Better Than Expected Jobs Number Sends Market To Day's... Lows?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

When summarizing yesterday's first of the month ramp, we said: "Should the NFP disappoint for whatever reason, today's rally will be promptly unwound. On the other hand, as the final major economic datapoint before the election, there is a snowball's chance in hell the NFP beats at anything less than 1 standard deviation [ZH: this was proven this morning when the NFP printed above the highest Wall Street estimate, a 3std dev beat]. The good news, for those who are sick and tired of the constantly fudged metrics, is that after next week, we revert back to normal, and the mysterious economic push higher (a lot of it reflexive: Why are you confident? because stock are higher. Why are stocks higher? because I am confident) in the past 2 months will finally dissipate." Which is why anyone looking for a reason why the futures have proceeded to slide to their day's lows, this may be it: all the good news is now fully priced in. Things to look forward to now: Fiscal Cliff, Debt ceiling debate, further collapse of Greek and potential resumption of Grexit speculation (just look at the EURUSD), Spain bailout (Spanish bonds today are very unhappy), and the prompt unwind of all "better than expected" jobs number following the election, regardless of who wins the Oscar for best presidential performance. Because now there is an alibi for not only weak future numbers, but for historical revisions. It's name is "Sandy" - get used to it: it will be the excuse for every upcoming economic data miss until January.

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Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:37 | 2941042 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Anyone want to lend me their allocation of RH so I can short it?

Who buys this crap?

 

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:38 | 2941069 malikai
malikai's picture

WTF am I looking at?

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:45 | 2941087 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

It may look like the same junk you can buy for pennies at any flea market, but that there is a pile of 27 times net income.  You don't recognize it?

The IPO price valued Restoration Hardware at $887.3 million, or 27 times net income in the 12 months through July, making the stock about 64 percent more expensive than peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

 

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-02/restoration-hardware-surges-after-ipo

When the lock-up ends, after this pre-election consumer CONfidence boom, this thing is going to float like a Led Zeppelin.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:50 | 2941122 malikai
malikai's picture

Wait a minute. You mean Sanford and Son went public.. For >$880 million?!

EDIT: Looks like you've struck a nerve with some shareholders. Perhaps instead of downvoting you they could consider loaning their shares to you. It won't stop the hemmorhaging, but I guess they should have thought twice before buying..

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:57 | 2941167 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

"It's name is "Sandy" - get used to it: it will be the excuse for every upcoming economic data miss until January."

You mean January 2014, right?

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:49 | 2941130 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Dude, I'm packing the house to move to the next one and I have sooo much stuff that looks just like that. Anyone need a wood stove in good condition from 1900? Shipping by UPS might be a bit steep. Any of you NYC guys?

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:56 | 2941159 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

I was watching Bloomberg's maneater wonder aloud to her co-host why the markets weren't celebrating the fantastic jobs numbers.

 

I can only imagine how the BBG hosts and hostesses are falling over themselves to hop on to Mikey's obama bandwagon.

 

Even bloomberg's special friend cum  private moneymanager Rattner of Willett penned an editorial in the FT

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7933d8ae-2284-11e2-b606-00144feabdc0.html#axzz...

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:47 | 2941117 Cunnial
Cunnial's picture

A really awful carpet!

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:47 | 2941118 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

A wheelbarrow.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:56 | 2941160 Agent P
Agent P's picture

I believe that was the inspiration for Disney's Wall-E...which is sure to make an appearance in the next Star Wars movie.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:28 | 2941273 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Actually, the inspiration for both of them was Johnny 5:

http://www.michaelerb.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/comparison.jpg

 

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:40 | 2941329 Agent P
Agent P's picture

And what a fine piece of cinematography that was...I think Steve Guttenberg won the Academy Award for Best Actor that year.

Sat, 11/03/2012 - 00:22 | 2943623 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

"Who controls the British crown?
Who keeps the metric system down?
We do! We do!


Who leaves Atlantis off the maps?
Who keeps the Martians under wraps?
We do! We do!


Who holds back the electric car?
Who made Steve Gutenberg a star?
We do! We do!


Who robs cave fish of their sight?
Who rigs every Oscar night?
We do! We do!" -- The Stonecutters, The Simpsons

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:24 | 2941260 oddball
oddball's picture

I saw that on "American Pickers"!  

Think I will buy a van and head east.  Eazy money.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:52 | 2941374 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Remember, ALL the 'good news' is already out there.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:57 | 2941391 Robert-Paulson
Robert-Paulson's picture

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DXY/charts?symb=DXY&time=12&s...

 

 

Correct me if I'm wrong here, fellas

But, is it not all about the above??

Help me out here

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 12:02 | 2941412 Orly
Orly's picture

Love the avatar, RP!

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 12:16 | 2941487 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

But, is it not all about the above??

Yes, it is.

Timmy and Ben will someday be considered early American heros of the Great Resource Wars.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 12:05 | 2941433 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

An early prototype of WALL-E.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 13:01 | 2941659 graneros
graneros's picture

You are looking at an old pallet and pallet jack combo.  Long before the invention of the pallet jack you would have found these in most manufacturing plants.

Sat, 11/03/2012 - 00:23 | 2943627 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Looks like a luggage cart from a train station to me...

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:43 | 2941098 PUD
PUD's picture

I like the thing a ma jig on the wall or door or whatever the fuck it's hanging on.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:42 | 2941124 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Yeah, well, you cannot get that cool shit except at a junkyard (free) or rent it by the hour at a prop house in The Village. 

You can buy the lamp!

How do you feel about that floor lamp?  Do you like it $379 Bernanke Bucks?

Atelier Task Floor Lamp Bronze

$379.00
Our floor lamp, inspired by pharmacy lamps of the early 1900s, features articulated extension arms that glide on precision-jointed hardware.
 
Or you can get pretty much the same lamp, probably made in the very same factory in China, for $39.19 at Target.
Pharmacy Floor Lamp
 
$39.19
Gain some extra light in any room with the sleek style of this Pharmacy floor lamp. This lamp features a metal base that displays an oil rubbed bronze finish. The warm brown of the bronze color can complement a variety of color schemes and décor.
 
Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:54 | 2941152 larz
larz's picture

I have one of those in my basement

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:57 | 2941166 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

Who buys this crap?

 

RH targets consumers with household incomes of $200,000 or higher, according to regulatory filings.

 

 IOW, people with more money than sense!

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:53 | 2941378 Agent P
Agent P's picture

They must have bad data on me, because they send me a 6 pound, 3" thick, high gloss furniture porn catalog every six months or so, and I make considerably less than that.  I also have never bought anything from them...though I did once sit in a leather chair in one of their stores that was so comfortable I started to get an erection...then I looked at the price tag and the mood was instantly broken. 

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:01 | 2941182 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

 

 

Sure, and if you don't don't have time for RH, there's always hedgie favorite PCLN.  It's 10+% beta chase ramp-o-rama this morning puts the forward P/E somewhere in the 13,000 X range.  Sounds like a great "value" to me.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:35 | 2941308 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

There IS some potential good news in the future, namely, the next FOMC meeting.  

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:34 | 2941044 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Prospect of a second term?

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:45 | 2941106 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

So the race is close. What happens if we get to watch "Hanging Chad II"? One might posit that no president is the best outcome possible but I doubt the markets or the credit agencies would like it.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:34 | 2941046 jimijon
jimijon's picture

Silver routing today

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:54 | 2941150 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Today is a good day to buy.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:18 | 2941238 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

It used to be bad was good because it meant Ben would print. The new reality is that good is bad because Ben will stop printing. The euro gapped down on the NFP for that reason and hasn't stopped. I'm getting dizzy trying to see things in reverse-logic market-think. Just sell everything else and keep buying silver (they're going to come after your gold).

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:35 | 2941050 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

"[...]we revert back to normal". Don't be so sure, especially since normal is so fucking abnormal [e.g. SP 2x real value at 1400ish!].

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:36 | 2941054 SilverMoneyBags
SilverMoneyBags's picture

News doesn't matter. The market blows and down we go.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:37 | 2941061 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

Stocks are not doing too bad compared to silver and gold which has come down $100/oz in two weeks or so.

I know the big picture is somewhat different. And, and, nothing makes much sense anyway.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:59 | 2941173 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Silver and Gold are getting absolutely hammered this morning...

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:53 | 2941373 GCT
GCT's picture

Getting closer and closer to the election time.  Watch the markets rally next week big time.  Would not matter who is sitting in the office. 

SmallerGov I think they will do their best to hammer commodities and PM's until the election is over.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:37 | 2941064 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

If a government would lie about terrorism, lie about Benghazi, lie about the causes of the recession, lie about the strength of recovery, lie about fast and furious,  lie about the debt, lie about Obamacare, (feel free to continue) then why would we be shocked that they lie about NFP?

How do some rationally conclude that the government is truthful on some topics, and willing to do whatever it takes on others?

You cannot believe anything they say.

 

 

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:50 | 2941119 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

We don't leave a man behind except in Benghazi....good thing Chris Matthews doesn't know where that is......that's all we'd be hearing about.

 

Benghazi this.....Benghazi that.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:01 | 2941183 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Chris Matthews is the biggest tool on the planet...

A very dull tool I might add...

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:11 | 2941214 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

why can't CM join Tim Russert in hell-like I ever wanted to read a book about Russert's fucking garbageman dad.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:14 | 2941229 Orly
Orly's picture

Dude.  Seriously?

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:36 | 2941310 tsx500
tsx500's picture

wow....Happy Friday , Otto !

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:39 | 2941321 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Because the Federal Government still has to pay for the trillion dollar hole in the MTA's budget...and when you outright LIE about that and SCREAM "Obama or your life!" you only make it worse. In short "IT HAD BETTER BE A REALISTIC TIMETABLE." ("It" being "recovery.")

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:41 | 2941070 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

there is only one constant....

Silver and Gold must be suppressed at all cost on every occassion......

 

FUCK YOU BERNANKE AND ALL YOU DEBT COUPON DOLLAR BITCH ASS BANKERS.......

and im stacking some mo' as soon as my dealer opens up YOU BITCHEZ.......

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:40 | 2941083 govttrader
govttrader's picture

Pretty amazing this price action in the govt bond market...

 

http://govttrader.blogspot.com/2012/11/trading-with-weekly-profile.html

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:42 | 2941089 gjp
gjp's picture

Don't think the banksters are too unhappy right now.  They're holding on to yesterday's rally, gold and silver are getting hammered, oil is near lows for the year, stocks still near their highs, and they are having a ramp fest with ridiculous valuation momo darlings like AMZN and WFM.  Yes, it's bankster paradise today ... again.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:47 | 2941114 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

desperate acts of impudent sociopaths tryin to preserve their debt based paradigm...

like a child turning over his cereal bowl to garner attention...

it changes nothing.....the debt coupon dollar days r done.....

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