ADP "Cancels" 365,000 Private Jobs Created In 2012

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Frequent readers know that in addition of any "data" and "numbers" out of Larry Yun's National Association of Realtors, which we openly boycott as these are consistently manipulated (recall the massive historical December 2011 revision), slanted and conflicted, the second dataset which we have mocked with a passion is anything coming out of the ADP, which every month releases its "Private Jobs" number a day before the official BLS Non-farm Payroll data. Today, our mockeries have been proven 100% spot on. The reason? A week ago, ADP announced that going forward it would coordinate with Moody's (yes, that Moody's), and especially its chief economist, SecTres hopeful (InTrade odds of actually attain that post: 0.00) Mark Zandi, to fudge adjust its data going forward. The data revision was supposed to be publicly disclosed tomorrow when the official October ADP number was released. Well, just like today's Chicago PMI, and so many other data points recently, this too was released early. What the early release allowed us to promptly calculate is that using the historically revised numbers, and comparing those based on the original methodology, in 2012 alone, the US would have lost a whopping... 365,000 private jobs! Putting thus number in context, according to the revised methodology, the US has generated only 1.172MM jobs in 2012 through September, or in other words, a statistical "fix" magically eliminated over 30% of what the market had previously expected were job gains, a number which the incumbent president has certain taken advantage of on more than one occasions while campaigning.

The chart below shows the old data series (which can still be found at the St. Louis Fed), and the new series, which can be extracted from the advance leaked press release. The cumulative difference is the black line. It needs no explanation.

What is also of note, is that had ADP used its revised methodology, it would have missed 5 out of the past 7 Wall Street consensus estimates.

As an added bonus, whereas according to the previous release, which we were lucky enough to tag here, the US generated +4,000 manufacturing jobs in September, the new release indicates that in the same month, the US actually lost -17,400 manufacturing jobs. Perhaps it is time to rerun the Ohio presidential speeches one more time...

And that is how "precise" supposedly the far more accurate ADP (at least in comparison to the NFP's wild X-12-ARIMA extrapolated goalseeked data) was historically.

Basically the "job creation" in America is and has always been a function of an excel spreadsheet, and seasonal fudge factors, as ADP just definitively confirmed.  As such, we look forward to the next "revision" which will eliminate a further 1.1 million private jobs in 2012, showing an economy that has added virtually no jobs in the current year. Luckily, what ADP also did, was professional suicide, as after this "recasting", absolutely nobody, except for the BLS of course which will now be forced to do a comparable datarevision, will take the New Jersey based company, and especially its Moody's Joint Venture, seriously.

To summarize: "If you think America created jobs, it didn't. ADP made that happen."

Look forward to ADP re-revising its numbers tomorrow, to make them once again fit in with the general narrative that things in America are, contrary to every indication, getting better.

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Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:53 | 2935106 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"ADP "Corzines" 365,000 Private Jobs Created In 2012"

Fixed it for ya Tyler.

<I don't know what happened. They were just here. Honest to God!>

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:52 | 2935108 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

I don't see how one of the largest payroll companies in the US needs to do anything to the data.  At the end of each month run "select count(unique (payee_id)) from paycheck table"

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:02 | 2935138 malikai
malikai's picture

No, raw numbers are unacceptable. The numbers must be adjusted by various metrics, heuristics, loltistics, and whatever. What will the people do with raw numbers? That's about as crazy as assuming they know what to do with their own money.

Now put your DBA hat down. It will do you no good in this world.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:20 | 2935187 fuu
fuu's picture

"loltistics" is a great word.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:47 | 2935284 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

malikai

Dude people have no idea what to do with their money.

Really do you think all poor people exist because "the man" oppresses them?

Give somebody a hundred bucks and see if they pay a bill or buy drinks.


Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:59 | 2935338 malikai
malikai's picture

No, I think we all tend to do plenty to oppress ourselves. But that hasn't got much to do with the question of whether or not we should have the right to our own production. Even stupid people have that right as well.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:59 | 2935544 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Gully Foyle said:

Give somebody a hundred bucks and see if they pay a bill or buy drinks.

What if they use it to pay off a bar tab?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:55 | 2935317 Karlus
Karlus's picture

Raw numbers also have the ability to be "off message" from the current "narrative." Understand that there is a "greater good" at play here. Dismal job numbers can be discouraging or troubling to the populace and helps no one.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:06 | 2935143 tradingdaze
tradingdaze's picture

Your mistake is expecting a relational, normalized database.

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:55 | 2935114 CrabGrassKila
CrabGrassKila's picture

Zandi just isn't (polite), Manly,

 

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:56 | 2935117 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

"The unemployment market has stabilized" ADP

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:06 | 2935144 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

In early October, ADP hoped to get the contract to print govmint unemployment checks.  Apparently ADP did not get the contract.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:20 | 2935419 HarryHaller
HarryHaller's picture

Maybe so, or maybe just not from this administration...

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:48 | 2935292 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Unprepared

No fucking way dude.

Until I see a line of unemployed white guys outside Home Depot working for Chinese wages, the unemployment market has not stabilized.


Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:59 | 2935541 Flatchestynerdette
Flatchestynerdette's picture

sure it has. 365,000 people don't have a job, haven't had a job, an haven't been reported to have a job. What's the difference right? Same thing - no jobs. *smdh*

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:59 | 2935127 Drachma
Drachma's picture

How nice to see they're working overtime at the Ministry of Truth. What a farce.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:00 | 2935130 govttrader
govttrader's picture

The jobs may be gone...but the S&P doesn't seem to have moved at all...

http://govttrader.blogspot.com/

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:00 | 2935131 Barry McBear
Barry McBear's picture

Tyler, adp cut ties with former FOMC member Larry "fed insider for sale" Meyer's Macroeconomic Advisors to join with Moodys.  Could Meyers firm be behind the severely upwardly biased numbers? Perhaps helping the fed improve confidence in the "recovery" by manipulating the jobs numbers was a way for the always competent Meyer to repay the fed for allowing him to sell all the insider info he gets from them.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:04 | 2935141 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Dear ADP, why is this so damn hard for you. Just release the raw numbers, no statistical models need be applied. We'll draw our own conclusions.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:04 | 2935142 Chartsky
Chartsky's picture

Obviously manipulated intentionally to affect next week's election.

Both "sides" make me sick!

There will soon be lynchings and rioting in the streets.

Electronic markets are already clearly fixed now, almost 100%.  The biggest reason there was such a push to get away from the pits.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:21 | 2935146 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Paging Jack Welch...Jack Welch... please report to the Vindication Room immediately !

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:03 | 2935353 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Dammit!  You beat me to it.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:57 | 2935539 Flatchestynerdette
Flatchestynerdette's picture

Jack Welch is in his mid-70s but the dude still has it going on. Immuelt can suck cheese whiz off of Obama's potatoes during their once a year business lunches to talk about how to get the country going. Seems the theme of the meetings was get the country going to china and put 365,000 people out of work in 2012 alone.

 

Wonder if they can backcheck to 2011 and see what the correction is for THAT?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:07 | 2935148 Flaming Ferrari
Flaming Ferrari's picture

=More QE 

=Bullish

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:13 | 2935167 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

how do you click on both arrows?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:22 | 2935193 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

is that you Mitt?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:29 | 2935221 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

its mittens to you

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:08 | 2935153 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Deep Shah has moved to ADP???  Can I still make fun of Moodys?  Cope&Change.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:10 | 2935157 khotel
khotel's picture

Is there any data point that will cause the markets to go all Baumgartner?  Doesn't look like it.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:21 | 2935190 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Already moving the markets up.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:22 | 2935191 edifice
edifice's picture

Jetson, yoooouuuu're cancelled!!

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:02 | 2935352 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

What ever happened to Mr. Spacely?  Probably got spoken to by HR.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:22 | 2935192 Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

Meanwhile, the confidence game board, I mean, the conference board, delayed release of its "all important" consumer confidence figure until to tomorrow for the safety of its employees and those that follow the measure (brian wesbury and steve liesman...when its improving). So expect a positive consumer confidence figure tomorrow as the conference board obviously doesn't want to waste the impact of the freshness of the positive surprise on this faux market, otherwise you can bet that a negative number would have been buried in Sandy's flying sand yesterday. 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:26 | 2935196 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

I never understood why ADP adjusts their numbers in any significant way. They are perfectly situated to report accurate data, especially for the private sector.

Paychecks cut and issued has to be about the best indication that someone has a job, and they also know the number of hours worked when that check is tied to an hourly wage.

The only adjustment warranted is when they lose a client and the month-over-month change needs to be adjusted accordingly.

How about simply reporting total paychecks issued with a few logical subsets:

Paychecks < 30 hrs (P/T hourly)

Paychecks > 30 hrs (full time hourly)

Salaried paychecks

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:52 | 2935524 Flatchestynerdette
Flatchestynerdette's picture

they also know if hourly wages are going up or down.

should be eezy peezy but some whiz kid with an app sold them the idea he was needed to run their jobs number division.

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:26 | 2935204 semperfi
semperfi's picture

What amazes me more is that people actually believe any of the "official" job numbers.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:41 | 2935259 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

...and the people most apt to believe the numbers are the ones without jobs. 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:26 | 2935205 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

There are tons of new economy jobs out there that aren't accounted for.
Roadside Nickle Canner Recycler.
Craigslist/Backpage Escort/Sex Worker.
Kidney/Organ Donor Broker.
Driveway Auto Repair/Detail Technician.
Pet Euthanasiaist.
Streetside Fried Cricket, Rat and Squirrel Vendor.
Day Labor Supervisor.
Basement Partion Builder.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:32 | 2935231 Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

posse comitatus recruits and ammo reloaders too

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:42 | 2935263 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

"Basement partition builder" caused a beverage spill here! It reminded me of a speach that POTUS gave early in his Presidency from a Home Depot telling the nation that having your windows recaulked, and adding insulation to the attic was the route to recovery.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:45 | 2935275 knukles
knukles's picture

The guy is brilliant!

(sigh, I'll miss him...)

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:53 | 2935314 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

iThingy screen cleaners

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:17 | 2935409 Abiotic Oil
Abiotic Oil's picture

Don't forget  Barry told us that, "We could save all the oil that they’re talking about getting off drilling – if everybody was just inflating their tires?"

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:58 | 2935334 Karlus
Karlus's picture

Please also add

Defragging hard drive

Using the self checkout at the grocery

Completing your own taxes (you will require a license for that next year)

Teeth cleaning

Wiping

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:08 | 2935378 knukles
knukles's picture

I've honestly been thinking about hiring somebody to scratch my back, pick zits, trim my toenails and otherwise fuss over my body.
TSHTF again and probably be plenty MBAs and PhDs looking for unsettling, unsavory, no redeeming value, absent of any sense of self worth worse than your first day in the recovery center employment, cheap.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:21 | 2935423 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

There's ALWAYS opportunity out there for a motivated individual.

The other day I was walking through a section of Chinatown and noticed about a dozen shopping-carts chained and padlocked to street-signs to keep people from "stealing" them.  I realized this was how the recycling collectors protect "their" shopping carts for gathering/transporting cans and bottles.

So it seems to me that "Shopping Cart Repo-Man" should be a position with a lot of current employment potential.

The life of a repo-man is always intense.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:55 | 2935533 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Awesome movie reference.

If only in 2012, every car had a "pine tree" air freshener, the GDP would be higher.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 16:35 | 2935622 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

So it seems to me that "Shopping Cart Repo-Man" should be a position with a lot of current employment potential.

According to Bubbles, shopping carts can be a gold mine, but you don't get unemployment if you're out of work:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZX91SyQVsA

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 17:34 | 2935749 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

If you have access to a foundry, you can melt them down to mint your own chrome-steel coinage, too.  HUGE potential.  Just look at the numbers!

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:26 | 2935207 irie1029
irie1029's picture

So that means we are doing good!  right.  I mean we all have phones and really its not that bad.

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