And The Best (and Worst) Performing Asset In October (And 2012 To Date) Is....

Tyler Durden's picture

If you bought the deep OTM, high theta option that is the Greek stock market on October 1, or wheat on January 1, 2012, you can now retire. For everyone else who still hasn't gotten the hang of this here "New Normal" Cramer market, better luck next time.

October best and worst:

And 2012-to-date best and worst:

And some thoughts from Deutsche:

With the exception of commodities and a few other markets, October was on balance a positive month for risk asset performance. European equities were mostly higher led by gains in peripheral markets. Indeed the best total return performance came from Greece which saw the Greek Athex index (+8.4%) outperform its peers by a considerable margin – despite the ongoing uncertainties around the sovereign’s bailout package. Greek equities have produced a YTD total return of over 20% which is not too dissimilar with returns seen in the DAX (+23.1%) and the Hang Seng (+21.6%). The ECB’s conditional backstop continued to support appetite for the peripheral complex with the IBEX and FTSE MIB also up +1.7% and +3.0% respectively in October even though Spanish equities are still the worst performing asset within our selection with a -6.0% YTD return. The peripheral strength was also notable in fixed income markets with Spanish and Italian bonds gaining +2.5% and +1.8% respectively over the month.

 

Away from Europe, it was interesting to see that the Fed’s QE3 announcement hasn’t been as effective in boosting US equities and commodities prices so far. Indeed both asset classes had a poor month in October with the S&P 500 (-1.8%) down for the first time since May. Silver (-6.6%), Copper (-6.4%), CRB (-4.4%), Wheat (-4.2%) and Gold (-2.9%) were also some of the worst performers in our sample in October.

 

Core government bonds had a moderately negative month in October. Gilts, USTs and Bunds lost -0.7%, -0.2% and -0.1%, respectively. In terms of credit markets it was another good performance for investors with further excess returns seen in October. Total returns for European IG and HY credit were up 1.0% and 1.7%. US IG and HY were up 1.0% and 0.9%. Credit is having a fantastic year so far with equity-like returns. EU Fin Sub, EU HY and US HY are up 26%, 20% and 13% respectively for the year. Although as we showed in the last weekly, given the strong performance of credit over the course of the year and the fact that spreads are notably tighter now than they were at the start of 2012, it is almost mathematically impossible we will rival these returns over the next 12 months.

"Mathematically impossible" never stopped a central bank-funded bubble before...

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GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I would have....but I'm not that quick.

SmallerGovNow2's picture

So paper out performed real assets last month.  Must have been a shortage of toilet paper.  Because that is all stocks, bonds, and fiat are good for, wipping your a$$...

Neethgie's picture

Or making cash with which to buy things as the chart clearly shows..

Half_A_Billion_Hollow_Points's picture

bitcoin is up 100%+ 

litecoin is up 1000%+

 

sorry, it's all true, boys

EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

Great, they go UP in Down-Dollars (devalued dollars)

The insiders and "friends of Bernanke" benefit while the rest of us are forced into perpetual slavery

fun game, isn't it?

http://occupymonopoly.blogspot.com/2012/10/gold-standard-version-in-this-version.html

ZeroAvatar's picture

(Sniff) (Sniff)?  Is it just me, or do I smell a TROLL?

cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

Great, they go UP in Down-Dollars (devalued dollars)

Dow is 6,500 in 2007 dollars.  No real recovery at all.

Ah yes, the power of inflation to fool the sheep.

In 4 yrs we've seen lots of liquidity, but no real growth.

 

 

monkeyboy's picture

When did Greece become an asset class?

Shizzmoney's picture

"Mathematically impossible" never stopped a central bank-funded bubble before

Bernanke to Bartiromo in 2007:

Bartiromo: Is there any chance that housing prices fall?

Bernanke: "That's impossible and we've never seen a dip in housing in anytime in American history.  I foresee modest growth in 2008"

How the fuck does this guy have a job?

malikai's picture

He has a job precisely because he says what he says and does what he does.

The quiver thing is kinda creepy though..

JPM Hater001's picture

Rumor has it he gives great head.

Rumor of course.

EscapeKey's picture

Well, because a large amount of people give him full credit when something goes his way, and claims that "no-one could have done/foreseen it any differently" when it doesn't.

Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

Oh my, that's sick. I love it, but that is definitely sick.

SafelyGraze's picture

my bad!

I take it back.

please excuse.

fedolingus

disabledvet's picture

The real question is "can the real-estate market collapse AGAIN." and of course as we are literally witnessing on t.v. The answer is yes." I'm not going to spend a billion dollars on a piece of land that is now Ocean. The question therefore is "is the entirety of Lower Manhattan now worthless?" unless and until electricity is restored, transportation links back up and running and some type of "tidal surge wall" built I would argue "yes, it is worthless." this strikes me as market moving. I will be watching to see if the price of gasoline soars in that region...and whether or not you can even get fuel. (currently you cannot!)

Pants McPants's picture

A Keynesian tard would respond that the destruction of housing is bullish, and for two reasons: first, in the short term, housing units have been removed from the market, thereby lifting the prices of the remaining units.  Second, in the medium to long term, reconstruction costs are bullish for the economy.

(I don't agree with either of the above, just pointing it out)

As for the second part of your post, I think fuel prices should be allowed to skyrocket.  Skyrocketing prices signal need, and those "greedy capitalist pigs" will take full advantage of the opportunity.  Soon enough the market will be flooded with supply.

SilverDOG's picture

Shizzmoney,

 

As you truly must already know, he is bought and paid for.

I believe you will view, two individual twins, competing for a lesser position next week; BOUGHT and PAID for... by the same. 

youngman's picture

Anyone and I mean ANYONE who buys on a beach and does not think Mother Nature will affect them..well is very very stupid....from the daily salt spray...to a hurricane or tidal wave....its just a matter of time....from the Keys to Maine.....its happened before..it will happen again with or without Al Gore...

cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

How the fuck does this guy have a job?

He can say any damn thing he wants so long as he keeps shovelling money to Wall Street banks (his real job).

Cursive's picture

How does one make money in the global market casino these days?  Do exactly the opposite of common sense.  It works until it doesn't.  Then you're SOL.

JPM Hater001's picture

Take what you would do and then bet on 80% of the opposite decision.

This is only a short-term play until the jig is up and then you still lose everything...

Aaaaaaannnnnd it's gone.

http://youtu.be/jrLbY4-Q99A

malikai's picture

Unless you're disciplined and roll your profits into tangibles.

odatruf's picture

Pretty easy these days, really.

  1. Hire a well connected lobbyist
  2. Gain tradeable inside information or secure grant / contract/ other rent seeking position
  3. Recognize gains of giant multiples of lobbyist spending
  4. Repeat

Or open a bank and borrow from the Fed at 0% and then lend to others at > 0% with the government guaranteeing said debt.

malikai's picture

Copper and Silver.. Quite a pounding this past month..

Gully Foyle's picture

malikai

This is why they took quite a pounding.

http://www.lolset.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/the-worlds-sexiest-hall...

( Really? Someone kneejerk downvoted without even clicking the link? What an asshole)

malikai's picture

+1

I always knew I had a thing for gold. Now I understand why. Those pants are kinda tight..

donsluck's picture

The black bra really spoils the woman on the right. What a coward.

jcaz's picture

Ah yes, the Cramer market- where we pump the lastest piece of shit up on CNBC so our buddies can get out at the top....

cowdiddly's picture

"Wheaties" Breakfast of Champions

PUD's picture

Long deep otm Spanish dumpsters was the hands down winner.

q99x2's picture

Central Banks cause the mis-allocation of funds.

JPM Hater001's picture

What the Lord giveth in October he can crasheth in November.

odatruf's picture

Completely understandable, of course, but you mean what the Bernakee giveth...

strannick's picture

Gold market crashes in October, and flutters skyward on guilded wings in November, not withstanding COMEX induced crashes 10 minutes after every open. Oops, they did it again.

JPM Hater001's picture

I have formed my end game theory and it revolves around renationalization of gold reserves...that arent there.

Jason T's picture

meanwhile, the northeast is running out of gasoline.. can't store that ethonal shit.  no gas, no generator.. 

 

 

LawsofPhysics's picture

Fuck new york, new jersey, and fuck you bernanke or any other stupid fuck that builds a house in a flood plain and expects me to pay for the cost to rebuild.  Dumb ass motherfuckers.

donsluck's picture

Or where there's tornadoes? Or where there's earthquakes? Or where there's fires? Or where there's...

LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes.  Nature makes no promises regarding anyone's survival, period.  You are a moron to think or hedge otherwise.

SmallerGovNow2's picture

You're right of course but technical point, most generators run on diesel...

Zero Govt's picture

another technical point, if you've $2 trillion in real estate on a flood plane makes sense to build a wall

over to you Mayor Bloomberg and your "the enviroment can be dangerous" statement ...only if you leave New York defenceless

fuu's picture

Silver bitchez!