ADP "Cancels" 365,000 Private Jobs Created In 2012

Tyler Durden's picture

Frequent readers know that in addition of any "data" and "numbers" out of Larry Yun's National Association of Realtors, which we openly boycott as these are consistently manipulated (recall the massive historical December 2011 revision), slanted and conflicted, the second dataset which we have mocked with a passion is anything coming out of the ADP, which every month releases its "Private Jobs" number a day before the official BLS Non-farm Payroll data. Today, our mockeries have been proven 100% spot on. The reason? A week ago, ADP announced that going forward it would coordinate with Moody's (yes, that Moody's), and especially its chief economist, SecTres hopeful (InTrade odds of actually attain that post: 0.00) Mark Zandi, to fudge adjust its data going forward. The data revision was supposed to be publicly disclosed tomorrow when the official October ADP number was released. Well, just like today's Chicago PMI, and so many other data points recently, this too was released early. What the early release allowed us to promptly calculate is that using the historically revised numbers, and comparing those based on the original methodology, in 2012 alone, the US would have lost a whopping... 365,000 private jobs! Putting thus number in context, according to the revised methodology, the US has generated only 1.172MM jobs in 2012 through September, or in other words, a statistical "fix" magically eliminated over 30% of what the market had previously expected were job gains, a number which the incumbent president has certain taken advantage of on more than one occasions while campaigning.

The chart below shows the old data series (which can still be found at the St. Louis Fed), and the new series, which can be extracted from the advance leaked press release. The cumulative difference is the black line. It needs no explanation.

What is also of note, is that had ADP used its revised methodology, it would have missed 5 out of the past 7 Wall Street consensus estimates.

As an added bonus, whereas according to the previous release, which we were lucky enough to tag here, the US generated +4,000 manufacturing jobs in September, the new release indicates that in the same month, the US actually lost -17,400 manufacturing jobs. Perhaps it is time to rerun the Ohio presidential speeches one more time...

And that is how "precise" supposedly the far more accurate ADP (at least in comparison to the NFP's wild X-12-ARIMA extrapolated goalseeked data) was historically.

Basically the "job creation" in America is and has always been a function of an excel spreadsheet, and seasonal fudge factors, as ADP just definitively confirmed.  As such, we look forward to the next "revision" which will eliminate a further 1.1 million private jobs in 2012, showing an economy that has added virtually no jobs in the current year. Luckily, what ADP also did, was professional suicide, as after this "recasting", absolutely nobody, except for the BLS of course which will now be forced to do a comparable datarevision, will take the New Jersey based company, and especially its Moody's Joint Venture, seriously.

To summarize: "If you think America created jobs, it didn't. ADP made that happen."

Look forward to ADP re-revising its numbers tomorrow, to make them once again fit in with the general narrative that things in America are, contrary to every indication, getting better.

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Caracalla's picture

Looks like stocks will end green today despite all of the bad economic news and destruction caused by the storm.  At least my miners and PMs are surging.  Doesn't make a whole lot of sense..... 

houserich's picture

Larry, you're my hero.

Shizzmoney's picture

Those jobs got rehypothecated (aka temp jobs).

mayhem_korner's picture



I walked into an office the other day and there were "Your Job Has Been Canceled" signs taped to people's chairs.  Now I understand why...

jefe95's picture



Another early release.  I hate it when that happens.

insanelysane's picture

Usually leaves a mess.

But why an early release???  Is it to make tomorrow's number of 80k seem bullish or at least stable, instead of heading off a cliff?

Village Smithy's picture

That dude Biderman from Sausalito,CA has it right. As long as payroll tax revenue is flat and debt is increasing parabollicaly, no jobs are being created.

earleflorida's picture

the first step too recovery is admitting you have a problem... and then the true healing process? begins...

economic rehab 101

BRAVO Tyler !!!

ptoemmes's picture

So, they'll be cancelling about 500 points in the S&P when you say?

Being Free's picture

the US actually lost -17,400 manufacturing jobs

Holy shit D-Day, there were blanks in that gun!

loveyajimbo's picture

Fuggin' Obongo... what are the odds that the MSM will cover this in detail... just like they are covering the Benghazi coverup...???  What is the latest on fast and furious??  Will this toxic 'roid be able to run out the clock before all this shit hits his fan???  And doesn't a Soros owned company provide the vote counting machines???  Judas, I think we are screwed again... where can I get a prayer rug, a catamite and some really foul body odor?

Questan1913's picture

Let's be clear.  Misinformation is intended to position the 99 percent for shearing by the financial swindle class; in other words malinformations'  specific goal is to have the sheep obtaining new credit/DEBT, buying stocks/bonds, spending savings (because it's "safe" now, etc just before and leading up to the next engineered or delayed crash....  They are always positioning their victims on the wrong side of a massive trade they intend to make in the future.  The trap is then sprung when enough of the beguiled have fallen into it such as when the stock market was crashed in 2008/2009 at the same time the financial cartel was bailed out.  This was necessary to tide them over until the carnage was over and losses had been dumped on the 99'ers, again, just like during 1929 and 1930.

I am for repealing 90% of the laws currently on the books at the federal level and adding just one new law applicable to government, media, large corporations and most importantly the gigantic cartels such as those dominating the health and financial sector, among others. 

Simply put it would proscribe our eras most prominent institutionalised sociopathic behavior, which forms the bedrock that their swindles are built upon and could be (bluntly) summarised as follows:  YOU LIE, YOU DIE

NoDebt's picture

So they are VOLUTARILY fessing up to changing their models?  Nobody does that unless they were about to get called on the carpet against their will.

Which means, probably all they did was split the difference between the "fudged" number and the real one.

So for September....

+162K original reported

+88K "corrected model" reported, so if this is the "splitting the difference" number that means.....

+14K FOR REAL, FOR REAL (as they said in my old neighborhood).  Probably about right.

Republi-Ken's picture

Dear Republican At Heart Tyler Durden,


The number of jobs you are all pissed off about

created in 2012 so far @ 1.17MILLION...


Now that is about 10X what the Republican Stupid Son Bush created over 8 years BEFORE 2008 FINANCIAL SHITFUCK.

DUH! Republican Conservatives Always Forgetting The Facts When Its Convenient

thedrickster's picture

Dear Life-As-Dodgeball Perpertual Adolescent - Presidents don't create jobs.

blunderdog's picture

They don't drive up the deficit through entitlement spending either....what's your point?

Flatchestynerdette's picture

ADP is doing this for one reason: Politics. They're getting ready for a Romney win and so with more areas of coverage there's more reason for upticks in unemployment under a Republican presidency.

I can't wait to see how they come out with - 365k jobs a few days before the election because we all know the BLS is a shill for O at this time.


One of these days, on their way out, the president who is leaving has to tell the BLS to change their methodology and thus take the hit to his/her presidency but we'll all know that was the change over so its a mulligan and they'll look like Captain America - which is way good for a gov't official.




blunderdog's picture

No meaningful change can occur politically until/unless we get someone elected who is *neither* D nor R.

The current major parties like everything just as it is.

Dan Conway's picture

Another Doubtful Prognostication

batterycharged's picture

Does anyone think Obama benefits from this noise, honestly?

Most people see the economy first hand. So when you have been unemployed for 3 years and can't land a job at McDonalds, what are the odds you're going to believe the lies?


Dan Conway's picture

No one really believes this will change the election.  This is just giving the media some cover so when they look foolish when Romeny wins they will blame the bamster's mishandling of Sandy and Benghazi.  Most people made up their mind before the first debate, and the rest by the 30 minute mark of the first debate.  Most people know that obama failed and those that cared just needed to make sure that Plan B wasn't too bad. Mitt certainly looks presidential and sounds reasonable and that is enough for most people.  In reality, what can the president really do?  Too bad more people won't think more about candidates that really can help/hurt their lives like city delegates and mayors, state legislatures, governors, etc.  Bush didn't screw up Detroit, Baltimore, Philly, LA, Chicago, DC, etc. just like Obama couldn't help them.   And in all of those communities and states, they keep sending the same morons that are robbing them blind. 

Dan Conway's picture

Do the ADP PR people laugh at this garbage when they release these onion-like reports?  This is just plain sad and these news regurgitating organizations just blindly spew this crap.  We knew it was a joke a month ago and the usual people laughed at us.  And now, they will just keep laughing at us.  This ponzi scheme is going to end badly and we will likely get the last laugh even though it won't be very comforting. 

css1971's picture

It looks like the company is simply part of the propaganda arm of the democratic party. They'll be paid handsomely for their reports.

toomanyfakeconservatives's picture

More lying with statistics.