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ISM, Consumer Confidence And Construction Spending Data Trifecta: Two Misses, One Beat
And so the amusing data continues. After yesterday's Chicago PMI missed (and was released early), it was only a matter of time before it would be offset by a better than expected ISM. This was also expected following the PMI number which came out earlier today, and which also missed. Which is precisely why we, as usual, had a slightly cynuical take on the data, and were fully expecting a beat from the Manufacturing ISM as we reported previously. To wit:
What time will the Mfg ISM beat by 2-3 std devs?
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 1, 2012
A second PMI, not that first PMI, reports a weak number that will be refuted by the ISM
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 1, 2012
The time is 10:00 am, and the beat, while not as massive, came just as expected, and was sufficent to send the Headline scanning algos into a buying frenzy, after the ISM came at 51.7, well above expectations of 51.0 and above last month's 51.5. This was the highest Manufacturing ISM since May 2012, following yesterday's just as important number looking into the health of the manufacturing sector, whose employment index came at a 33 month low. Nothing like keeping the algos absolutely stupefied by constantly conflicting, if upward biased data. And definitely ignore the Employment Index in the Manufacturing ISM which declined from 54.7 to 52.1.
The other data was not quite as exciting, with Consumer Confidence rising from a downward revised 68.4 (was 70.3) to 72.2, and missing expectations of a 73.0 print although still coming at the highest print since February 2008 just in time for presidential boasting, while Construction Spending also missed expectations, rising from a revised -0.1% to 0.6%, even as consensus was hoping for a 0.7% print.
So 2 out of 3 misses, but for the algos only the beats matter, which is why futures have ramped a solid 10 points since the market open on virtually nothing substanial, but merely more gaming of kneejerk reactions to flashing red headlines.
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Market about to cure cancer
If you are going to assume TOTAL MARKET MANIPULATION (for the populace), then you will have to assume ES 1500 by election day. The latter is a consequence of the former.
Up 150 points...Go Kevin Go!!
Make love to me Kevin! I bet Kevin can manipulate balls with the same finess he uses to manipulate markets
That's Captain Ramptastic to you, buddy boy!
You're right - I meant no disrespect to the good Captain. To the moon!
duplicate post for some reason....
and another...
Food stamp/obamacare waiver jobs
One interesting metric in this report is that the claim is made that large businesses added a majority of the new jobs. This was surrprising, but what's not is that nearly all of them were service-sector.
McDonalds' anyone?
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=213393
LOL- so construction spending up only 0.6%? Gee, what happened to this bonanza in new home and commercial building?
Always funny to see when the Party BS doesn't even line up with their own numbers....
Thank goodness a bunch of buildings just got destroyed so construction spending can go up again.
Too good to be true isn't it?
The first ADP release to include the new formula will be the October jobs report to be issued Nov. 1. The government’s official report will come out one day later. http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-10-24/economy/34695253_1_adp-report-macroeconomic-advisers-jobs-report
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-31/adp-cancels-365000-private-jobs-created-2012
I'm so sick of this crap...I'm going to head out and do my"civic duty" and cast my ballot for Ron Paul.
i went right past a voting booth yest--- the guy was like are you here to vote--- i dont think my vote matters its rigged anyway. The banks will install Romney is my prediction but romney will not uninstall Obamacare. But if you're going to vote go ahead & vote for whoever u want even if you have to write him in yourself, liek it matters anyway just go ahead & engage yourself in the illusion purely for fun like fantasy football
I never thought for a moment that it mattered. They have their boy in the white house and he will remain there. I choose to write in Ron Paul's name so they know that there are a lot of us who call bullshit on the two party system and the illusion of choice they offer.
I pretty much agree w/ that. I even up arrowed you once for it. I almost up arrowed myself if not against my general principle- Why heck is everybody down-arrowing me for saying obvious question- man screw u guys i'm going home
In TX Ron Paul is not an eligible write-in candidate. Here's the list of eligible write-in candidates.
http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/forms/cert-write-ins-2012.pdf
Voting for Ron Paul, even if I wanted to, is a waste of time.
So yeah. In the bad times, S&P didn't even go under 1400. Now that lots of cool statistics are coming out, it's pure profit baby. Small caps doing even better today. No crash today. Sorrrrry.
Don't be sorry...if 1400 is threatened again they will simply find a reason to close the market in order to find buyers.
PS. THE SAME THING WILL HAPPEN WHEN THEY DECIDE TO LET IT ALL FALL APART & NO ONE WILL BE ALLOWED OUT.
Until the bottom of course...Happy Halloween MF Global.
They should come out by me. The consumer confidence is through the roof, which is good because in most places there is no roof.
Lol... that's pretty funny. Thanks for the laugh,I'm pretty irritated with all the bullshit today.
Better trade in the cattle market thanks to Sandy's power outages and associated meat spoilage.
See the nombers and expectations here.
http://bit.ly/X35H00
Kaminsky is getting his head kicked in. We can't all be winners, Kaminsky. Not even the ones who go on TV and yell "fire".
5.4% here we come!
i am sure no one here is surprised at these numbers
wow, if we had beat on all three we would be up 45 points on /es
pure horseshit.
i cant even find a lick of humor anymore. fuck it and fuck all involved with this fucking muppet circus.
Sucker rally. Wait for this thing to fizzle out.. Calm down bitchez.
I think you're all fucked in the head! We're ten hours from the fucking fun park and you want to bail out. Well I'll tell you something, this is no longer a vacation, it's a quest. It's a quest for fun, I'm gonna have fun and you're gonna have fun, we're all gonna have so much fucking fun we'll need plastic surgery to remove our goddamn smiles! You'll be whistling Zip-A-Dee-Doo-Dah out of your assholes! I gotta be crazy; I'm on a pilgrimage to see a moose! Praise Marty Moose! Oh, shit! [Rusty: Dad you want an aspirin or something? ,as Rusty touches Clark's shoulder] Clark: "Don't touch!"
this market is wally world fun park
Can you arrange to have "Holiday Road" with Lindsey Buckingham playing in the background of that?
no, but i do have the original buckingham-nix album with stevie's boo-boo. that one was a keeper
Agreed. Low volume pre-election ramp job.
Everyone on this website needs to be more confident in the analysis that Tyler has provided and the conclusions that we have drawn. Namely, as fool hardy as it seems can there be any doubt that it is now official policy to maintain certain market levels through the manipulation of data(cheapest means) to direct purchase of assets. Someday the curtain will be pulled back, in the meantime forget true price discovery.
You can still pick good shorts. The day the VIX bottomed was when the 7.8% unemployment number came out and the entire world screamed
"BULLSHIT."
Gold's been the best investment for me the past year and a half. I'm not sure if I read about that on this site or not.....
QE-4 announcement coming after jobs report tomorrow is the rumor. Uncle Ben to buy $100 Bil a month in Treasuries in addition to the current $40 Bil MBS. You read it here first.
ISM's Holcomb says orders gain is "decieving" and says more areas are reporting a drop in orders
Obama gets re-elected
Senate stays Dem
Fiscal cliff and debt ceiling hilarity ensues.
Did you ever notice these numbers are always released to have maximum fuckage on the retail crowd?....Or am I just late to the party?
Usually a rising stock market would equate to a weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields, but not today. The correlation seems to be breaking down