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Initial Claims Beat Expectations, Last Week's Beat Revised To Miss

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Last week, when we reported last week's lucky Initial Claims expectations beat of 369K, we explicitly said the following: "today's Initial Claims number which magically "beat" expectations by 1K, printing at 369K, on expectations of 370K, will be revised to a miss of 372K next week." And guess what last week's number was just revised to? That's right: 372K, which means that last week's beat was actually a miss. But who cares. Oh, and this week's just as manipulated print of 363K, which was a beat of expectations of 370K, will be spun as a 9K drop in initial claims of course. Next week this number will be revised to 365K-366K as usual, because the BLS has now upward revised its weekly claims number for something like 80 weeks in a row.

And for those curious why last week's number plunged to a pre-revision 369K from the ~390K print week before that, it was again, California's fault, which saw 16,586 fewer claims in the week ending October 20 due to "fewer layoffs in the service industry." To be expected: after all the administration has succeeded in reflating the subprime bubble, and every true-blooded Californian is once again a mortgage banker with a hungry Lamborghini to feed.

Finally, after dropping relentless every week, those Americans on extended claims/EUCs have somehow once again started rising, increasing by 47K in the week ending October 13. Perfect pre-election timing.

 

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Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:43 | 2937120 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

market says "NO" LOL

im watching NZD and NOK as my guides here. NOK says DXY should be at 77.5. this will happen shortly.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:07 | 2937146 ilion
ilion's picture

Why do you watch NZD or NOK? I only trade EURUSD, as its rate is more predictable http://www.armadamarkets.com/fx-trading/ . I really wonder is there anybody left who actually believes these job reports?

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:10 | 2937193 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Krugman

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:30 | 2937266 ilion
ilion's picture

You didn't build this, Krugman did! 

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:38 | 2937283 old naughty
old naughty's picture

Let's see...

Beat, Beat-Revised, Revised-Beat, Beat...Got it.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 10:11 | 2937359 Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

And, as I suggested yesterday, not to be outdone by the bls, here comes consumer confidence, which had it been unch. or down from sept. would have been quietly released on Tuesday as scheduled in the eye of Sandy's storm. But the conference board couldn't let this "surprise" go to waste as its probably worth +50 dow points, so it was delayed until the markets were up and running.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:15 | 2937213 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

You have to go back to 1978 and the "sudden disappearance of millions of employed." the numbers will be used to "create a rate." stop trying to equate the numbers with equities which is the mistake everyone makes. Who cares about the phucking report? The answer is outside of government agencies which need taxpayers to survive "certainly not capitalism." the only deal is the New York City subway system. The total failure of that system is a market moving event. New York City and "the Greater Metro Area" cannot survive in it's current form if that system is not up and running in the next few weeks. If this system is permanently disabled then expect a wave of defaults as "I can't get to lower Manhattan and therefore the real is now worthless...especially the parts that are still underwater'and may be for the next six months."

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:38 | 2937284 Element
Element's picture

They pumped New Orleans dry in a couple of months ... twice.  The real problem I see is the tens of thousands of km of electrical cables, rails and switch-gear infiltrated with salt water that will oxidise real fast once that water is pumped out.  All that gear will have to be systematically replaced. And the escalators and turn-styles will also be knackered.

Plus how many skyscrapers and apartments had their basements and electrical distribution systems flooded?  Sewerage is going to remain a serious problem, as will potable water.  My guess is that from tomorrow on things are doing to start getting much more urgent and desperate in the severely affected areas, ... and politically damaging as hard questions need to be asked and platitudes are not going to quell them.

(Lots of copper and other commodities will be needed for all that, plus all the old stuff will have to be recycled ... $$$).

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 13:43 | 2938114 lunaticfringe
Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:44 | 2937127 IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

Yes

 

The Government Cheats!!!!

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:45 | 2937130 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Noooooooooooo.................who wulda guessed?

When you're talking the collapse of the entire system anything goes. Lie, make up rules etc.

I don't think they're trying to save this system but buy time until they have the next fraudster scheme ready to implement and fuck everyone over for the next 200-300 years until it flys apart also.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:46 | 2937133 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

You can fool most of the people most of the time. Isn't that how the saying goes?

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:50 | 2937143 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

"Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me, can't get fooled again."

-I think it was either George W. Bush or Pete Townsend who said that, I forget which one.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:58 | 2937160 ilion
ilion's picture

Fuck Bernanke and his bitches.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:47 | 2937137 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Ok isn't there a country that normal people can have a stock exchange for the real world. I understand that reality exists somewhere between the past and the future and that that place is becoming infinitismally smaller by the day but still I would like to have somewhere to invest please.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:50 | 2937144 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

Iceland, maybe?

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:52 | 2937152 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

The game of fraud continues.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:53 | 2937156 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, Hit, Revise to Miss, . . .

Gaaahhhh!!!!

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:59 | 2937165 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Even Mongo is starting to sense a pattern.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:01 | 2937169 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

Mongo just pawn in game of life.

RIP Alex Karras.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:29 | 2937264 Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

All revisions to "miss" and no "exceeds" makes BLS a dull boy.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:59 | 2937159 larz
larz's picture

they dont disappoint at least it is consistent - thats all i ask

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:58 | 2937162 longshortflat
longshortflat's picture

Like you said FROM MARKETWATCH
"

Nov. 1, 2012, 8:46 a.m. EDT

U.S. requests for jobless benefits decline Initial claims drop 9,000 to 363,000, but jobs market still sluggish"
Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:58 | 2937163 curiosul
curiosul's picture

Would be interesting to add all the "revisions" from the beginning of the year.

Should be a fairly big number ...

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 08:58 | 2937164 NeedleDickTheBu...
NeedleDickTheBugFucker's picture

"...because the BLS has now upward revised its weekly claims number for something like 80 weeks in a row".

 

Actually, it's 88 weeks in a row, but who's counting.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:02 | 2937171 Mister Ponzi
Mister Ponzi's picture

Actually, it is 70 weeks in a row. On June 30, 2011, they left the number unchanged. 88 weeks ago they had the last downward revision.

With respect to the Continuing Claims, we now have 118 weeks with upward revisions in a row.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 10:21 | 2937390 Plausible Denia...
Plausible Deniability's picture

I wonder if its any coincidence that the beginning of Republican primaries corresponds pretty closely to the beginning of this impressive 88 week run. Coincidence? You start stacking up all of these "coincidences" and the probability that this ISN"T one giant sham would be something like winning the Lotto WHILE getting struck by lightning. God help us all

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:02 | 2937170 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Oh, the irony, the irony, the irony...

"Brownie" says Obama moved too fast on Sandy....

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/264845-bushs-brownie-criticizes-obama-on-sandy

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:43 | 2937292 pods
pods's picture

If anyone knows the proper amount of time to wait to respond it would be "heckuva job" Brownie.

For he waited that long, and then just a bit longer.

(of course when the FEDs did come in their number one job was to take control from the locals, but that is a digression.)

pods

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:03 | 2937173 PUD
PUD's picture

Oct. U.S. Markit factory index hits 37-month low

MUST NOT BE A GOV #

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:04 | 2937174 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Just ridiculous a little 1K 'beat' time after time just so they can say so. 

Well anyway, the 'Cuz its election year' excuse will soon be gone.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:07 | 2937182 silverscouseparis
silverscouseparis's picture

just saw a couple of corporate yes men on cnbc...optimistic everythings fine....things are getting better..SERIOUSly???

a hurricane has just blown a great big hole in the shakey infrastructure..a financial chasm beckons..hft algos keep moving the

markets up to a preelection high..and yet HOLD ON..what about europe?we think we have problems...anything not to deal with reality

in the uSA.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:19 | 2937231 youngman
youngman's picture

I thought yesterday we would of had a little bit different day in the markets...as many of the players could not work...volume was normal...not very high for the last day of the month..and for missing two days....but I thought there would be wild rides up and down...as some algos worked while others had no power.....

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:07 | 2937183 northerngirl
northerngirl's picture

Is it just me or has BLS weekly reporting become a, "Divine Comedy?"  How long have we been reading about the six figure weekly. "Initial Claims?"  We have to be getting close to the final circle of Hell.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:08 | 2937189 adsanalytics
adsanalytics's picture

Not a massive surprise in light of stronger JOLTS job openings numbers as well as a continuing drop in CB;s Jobs Hard to Get indicators (after the jump). This still, however, doesn't solve the problem of stagnant incomes which is now lower than spending - and unsustainably so.

http://www.adsanalytics.com/dashboard/docs/dashboard.php?treepage=tree_definition_main.php&chart=chart_labor_jhtg

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:09 | 2937190 WhOracle
WhOracle's picture

And the modern day pied piper of hamelin that is propagandist mass media keeps on playing its entrancing tune... Weapons of Mass Distraction

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:10 | 2937191 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

is there a real number well maybe the body count in Nam was fudged, but our KIA's in the sand boxes of the world are real dead citizens and our wounded TBI citizens are real numbers..of course the MSM does not report on these as the current gov is owned by D. and the nobel peace president who's name is barry or  hussain obuma or dunham or soerto, well I guess it does not matter what we call him...as long as it begins with the honorable..

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:32 | 2937269 Abiotic Oil
Abiotic Oil's picture

I'm going with "Barry Davis" at this point.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:22 | 2937242 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

"the BLS has now upward revised its weekly claims number for something like 80 weeks in a row."

Tyler, the memory challenged of the world thank you.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:26 | 2937251 Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

Since Congress loves to pass frivolous laws without end, why not require asterisks attached to the BLS statistics, just like all the warnings that are festooned all over ladders and other equipment, like "warning, you could lose your balance"?

 

Asterisk*  Bullshit Labor Statistics are revised down ward over 95 percent of the time and thus are to be used for political propoganda (re-election) purposes only.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:26 | 2937256 adsanalytics
adsanalytics's picture

Not a massive surprise in light of stronger JOLTS job openings numbers as well as a continuing drop in CB;s Jobs Hard to Get indicators (after the jump). This still, however, doesn't solve the problem of stagnant incomes which is now lower than spending - and unsustainably so.

http://www.adsanalytics.com/dashboard/docs/dashboard.php?treepage=tree_definition_main.php&chart=chart_labor_jhtg

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 09:46 | 2937297 Lewshine
Lewshine's picture

...And in other news, Fed algos trading programs resume their assault on precious metals while once again pushing equities higher, in spite of the fact that Sandy has been blamed for anything that misses estimates. DIE!!!

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 10:27 | 2937408 jplotinus
jplotinus's picture

Hey Tyler,

I appreciate the value of ZH pointing to the nearly inevitable rise in the previous week's reported ue claim number as an indicator of BLS manipulation.

There's another number frequently, though not always, mentioned in connection with ue claims. Here's an example of what I'm referring to taken from tody's NYT:

"Economists generally think a reading below 400,000 points to an increase in employment."

Source:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/business/economy/claims-for-us-jobless...

I swear that number of "400,000" has magically morphed higher from and after the onset of the '08 financial crisis and greater depression. Up until then, if my memory and not the memory hole, serves me correctly, it used to require a ue claim number of under300,000 to signal job growth. Over the course of the greater depression, that number has been gradually increased in increments of 25,000.

There was a time when it was (000s) 325; then 350; then 375, then "under 400"; and now, 400.

If anything, this sort of subtle shift in redefinition is even more manipulative than the more obvious, and therefore more detectable, revision upwards of the prior week's print.

The gradual shift serves to strengthen the "memory hole" phenomenon of establishing illusion in the place of reality; and of overtly hastening the primacy of the unreal over the real.

Be aware

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 10:59 | 2937517 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

What are the chances that David Axelrod is overseeing the floor at the BLS, negotiating a Barry-boosting 7.6 for tomorrow?

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 14:46 | 2938349 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

This must be why the markets are "irrationally exuberant" toady, like a young man who has drank too much whiskey.

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