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Stocks Sizzle As Apple Fizzles

Tyler Durden's picture




 

 

Today's entire stock market action was contained in the span of an hour starting with the open, following a series of economic data which, as was to be expected, couldn't possibly disappoint several days ahead of the election. Sure enough, after everything came in mostly in line or beat, ES ramped from its recent support level just north of 1400 to a high of about 1424, in no more than 60 minutes, and meandered there for the balance of the day where it also closed, on above average volume. What is interesting is that unlike yesterday, when the ramp took place in the overnight, ES-driven session, following which it fizzled all day, today it finally allowed retail investors to jump in alongside the first of the month capital flows. Needless to say, equities were once again in a vacuum of their own, with the EURUSD sliding, TSYs broadly unchanged, and that one time biggest driver of market upside, Apple, unable to stage any break out.

Stocks sizzled...

... even as AAPL fizzled.

Whether the rally can sustain itself remains to be seen, especially since to many the primary catalyst was, ironically, the now discredited ADP report, which following its "revision" is now expected to be far more accurate and indicative of the "real" NFP, which means many simply have front-ran tomorrow's NFP number which is expected to come in at +125,000 but the whisper "priced in" number is now at 150,000.

Should the NFP disappoint for whatever reason, today's rally will be promptly unwound. On the other hand, as the final major economic datapoint before the election, there is a snowball's chance in hell the NFP beats at anything less than 1 standard deviation. The good news, for those who are sick and tired of the constantly fudged metrics, is that after next week, we revert back to normal, and the mysterious economic push higher (a lot of it reflexive: Why are you confident? because stock are higher. Why are stocks higher? because I am confident) in the past 2 months will finally dissipate.

 

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Thu, 11/01/2012 - 16:29 | 2938781 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

CRAAPL, bitchez

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 16:46 | 2938835 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

look at VIX for tomorrow. and if not tomorrow, then after 2 weeks. BUT what makes anyone including Tyler think that we just can't fudge all these metrics in perpetuity, at this fucked up stage of the rigged ponzi game?

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 17:17 | 2938934 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Yeah, awesome- watch the VIX- it will tell you everything you want to know about the past two hours......

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 16:31 | 2938785 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Not just AAPL, but also PMs fizzled today.  Not touching AAPL again until at least $580.  Pretty sure the stock is going to $500 in early 2013.  

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 16:33 | 2938793 Temporis
Temporis's picture

Don't care. Even if silver drops to $5 and oz, I will still buy.

 

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 16:41 | 2938817 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

i think they (XAGXAU) are both looking constructive. only a small pullback no big deal. we know they are going higher just take it as a gift. average in and stack the phyzz. Anyone paying attention to the silver miners lately will see that something ominous is brewing and that "silver bugs" (and gold) will soon be vindicated

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 16:35 | 2938798 EZYJET PILOT
EZYJET PILOT's picture

Does anyone who works in finance believe these ADP, NFP figures? I know the vast majority of people in banking lack any moral compass or empathy but surely by now these dezinons of hell must be starting to wake up.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 16:54 | 2938856 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

everyone knows the numbers are cooked, which is part of the game right now. think about it: fundamentals are ignored, banks fudging quarters blatently, PE skewed to fantasyland and what, anyone think these figures even matter? NFP is just a rally cry for more fraud.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 16:36 | 2938804 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

retards 1 : realists 0

im shorting this DXY "rally" its so fake. USD short interest is extremely low. USDNOK (viable paper?) is at sept 13th lows and NZD AUD all making progress. The failed currencies (EUR/GBP/JPY) have the heaviest weighting in DXY so thats your answer for "strength". most traders are USD bulls. nostalgic and emotional people.

World is rotating out of US and its extremely obvious. Tyer alerts us to monthly outflows often. its all adding up to be one big mess for you guys...

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 16:48 | 2938841 Precious
Precious's picture

<- Realists

<- Retards

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 18:06 | 2939074 reTARD
reTARD's picture

Can I be both? ;-)

I had to vote Retard btw.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 16:37 | 2938810 bidaskspread
bidaskspread's picture

I am so looking forward to after Nov. 6, getting tired of the old steaming piles of sh!t, looking forward another 4 years of new steaming piles of sh!t.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 18:37 | 2939169 malikai
malikai's picture

Four more wars!

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 16:51 | 2938846 PUD
PUD's picture

Starbucks is the new market leader.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 16:52 | 2938852 vix is for kids
vix is for kids's picture

Despite October's correction, the bull market looks to continue.

1.  Most foreign markets remain (only slighly) in thier uptrends.  The DAX, CAC and FTSE trade at or above their 50 day moving averages.

2.  The VIX (implied volatility) in the high teens in characteristic of bull market action.

3.  Actual volatility is also in the teens

4.  The global slowdown and European debt problems are widely known and should, by now, factored into equity prices.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 17:04 | 2938884 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

It's ok for Apple to retrace, but it's hard to ignore the wind going out of the balloon. The tech sector was up 1.6% today, and Apple could only muster a 0.20% rise. Apple looks like it has a worm in it. Maybe they can change all the settings on the next iPhone so they go to eleven...

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 17:04 | 2938886 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

What a bunch of crap.

October's correction did not "bake in" the debt shit-storm.

This is FED bubble two or three, and a nearly unbelievable display of "irrational exuberance".

Beginning of the quarter "BTFD" bullshit, waiting for next debt diarrhea QE from the world's Central Bank meth addicts so it can ramp the cotton candy markets then be sold near quarter end.

DESPERATION.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 17:46 | 2939019 vix is for kids
vix is for kids's picture

Mr. Ebworthen is quite correct with his observation that the the debt shit storm is not fully accounted for by October's correction.  What this tells me, is that the debt shit storm is an ongoing, multi-year process, that incurs inflation in varying amount and degree.  Stocks, as income producing assets, are a type of inflation hedge, as they have since March '09.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 17:14 | 2938925 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Drilling down we also have Walt Disney getting slammed as well. Since we all know the connection between Apple and Disney (Steve Jobs only owned one stock and it wasn't Apple but Disney) one can infer "what passes for entertainment/is allowed to be called as such (fixing all professional sports, overthrowing Middle Eastern Governments/ executing on Boardroom coups) is changing. And of course if we drill down on the data (the Clintons are doing Syria/Citi is doing Connecticut/the Petnagon is doing Manhattan/lower) all fits in quite well so far.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 17:40 | 2939000 LiesAreTheOnlyTruth
LiesAreTheOnlyTruth's picture

LOL ... yet another printing day for the Fed.

The "hockey stick" formation is proof of more Fed money ... it's typical.

Straight up until 10 and then flatline.  The more they print, the more hockey sticks we get.

Just stay long, this market will NEVER fail ... it can not!  The Fed has unlimited funds to buy it ALL!!

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 18:20 | 2939115 poor fella
poor fella's picture

It's taken half a decade to get people to forget the past and many probably are beginning to think like this - but regardless of how many bullets the Fed has, I think there's going to be A LOT of people waking up one day and in a perfect chorus of national (and global) harmony, singing, "AHHHHHHHHHhhhhhhhh....        shit!"          We're not overdue a 400 point DOWn-day - more like 1k points. Dodging bullets is a cool skill - just don't confuse skill with luck!   ;)  

I don't understand - Is the Fed's 'put' supposed to keep markets elevated at this level for a year (or longer) until real people jump in and drive things higher? Ponzi Street will be waiting a long time for participation. If easy money by itself drives markets much higher than this - then we will be forced to accept we are in a world where NOTHING makes sense. At some point, when you are IN RECESSION, cracks form, and shit breaks. Especially in a financialized levered world of binary nonsense where a very few insiders are rewarded.  Period.   "."   <---!!

Days like today drive me absolutely $#%^&*ing NUTS!! Almost interested in what B Pastrami has to 'say'....   nah 

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 19:10 | 2939269 Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

+

We're nearing that realization. The FED can pump assets prices all it wants. What helped keep the world alive, was industrial production and mining demand based on inflation expectations. But the fed cannot create demand And sooner or later in the absence of real organic growth, this bubble too will pop. Very soon, Gold will decouple from other commodities.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 17:50 | 2939022 LMAO
LMAO's picture

NFP?

Huh, the Big Zero was on the shitbox tonite doing his campaign dog and pony show, of which it seems the US sheeple never tire, claiming he created 5,000,000 Jobs!

That's a fucking LOT.....and how many jobs has that fukstick O'Romney created?....well there you go!

Not a word on how many jobs were lost in the process though.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 18:21 | 2939119 chump666
chump666's picture

front run rally on predicable data despite USD spot prices showing liquidity tightening. All and all Obama may get "his" number tomorrow.  Rally could flatten out.  But as long as commodities are sell and USD is bid, equities aren't going into hyperspace.  Everything has been priced in.

It is very much an Obama rally.

http://youtu.be/O75JX7CiQig

 

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 18:32 | 2939152 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Only a few more days till the 'We just gotta suspend reality and pump it for 'Obama rally payback' season' is gone....should be fun.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 18:38 | 2939173 ekm
ekm's picture

We are way, way, way beyong the point of a normal market operation.

Stocks have no choice but to go up. I repeat again, stocks have no choice but to go up.

Hedge Funds and Mutual Funds are suffering redemtions and Primary Dealers are FORCED to buy what mutual funds and hedgies are selling. Only Primary Dealers have access to infinite money and have the operational capabilities to buy and buy and buy and buy.

 

MFG was the preview of what is inevitable. The inevitable is 2000 dow points a day for 5 days in row, once next Primary Dealer is forced to collapse.

MFG collapsed because they were FORCED to buy italian bonds.

 

If anybody knows which of the Primary Dealers is getting PARTICULARLY stuffed with stocks, that one will be the trigger towards the inevitable abyss.


Thu, 11/01/2012 - 19:32 | 2939322 helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

I thought Primary Dealers were, only, obligated to bid on Treasury Auctions?

If MFG was deep in Italian bonds it is because Goldman-Sachs tricked them into buying with JPMC money.

When cds protection jumped 100 bps they got a collateral call.

Banks make the wrong move and lose money.

Criminals cover collateral calls with farmers/customer funds.

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 21:04 | 2939547 ekm
ekm's picture

I did not mean obligated. This is what I meant:

Assume I own 40% of of stock XYZ. Now the anybody else started to sell.

What do I do? Well, I do not want my holdings to lose value, so I buy what the others are selling. It is called FORCED BUYING.

 

I can buy but have nobody to sell to. Also, I can buy until..........I run out of money and I start borrowing to buy until nobody will lend me money any longer and get a margin call. That's when I'm screwed and toss everything into the market.

 

Primary Dealers started buying stocks since QE1 but the usual suckers are retiring and are pulling money out. So Primary Dealers are stuck.

 

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 19:50 | 2939345 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Time to lease some backfilling equipment from "CAT". There are some large gaps to be filled when that 200day finally gives way.

  Control to "Braeburn Central"~~~~~/  Do you copy B/C?~~~~~/ crickets chirping...

Thu, 11/01/2012 - 23:29 | 2939971 chump666
chump666's picture

look like oil futures just flash crashed. some strange trading on that one last few hours

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