Chicago PMI Misses After Early Leak, Contracts; Employment At 33 Month Low

Tyler Durden's picture

Half an hour ago, just as the NYSE was preparing to unleash the AAPL selling onslaught, MarketNews released an errant PR in which it indicated that the Chicago PMI missed, coming at 49.9, or well below expectations of a 51.0 print. A few minutes ago MarketNews officially broke the Chicago PMI embargo early, and the early leak was confirmed, with the October PMI printing indeed at 49.9, a modest increase from 49.7 in September, but missing expectations for the third month in a row. And once again the headline belied how ugly the underlying data was, which as even MNI explained, saw the employment index slide to 50.3 from 52.0, and just barely above contraction. Either way, this was the lowest print in 33 months. Surely this will be enough for another massive NFP beat on Friday.

Third miss in a row for the broad index:

Below is a chart of the true employment situation in the US, unadjusted for Obama's reelection chances.

And the always entertaining respondent comments:

  • Like usual our 4th quarter is going to be busy, international orders are picking up, and domestic companies are picking up as well. We should be able to make up some ground on our projected numbers for the year in the 4th quarter.
  • Uncertain how government spending will impact the month of October and November. Aluminum prices increasing, but will it stabilize, which would be good for the industry.
  • Wow, things are getting interesting. It seems we are either heading for another crash or that we may be turning the corner. A few key chemical components have seen significant price increases.
  • Packaging and steel are stable and lower, respectively.
  • Foreclosure activity is increasing but so are investor purchases of these units.
  • Suppliers seem to either have or perceive to have more pricing power, with many attempting price increases.
  • Orders are continuing our way quoting has slowed somewhat but we are expecting a tsunami of new orders.

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buzzsaw99's picture

fuck. you. bernanke.

camaro68ss's picture

I 2nd that and raise you a crAAPLe

Manthong's picture

That Obama Hopium is really some potent stuff..

It’s something to see that Obama can keep the business barometer up, er, "idled" while production, new orders and back orders crash through the floor.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Can't be said enough.  Wait for it, he will get that inflation he's been looking for, but you and I won't like it or where it shows up.


Hedge accordingly.

Ruffcut's picture

Can't hedge. They don't have the TURD ETF,yet.

Long-John-Silver's picture

There is a TURD ETF. You would be shocked at the profitability!

LawsofPhysics's picture

You are correct.  Cleaning up people's shit has always been profittable.  I know one local boy who does very well with port-a-johns.  Teach your children how to become and undertaker, this is about to be a "growth" business, bigtime.

Eireann go Brach's picture

It was supposed to be 59.9, Obama just fired his assistant who faxed over the wrong paper this morning!

unrulian's picture

"I'm Kevin Henry, I'm here to rescue you"

Quinvarius's picture

The Morlocs have had their NYC Elowi sacrifice.  The machine can grind on for a while longer.  Happy Morlocs are bullish.

Dr. Engali's picture


"Wow, things are getting interesting. It seems we are either heading for another crash or that we may be turning the corner"


What kind of idiot responds like that?......duh gee George things are either getting better or they aren't..duhhhh


Cursive's picture

@Dr. Engali

This is the internal conflict that a person displays when one tries to deny one's senses.  My eyes must be lying because I don't want to believe the truth.

Cursive's picture


Wow, things are getting interesting. It seems we are either heading for another crash or that we may be turning the corner. A few key chemical components have seen significant price increases.


LOL.  Reads like this guy posts here.

Orly's picture

First Apple gets released early, then last night, UK consumer confidence was released early and now the Chicago PMI.

Anyone have any idea as to what in the wide, wide world o'sports is-a goin' on around here?

Quinvarius's picture

Yes.  I have an idea.  What is the one place that gets all these reports first?

Orly's picture

I don't know.  What is the one place that gets all these reports first?

Quinvarius's picture

Here is a hint: It has 236 year history of leaking information and corruption.

Orly's picture

236 years.  Hmmm.  That's a little older than me.  I give!

Orly's picture


That would imply some insidious coalition between politics and corporate and industrial titans and, while I do hate to burst your bubble, that's clearly illegal.


catacl1sm's picture

Tyler, you're assuming that they are going to release NFP on Friday. I heard rumors of no employment numbers before elecshun day.

Monedas's picture

Election window dressing !     All gov < 10% GDP and on a permanent glide path to 0%  !     It's a great place to start as a goal to shoot for .... and a great reference point to show how far we are from Libertarian perfection !     Liberterianism = 1 / Keynesianism !

youngman's picture

The NFP number was concocked two months ago at Obama´s HQ in Chicago..Its a done forms needed for this one

TideFighter's picture

I have 31 years of pefect business credit, maxed out D&B Paydex Score. Just got turned down by BB&T for a 30% LTV inventory loan. I was told that they would approve it if I collaterized a CD against it. WTF? I shouldn't have bought the staff Apple computers; they have dropped in value so much! )Now, that part was a joke). NO money for biz these days, not even using my house. I can't create debt and buy back shares to boost EPS! Hell, even IBM is past due to me 90 days. good thing I invested in the HMS Bounty. 

Orly's picture

Dude, that's awful.  IBM has in arrears account with you, seriously?

Best of luck!  Hang in there because things always happen for a reason.


GeezerGeek's picture

Too bad about the Boiunty replica. At least when I had my boating accident I only lost some gold, not the whole boat.

surf0766's picture

The Friday jobs report will be released. All manipulation is complete.

realtick's picture


Shizzmoney's picture

Mr. Manhattan could be on the ballot and even he couldn't fix this mess.