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ADP "Cancels" 365,000 Private Jobs Created In 2012
Frequent readers know that in addition of any "data" and "numbers" out of Larry Yun's National Association of Realtors, which we openly boycott as these are consistently manipulated (recall the massive historical December 2011 revision), slanted and conflicted, the second dataset which we have mocked with a passion is anything coming out of the ADP, which every month releases its "Private Jobs" number a day before the official BLS Non-farm Payroll data. Today, our mockeries have been proven 100% spot on. The reason? A week ago, ADP announced that going forward it would coordinate with Moody's (yes, that Moody's), and especially its chief economist, SecTres hopeful (InTrade odds of actually attain that post: 0.00) Mark Zandi, to fudge adjust its data going forward. The data revision was supposed to be publicly disclosed tomorrow when the official October ADP number was released. Well, just like today's Chicago PMI, and so many other data points recently, this too was released early. What the early release allowed us to promptly calculate is that using the historically revised numbers, and comparing those based on the original methodology, in 2012 alone, the US would have lost a whopping... 365,000 private jobs! Putting thus number in context, according to the revised methodology, the US has generated only 1.172MM jobs in 2012 through September, or in other words, a statistical "fix" magically eliminated over 30% of what the market had previously expected were job gains, a number which the incumbent president has certain taken advantage of on more than one occasions while campaigning.
The chart below shows the old data series (which can still be found at the St. Louis Fed), and the new series, which can be extracted from the advance leaked press release. The cumulative difference is the black line. It needs no explanation.
What is also of note, is that had ADP used its revised methodology, it would have missed 5 out of the past 7 Wall Street consensus estimates.
As an added bonus, whereas according to the previous release, which we were lucky enough to tag here, the US generated +4,000 manufacturing jobs in September, the new release indicates that in the same month, the US actually lost -17,400 manufacturing jobs. Perhaps it is time to rerun the Ohio presidential speeches one more time...

And that is how "precise" supposedly the far more accurate ADP (at least in comparison to the NFP's wild X-12-ARIMA extrapolated goalseeked data) was historically.
Basically the "job creation" in America is and has always been a function of an excel spreadsheet, and seasonal fudge factors, as ADP just definitively confirmed. As such, we look forward to the next "revision" which will eliminate a further 1.1 million private jobs in 2012, showing an economy that has added virtually no jobs in the current year. Luckily, what ADP also did, was professional suicide, as after this "recasting", absolutely nobody, except for the BLS of course which will now be forced to do a comparable datarevision, will take the New Jersey based company, and especially its Moody's Joint Venture, seriously.
To summarize: "If you think America created jobs, it didn't. ADP made that happen."
Look forward to ADP re-revising its numbers tomorrow, to make them once again fit in with the general narrative that things in America are, contrary to every indication, getting better.
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ADP=NAR
Created or Saved
Matter = Energy
Since bad news is good news now and the FED is targeting "employment" are we safe to assume that more QE is on the way since ADP is cutting their "job Creation" numbers in half. Also, since last month was QEternity is next month, "QEternity and Beyond!"
Aaaaannnnnddddd its gone - will become an all too familiar meme!
Along with, Daddy, what's a 'job?'
Daughter: Mommy, where does money come from?
Mother: You see, when a central bank and a printer really lover each other.....
This is what happens when you print jobs
The problem is we didn't print enough jobs, if only we had pretended bigger, everything would have worked out. Just like Europe.
Zandi fudgetm
Hah ha ha ha ha ha ha
"The New Standard in Data Reliability"
brought to you in conjunction with Moody's collateralized ratings and the BLS
No shit, if getting Moody's advice actually resulted in them revising it DOWN, they really must have been crazy high.
Dr. Richard Head
Sandra Fluke will have no children due to the extreme usage of various expensive birth control methods.
You see, when Daddies can't make enough money, or when a "marriage" only has two mommies, then Mommy has to spread her legs.
NotApplicable
Heather has two momies.
Neither of which have ever participated in any type of "job" with the male oppressor.
golly gully
Wow! The same thing happened to me (my boat was just a tad smaller).
Ship with 700 tons of gold ore disappears off Russiahttp://www.myfoxorlando.com/story/19951564/ship-with-700-tons-of-gold-%2...
From what I gather, 700 tons of ore might contain just a few pounds of gold.
Presumably, next week you'll be reporting that the Giant's won the World Series.
He'll be reporting that the Giant's what won the World Series?
.
...then we should embrace the good bad news that the FED has been successful not only in targeting employment, but hunting it down and killing it wherever it may exist.
When iSee anything related to number of jobs created or destroyed, iPuke. Law of conservation of jobs, bitchez: delta(jobs) = 0
In English, that can be read as "there were/are/will be no jobs."
I am curious where on this labor participation rate chart can someone show me the added jobs.
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
King_of_simpletons
Dude, like debt it's just numbers on a server.
ADP = A Despicable Ponzi
I'm not entirely safisited with that one.
Another Deceptive Propaganda-mill
All Despairing Poltroons?
Anxiously Disappearing Plutocrats?
Always Dwindling Payrolls?
All Democratic Puffery?
Abysmally Dumb Predictions?
Whoops................
Dear Republican At Heart Tyler Durden,
AKA: BALLS OWNED BY WALL STREET
The number of jobs you are all pissed off about
created in 2012 so far @ 1.17MILLION...
EQUALS 9.5 MILLION JOBS CREATED OVER 8 YEARS.
Now that is about 10X what the Republican Stupid Son Bush created over 8 years BEFORE 2008 FINANCIAL SHITFUCK.
DUH! Republican Conservatives Always Forgetting The Facts When Its Convenient
Aww look at this lil' guy!
He still believes in the right-left paradigm!
So cute! Can we keep him?!
Just don't feed him after midnight.
E-I-P-C
F-I-A-L
Yes, but now it can't get worse.
Bullish!
Here comes QEwhatevernumberitisnow
Exactly, but instead it should be (YAAAAAWWWWWWWWWWWN) Bullish. Again. As Always.
Oh yeah! I thought I was still unemployed, but the statistics had me fooled for awhile.
The Oconomy
1/3 of Adult US Males Are Out of Work
ObamaCare Funnels $100 Million per Year to Chicago
Be very thankful for SNAP cards, NFL football and that the NBA tips off tonight, otherwise with 33% of adult males out of work, you'd have an open violent civil war raging in this Country, like in every other third world Country with those kind of statistics!!!!
Funny, I was thinking on my way to a meeting this morning just how we're devolving into something like an African peasantry with the hungry women and children in rags, shoeless ordered about by massive healthy overfed armed soldiers in pressed cammies scowling at everybody, doing what they might with impunity...
knukles
Wow, what a shitty neighborhood you live in.
Based on the location of red states vs blue, I would posit it would be a very quick and violent campaign. Their gun laws have done an amazing job of keeping blue states disarmed.
In addition, last time I checked the Northeast did not grow any food which could be problematic for them. California grows some, but my understanding their largest cash crop is a certain type of weed.
"California grows some"?????? Are you serious... California not only grows everything you eat in America 90% of the year, but exports hundreds of billions in food products, I just read the ag report for 2011 for one of the smallest counties in CA, 500,000 population in the whole county, they produced 11billion dollars worth of ag related production!!!
I agree with you on the gun issue, but your dreaming if you don't think CA is the food production capital on the planet earth! It's produces more food per acre then anywhere on earth!!
Ummm, yeah, about that 90% of produce from Cali....
Not so much
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Crops_County/index.asp
I just read the ag report for 2011 for one of the smallest counties in CA, 500,000 population in the whole county, they produced 11billion dollars worth of ag related production!!!
WOW! Since when did the Feds start doing stats on marijuana production?
I live in chicago I havent seen one red cent!!!!
I'm sure CNBC will be all over this. They are a dedicated fact finding hard working bunch that will go to the ends of the earth to expose the truth.
Damn I'll have to go to confession over that whopper.
Wonderful sarc Doc, LOL....
Maybe, maybe but only maybe a passing mention....
To be drowned out in a nonsensical shouting match of the irrelevant and inane
Don't tell the media, they are sleeping and need their rest.
No, no, this is ok. Because these are old numbers, hence they are already priced in. They could in fact be cataclysmic, they would still be priced in.
Funny how that works in reverse when they're positive.
It's like Calvinball.
pods
watching porn
"ADP "Corzines" 365,000 Private Jobs Created In 2012"
Fixed it for ya Tyler.
<I don't know what happened. They were just here. Honest to God!>
I don't see how one of the largest payroll companies in the US needs to do anything to the data. At the end of each month run "select count(unique (payee_id)) from paycheck table"
No, raw numbers are unacceptable. The numbers must be adjusted by various metrics, heuristics, loltistics, and whatever. What will the people do with raw numbers? That's about as crazy as assuming they know what to do with their own money.
Now put your DBA hat down. It will do you no good in this world.
"loltistics" is a great word.
malikai
Dude people have no idea what to do with their money.
Really do you think all poor people exist because "the man" oppresses them?
Give somebody a hundred bucks and see if they pay a bill or buy drinks.
No, I think we all tend to do plenty to oppress ourselves. But that hasn't got much to do with the question of whether or not we should have the right to our own production. Even stupid people have that right as well.
Gully Foyle said:
What if they use it to pay off a bar tab?
Raw numbers also have the ability to be "off message" from the current "narrative." Understand that there is a "greater good" at play here. Dismal job numbers can be discouraging or troubling to the populace and helps no one.
Your mistake is expecting a relational, normalized database.
Zandi just isn't (polite), Manly,
"The unemployment market has stabilized" ADP
In early October, ADP hoped to get the contract to print govmint unemployment checks. Apparently ADP did not get the contract.
Maybe so, or maybe just not from this administration...
Unprepared
No fucking way dude.
Until I see a line of unemployed white guys outside Home Depot working for Chinese wages, the unemployment market has not stabilized.
sure it has. 365,000 people don't have a job, haven't had a job, an haven't been reported to have a job. What's the difference right? Same thing - no jobs. *smdh*
How nice to see they're working overtime at the Ministry of Truth. What a farce.
The jobs may be gone...but the S&P doesn't seem to have moved at all...
http://govttrader.blogspot.com/
Tyler, adp cut ties with former FOMC member Larry "fed insider for sale" Meyer's Macroeconomic Advisors to join with Moodys. Could Meyers firm be behind the severely upwardly biased numbers? Perhaps helping the fed improve confidence in the "recovery" by manipulating the jobs numbers was a way for the always competent Meyer to repay the fed for allowing him to sell all the insider info he gets from them.
Dear ADP, why is this so damn hard for you. Just release the raw numbers, no statistical models need be applied. We'll draw our own conclusions.
Obviously manipulated intentionally to affect next week's election.
Both "sides" make me sick!
There will soon be lynchings and rioting in the streets.
Electronic markets are already clearly fixed now, almost 100%. The biggest reason there was such a push to get away from the pits.
Paging Jack Welch...Jack Welch... please report to the Vindication Room immediately !
Dammit! You beat me to it.
Jack Welch is in his mid-70s but the dude still has it going on. Immuelt can suck cheese whiz off of Obama's potatoes during their once a year business lunches to talk about how to get the country going. Seems the theme of the meetings was get the country going to china and put 365,000 people out of work in 2012 alone.
Wonder if they can backcheck to 2011 and see what the correction is for THAT?
=More QE
=Bullish
how do you click on both arrows?
is that you Mitt?
its mittens to you
Deep Shah has moved to ADP??? Can I still make fun of Moodys? Cope&Change.
Is there any data point that will cause the markets to go all Baumgartner? Doesn't look like it.
Already moving the markets up.
Jetson, yoooouuuu're cancelled!!
What ever happened to Mr. Spacely? Probably got spoken to by HR.
Meanwhile, the confidence game board, I mean, the conference board, delayed release of its "all important" consumer confidence figure until to tomorrow for the safety of its employees and those that follow the measure (brian wesbury and steve liesman...when its improving). So expect a positive consumer confidence figure tomorrow as the conference board obviously doesn't want to waste the impact of the freshness of the positive surprise on this faux market, otherwise you can bet that a negative number would have been buried in Sandy's flying sand yesterday.
I never understood why ADP adjusts their numbers in any significant way. They are perfectly situated to report accurate data, especially for the private sector.
Paychecks cut and issued has to be about the best indication that someone has a job, and they also know the number of hours worked when that check is tied to an hourly wage.
The only adjustment warranted is when they lose a client and the month-over-month change needs to be adjusted accordingly.
How about simply reporting total paychecks issued with a few logical subsets:
Paychecks < 30 hrs (P/T hourly)
Paychecks > 30 hrs (full time hourly)
Salaried paychecks
they also know if hourly wages are going up or down.
should be eezy peezy but some whiz kid with an app sold them the idea he was needed to run their jobs number division.
What amazes me more is that people actually believe any of the "official" job numbers.
...and the people most apt to believe the numbers are the ones without jobs.
There are tons of new economy jobs out there that aren't accounted for.
Roadside Nickle Canner Recycler.
Craigslist/Backpage Escort/Sex Worker.
Kidney/Organ Donor Broker.
Driveway Auto Repair/Detail Technician.
Pet Euthanasiaist.
Streetside Fried Cricket, Rat and Squirrel Vendor.
Day Labor Supervisor.
Basement Partion Builder.
posse comitatus recruits and ammo reloaders too
"Basement partition builder" caused a beverage spill here! It reminded me of a speach that POTUS gave early in his Presidency from a Home Depot telling the nation that having your windows recaulked, and adding insulation to the attic was the route to recovery.
The guy is brilliant!
(sigh, I'll miss him...)
iThingy screen cleaners
Don't forget Barry told us that, "We could save all the oil that they’re talking about getting off drilling – if everybody was just inflating their tires?"
Please also add
Defragging hard drive
Using the self checkout at the grocery
Completing your own taxes (you will require a license for that next year)
Teeth cleaning
Wiping
I've honestly been thinking about hiring somebody to scratch my back, pick zits, trim my toenails and otherwise fuss over my body.
TSHTF again and probably be plenty MBAs and PhDs looking for unsettling, unsavory, no redeeming value, absent of any sense of self worth worse than your first day in the recovery center employment, cheap.
There's ALWAYS opportunity out there for a motivated individual.
The other day I was walking through a section of Chinatown and noticed about a dozen shopping-carts chained and padlocked to street-signs to keep people from "stealing" them. I realized this was how the recycling collectors protect "their" shopping carts for gathering/transporting cans and bottles.
So it seems to me that "Shopping Cart Repo-Man" should be a position with a lot of current employment potential.
The life of a repo-man is always intense.
Awesome movie reference.
If only in 2012, every car had a "pine tree" air freshener, the GDP would be higher.
.
According to Bubbles, shopping carts can be a gold mine, but you don't get unemployment if you're out of work:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZX91SyQVsA
If you have access to a foundry, you can melt them down to mint your own chrome-steel coinage, too. HUGE potential. Just look at the numbers!
So that means we are doing good! right. I mean we all have phones and really its not that bad.
Looks like stocks will end green today despite all of the bad economic news and destruction caused by the storm. At least my miners and PMs are surging. Doesn't make a whole lot of sense.....
Larry, you're my hero.
Those jobs got rehypothecated (aka temp jobs).
I walked into an office the other day and there were "Your Job Has Been Canceled" signs taped to people's chairs. Now I understand why...
Dang
Another early release. I hate it when that happens.
Usually leaves a mess.
But why an early release??? Is it to make tomorrow's number of 80k seem bullish or at least stable, instead of heading off a cliff?
That dude Biderman from Sausalito,CA has it right. As long as payroll tax revenue is flat and debt is increasing parabollicaly, no jobs are being created.
the first step too recovery is admitting you have a problem... and then the true healing process? begins...
economic rehab 101
BRAVO Tyler !!!
So, they'll be cancelling about 500 points in the S&P when you say?
the US actually lost -17,400 manufacturing jobs
Holy shit D-Day, there were blanks in that gun!
Fuggin' Obongo... what are the odds that the MSM will cover this in detail... just like they are covering the Benghazi coverup...??? What is the latest on fast and furious?? Will this toxic 'roid be able to run out the clock before all this shit hits his fan??? And doesn't a Soros owned company provide the vote counting machines??? Judas, I think we are screwed again... where can I get a prayer rug, a catamite and some really foul body odor?
Let's be clear. Misinformation is intended to position the 99 percent for shearing by the financial swindle class; in other words malinformations' specific goal is to have the sheep obtaining new credit/DEBT, buying stocks/bonds, spending savings (because it's "safe" now, etc just before and leading up to the next engineered or delayed crash.... They are always positioning their victims on the wrong side of a massive trade they intend to make in the future. The trap is then sprung when enough of the beguiled have fallen into it such as when the stock market was crashed in 2008/2009 at the same time the financial cartel was bailed out. This was necessary to tide them over until the carnage was over and losses had been dumped on the 99'ers, again, just like during 1929 and 1930.
I am for repealing 90% of the laws currently on the books at the federal level and adding just one new law applicable to government, media, large corporations and most importantly the gigantic cartels such as those dominating the health and financial sector, among others.
Simply put it would proscribe our eras most prominent institutionalised sociopathic behavior, which forms the bedrock that their swindles are built upon and could be (bluntly) summarised as follows: YOU LIE, YOU DIE
So they are VOLUTARILY fessing up to changing their models? Nobody does that unless they were about to get called on the carpet against their will.
Which means, probably all they did was split the difference between the "fudged" number and the real one.
So for September....
+162K original reported
+88K "corrected model" reported, so if this is the "splitting the difference" number that means.....
+14K FOR REAL, FOR REAL (as they said in my old neighborhood). Probably about right.
Dear Republican At Heart Tyler Durden,
AKA: BALLS OWNED BY WALL STREET
The number of jobs you are all pissed off about
created in 2012 so far @ 1.17MILLION...
EQUALS 9.5 MILLION JOBS CREATED OVER 8 YEARS.
Now that is about 10X what the Republican Stupid Son Bush created over 8 years BEFORE 2008 FINANCIAL SHITFUCK.
DUH! Republican Conservatives Always Forgetting The Facts When Its Convenient
Dear Life-As-Dodgeball Perpertual Adolescent - Presidents don't create jobs.
They don't drive up the deficit through entitlement spending either....what's your point?
ADP is doing this for one reason: Politics. They're getting ready for a Romney win and so with more areas of coverage there's more reason for upticks in unemployment under a Republican presidency.
I can't wait to see how they come out with - 365k jobs a few days before the election because we all know the BLS is a shill for O at this time.
One of these days, on their way out, the president who is leaving has to tell the BLS to change their methodology and thus take the hit to his/her presidency but we'll all know that was the change over so its a mulligan and they'll look like Captain America - which is way good for a gov't official.
No meaningful change can occur politically until/unless we get someone elected who is *neither* D nor R.
The current major parties like everything just as it is.
Another Doubtful Prognostication
Does anyone think Obama benefits from this noise, honestly?
Most people see the economy first hand. So when you have been unemployed for 3 years and can't land a job at McDonalds, what are the odds you're going to believe the lies?
No one really believes this will change the election. This is just giving the media some cover so when they look foolish when Romeny wins they will blame the bamster's mishandling of Sandy and Benghazi. Most people made up their mind before the first debate, and the rest by the 30 minute mark of the first debate. Most people know that obama failed and those that cared just needed to make sure that Plan B wasn't too bad. Mitt certainly looks presidential and sounds reasonable and that is enough for most people. In reality, what can the president really do? Too bad more people won't think more about candidates that really can help/hurt their lives like city delegates and mayors, state legislatures, governors, etc. Bush didn't screw up Detroit, Baltimore, Philly, LA, Chicago, DC, etc. just like Obama couldn't help them. And in all of those communities and states, they keep sending the same morons that are robbing them blind.
Do the ADP PR people laugh at this garbage when they release these onion-like reports? This is just plain sad and these news regurgitating organizations just blindly spew this crap. We knew it was a joke a month ago and the usual people laughed at us. And now, they will just keep laughing at us. This ponzi scheme is going to end badly and we will likely get the last laugh even though it won't be very comforting.
It looks like the company is simply part of the propaganda arm of the democratic party. They'll be paid handsomely for their reports.
More lying with statistics.