A Grim Preview Of This Friday's Jobs Number

Tyler Durden's picture


Following this morning's dismal employment sub-index from Chicago Fed PMI and the recent Philly Fed employment sub-index, the 'data' suggests that this week's (now confirmed by the BLS that NFP will be released on Friday as scheduled) payroll data could be the first negative print since September 2010. Of course, we are sure that pre-emptive Sandy 'action' and seasonal adjustments will explain away any miss from the current +125k estimate. Is this why the market is not levitating on moar broken windows?



(h/t Brad at Newedge)

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Wed, 10/31/2012 - 10:54 | 2934417 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Looks like it's time to put on our sliding pants.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 10:56 | 2934423 youngman
youngman's picture

I think putting on you Depends is more appropooooooo

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:44 | 2934884 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

Nothing Jim Messina, OFA and the BLS can't fix...


Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:38 | 2934541 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

I expect last month to be revised downward sharply so that this month can appear higher than it would otherwise.


I also expect to see a print of -20k when they are done.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:30 | 2934559 Atlasshruggedme
Atlasshruggedme's picture

There will be allot of work on the East Coast.. new houses, roads, power lines: you name it! - Prayers go out to all affected.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:35 | 2934588 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

Green shoots sprout over graves too, don't they?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 10:54 | 2934418 surf0766
surf0766's picture

It will be a great big beat !

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 10:55 | 2934420 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

We'll get a 7.5 or 7.6% number.  Bullish as we drop to 59% participation rate.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:02 | 2934456 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

5.4% will be the magic number to get this clown reelected so, dont even guess above that.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:05 | 2934467 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

Why stop there? We have achieved 0.1% unemployment!

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:22 | 2934532 madcows
madcows's picture

How about a -100% unemployment as everyone is working two jobs.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 10:56 | 2934422 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Impossible!! They gonna massage it to make sure it's awesome for Obama's reelection.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:20 | 2934524 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

You could have the hottest Thai girl masseuse rubbing this one but no matter what, for us, it's not going to have a Happy Ending...

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:08 | 2934431 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

There is no way the ministry of truth is going to put out a bearish number. Unemplöyment will tick down again and Obummer can say.."we are on the right track, don't switch horses now

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 10:58 | 2934435 GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

The October survey has been expanded to include all people who are Six Degrees from Employment

As long as you know someone who knows someone who knows someone who knows someone who knows someone who knows someone that is working, you will be considered employed

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:25 | 2934547 Curt W
Curt W's picture

If you sold anything, anything on E-bay, craigslist, yard sale, pawn shop,  well then you have a part-time job in retail

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:58 | 2934679 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

If you had to swipe your EBT card, then that is working.  Consumers will now be considered workers because they "add" to the GDP.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 10:59 | 2934440 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

jobs got corzined bitchez

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:09 | 2934971 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture



Where's the criminal prosecution?

On MF Global Anniversary Something Still Missing


Corzine Meets With MF Global Investigators

Progress on the criminal probe has been slow, and people involved with the investigation say it is increasingly likely that no criminal charges will be filed


Here are the real reasons Jon Corzine won't be going to prison


Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:00 | 2934446 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Time to slam some windows and fix the numbers again?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:01 | 2934449 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

When did the jobs recovery begin?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:02 | 2934450 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

THIS was NOT how conventional wisdom had things going 1 week before the wrap-up of 'election year!

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:02 | 2934452 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Abra Kadabra.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:07 | 2934485 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Maybe they'll give it another fake spike like in 2010.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:08 | 2934487 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

This is and has been a DEPRESSION.  However, it will never, ever be officially announced. 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:20 | 2934523 madcows
madcows's picture

Take out the government spent/borrowed trillions and the GDP would destroy the great depression numbers


Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:20 | 2934527 wagthetails
wagthetails's picture

hasn't the jobs number already been proven meaningless?  no reason to even report on it anymore.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:30 | 2934563 helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

We must penetrate below 1400 today. Penetration is crucial. Are you listening Kevin?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:48 | 2934650 Freewheelin Franklin
Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:31 | 2934565 Schlomo Bergstein
Schlomo Bergstein's picture

Interesting. Last time the Philly Fed Index was this low was just before the 2008 GFC...

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:39 | 2934610 This is the end
This is the end's picture

No way this is a negative number. If it was they could have easily delayed printing it until after the election on Sandy problems. The fact they are releasing it on Friday means they got a Sigma XII seasonal adjusted 7.2% unemployment with +200,000 jobs. Don't look now the Fed has resorted to propping AAPL using the same pattern as they do with SPY. Let all the volume sell in the first hour and plunge it, then slowly tickle-me-algo it higher the rest of the day. End of the day, presto, Green!

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 11:54 | 2934668 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture


Previous SPX & EURUSD buy support now being dominated by sellers as daily charts break down further.


Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:32 | 2934835 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

A NEGATIVE PRINT....!  Just in time for the TOTUS erection...!

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:39 | 2934856 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

They can never have a negative number until the shit ACTUALLY shits the fan. 

The corporate-run government needs to keep giving "the economy" (i.e. the suckers) confidence going into the XMAS season.

2013 is when reality finally hits.  Doesn't matter who is in office (it will be Obama).  That's when we will finally figure out we are back in (or still in) recession, as noted by Lak Achuthan of ECRI, who said you don't know it's a recession until 6-8 mths after.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:54 | 2934927 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Barry is  trying to block the release of this report until after Tuesday.


Anyone smell Romney landslide?  Media carry water for Barry and much of the pollsters do too.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:11 | 2935387 Heyoka Bianco
Heyoka Bianco's picture

Have to agree, no way this is a negative print. The BLS would gain nothing with the truth now. If Obama wins, their balls are in a sling. If Romney wins, he'll feel they could fuck him at a crucial time, and their balls are in a sling. Fake-ass numbers (probably not September-sized fake) and a downward revision in March 2013 (so whoever's in office can claim "job growth" in June).

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