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And The Best (and Worst) Performing Asset In October (And 2012 To Date) Is....

Tyler Durden's picture




 

If you bought the deep OTM, high theta option that is the Greek stock market on October 1, or wheat on January 1, 2012, you can now retire. For everyone else who still hasn't gotten the hang of this here "New Normal" Cramer market, better luck next time.

October best and worst:

And 2012-to-date best and worst:

And some thoughts from Deutsche:

With the exception of commodities and a few other markets, October was on balance a positive month for risk asset performance. European equities were mostly higher led by gains in peripheral markets. Indeed the best total return performance came from Greece which saw the Greek Athex index (+8.4%) outperform its peers by a considerable margin – despite the ongoing uncertainties around the sovereign’s bailout package. Greek equities have produced a YTD total return of over 20% which is not too dissimilar with returns seen in the DAX (+23.1%) and the Hang Seng (+21.6%). The ECB’s conditional backstop continued to support appetite for the peripheral complex with the IBEX and FTSE MIB also up +1.7% and +3.0% respectively in October even though Spanish equities are still the worst performing asset within our selection with a -6.0% YTD return. The peripheral strength was also notable in fixed income markets with Spanish and Italian bonds gaining +2.5% and +1.8% respectively over the month.

 

Away from Europe, it was interesting to see that the Fed’s QE3 announcement hasn’t been as effective in boosting US equities and commodities prices so far. Indeed both asset classes had a poor month in October with the S&P 500 (-1.8%) down for the first time since May. Silver (-6.6%), Copper (-6.4%), CRB (-4.4%), Wheat (-4.2%) and Gold (-2.9%) were also some of the worst performers in our sample in October.

 

Core government bonds had a moderately negative month in October. Gilts, USTs and Bunds lost -0.7%, -0.2% and -0.1%, respectively. In terms of credit markets it was another good performance for investors with further excess returns seen in October. Total returns for European IG and HY credit were up 1.0% and 1.7%. US IG and HY were up 1.0% and 0.9%. Credit is having a fantastic year so far with equity-like returns. EU Fin Sub, EU HY and US HY are up 26%, 20% and 13% respectively for the year. Although as we showed in the last weekly, given the strong performance of credit over the course of the year and the fact that spreads are notably tighter now than they were at the start of 2012, it is almost mathematically impossible we will rival these returns over the next 12 months.

"Mathematically impossible" never stopped a central bank-funded bubble before...

 

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Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:13 | 2937200 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I would have....but I'm not that quick.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:28 | 2937261 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

So paper out performed real assets last month.  Must have been a shortage of toilet paper.  Because that is all stocks, bonds, and fiat are good for, wipping your a$$...

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:31 | 2937267 Neethgie
Neethgie's picture

Or making cash with which to buy things as the chart clearly shows..

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 11:53 | 2937681 Half_A_Billion_...
Half_A_Billion_Hollow_Points's picture

bitcoin is up 100%+ 

litecoin is up 1000%+

 

sorry, it's all true, boys

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:42 | 2937277 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

Great, they go UP in Down-Dollars (devalued dollars)

The insiders and "friends of Bernanke" benefit while the rest of us are forced into perpetual slavery

fun game, isn't it?

http://occupymonopoly.blogspot.com/2012/10/gold-standard-version-in-this-version.html

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:54 | 2937314 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

(Sniff) (Sniff)?  Is it just me, or do I smell a TROLL?

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 10:38 | 2937439 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

Great, they go UP in Down-Dollars (devalued dollars)

Dow is 6,500 in 2007 dollars.  No real recovery at all.

Ah yes, the power of inflation to fool the sheep.

In 4 yrs we've seen lots of liquidity, but no real growth.

 

 

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 13:43 | 2938113 Karlus
Karlus's picture

Bin Laden dead, GM alive?

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:14 | 2940493 monkeyboy
monkeyboy's picture

When did Greece become an asset class?

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:14 | 2937203 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

"Mathematically impossible" never stopped a central bank-funded bubble before

Bernanke to Bartiromo in 2007:

Bartiromo: Is there any chance that housing prices fall?

Bernanke: "That's impossible and we've never seen a dip in housing in anytime in American history.  I foresee modest growth in 2008"

How the fuck does this guy have a job?

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:16 | 2937216 malikai
malikai's picture

He has a job precisely because he says what he says and does what he does.

The quiver thing is kinda creepy though..

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:17 | 2937217 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Rumor has it he gives great head.

Rumor of course.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:21 | 2937237 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Well, because a large amount of people give him full credit when something goes his way, and claims that "no-one could have done/foreseen it any differently" when it doesn't.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:34 | 2937271 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

fedophilia

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 13:01 | 2937934 Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

Oh my, that's sick. I love it, but that is definitely sick.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 13:24 | 2938025 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

my bad!

I take it back.

please excuse.

fedolingus

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:24 | 2937247 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

The real question is "can the real-estate market collapse AGAIN." and of course as we are literally witnessing on t.v. The answer is yes." I'm not going to spend a billion dollars on a piece of land that is now Ocean. The question therefore is "is the entirety of Lower Manhattan now worthless?" unless and until electricity is restored, transportation links back up and running and some type of "tidal surge wall" built I would argue "yes, it is worthless." this strikes me as market moving. I will be watching to see if the price of gasoline soars in that region...and whether or not you can even get fuel. (currently you cannot!)

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 11:21 | 2937577 Pants McPants
Pants McPants's picture

A Keynesian tard would respond that the destruction of housing is bullish, and for two reasons: first, in the short term, housing units have been removed from the market, thereby lifting the prices of the remaining units.  Second, in the medium to long term, reconstruction costs are bullish for the economy.

(I don't agree with either of the above, just pointing it out)

As for the second part of your post, I think fuel prices should be allowed to skyrocket.  Skyrocketing prices signal need, and those "greedy capitalist pigs" will take full advantage of the opportunity.  Soon enough the market will be flooded with supply.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:42 | 2937290 SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture

Shizzmoney,

 

As you truly must already know, he is bought and paid for.

I believe you will view, two individual twins, competing for a lesser position next week; BOUGHT and PAID for... by the same. 

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:47 | 2937299 youngman
youngman's picture

Anyone and I mean ANYONE who buys on a beach and does not think Mother Nature will affect them..well is very very stupid....from the daily salt spray...to a hurricane or tidal wave....its just a matter of time....from the Keys to Maine.....its happened before..it will happen again with or without Al Gore...

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 10:41 | 2937450 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

How the fuck does this guy have a job?

He can say any damn thing he wants so long as he keeps shovelling money to Wall Street banks (his real job).

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:14 | 2937204 Cursive
Cursive's picture

How does one make money in the global market casino these days?  Do exactly the opposite of common sense.  It works until it doesn't.  Then you're SOL.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:19 | 2937230 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Take what you would do and then bet on 80% of the opposite decision.

This is only a short-term play until the jig is up and then you still lose everything...

Aaaaaaannnnnd it's gone.

http://youtu.be/jrLbY4-Q99A

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:27 | 2937257 malikai
malikai's picture

Unless you're disciplined and roll your profits into tangibles.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 10:19 | 2937383 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

smoke 'em if you got 'em

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:22 | 2937240 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Pennies, steamroller.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:27 | 2937258 odatruf
odatruf's picture

Pretty easy these days, really.

  1. Hire a well connected lobbyist
  2. Gain tradeable inside information or secure grant / contract/ other rent seeking position
  3. Recognize gains of giant multiples of lobbyist spending
  4. Repeat

Or open a bank and borrow from the Fed at 0% and then lend to others at > 0% with the government guaranteeing said debt.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:31 | 2937268 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Or just outright steal it ala John Corzine...

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 11:50 | 2937667 odatruf
odatruf's picture

Well sure, if you have no sense of adventure.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:14 | 2937206 malikai
malikai's picture

Copper and Silver.. Quite a pounding this past month..

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:41 | 2937279 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

malikai

This is why they took quite a pounding.

http://www.lolset.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/the-worlds-sexiest-hall...

( Really? Someone kneejerk downvoted without even clicking the link? What an asshole)

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:46 | 2937295 malikai
malikai's picture

+1

I always knew I had a thing for gold. Now I understand why. Those pants are kinda tight..

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 11:41 | 2937644 donsluck
donsluck's picture

The black bra really spoils the woman on the right. What a coward.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 19:18 | 2939288 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Well-stacked! :>D

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:14 | 2937208 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Ah yes, the Cramer market- where we pump the lastest piece of shit up on CNBC so our buddies can get out at the top....

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:15 | 2937209 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

"Wheaties" Breakfast of Champions

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:15 | 2937210 PUD
PUD's picture

Long deep otm Spanish dumpsters was the hands down winner.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:15 | 2937212 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Central Banks cause the mis-allocation of funds.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:16 | 2937215 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

What the Lord giveth in October he can crasheth in November.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:29 | 2937263 odatruf
odatruf's picture

Completely understandable, of course, but you mean what the Bernakee giveth...

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:47 | 2937298 strannick
strannick's picture

Gold market crashes in October, and flutters skyward on guilded wings in November, not withstanding COMEX induced crashes 10 minutes after every open. Oops, they did it again.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:59 | 2937335 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I have formed my end game theory and it revolves around renationalization of gold reserves...that arent there.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:20 | 2937235 Jason T
Jason T's picture

meanwhile, the northeast is running out of gasoline.. can't store that ethonal shit.  no gas, no generator.. 

 

 

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:28 | 2937262 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Fuck new york, new jersey, and fuck you bernanke or any other stupid fuck that builds a house in a flood plain and expects me to pay for the cost to rebuild.  Dumb ass motherfuckers.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 11:43 | 2937651 donsluck
donsluck's picture

Or where there's tornadoes? Or where there's earthquakes? Or where there's fires? Or where there's...

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 12:16 | 2937753 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes.  Nature makes no promises regarding anyone's survival, period.  You are a moron to think or hedge otherwise.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:34 | 2937272 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

You're right of course but technical point, most generators run on diesel...

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:59 | 2937334 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

another technical point, if you've $2 trillion in real estate on a flood plane makes sense to build a wall

over to you Mayor Bloomberg and your "the enviroment can be dangerous" statement ...only if you leave New York defenceless

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:24 | 2937248 fuu
fuu's picture

Silver bitchez!

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:25 | 2937253 eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

Off the topic. I heard some interesting news from China this morning: In order to celebrate the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission (the Chinese equivalent of the SEC) has ordered that no securities firm in China is allowed to sell stock on the A-share market until the end of the National Congress. All Chinese securities firms must their best to ramp up the stock indices.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:30 | 2937254 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Silver is money.  It has been since, well, the existence of money; since we came to define trade using a "money".

Silver defines money because money must be a store of wealth.  Thus due to their infinite nature precious metals are the only forms of money, and platinum, gold, and silver above the rest.

Paper rots, burns, and rips.  Paper is a form of currency.

Silver is money - Buy Silver.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 17:08 | 2938907 dwayne elizando
dwayne elizando's picture

"Silver is money - Buy Silver."

Consider it done boss!

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 17:09 | 2938908 dwayne elizando
dwayne elizando's picture

"Silver is money - Buy Silver."

Consider it done boss!

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:32 | 2937259 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

Kills me. Worst drought in the last 50 years and corn is down. No wonder I don't play the market. What a rigged joke. Good luck out there suckers!

Edit: I read that wrong. Another reason I don't play the markets.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:33 | 2937270 youngman
youngman's picture

you look at those graphs..but what % of those purchases are the Government or Central Banks......are you really looking at data from a "market"....if you could take out the Government and Central bank purchases...Taxpayers vs Non taxpayers.....I think this graph would be totally different....

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:35 | 2937275 Neethgie
Neethgie's picture

This is only from the long side, short fb would have made a killing.. not to mention aapl ytd is like 47%

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:36 | 2937278 GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

LOL at silver and gold. 

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:44 | 2937294 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Did I miss somit?

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:38 | 2937281 strannick
strannick's picture

Translates to ''be happy with low yielding bonds, we will be loading on gold and commodities''.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:42 | 2937291 Howdan
Howdan's picture

F**k you Bernanke!

YOU GOT IT WRONG!! AGAIN, AGAIN AND AGAIN.

This sums it up :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sM_RnA2GIwE

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 10:33 | 2937425 permafrost
permafrost's picture

So losing the largest company (Coca-Cola 3E) in your index is the best way to raise the value of the index. Way to go Greece Athex. DJIA and SP are you listening? Force all of your most successful companies out and just hold onto the duds and we'll be seeing Dow 24,000 in no time.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 11:43 | 2937648 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Silver gets kicked in the nuts yet again... yay!

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 11:50 | 2937669 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

Those aren't real gains, the top performers (banks) are cheating, for god-sake the Fed is printing money just to buy their crap assets.

If i had a warehouse full of crap no one wanted, and the govt / fed came in and bought all of it every month even though its crap , I would be performing well too!

 

Government picking losers to win.

 

Things will correct, and they will correct hard.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 13:18 | 2938002 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

3 real things on the list, the rest is fantasy paper.  Tells me a lot.

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