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ADP "Jobs" Number Unsurprisingly Beats Post-Revision Expectation

Tyler Durden's picture





 

That by now absolutely nobody can possibly take any number out of the ADP seriously is beyond question. For those confused why, just read "ADP "Cancels" 365,000 Private Jobs Created In 2012." And yet the establishment, and its very serious PhD pretend this "advance look" into NFP is relevant for one simple reason: it provides an anchor for HFT algos to send risk ramping, even though everyone knows it is a purely goalseeked, statistical aberation. To that end, moments before it was announced we tweeted the following:

Sure enough, seconds ago, the ADP reported that after its October number was revised from 162K to 88K, the November print just came out at 158K, on expectations of a 131K print (and a very serious sell side range of 80K to 170K). Now all we need is the October 2013 revision of this data series, which will say the ADP was only kidding and the number was really half of what was reported.

We would spend more time on this gross joke of "economic data" but we won't, as SecTres hopeful is currently on CNBC discussing how the ADP's goalseek.xls spreadsheet was fudged to make it more "credible", and also because the ADP website just crashed to further validate how serious this economic datapoint truly is. "Automatic Data Processing" indeed...

Finally, here is how ADP "subtracted" 365,000 jobs from 2012, as we explained yesterday:

 


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Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:26 | Link to Comment brewing
brewing's picture

zandi's a fucking hack...

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:32 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Surprise, surprise, surprise! - Gomer Pyle

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:46 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

This sounds like a great excuse to sell boatloads of gold. All at once.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:48 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

You go first.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:09 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

I would, but I had this tragic accident.. I don't really want to talk about it.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:27 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

I wish I had taken up farming instead of financial markets.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:51 | Link to Comment Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

It's not too late. I'm trying to make that transition.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:28 | Link to Comment digitlman
digitlman's picture

Such bullshit.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:44 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

That's some serious, fucking hardcore lying right there.

We need more useful idiots (aka Keynesian economics students) to jump out in force, defending the indefensible, and they're probably all busy doing just that already on reddit.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:28 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Here's my surprised look again

 

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Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:28 | Link to Comment vinayjha
Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:29 | Link to Comment Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Hey Tyler, give us a look at your graph of how many jobs need to be created, monthly, between now and the end of Obama's term, to get us back to where we were.

 

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:46 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

X+1

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:19 | Link to Comment overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

tyler, know any out of work down on thier luck honest lawyers?? think of the PR for ZH if we did a class action law suit against the Hon J Corzine?? I would contribute to get that done..I am sure Drudge would report it.. think of it a blog that acted on what we blow hot keystrokes about..??

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:24 | Link to Comment Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Ha, you just don't have a big enough graph. ;)

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:30 | Link to Comment becky quick and...
becky quick and her beautiful mouth's picture

red, i should have been a farmer.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:33 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Zandi and LIESman both have obama jizz on their chins this morning

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:34 | Link to Comment Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

I saw the revised print come in at 88 as stated above. I just happened to be looking at B'Berg when it was released. Now it has been changed to 114.......WTF??? As the song goes: Does anybody really know what time it is, does anybody really care?

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:44 | Link to Comment kralizec
kralizec's picture

Nothing to see here, move along...

Doh!

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:34 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

FED: One of the objectives of Federal Reserve policymakers in ...

 

FED: One of the objectives of Federal Reserve policymakers in expanding bank reserves and extending the period of near-zero short-term interest rates in September was "to depreciate the dollar," Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker said Wednesday. But in its efforts to stimulate the economy by this and other means, the Fed is running the risk of eroding public and market confidence in its commitment to price stability, and this could lead to accelerating inflation, Lacker warned in an exclusive interview with MNI. See more on the MNI main wire.
Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:26 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

Perfect, they can now come out and openly admit that they are treasonous cocksuckers, no offence to cocksuckers intended.

Guy should be openly beheaded. 

pods

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:40 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

So then what is needed to be a success is to have something like information that you can sell to the Gov't for a lot of money. Something like a reputable company that is struggling because of the real economy might not make a bad takeover target.

Boy. The worse it gets. The worse it gets.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:43 | Link to Comment nantucket
nantucket's picture

WTF happens in ONE DAY that you revise from 88k to 114k....really?  WTF changes, how often? and by how much? 

Step right up, place your bets, make you're long term decisions based on data that will change by 50% or more in the blink of an eye and eff you up, step right up....what....nobody wants to take that deal???  why?

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:44 | Link to Comment Flaming Ferrari
Flaming Ferrari's picture

Get long. Market is going up. It's had the kitchen sink thrown at it and it is still trading over 1400. All this stuff is a side show.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:45 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

You can't fight this:

FED: One of the objectives of Federal Reserve policymakers in ...

 

FED: One of the objectives of Federal Reserve policymakers in expanding bank reserves and extending the period of near-zero short-term interest rates in September was "to depreciate the dollar," Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker said Wednesday. But in its efforts to stimulate the economy by this and other means, the Fed is running the risk of eroding public and market confidence in its commitment to price stability, and this could lead to accelerating inflation, Lacker warned in an exclusive interview with MNI. See more on the MNI main wire.

 

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:47 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Get long. Market is going up. 

 

Now we know how the Flaming Ferrari got his name.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:46 | Link to Comment nantucket
nantucket's picture

all the knuckle-pumpers will be playing the skin flute beacuse the number was better than expected,...all the while ignoring we need 250k new jobs created just to keep up with population growth.  never mind that though, that will be taken care of with plunging participation.  It's all positive for the market.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:49 | Link to Comment northerngirl
northerngirl's picture

When will the insane game playing stop?

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment CaptainObvious
CaptainObvious's picture

With either WWIII or Civil War II, you pick.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:50 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Some firm called Challenger, Gray & Christmas said planned job cuts jump 41% in October.

 

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2012/11/01/planned-layoffs-jump-up-in...

 

Just another day doing the clusterfuck.

 

Long clusterfuck everyone.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:58 | Link to Comment Flaming Ferrari
Flaming Ferrari's picture

Yeah that's right GetZeeGold. Burnt more than one Ferrari trying to fight this monetary madness. Lesson learned.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:04 | Link to Comment ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Ghost jobs and now that Halloween is over these part timers can be laid off: http://www.cnbc.com/id/49637586

Yes, I know the link is to CNBS

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:06 | Link to Comment larz
larz's picture

Like I said before I was a math major in college and I took a statistics class, the first day the prof said - you can make numbers say whatever you want - I dropped the class.  This is the crap we are going into bubble debt to learn wtfu sheeple

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment adsanalytics
adsanalytics's picture

Not a massive surprise in light of stronger JOLTS job openings numbers as well as a continuing drop in CB;s Jobs Hard to Get indicators (after the jump). This still, however, doesn't solve the problem of stagnant incomes which is now lower than spending - and unsustainably so.

http://www.adsanalytics.com/dashboard/docs/dashboard.php?treepage=tree_definition_main.php&chart=chart_labor_jhtg

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:23 | Link to Comment cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

Ha, Two consecutive headlines on Yahoo Finance.

"Private Sector added 158,000 jobs in Oct"

next headline

"Planned layoffs jump to 5 month high in Oct"

OTay- if you can't fix it baffle em with Bullshit.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:25 | Link to Comment icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

Now we know where these jobs are going - to foreigners.

 

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/oct/31/two-thirds-of-jobs-go-to...

 

Add this info together with the previous info on the 55+ age group getting most of the job gains, and you've got a situation where anyone born in the USA and under 55 of age has no place in today's economy.

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