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Overnight Sentiment: BTF Window Dressing And Ignore All News
If trying to explain why S&P futures are up another 9 points to 1417, and are now 25 ticks from the Monday night lows, there are so many catalysts: perhaps it was the European September unemployment rate rising to a new record of 11.6%, (Italy unemployment is now 10.8% up from 10.6% but it still has a way to go until it hits Spain's 25%) even as Consumer prices kept inflation at a steady 2.5% rate, or that French producer prices rose more than expected even as spending missed expectations, or that Spanish housing permits collapsed by 37.2% in August from July, or that Greek retail sales plunged by 7.2% Y/Y and the Greek 2013 economic outlook was cut in the latest budget with the budget deficit now seen at 5.2% from 4.2% before and that Greece now sees 189.1% debt/GDP in 2013 up from 175.6% in 2012, or that Japan just cut its economic outlook last night after its manufacturing PMI came at 46.9, the lowest since 2009 excluding Fukushima, or that UK consumer confidence printed -30, vs -28 last and the lowest since April, or that Taiwan slashed its 2012 GDP forecast from 1.66% to 1.05%, or that nothing has been resolved on the Greek labor reforms or the now two month overdue Troika bailout, or that insolvent Spain has still not requested a bailout, or that virtually every company that has reported revenues in the last two "dark days" missed expectations, or that US Mortgage applications tumbled 6% for its fourth straight weekly decline (government refi index down 5.5%, mortgage apps down 4.8%), or of course that Hurricane Sandy will cut both Q4 GDP and corporate profits (not to mention sales). Truly, there are so many reasons why the S&P has now soared since Apple announced the termination of its two key executives on Monday afternoon, one doesn't know where to start (and don't you dare say "window dressing"). Perhaps Kevin Henry would, but sadly his Bloomberg status is now "gray"...
What to look forward to? SocGen explains:
The Greek saga is likely to continue today, but have market participants decided to pay little attention until we get concrete information surrounding the disbursement of the EUR 31bn tranche Greece needs by the end of November? The EU's Juncker made it clear earlier this week that today's conference call between eurozone finance ministers will not bring certainty, and that nothing is to be expected before 12 November. This does not mean that Greece is unlikely to be a market mover until then: finance minister Stournaras announced yesterday that the new EUR 13.5bn austerity measures will be submitted to Parliament next week. As the Democratic Party, a coalition partner, opposes the proposed labour reforms, this may trigger some noise in the markets.
However, by the end of the week, let's hope that market sentiment will be driven more by fundamentals. We'll pay close attention to the US Chicago PMI today, as it is expected to edge back above the 50 threshold. Will it be enough to bring 10Y swap rates back to 1.80%? We're not so sure, as the correlation between US bond markets and US economic data has been quite poor of late, with risk sentiment and mixed US earnings results holding more sway.
Lastly, will the Norgesbank swing the bank into line with the G10's dovish central banks, as did the Riksbank's last week? We don't think so. Norway is much more immune to the slowdown in the eurozone than Sweden. The main hurdle for the central bank is the strength of the NOK, which hit a nine-year high versus the EUR in August, at 7.25. However, Norgesbank's governor Oslen has recently stated that he was inclined to accept more NOK gains as they may help to contain surging house prices. All in all, we see the Norgesbank meeting as NOK-positive today. Next supports in the short term stand at 7.4040, then 7.35, should EUR/USD resume its downtrend.
This too, however, is also irrelevant: just do whatever the Fed and other central banks do...
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Blah blah blah...
The FED is buying equities futures by proxy.
Captured, completely, in 8 words.
Lies.
Parabolic equity ramps only happen in Canada...during massive hurricanes...in October...
Isn't that right Kevin? Kevin?
Anyone....anyone?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxPVyieptwA
Not to mention all those pirates lined up on the planks, ready to jump.
Damn arbitragers!
Strange how your stuff is always the best, but the comments are always disabled.
<== read ZH daily and are stuck SHORT right now
<== read ZH daily and are happily LONG right now
Where is option 3: read ZH daily and are happily SHORT right now
Sooo start selling paper assets at 10:40.
I knew it was going to go up....just like the day they opened after 9/11...it has to go up to show the world that NYC still matters...it will be up....its the rest of the world I am worried about....I really want to know what the finance ministers are talking about in their emergecy meeting today in teh EU.....you could trade on that info...its funny they said there might not be a statement...wow..these guys love a microphone...no statement..that means it must really be bad...
Here's how it'll play out. There will be some shouting, accompanied with finger pointing for about 40 min. The hookers and caters will show up about 1 hour into the meeting. Ginormous Roman type of orgy with plenty of caviar and wine. Everyone informs their "friends" on the next step, then act in public as if nothing happened. Rinse, wash, and repeat.
Frankly I'm a little surprised the S&P isnt priced in Unicorns by now.
The kind that shit skittles.
Rainbow skittles.
A few of which Lord Blankfiend throws off his balcony along with red hot pennies to the starving peasant children some 10 floors below on the sodden filthy street.
Great sport, eh what, Jamie?
Don't complain. Buy puts at the open and THANK them for the gift. The market is about to take an eptc trip downward.
On Bizarro World, 'gnihtyreve' is backwards.
What a joke our world has become.
But you are't factoring the rebuilding investment boost due to Sandy. At least 3-4% boost to GDP!
As always, news bad, fundamentals bad, momentum good. I miss money on news, lose on fundamentals.
All this destruction in New York is GREAT news. More Keynesian spending, and who cares about debt levels anyway. We all know the last sucker/future tax payer hasn't yet been born.
I guess that's really what's magical about our current ponzinomics system. We shift liabilies to those who don't even understand what they are, thereby giving them no choice or say in the matter.
"to those who don't even understand". You do realize that is about 92% of the total US population. Yes?
I'm sorry. I'm far too busy posting about the awesomeness of Obama on reddit to comment on your post. </sarc>
We, the common 1% who live outside NYC must endure the travails of the 99%, the wealth accumulators, so as to participate in the trickle down, thanks to Dr. K and Ms Dowd and Little Tommy Freidman, illustrious Oracles and Confidants of Obey.
PS. Why have Beyoncee and JZ not been questioned about their Benghazi advice?
We, the common 1% who live outside NYC
Forcast is for blue skys in flyover country.......go ahead and make fun of us.
I agree. We need more Godzilla rampages and we need them now.
"Moar stronger atomic monster attacks are key to economic recovery" - P. Krugman
Liabilities only exist if there's an intent to make good on them. The US debt will never be repaid. Not a penny. Think of it as a tax on the rest of the world for protection.
Protection? From the US? That's as much protection as when the mafia gives you an offer you can't refuse.
Yes but think about the interest payments on those debts which if they don't get paid. We get another down grade, which usually causes rates to rise, compounding the monetary hyperinflation that already exists, and worsening the monetary deflation during a time of food price inflation. This is a bad scene for anyone not overly efficient in running their country.
Agree.
Lets follow Krugmans advice after Fukishima and blow the local reactor! GDP to the moon!!!!
Let me guess...over at the BlowHorn [CNBC], they are talking about how the up futures market is a triumph of the human spirit over the devastation of hurricane Sandy? Oh...and how a down futures market would have been evidence of the terrorist winning? And how "cash on the sidelines" is seeing the up futures market as a "buying opportunity" because "valuations are at historic lows" ...and similar such mind numbingly stupid tripe?
I wouldn't know. I gave up my subscription to the Comedy Channel.
...Then where do you get your hopium-fueled magic unicorn propaganda? It's part of a healthy breakfast.
Sky News usually does the trick in the morning.
I especially "love" the part when they get people in off the streets and discuss their take on it. Nothing like idiots' opinion on serious matters.
Indeed. Of course to be fair, "well informed" doesn't fit in 15 second sound bites bridging celebrity news and cooking segments.
Was it Eddie Bernays who said the American people are the best entertained and least informed by their news media?
"numbinbly stupid tripe" heh. Succint, but eloquent...
Who cares. What is important is which empty suit is leading in the polls. You should run your entire life around the polls. Take no decisions without first checking with Faux News. Do not buy or sell anything without CNNs approval. Carry on.
Wrong, that means less than nothing.
The FED runs the show and has for a long long time.
The only thing Romney would change is a less bearded Bernake crony to replace the real McCoy.
It'll be the same pile of shit either way.
Sorry. Forgot the sarc tag.
ES Mini futures could be short covering?
Apple is about to breach $600/share premarket.
Have faith that these boobs have no idea of what they are doing.
9/11 the market crashed 5% the first day because there were more than 3000 deads and no computer...where Sandy is about 100 deads with computers which does not care about compassion so market is up....I wonder if the BenB's dollars are underwater and could ask Lehman oupsss AIG to cover the losses ;-).
Just that??
My thesis is bullish on K+9 day.
Ahhhhhh....at last after spending the whole morning slack jawed in dumbstruck amazement that markets are pretty much all higher on ONLY BAD F*****G NEWS! I am now breathing a sigh of relief that once again, I'm not alone in my madness.
This is why I so enjoy reading ZeroHedge - I think we are actually the only voices of reason and sanity in this mad, mad world of distorted hopium-fuelled hysteria that we used to call "the markets".
Everyday now it just gets more bizarre as I sit trying to analyse fundamentals, money flows, technicals and try to understand what is driving prices higher in the face of bad news, bad news and bad news. This article sums it up exactly.
Thank you again Tyler and fellow ZH'ers. I appreciate my membership of this great club!
Longer term, won't the re-insurers have to liquidate assets to cover the rebuilding costs? What do they own that they'll have to sell?
Another bullish event, Sandy is still massive and the center of it is moving into New York for the first time:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-rb.html
ramp it pre market get the suckers to run in at the open, then the sell the bids hit- and GS pockets the winnings ..thats our wall st jig..wanna play today? the trap door is all greased up.
If you actually believe that, your trap door is all greased up alright. It isn't going down. You just had a 2 weeks of MSM and Wall street bashing followed by a hurricane. The market is up.
quin, stand very still right in the center of that trap door, don't look down..
Since markets last opened, SP500 was in a consolidation.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500hourly-shows-consolidation-drop/
Should see a drop once consolidation is complete.
Sorry but there will be no down tick until November 7th.
Haven't you learned, Tyler? News, data, and analysis are now irrelevant in the days of unlimited central bank interventions. We're too busy having a Pollyanna Party to bother with news! :)
But isn't that the very definition of a bubble? Yeah! I thought so!
And half of this news that is posted here most will never see in their local "tabloid.". It is beyond words at this point.
There must have been a 'Unicorn Crossing' sign erected on Wall St. overnight.
SP500 FORECAST.
Previous SPX & EURUSD buy support is now being dominated by sellers as daily charts break down further.
http://trader618.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis