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Greece Releases Another Budget, Hilarity Ensues

Tyler Durden's picture





 

If the just released 2013-2016 latest re-re-revised budget out of the Athens Finance Ministry (whose basement was forever memorialized in the following picture) is all Greek to you, it's because it is. But even it wasn't, it would still be absolute gibberish and yet another failed study in the 'analysis' of animal entrails in order to predict the future. Why? We have extracted merely one data series: the brand new debt/GDP (ignoring for a second the -4.5% 2013 GDP forecast - already 0.5% worse than the just released IMF forecast for Greece for the same period and certainly worse than the May forecast of 2013 "growth"), and have compared it to the Debt/GDP "forecast" as of May 2010, when the first Greek bailout was announced. The numbers speak for themselves.

... Just a tad different, especially 2014, where the original forecast saw a declining debt/GDP of 144.3%, and now, two year later, this number is supposed to peak at 191.6%. Of course, in two years, when 2014 is a historical, the real number will have a 3 handle (and be triple digits for those confused).

The balance of the forecasts:

Obviously the numbers above are absolute bullshit.

Instead of commenting further, here is what we said back in May 2010, when the tradition of buying Greece on the forecasts was launched:

Greece just got bailed out so it can get into even more debt! What psychopath of the Keynesian school thinks that this unbelievable trajectory is anything but a complete and utter waste of money? German, and US taxpayers, are merely giving Greece money so it can increase it debtor status with French and a few other European banks. To say that this is a viable solution is something that only those who bow at the altar of Alan Greenspan can do.

Nearly three year later, and once again, spot on.

Finally, for those confused why Greece will never, ever be fixed until it is finally kicked out of the sinking European Titanic, here it is again: a picture of the interior of the Greek Finance Ministry:

 


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Wed, 10/31/2012 - 09:37 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
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Still better than the U.S., which hasnt had a passed budget in years.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 09:40 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Budgets are for poor people. America is rich, rich, rich - we have the world's best iPrinter.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 10:17 | Link to Comment Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

I always leave the gas station attendant a hundred dollar tip. That's worth, what, a couple bucks?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 09:41 | Link to Comment ACP
ACP's picture

The article forgot the music...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1D5Sa2Yq-2g

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 09:38 | Link to Comment BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

Hey there are binders in the shopping cart. I wonder if they are full of women?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 09:40 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

That picture proves to New Jersey that it could have been worse.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 09:39 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Nuke the Chicago school of economics from orbit and burn all it's graduates at the stake, it's the only way.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 09:39 | Link to Comment Jason T
Jason T's picture

they have a massive trade deficit too..

 

we never seem to talk about the "twin deficits" anymore.. US and Britain are basket cases as well.. so is India at over 10% of GDP to all.

 

Greece is in another world at 14.2% .. http://www.economist.com/news/economic-and-financial-indicators/21565237...

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 09:47 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

"Massive Trade Deficit" is a euphemism for "huge oil imports".

They burn 400,000 barrels of $100+ Brent every single day, and every Euro of that money leaves the country, and always will.

They have no hope whatsoever.  There is no fix for this.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 09:53 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Not all frogs in the pot make it to the stage where the water boils.  

Some die well before the rolling boil starts.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:07 | Link to Comment Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

Oh there's a fucking fix, it's just no one wants to face the reality of what things would be like "after the fix"..........so instead, we continue sprinting toward the abyss!!!

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:36 | Link to Comment hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

enquiring minds want to know where ireland got a trade surplus of 58 billion in the latest 12 months on the economist web site, when agriculture accounts for 60% to 65% of exports in Ireland and amounted to just 9 billion in 2011.

maybe they have more sheeple than sheep or people? suffice to say, the economist is less an authoritative souce of data than central banks and treasuries.

http://www.teagasc.ie/agrifood/

the economist is about as reliable as source of data as the BBC or CNN

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 09:41 | Link to Comment Mister Ponzi
Mister Ponzi's picture

Again, this is not a picture of the Ministry of Finance but of an Athen's office of the Greek version of the IRS.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 09:53 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

And the people that understood that mess haven't seen the inside of that office in a year.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 17:14 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Well and good -- why don't you supply a pic of the real finance ministry's interior?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 09:43 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

You fake the number so you can get the next "free money"...say whatever you have to to get it...but do nothing of course...its a politicians way...Its legal stealing..

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment Peterus
Peterus's picture

They and all their friends and cronies got a few extra years to steal whatever they can.

When the time eventually runs out they will get kicked out of office but not 1 Euro will be taken back and no real consequences will fallow. If they would try to really cut spending (not from 50% GDP to 48% GDP but to 25% GDP) they would get instant revolt of "public" workers and just get kicked out faster, before they could ransack all that money.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 09:48 | Link to Comment timbo_em
timbo_em's picture

As long as they cut the Greek debt by some 100B or so per year (totally voluntarily, of course), I think this plan is almost achievable.

 

btw: How on earth are they going to get to 136 percent in 2020? As far as I know those 136 percent are the latest IMF forecast for 2020.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 09:47 | Link to Comment alfa
alfa's picture

After three whole hours, the House approved the bill by Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras for privatization, while voting against the amendment for the inclusion of SMEs in stages-EOPYY.

The government-coherence-apparently managed to stay upright in the first critical crash test, but the coalition accepted losses PASOK MPs and KPS. "Present" in the amendment at issue-except-Mr Economou said the members of the Democratic Left, while absent from the room Fotis Kouvelis and Evangelos Venizelos, which commented via Twitter from John Manolis of Independent Greeks.

Also, members of PASOK voted against Article 4 of the Bill relating to information session for privatizations. Noted that the process was a roll call vote at the request of SYRIZA.

According to the announcement of the Bureau of the Parliament voted for a total of 293 deputies:

Rule 1: 173 YES / NO 120
Article 2: 148 YES / NO 139/6 PRESENT
Article 3: 156 YES / NO 135/2 PRESENT
Article 4: 146 YES / NO 121/26 PRESENT
Article 5: 158 YES / NO 135
Article 6: 173 YES / NO 120
Article 7: Amendment 136 YES / NO 143/14 PRESENT

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 10:27 | Link to Comment bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Article on why Greece's Golden Dawn - their far right neo-Nazi party, said to be polling around 15% now - is getting so popular ... apparently protecting Greek citizens against crime by immigrants, when people feel let down by the police:

« The Athenians of Amerikis Square are in no doubt about it - Golden Dawn, the far-right nationalist party many describe as neo-fascist - is to be thanked for cleaning up their neighbourhood.

"Immigrants used to just rob you. But in recent years they were also beating you up," says Katerina, a florist who has worked on the square for nearly two decades.

"They camped on the square. They would relieve themselves in plain view. They were constantly fighting amongst themselves. I don’t want to go home every evening wondering if I’m going to survive the wait at the bus stop," she says.

Katerina narrates how Africans mugged a fellow shopkeeper two doors away while she was opening her clothing boutique one morning. Some of her elderly clients say they have been mugged after picking up their pensions at the bank.

About a year ago, people started to call members of the Golden Dawn to escort them to the bank or to break up fights among immigrants. "Things have improved a lot since then," says Katerina, who didn't wnt to use her full name. "The first phone number people call is no longer the police. It’s Golden Dawn." »

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2012/10/2012102572921214294.html

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:22 | Link to Comment Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

Another 12 months of this shit in Greece, and Golden Dawn will capture a majority of this Country in free elections, and then TSWHTF and Italy won't be far behind!!

History Repeating and then that hot Greek track star will be back at the Olympics in 2016 carrying the Golden Dawn flag over her shoulder as she walks in the stadium, instead of being sent home in disgrace!!!

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 09:57 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

And the tall spires of Frankfurt , London are not wasteful.............

 

Greece is no better or worse then many other Euro trash economies .

 

It just that it serves as a conduit rather then national economy.

 

Euroland is the most extreme market state experiment yet created.........its not meant to work.

Its only objective is the collection of debt.

 

To do this it must run down capital systems....

The only debate withen Europe is how efficently those systems can be run down.

The friction withen Greece is that it more then any other state withen Euroland holds old nation state mechanisms : therefore these political systems get in the way of capital  run down.

The system therefore cannot express a profit under this archaic nation state system of control.

 

 Germany by contrast is a very efficent system - perhaps the most efficent on the planet - therefore it can express capital destruction as extreme profit into the medium term and perhaps beyond.

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 09:50 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Budgets are so last century....running without budgets is the new normal in the 21st century economy.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 10:32 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Here Dr. you and I can write the budget for Greece.

 

Military: 0

Public Service: 0

Unfunded liabilities:  0

Interest on debt:  Whatever the ECB prints Greece.

 

There, so simple it now matches the 0% tax collected on 0 money.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 09:50 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

They can play hardball.  The next tranche mostly services debt held by the IMF and ECB/EU.  They can start laughing about that in the media, about how it doesn't matter what their budget is -- most of the tranche just flows back out to the debt holders.

The EU/IMF  tranche just pays themselves and they use Greece as camouflage for it.  Samaras could get this money making no reforms at all.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 09:51 | Link to Comment slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

Man that ministry looks so organised.

Did Timmay gove them decorating advice?

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 09:53 | Link to Comment alfa
alfa's picture

The image of the Greek government is mildly unacceptable.
The measures announced are extreme frugality, are an outrageous recipe that will increase social tensions and cause more slowdown in the economy.
Some participants in the polls, and some are generally proving that the Government falters.
Nearing Recession in Greece, 30% is lost ie 1/3 of the country's wealth.
The image of the government is unacceptable.
Prime the anxiety not to miss the deadlines for the Eurogroup teleconference and the key Eurogroup on 12 November commits mistakes in strategy.
PASOK clipping or what is left of PASOK allilosparassete 45%.
Yesterday's image of the party proved that is under dissolution.
There PASOK is doubtful if he can get in the next parliament elections.
The KPS initially kept a technocratic attitude but ultimately left the climate has deteriorated.
The KPS did not know the steps?
Labor is a major problem but no doubt that will justify the position of voting against the government when some measures in other states will be present and others will vote?
What will be the reliability of the KPS after the enactment of measures and budget?
Though he exudes the image of the government is scrapping plans but the general assessment is that the measures will be adopted because no party wants to throw the government, not the dose released and break the country.
But the political conclusions drawn is that the Government Samara tends to evolve into Papademos government.
Society condemned the government and risk Papademos and Samaras Government to fall into serious disrepute and disgrace to society.
The government should adopt such measures as unacceptable if they are to ensure the dose because the dose without collapse is imminent.
However, the dose would be released but there is a serious risk that paid into a special account development disgrace to the country.
The political system once again proves that he can handle the fate of Greece.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 10:00 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"Obviously the numbers above are absolute bullshit."

that's nailed it

..and don't expect any other politicians maths to be any better than this Greek tragedy... Christine Lagarde thinks taxpayers can bailout Greece ..the head of the IMF is mathematically stupid beyond words

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 10:05 | Link to Comment Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

You know it's bad when the budget comes with a laugh track.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 17:18 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Yo, Senator Reid -- where's the U.S. budget?  MIA?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 10:06 | Link to Comment khotel
khotel's picture

It's been helpful to review several Hugh Hendry interviews on YouTube and be reminded that the "bailout" efforts have the objective of helping/saving the banks, not the country, and that the fundamental, unpalatable fact is that the problem is bigger than the political class can address.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 10:13 | Link to Comment edb5s
edb5s's picture

Well, at least they're not expecting any inflation.  Bullish!

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:18 | Link to Comment headadoor
headadoor's picture

Just another example of what our ECON 100 prof said the first day. "Just remember class if you put 12 economists in a room with one problem they will come with 13 solutions. What' this possible solution # 7 for Greece.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:46 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBoner_
MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

Simplistic I know but lets take a look at the misses in percentage terms. All figures are approximate (like the forecasts !;O)

2010 15%

2011 25%

2012 27% (looks like this will need to be revised :O)

2013 40%

2014 47%

So, whatever they "forecast" for 2015 should be about 55% shy of the truth !:O)

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:50 | Link to Comment Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

Awesome display of true economy mechanisms. More money wasted, more waste in return.

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