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Guest Post: The Financial Super-Storm of 2013

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

The next "Frankenstorm" to hit New York will be financial.

The destructive whirlwind that hits New York in 2013 will be a financial Frankenstorm.

Four years of glorious central-planning "extend and pretend" have enriched the political and financial Aristocracies, and imbued them with a bubble-era hubris that they have indeed gotten away with murder: the $6 trillion the Federal government borrowed over the past four years, the Fed's $2 trillion in fresh cash, the Fed's $16 trillion bailout of the banking sector and various perception management manipulations have righted the storm-tossed ship. All those with power in 2008 remain in power and all those with outsized wealth in 2008 still hold their outsized wealth.

The global tsunami of borrowed and printed money lifted the water-logged dinghies of the debt-serfs enough to give them hope of better times; meanwhile, their adjusted income has declined 8%: they are poorer while the neofeudal Aristocracy is much wealthier: same as it ever was, right?

Except the financial tides and winds have shifted, and the linearity of central planning is about to be disrupted by nonlinear, positive-feedback storms. Let's list a few of the major storms brewing:

1. Destabilization of the euro. I have covered the fundamentals many times here:

 

The European Model Is Also Doomed (February 7, 2009)

When Debt-Junkies Go Broke, So Do Mercantilist Pushers (March 1, 2010)

Why the Euro Might Devolve into Euro1 and Euro2 (March 2, 2010)

Why The European Union Is Doomed (March 28, 2011)

Why the Eurozone and the Euro Are Both Doomed (June 23, 2011)

Three More Reasons the Eurozone Is Doomed (September 22, 2011)

Yet Another Reason Why the Euro Is Doomed (October 17, 2011)

EU Leaders Throw Europe a Plutonium Life Preserver (October 27, 2011)

What's Lost With the Demise of the Euro? Only What Was Unsustainable (November 22, 2011)

A Crazy Idea That Might Just Work: Greece's New Currency, the U.S. Dollar (May 14, 2012)

The Tiresome Eurozone Soap Opera Has Entered Re-Runs (June 18, 2012)

Sorry, Bucko, Europe Is Still in a Death Spiral (July 2, 2012)

2. The U.S. dollar will rise significantly, crushing overseas corporate profits that have lofted the U.S. stock market ever higher. I have covered the many positive feedbacks that will continue pushing the dollar higher. Dollar goes up, stocks go down.

What's Hated Most May Be a Contrarian Buy (U.S. Dollar) (April 19, 2011)

About Those Permanently Rising Corporate Profits... (August 12, 2011)

Why the U.S. Dollar Is Not Going to Zero Anytime Soon (July 23, 2012)

What Will Benefit from Global Recession? The U.S. Dollar (October 9, 2012)

3. The "China Story" runs off the rails. We are feeling the first stiff breezes from China's tidal paradox: as it starts pushing its neighbors around, resuming its Imperial ambitions, it undermines the source of its wealth, its export machine.

China has placed an informal boycott on Japanese goods as a result of the Senkaku Island conflict, which by the way cannot be resolved in the current paradigm. China, Japan and the Senkaku Islands: The Roots of Conflict Go Back to 1274 (September 25, 2012)

China's newfound wealth was always more fragile than true believers in the "China Story" could fathom. China had what it took to go from rural backwater to global industrial power, but it lacks the necessary foundation to move beyond that stage. Once the Eurozone and U.S. economies gather downward momentum, the export machine's inefficiencies and malinvestments will catch up with it.

And once that happens, the real estate bubble's inefficiencies and malinvestments will catch up with it.

China: Ascendant Superpower Or Just Another Nation with Structural Problems? (April 24, 2009)

China and the U.S.: Dysfunctional Real Estate Bubble Twins (January 21, 2010)

The Myth of "Decoupling" and the Chinese Consumer (September 14, 2010)

Why China's Housing Bubble Is Unsustainable (September 16, 2010)

Why The Wheels Are Falling Off China's Boom (June 15, 2011)

There are structural dynamics in play that supercede any national policy.

Neofeudalism, neocolonalism, financialization, centralization and consumerism have all reached the stagnation-decline phase on the S-curve.

Neofeudalism and the Neocolonial-Financialization Model (May 24, 2012)

The Master Narrative Nobody Dares Admit: Centralization Has Failed (June 21, 2012)

Financialization's Self-Destruct Sequence (August 16, 2012)

Is Anybody Else Tired of Buying and Owning Stuff? (September 7, 2012)

When these financial storms arise and feed each other, Wall Street and New York will experience losses that will exceed the hurricane Sandy damage by an order of magnitude, for the Wall Street Status Quo will crumble under its own dead weight.

 


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Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:43 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

bloody hell this storm was supposed to be here Sept 2011. NO ONE the fuck knows when she'll blow. pull all the charts in the world and you just can't guage with this unprecendented central bank meddling.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:44 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Stocks are going to collapse!  Europe is going to collapse!  King Dollar!

'If A then B' fallacy, bitchez....

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:52 | Link to Comment krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Operation Sandy Condom; Sandy for our 1st Frankenstorm and it's abrasive quality and Condom because: "A condom allows for inflation, halts production, destroys the next generation, protects a bunch of pricks and gives you a sense of security whilst you are actually being fucked..."

(thanks to 'tocointhephrase' for that last)

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:04 | Link to Comment Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Seems alongside all the problems listed would be a helpful couple of columns. 

1) what is the likely countermeasure (print, change FASB, CME margin hijinks, CB swap lines, etc.)?

2) who among the global PTB would be served by a collapse and how would they position themselves for said collapse (close to the printers, buy real assets, etc.)?

Myself and many ZH'ers have grown agnostic on a '13 collapse (collapse, period) which means it's far more likely than most of us believe

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:31 | Link to Comment dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

#2 = IMF "Chicago Plan".

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:37 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

#7 war against anyone who refuses trade their commodities in dollars

 

well boys and girls. you live in American Empire. Make no mistake where and why you are "richer" than others.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 19:52 | Link to Comment Half_A_Billion_...
Half_A_Billion_Hollow_Points's picture

our empire's rapidly imploding.  It won't be a slow process.

 

The twin towers once looked mighty too. 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:05 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

True wisdom says nothing about our near future is ascertainable given the incredible, historic amount of meddling in the markets by the (fiat) money/debt manufacturers.

If you bought, sold or held anything in the last 4 years, you could be right, wrong, happy, or sad, completely dependent on your exist, entrance or stay put point(s), which theoretically could have been the product of deliberative thought & analysis and the correct decision, but was far more likely to have been just a gamble, or shot in the dark.

Welcome to the age of infinite uncertainty, in a brave new world aka SSDD) whose intermediate fate is thought to be (but which actually is not) sponsored by full fractional reserve central bank meddling.

IT WAS the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way- in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.

 

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:06 | Link to Comment El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

why do all trend charts look like the one above or this one:

http://www.thehorizonproject.com/earthquakes.cfm

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 17:05 | Link to Comment TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

 

 

charts in our dimension are the inverse of timewave zero

Charts will revert back like you knew them before once we pass through.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:53 | Link to Comment john39
john39's picture

in its early stages, World War II in Europe was referred to as the 'sitzkreig'... 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:54 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

No Gold is the King when TSHTF

watch how they will ramp this bitch up by closing today.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:54 | Link to Comment Jason T
Jason T's picture

Martin Armstrong knows.. 2015-2017

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:00 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I like Martin , but I believe he is overly optimistic with that time frame.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:14 | Link to Comment seek
seek's picture

They're really good at kicking cans. When I've done my own analysis using Fed/CBO/Comptroller numbers, I keep winding up with 2016-2018, so I don't think Martin is all wet.

Thing is, we also know that the situation is highly non-linear, and the interventions have made it more so. Black swan amplifier. If we don't have an trigger event, I think the collapse will happen organically around 2016-ish, but if there is, you could very well be right.

The right combination of the wrong events could make the whole thing blow up in just a few weeks.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:36 | Link to Comment anarchitect
anarchitect's picture

Martin is a numerologist.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:37 | Link to Comment Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

he is an inflationist one day and a deflationist the next.

kinda like hugh hendry

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:47 | Link to Comment Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

While I do not like Kiyosaki, his book Rich Dad's Prophecy, published in 2004, mentions 2016 as when TSHF.

http://www.silvermonthly.com/rich-dads-prophecy-why-the-biggest-stock-ma...

When I read the book, I agreed with his premise, but not how to prepare for it.

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:54 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You're right nobody knows when it will blow, but it sure feels like its being held together with old duct tape and cracked superglue.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:23 | Link to Comment Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

It always feels like it's right around the corner... until it actually is. Then we're all like "HOLY FUCK BATMAN, NO ONE SAW THAT COMING." But actually, we did.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:46 | Link to Comment odatruf
odatruf's picture

My grandfather held his upper dentures together with black electrical tape for more than 30 years. True story.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 23:05 | Link to Comment GlobalCtzn
GlobalCtzn's picture

Made me smile. I suspect your Grandfather was smarter and tougher than these clowns 'trying' to hold this house of cards together.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:21 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

vast-dom

If we aren't kept in a current state of fear, how will we be controlled?

If we aren't constantly reminded of bad news no one would come here.

Don't view it as a collapse so much as a remodel.

The Soviet Union was a test case.

Some of the bugs were worked out, some are still being worked out in Europe.

"
My time coming, any day, don't worry bout me, no
Been so long I felt this way, ain't in no hurry, no
Rainbows end down that highway where ocean breezes blow
My time coming, voices saying, they tell me where to go"

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:30 | Link to Comment Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

100+ years of public schooling, MSM, and big corporations has destroyed the sanctity of information. The moment we stopped valuing information as a collective asset and started handing ownership of information to individual entities is when all went down the shitter (and this happened a looong time ago before the New World... or even the Old World). But no one gives a fuck, do they, not even at the expense of the collapse of everything. Let's go win some patent cases in some rigged courts and circlejerk each other to QEternity.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:46 | Link to Comment aerojet
aerojet's picture

I'd rather live now that 100 years ago.  1912, yikes. 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:57 | Link to Comment Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

The monkeys these days take every damn convenience for granted. I think it would have been a more fulfilling life without radio, TV, etc. Imagine having to play music in order to hear music.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:36 | Link to Comment BigJim
BigJim's picture

If you'd been around back then you'd probably think like they did back then, too. So you'd have been a happy doughboy off for some sporting Hunshooting in Europe.

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:42 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

King Dollar!

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:50 | Link to Comment LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

Is that you Tom O'brien in da house?? Is this me?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:01 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Where does Smith think the USD will find support around the world? This kind of analysis is pure fucking lunacy.

He's been repeating this "strong doelarr" mantra for two years now.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:02 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

To be fair, BoP, I suspect that rather than a "strong dollar", he means a less weak dollar --- less weak than its major fiat competitors, anyway.  But I agree, it is still bullshit.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:43 | Link to Comment vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Sooooooo you're saying everything is fixed?

 

Well buy buy buy then.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:44 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

When the ship goes down, youd better be ready

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:44 | Link to Comment 11b40
11b40's picture

Eventually.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:44 | Link to Comment Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Tyler,

Lets get this last two months of bullshit out of the way first.  Isreal has other plans for America long before 2013 pop up.

And if Robomany gets his arse on the seat, good fucking chance 2013 might be post-poned mate.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:44 | Link to Comment Sven Gali
Sven Gali's picture

"When these financial storms arise and feed each other, Wall Street and New York will experience losses that will exceed the hurricane Sandy damage by an order of magnitude, for the Wall Street Status Quo will crumble under its own dead weight."

Yeah, but the Yankees should be better.  So, we got that going for us.....which is good.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:45 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

So long as people accept paper promises in exchange for their labor, this can go on for a while.

When it does blow however, you better make damn sure that your labor is of real value or you have some other asset of real fucking value to offer in exchange.

Bring it motherfuckers, and fuck the paper-pushers and bernanke.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:17 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

LawsofPhysics

Value is relative and cultural. It reflects the society of the time.

Korzybski, the Semanticist, pointed out that anything of real value (RESCOURCES) has been bought up long ago by TPTB.

Labor has value. Skilled labor has more value.

But how does one put a price on their labor?

I just read some guy got pissed at telemarketers and told them his time was worth $16 per hour. He has taken some to court for payment.

Then again most of the world survives on less than a dollar a day.


Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:32 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Do you have a fucking point?  Nobody owns shit.  In a world where fraud is the status quo.

POSSESSION is the fucking law.  Be it immediate defensible possession, or possession by force.

Fuck semantic bullshit, if you don't possess fresh water, food, or fuel, you die.

Can the people of the earth become more efficient at survival?  Maybe.  

I guess we all get to find out now.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 18:46 | Link to Comment helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

It all rolls into one and nothing comes for free,
There's nothing you can hold (own), for very long.
It seems like all this life was just a dream.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:21 | Link to Comment earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

I take it you own productive acerage.

I've been thinking of moving cash to purchase farmland. Got any references on what to consider when purchasing land for crop production?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:33 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, and you are about 20 years behind the curve.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:52 | Link to Comment odatruf
odatruf's picture

You need less than you think and the best thing to understand is your growing region. Unless you want to supply crops for more people than just your family and close friends, even a 1/4 to half acre will produce a lot. You mentioned only crops, but if you want any livestock besides chickens, then you'll need more of course.

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 16:54 | Link to Comment MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

Start reading. There were a lot of so-called counter-culture books written in the 1970s about going back to a simpler place and time.

If you are really serious, look up your state's county extension serivce. They help farmers and others. There is a ton of good stuff out there. I found a complete plan in Excel for a walnut farm:

www.agmrc.orgCommodities & ProductsNutsBlack Walnuts

First, you need to sober up to working 16 hour days and then you're ready to work the land. Grow something and share it. You'll find a lot of supporters pretty quickly that way.

Five Acres and Independence- see URL for $3 copies of it

http://www.alibris.com/booksearch?qwork=8380152

Finding and Buying Your Place in the Country- essential land buying info

-Essential Whole Earth Catalog

-Square Foot Gardening

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:46 | Link to Comment Tango in the Blight
Tango in the Blight's picture

I wish I had made a career in farming, carpenting or plumbing instead of business administration. :(

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:49 | Link to Comment odatruf
odatruf's picture

Unless you are already over 60, it isn't too late.

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:23 | Link to Comment El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

I said the same thing about engineering in the manufacturing sector. Brother!

And I remember my father saying the same thing about the auto industry.

Truth is in this country it pays to have two careers. (or two divergent degrees)

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:45 | Link to Comment RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

I chose printing (money) and kicking (the can, down roads) working out well so far

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 16:12 | Link to Comment SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

+ 1000 El Viejo

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 17:01 | Link to Comment bigrooster
bigrooster's picture

Why wish?  Just make it happen.  I have a business administration degree also.  Two years ago I bought a rental and remodled it myself.  I learned all of the construction, plumbing and electrical skills that I needed.  Then several months ago I bought 40 acres of farm/ranchland.  I grow a garden in my backyard and have four chickens.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:46 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Probably less looting going on after that storm than in NYC at the moment.  New Yorkers are friggin cockroaches.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:26 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

They just postponed the World Series looting they expected to have when the Yanks won.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:43 | Link to Comment Vooter
Vooter's picture

Oh, please...I hate the Yankees (I'm a Mets fan), but this isn't Denver, or Montreal, or Vancouver, or Detroit, or Chicago, or Los Angeles, or Lexington, KY...this is New York. We don't riot when our sports teams win--we celebrate...we pretend that we've been there before, because we have....

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:06 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

New York rules, fuckers.  Haters hate.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:53 | Link to Comment HangSorosHigh
HangSorosHigh's picture

"Is Anybody Else Tired of Buying and Owning Stuff? (September 7, 2012)"

 

That's the sort of question you'd ask at the top of the cycle, not during the shitty recovery afterward.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:19 | Link to Comment El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Problem is so many near term retirees are asking themselves that very question right now and it is the biggest slug of the population. 

Open the floodgates and let in all foreign professionals with appetites to buy buy buy!

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:53 | Link to Comment govttrader
govttrader's picture

Interestingly, basic market technical patterns, even on very low volumes, seem to be holding.

http://govttrader.blogspot.com/

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:54 | Link to Comment DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

"You and your friends better batten down the hatches, 'cause when it hits you're all gonna wonder how you ever thought you could live so large and leave so little for the rest of us." --Selina Kyle

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 12:56 | Link to Comment Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

The Euro will be fine and it will unseat the dollar.

Real defaltion and de-financialisation is going on in Europe in a big way.

 

The Entire Eurozone Financial Sector Is Now Smaller Than Australia's Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-entire-eurozone-financial-sector-is-now-smaller-than-australias-2012-8#ixzz2AteQdenu
Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:13 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Real defaltion and de-financialisation is going on in Europe in a big way."

----------------------------------------------------------------

So europe is now paying for their oil with gold or some other real asset or commodity/technology?  Why don't I see that happening.  Paper is paper is paper.  Just the same, holding euros or yuan won't hurt as we all go to parity.  All according to plan.  All you need to look at are the number of dollars, Euro, and Yuan that exists on someone's balance sheet somewhere.  Hedge accordingly.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:44 | Link to Comment Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Paper is paper.... That is what every closet dollar lover says.

Paper and digital currency work fine as a medium of exchange only. The whole problem is medium of exchange denominated savings.  Eliminate that and you solve the problem.

Gold is too valuable to use as an MOE. Its only role is to store value.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:53 | Link to Comment Overfed
Overfed's picture

Ben? Is that you?

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:04 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Apparrently you can't read.  I hold lots of fiat currencies as well as other mediums of exchange.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:03 | Link to Comment Calidreaming
Calidreaming's picture

All this will lead to is the - daily 3 PM fed rampfest- set your clocks .

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:07 | Link to Comment Atlantis Consigliore
Atlantis Consigliore's picture

$ 100 B loss GDP is at least 1% to 4th qtr, RECESSION. 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:23 | Link to Comment AGuy
AGuy's picture

SANDY will improve the 4th Qtr GDP as consumers & businesses spend to repair the damage done. The money will come from savings and insurance. It will probably delay another recession to the 2nd Qtr of 2013, when the spending ends and people have to payoff all of the bills and the insurance companies raise their rates.

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:38 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

Unless insurance covers a big chunk of it, there won't be repairs. Home owners can't afford repairs like that and they sure as hell don't have time to fix it all themselves.

The opposite is probably closer to the truth. Homeowners are tapped out, now homeless or living in a broken home, not spending or spending less on the all important Thanksgiving and Christmas retail bonanzas.

Depression has just arrived.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:48 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Just think, thousands more mortgages are now underwater, literally.

Time to bail out Wall Street!

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 16:37 | Link to Comment AGuy
AGuy's picture

While many are tapped out, There are some that do have some savings. They will spend money on repairs.  Also consider anyone with a Mortgage requires home insurance. Even people with no money, will still by tarps and duct tape to patch a broken window.

Also consider all of the line men and Tree men getting paid overtime to fix power lines and clear the roads. Police, Firemen, DOT, etc will also have increased overtime. This add to the  GDP for this Quarter.

This spending its enough to make real economic growth, but it will likely create a short period, but pulling forward demand. After the repairs are done, consumers will double down on spending cuts.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 16:14 | Link to Comment John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

Sure, that broken window theory worked out real well for Japan after the Tsunami didn't it?  You don't decrease entropy by destroying things.  And life and economic development is only about decreasing entropy. 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:01 | Link to Comment northerngirl
northerngirl's picture

It will not be called a Recession, it will just be called a slow down due to head winds of Sandy.  Everything will be fine - NOT.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:07 | Link to Comment freedogger
freedogger's picture

ADP Prematurely Posts Major Downward Revisions To September Jobs Numbers:

http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/docs/ADP_NER_Report_Details.pdf

 

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:12 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

boom motherfuckers, welcome to the "information age".  - FAIL.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:27 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

ADP must be afraid that an employee was going to rat them out after the election.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:10 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

I went short in May of 2009 and have been waiting for the collapse ever since. I am tired of supporting them. Proceed with the financial storm please.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:47 | Link to Comment helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

You went short two years before I did. 

My skull has been burning since Oct 3rd, 2011.

Please make it stop and collapse already!

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:49 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Something, something, irrational something, something solvent.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:56 | Link to Comment odatruf
odatruf's picture

I did exactly the opposite. I put everything I could scratch together into a new business in late 2010. So far, it's working out quite well.

I have faith those in power will look after their own interests well enough to hold off the collapse for much longer than we all think.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 18:36 | Link to Comment helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

I hear you. I never sold the short etf because of my faith they will really fuck this up and because I hate selling at a loss. That was my last trade, 10.03.2011, and have been saving evr since waiting for the right opportunity. My investing skill is hoit and miss; like tossing a coin, so I save. What I should have done instead of losing chips at the casino (market).

I'm glad you are doing well.

I constantly think of doing the same. When I see a, really, good opportunity I will pull the trigger. I just haven't seen the right niche.

GLTU

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:56 | Link to Comment Tango in the Blight
Tango in the Blight's picture

You should have bought gold instead.

Even if you win you'll get soon-to-be worthless Benny Bux.

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:16 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

When these financial storms arise and feed each other, Wall Street and New York will experience losses that will exceed the hurricane Sandy damage by an order of magnitude, for the Wall Street Status Quo will crumble under its own dead weight.

 

Wishful. Thinking. Only. The parasite never dies first.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:16 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

ADP revised their September number by 50%!  WTF????  How does ADP not know how many checks ADP is processing each month and whether or not that number is lower or higher than the months before?  Has ADP started hiring BLS employees???  I used to feel comfortable with ADP handling my payroll but now I that needs a rethink.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:23 | Link to Comment irie1029
irie1029's picture

Check out Paychex they do a good job.  We switched years ago and had only minor issues which were caused by gov.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:26 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

thanks

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:27 | Link to Comment surf0766
surf0766's picture

The ADP story just got burried

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:29 | Link to Comment irie1029
irie1029's picture

Damn those bastards!

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:27 | Link to Comment AGuy
AGuy's picture

"Has ADP started hiring BLS employees??

FWIW: ADP said a few weeks ago that they were going to change their models to more closely follow the BLS. I don't recall them specifying the reason for the change.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:28 | Link to Comment surf0766
surf0766's picture

ADP=NAR

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:19 | Link to Comment whidbey-2
whidbey-2's picture

If one line invectives were constructive we would discover our problems were solved.  The current world is just not a one line problem. So, most of the participants here find themselves confused and angry.  Hardly worth the effort to come to Zero any more.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:34 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

I must say that this 2 line invective just leaves me so confused and just gosh darn angry that I could kick KH in the nuts for being part of the problem.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:48 | Link to Comment Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

"The current world is just not a one line problem.  So, most of the participants here find themselves confused and angry."

This almost screams the next line: "So they cling to guns or religion".  Nothing is more fun than being lectured by a pseudo-intellectual who likes to use words like "invectives" to cover up the issue of having absolutely nothing to say of any actionable value.  

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:20 | Link to Comment emersonreturn
emersonreturn's picture

what a different world we would inhabit if the money had been loaned at 4 or 5% to individuals and small business with a good business plan.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:25 | Link to Comment Stanley Lord
Stanley Lord's picture

The idiot liberal voters in NJ can not see their power restoration is being held hostage by unions controlled by Democrats.

How about privatizing PSE&G and take control away from the politicians.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:59 | Link to Comment odatruf
odatruf's picture

PSE&G is a private company. See: http://www.pseg.com/family/history.jsp

Now what?

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:28 | Link to Comment SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

I disagree, the senkaku islands aren't a boon for anybody, any resource wealth found there will go to those to reclaim it, not their respective govts, most folks of both nations don't give a shit, and if given the choice would gleefully handcuff their leadership to each other on those islans to eat each other, China's empty cities can be filled in a nano second, they have hundreds of millions of workers sleeping in bunk beds in dormatories.

As far as all the bad debt, they can keep printing and losing forever, there is no collapse, there is no world war, both are too expensive and cut future earnings.  

Its just easier to print and buy. 

It pays to be our friends, look at Putin and Ye Gon both setting public policy. 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:31 | Link to Comment janchup
janchup's picture

 A stopped clock is correct at some point.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:39 | Link to Comment surf0766
surf0766's picture

Not in Amerika !

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:51 | Link to Comment Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

In Amerika, Clock stops YOU!

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:42 | Link to Comment object_orient
object_orient's picture

My old digital clock froze up. I'm still waiting for the 88:88 hour.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:39 | Link to Comment rosethorn
rosethorn's picture

The actual defense cuts that would result from the fiscal cliff for the year 2013 are only $55 billion...see Fiscal Cliff Spending Cuts in a Nutshell.

 

That's only a drop in the bucket when you see how defense spending has been increasing exponentially...at Scary Defense Spending Trend.  Defense spending doubled between 2001 and 2010.

 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:33 | Link to Comment odatruf
odatruf's picture

And of course, there will be no real "cut". That would mean we spend less next year than this year. Or even that we spend less once inflation is factored in. But we won't see either of those happen. The so called "cuts" are compared to the ramped up spending increases that had been planned.

Only in Washington are these cuts...

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:40 | Link to Comment backhandtopspin...
backhandtopspinslicer's picture

The paper fiat government stink cheese that is the dollar is of course a form of FINANCIALIZATION!!! So do not show me a chart showing the collapse of financialization and tell me in the same article the dollar will have massive strength -- that is a big contradiction boy!!!!!!

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 13:44 | Link to Comment Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

 

Spreaking of survivors:  wife was flying recently, sitting next to a guy leaving Maine after a season lobstering.  No post-secondary education.  Had his summer savings in his bag:  $20K cash.  He gets paid in cash and buys gold; been doing it for 8 years. 

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:08 | Link to Comment Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

good for him! I wish I had been so wise with my choice of procession. Though I make almost five times in gross income my net is barely 40k for a years worth of work. I thought I was so smart becoming a professional 30 years ago...what a poor deluded fool I was. Now I'm just a glorified tax slave.

Miffed:-)

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:34 | Link to Comment irie1029
irie1029's picture

Thats damn good as lobster prices are pitifully low.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:38 | Link to Comment odatruf
odatruf's picture

An ex-gf has a brother who lobsters in Maine half the year and then fishes for tuna the rest of the year. His lobster income is small, but it is enough to cover his expenses for the whole year. The tuna money, which is like playing the lottery, is what he stashes away and uses for play money.

All of it is hard work, but it's honest, real and he likes it even though he understands that he can maybe do it until he is 45. After that, he hopes he can hire on someone younger who will want to learn and then take it all over.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:46 | Link to Comment bobbydelgreco
bobbydelgreco's picture

he is right in the end ben loses & the dollar takes off you think we are a mess look out into the world the ? is when i don't know but 13 seems soon

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:49 | Link to Comment object_orient
object_orient's picture

 "China had what it took to go from rural backwater to global industrial power, but it lacks the necessary foundation to move beyond that stage."

 

The stage beyond industrialism is converting the economy to FIRE, low paid service workers and virtual Facebook farmers, right? What is the necessary foundation for that? Change doesn't always mean progress.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 14:55 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Wish I was born earlier so I could of had money to buy gold at $250/oz...as well as some of those tech stocks.

Thanks to my parents, I'm 5 years behind everything, goddamnit.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 20:21 | Link to Comment are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

Sorry, but you paid for part of that before you were born.

Wed, 10/31/2012 - 15:55 | Link to Comment GOSPLAN HERO
Wed, 10/31/2012 - 23:33 | Link to Comment Joseph Jones
Joseph Jones's picture

My friend and I argue about the following: I say the sooner the USA falls into the abyss, the better off is mankind.  Friend says no, the replacement nation at the top will be worse.

What say members? 

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 06:14 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture

there is no replacement nation, it's the dark ages redux

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:12 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

Just spent two weeks away from zh due to my job and come back to see the very same predictions of imminent financial collapse, etc.  Except it doesn't implode.  I thought the US would be deep into a second leg down in 2nd QTR 2011.

Nope.

And now all the states that were hit by sandy are pretty much broke.  They were in parlous private and public financial positions even before this storm.

But what I know is Ben secretly printed $23 trill and gave it out in foreign loans in 2008, to prevent the great ka-splat.  And all the while everyone was distracted by some comparatively minor BS about TARP/TALF/HAMP, to the tune of a mere $1.27 trillion in 'stimulus' spending.

For sure the manipulation, in the background, is still going on, to make this dead-donkey carcass appear to keep jiggling each morning.

But in a couple of mere weeks the debt-ceiling shit-fest will finally start to hit-the-fan, at the same time that much larger Federal and State deficit spends are called for, in Sandy-affected states.

What a juxtaposition!  

My guess is a lot of stuff is simply not going to get fixed or replaced (per New Orleans).  But the only question is how much they are going to print and manipulate Lazarus the dead-donkey now, to keep up the pretence that it's alive?

But surely he stinketh!

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