.....


camaro68ss's picture

This is what happens when you print jobs

redpill's picture

The problem is we didn't print enough jobs, if only we had pretended bigger, everything would have worked out.  Just like Europe.

knukles's picture

Zandi fudgetm

Hah ha ha ha ha ha ha

"The New Standard in Data Reliability"


brought to you in conjunction with Moody's collateralized ratings and the BLS

redpill's picture

No shit, if getting Moody's advice actually resulted in them revising it DOWN, they really must have been crazy high.

Gully Foyle's picture

Dr. Richard Head

Sandra Fluke will have no children due to the extreme usage of various expensive birth control methods.

Grinder74's picture

You see, when Daddies can't make enough money, or when a "marriage" only has two mommies, then Mommy has to spread her legs.

Gully Foyle's picture


Heather has two momies.

Neither of which have ever participated in any type of "job" with the male oppressor.

macholatte's picture



Wow!  The same thing happened to me (my boat was just a tad smaller).


Ship with 700 tons of gold ore disappears off Russia



TheCanadianAustrian's picture

From what I gather, 700 tons of ore might contain just a few pounds of gold.

Tinky's picture

Presumably, next week you'll be reporting that the Giant's won the World Series.

akak's picture

He'll be reporting that the Giant's what won the World Series?

TheFourthStooge-ing's picture


Since bad news is good news now and the FED is targeting "employment"

...then we should embrace the good bad news that the FED has been successful not only in targeting employment, but hunting it down and killing it wherever it may exist.

Skateboarder's picture

When iSee anything related to number of jobs created or destroyed, iPuke. Law of conservation of jobs, bitchez: delta(jobs) = 0

In English, that can be read as "there were/are/will be no jobs."

Doubleguns's picture

I am curious where on this labor participation rate chart can someone show me the added jobs.




Gully Foyle's picture


Dude, like debt it's just numbers on a server.

ptoemmes's picture

ADP = A Despicable Ponzi

I'm not entirely safisited with that one.

blunderdog's picture

Another Deceptive Propaganda-mill

FrankDrakman's picture

All Despairing Poltroons?

Anxiously Disappearing Plutocrats?

Always Dwindling Payrolls?

All Democratic Puffery?

Abysmally Dumb Predictions?


Republi-Ken's picture

Dear Republican At Heart Tyler Durden,


The number of jobs you are all pissed off about

created in 2012 so far @ 1.17MILLION...


Now that is about 10X what the Republican Stupid Son Bush created over 8 years BEFORE 2008 FINANCIAL SHITFUCK.

DUH! Republican Conservatives Always Forgetting The Facts When Its Convenient

JohnnyBriefcase's picture

Aww look at this lil' guy!


He still believes in the right-left paradigm!


So cute! Can we keep him?!

A Nanny Moose's picture

Just don't feed him after midnight.

EscapeKey's picture

Yes, but now it can't get worse.


knukles's picture

Here comes QEwhatevernumberitisnow

I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

Exactly, but instead it should be (YAAAAAWWWWWWWWWWWN) Bullish.  Again.  As Always.

Lost Wages's picture

Oh yeah! I thought I was still unemployed, but the statistics had me fooled for awhile.

Renewable Life's picture

Be very thankful for SNAP cards, NFL football and that the NBA tips off tonight, otherwise with 33% of adult males out of work, you'd have an open violent civil war raging in this Country, like in every other third world Country with those kind of statistics!!!!


knukles's picture

Funny, I was thinking on my way to a meeting this morning just how we're devolving into something like an African peasantry with the hungry women and children in rags, shoeless ordered about by massive healthy overfed armed soldiers in pressed cammies scowling at everybody, doing what they might with impunity...

Gully Foyle's picture


Wow, what a shitty neighborhood you live in.

Karlus's picture

Based on the location of red states vs blue, I would posit it would be a very quick and violent campaign. Their gun laws have done an amazing job of keeping blue states disarmed.


In addition, last time I checked the Northeast did not grow any food which could be problematic for them. California grows some, but my understanding their largest cash crop is a certain type of weed.

Renewable Life's picture

"California grows some"?????? Are you serious... California not only grows everything you eat in America 90% of the year, but exports hundreds of billions in food products, I just read the ag report for 2011 for one of the smallest counties in CA, 500,000 population in the whole county, they produced 11billion dollars worth of ag related production!!!

I agree with you on the gun issue, but your dreaming if you don't think CA is the food production capital on the planet earth! It's produces more food per acre then anywhere on earth!!

Karlus's picture

Ummm, yeah, about that 90% of produce from Cali....


Not so much

JimBowie1958's picture

I just read the ag report for 2011 for one of the smallest counties in CA, 500,000 population in the whole county, they produced 11billion dollars worth of ag related production!!!

WOW! Since when did the Feds start doing stats on marijuana production?

larz's picture

I live in chicago I havent seen one red cent!!!!

Dr. Engali's picture

I'm sure CNBC will be all over this. They are a dedicated fact finding hard working bunch that will go to the ends of the earth to expose the truth.


Damn I'll have to go to confession over that whopper.

knukles's picture

Maybe, maybe but only maybe a passing mention....
To be drowned out in a nonsensical shouting match of the irrelevant and inane

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Don't tell the media, they are sleeping and need their rest.

EscapeKey's picture

No, no, this is ok. Because these are old numbers, hence they are already priced in. They could in fact be cataclysmic, they would still be priced in.

Funny how that works in reverse when they're positive.

pods's picture

It's like Calvinball.