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Merrill Lynch: "Greek Risk Is Back"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

You read about it here first (here and here). Now it is time for the sellside (whose products your soft dollars so generously fund) to wake up to what is happening next week.

From Bank of Countrywide Lynch.

Greek Risk Is Back

 

The estimated majority margin of only 5 votes for a key parliamentary vote on Wednesday seems too small to feel comfortable. If the vote goes wrong, Greece exit scenarios will come back.

 

Don't let Greek fatigue blindside you Greece is a key risk next week. The Parliament will vote on a new austerity and reform package on Wednesday and the 2013 budget on Sunday, following substantial delays in the negotiations with the Troika. The risk of a negative vote on Wednesday is real, as Democratic Left (third party in government coalition) is threatening to vote against the package because of opposition to labour market reforms, while a number of PASOK parliamentarians (second party in coalition) are threatening to vote against the package because they believe that it is against the coalition government agreement. Assuming these threats materialize, the government majority drops from 25 to 5 (it was 29 after the last election).

 

This is far from a comfortable margin. A negative vote will be a very negative event for the markets in our view, as Greece is unlikely to receive the next tranche from the Troika and markets could start pricing a Greek Euro exit. Even if the vote is positive, a small majority raises questions about the sustainability of the government and suggests that future votes on program reforms could be at risk. In the meantime, the continuous deterioration of government debt dynamics makes an official sector haircut inevitable in our view. Indeed, we believe that the IMF cannot disburse its part of the next tranche, unless debt sustainability is restored

 

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Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:12 | 2941219 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Greek is always risky.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:24 | 2941264 redpill
redpill's picture

Unless you're talking about tzatziki sauce, that shit is the bomb.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:29 | 2941283 malikai
malikai's picture

Oh how I miss a good Gyro.

Over here all we get is those cheap Turkish imitations (donar kebab).

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:45 | 2941348 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Washed down with a vintage Retsina.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:45 | 2941347 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Spanikopita, so good and so good for you.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:56 | 2941386 caconhma
caconhma's picture

I am just sick and tired with all this Creek BS. Enough is enough. How long can it go?

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 17:00 | 2942757 crusty curmudgeon
crusty curmudgeon's picture

"The risk of a negative vote on Wednesday is real..."

Coincidentally (of course), it looks like it will go on at least until the day after the US election.

Sat, 11/03/2012 - 02:35 | 2943731 Middle_Finger_Market
Middle_Finger_Market's picture

Geithners plan culminates...muhahahahah muhahahahahahahahahaha muhahahahahahaahhaa

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 12:20 | 2941503 Drachma
Drachma's picture

Spanakotiropita. Don't forget the cheese.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 12:31 | 2941542 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Amen.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:31 | 2941289 monkeyboy
monkeyboy's picture

Greek is always risky.

 

Pretty much guaranteed to end in shit.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:59 | 2941313 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

...guaranteed to end in shit.

 

yep...that's how it goes when you go Greek.

 

(edit: wow, I see the greek trolls are out today.) #winning

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:15 | 2941223 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Hey Merrill..I would like to personally thank you for the fiat I made buying puts on your company during the crisis... the proceeds unfortunately are now located at the bottom of lake lost in an terrible boating accident.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:18 | 2941235 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

The proceeds at the bottom of that lake are taking a major pounding this morning (ouch).  We test 1650 for gold or 29 for silver and I'm BTFD...

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:21 | 2941248 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

"Greek Risk Is Back"

When did it leave?

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:24 | 2941263 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

how the f**k did qe, kick da can, economic number bullshitting last all the way to the election?

i thot it would cave in first

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:45 | 2941351 Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

I find your lack of faith disturbing

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 13:03 | 2941671 Lukacko
Lukacko's picture

If You See Something, Say Something

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:39 | 2941320 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

Whats Greece done in this artical , thats right NOTHING as per usual , but lets pretend that there is going to be a vote, no a meeting, no a who gives a fuck , untill guns are involved NOTHING will change. 

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 12:06 | 2941437 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Merrill should have used the title "Merrill has taken its pills for memory loss today"

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:24 | 2941258 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

This old chestnut again? How many more muppets can they soak on this charade?

Most of all, do the demonstrators have it within to offer more blood on the streets?

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:47 | 2941355 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Buy Buy Buy!!

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:33 | 2941303 kito
kito's picture

doc, you better hold on to much of that fiat, you are going to need it in the coming storm.....................

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:37 | 2941316 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Hey kito...I keep plenty in a secure location. There is just enough in the system to pay the bills..the rest gets squirreled away.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:45 | 2941349 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

I think what kito means is that as there is a storm (Sandy) the power might go down and hence you need some fuel (fiat) to burn to keep warm!

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:48 | 2941359 sickofthepunx
sickofthepunx's picture

why anyone would keep cash in a bank when interest rates are zero is beyond me.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 12:03 | 2941418 kito
kito's picture

a dollar in hand is worth 2 in the bank.............

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 12:43 | 2941592 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

I thought a $ in the hand is worth about 8 in the bank? It called fractional reserve banking!

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 12:46 | 2941602 kito
kito's picture

touche!!!

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:59 | 2941396 Kalevi
Kalevi's picture

You obviously made a bundle...

From Tradewinds:

CARGOSHIP GOES MISSING
Russian authorities are searching for a cargoship that went missing with a cargo of gold in the Okhotsk Sea.
The vessel, named as Amurskaya, had 11 crew and 600 tons of the precious metal on board when it sent a signal for help on Sunday morning.A nearby tanker has been searching the area, but helicopters were unable to fly due to poor visibility.The vessel loaded the cargo in Kiran between October 24 and 27, and then headed to Okhotsk.Two small Russian ships are listed under the name Amurskaya: a 1,200-dwt motor hopper (built 1983) operated by Tunaki-2 of Astrakhan, and a 600-dwt general  cargo vessel (built 1973), managed by Morport of Khabarovsk.

Created: 09:18 GMT, 29 Oct 2012
By: Gary Dixon, London

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 13:03 | 2941668 centerline
centerline's picture

Tragic boating accidents becoming much more common these days I am to understand.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:19 | 2941240 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

And here comes Douche Bank begging for taxpayer bailout (of Douche Bank):

Deutsche Bank Folkerts-Landau Favors 3rd Greek Aid Package: FAZ

Dear fiat, Your days are numbered. And I'm glad for that.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:38 | 2941245 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

"Greek Risk Is Back"

 

Who cares?  Bernanke is currently buying $85 billion a month in assets, including $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities every month.

He can print Greece's GDP in just 4 months.  So what effect can Greece be expected to have on  US markets?  None.

The Fed controls every market including silver and gold.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:22 | 2941254 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Easy money to be made on this fear next week.  

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:24 | 2941261 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Time for the next GS puppet to become *dictator* errr president of Greece

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:25 | 2941265 HedgeFun
HedgeFun's picture

Im surpised there are no comments on picture of the guys dancing in tutus and clown shoes

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:48 | 2941357 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Don't make fun of them. That is the Greek "Honor Guard".

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 12:12 | 2941266 Dareconomics
Dareconomics's picture

The political situation is becoming critical, and the government may fall. A Syriza led coalition promises to renegotiate the bailout.

http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2012/11/02/lagarde-list-destabilizes-g...

 

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:26 | 2941268 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

The jobs numbers have been confirmed...

Remember bagdad bob?

http://memegenerator.net/instance/29465213

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:27 | 2941272 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Risk, Shmisk.  

Waitress Merkel, don't bring the check yet and another round of bailouts for my PIGS friends.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:28 | 2941276 Calidreaming
Calidreaming's picture

Greece is like Herpes.   may go away for a few weeks but you just cant get rid of it. 

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:28 | 2941277 Calidreaming
Calidreaming's picture

Greece is like Herpes.   may go away for a few weeks but you just cant get rid of it. 

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 16:13 | 2942558 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Greece is not like Herpes; The banksta cabal that will fold, if Greece kicks it in the balls like it should if the people had their way, is the Herpes. Its those greek oligarchy shills who have 800 Billion in Swiss land that are the true machiavellic shills and its the 10 million others who are the lambs we feed to the Hannibal Lector of the Banskta cabal. 

Stop watching the spyglass in inverted fashion.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:32 | 2941300 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

I wondered why PMs were getting monkey hammered.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:37 | 2941315 realtick
realtick's picture

CFPGH vs Zero Hedge - Gold & The Fed's Balance Sheet http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2012/11/cfpgh-vs-zero-h...

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:40 | 2941325 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I don't recall Greek risk ever leaving. It just stepped into the shitter, to change it's diapers for the next round of "nein nein nein" from Fraulein Merkel.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:43 | 2941338 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Spanish Covered Bonds are all in default - Be aware

"-CEDULAS HIPOTECARIAS SON BASURA" 

 

Waterfall, Institutional, Legal , Counterparty and marketmaker risk, 

 

Market dry, like a freaking martini .

 

SHORT EUROPEAN BANKS NOW¡

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:44 | 2941343 evolutionx
evolutionx's picture

PIGS Yields are climbing....

 

http://www.cds-info.com/

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 12:05 | 2941430 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Thanks for the link...

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:44 | 2941344 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

There's gonna be a vote to screw the Banksters.  Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha!  No, no really...stop it, yer kill'n me....... a vote.....Banksters screwed!  Too rich!  Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha!

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:55 | 2941385 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Election season fantasyland' for markets has 1 trading day left.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 12:09 | 2941449 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Can't imagine with unemployment the way it is and that none of the past austerity has done anything but make things worse, that as a politician you are going to vote for more pain and really fear for your family's safety and future prosperity....on the other hand, most politicians probably moved their families out years ago along with their gold...

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 12:15 | 2941478 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

MARKET FORECAST.

As mentioned - SPX / CL / HG / GC / EURUSD daily charts continue to break down.

http://trader618.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 12:18 | 2941496 1835jackson
1835jackson's picture

So you are saying there's a chance! Yeah!

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 15:12 | 2942273 viahj
viahj's picture

HA, we finally fucking found one of you!

Now, where's that gold plated tungsten queer bot that you pal around with?

Sat, 11/03/2012 - 01:26 | 2943679 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Bite my splintery, wooden @ss!  I'll never rat out a fellow bot!

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 12:46 | 2941600 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

There is actually one superb comment in the article.

"Don't let Greece fatigue blind you"

This is profoundly right.  Greece remains the number one way the whole thing unravels.  Merkel and the Dutch and Austrians will not be able to sell "that money we loaned Greece is gone" to their electorates.

Up until now the EU could bribe Greek MPs to keep the wheels turning, but the end of that road may be here, primarily because PASOK has gone from being the dominant party to 7% in the polls.  They will NOT hold any seats at all if there's another election anytime soon and their members are terrified of this and may insist on voting to keep their seats, rather than keep the EU together.

When that equation emerges and politics demands they vote no, then they WILL vote no.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 12:56 | 2941642 1835jackson
1835jackson's picture

How about this outlandish theory? I think there will be an absolute collapse of the EU in the next month right on track to coincide with the touted 12/21/12 Mayan bullshit theory that most of the ignorant masses have swallowed. Then there will be an attack by UFO's which the Government has known about for about decades.

Given the ensuing economic collapse and the alien invasion the people will turn to anybody with an answer. Enter the NWO.

I must caveat all this with…I could be wrong.

Wow! What have I been smoking!

 

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 13:14 | 2941713 Joe A
Joe A's picture

I don't know what you have been smoking but can I have some of it?

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 13:18 | 2941730 Vigilante
Vigilante's picture

The situation is very critical right now in Greece.

Pasok (socialists) is in a state of rebellion/collapse.

Even if the govt manages to pull off some compromise, the next 'reckoning' will be fatal for the coalition govt.

Elections and a radical left (Syriza) win will trigger Grexit most probably.

Amen..

Sat, 11/03/2012 - 01:28 | 2943682 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Yer conspiracy theory has almost everything (except for the Lizard people that are secretly running the various Govt's...)

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 13:36 | 2941828 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

Greece, the loose thread on a cheap sock.

The EU will go barefoot.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 18:44 | 2943121 Herdee
Herdee's picture

The truth is that GoldmanSachs set up a huge ponzi scheme for Greece in order to hide their large debts to European Regulators.That information has still not been made available and is a secret that is being kept from the public.Are some of the Euro Regulators themselves part of the scheme?And who knew what and when?We don't know.But what we do know is that nobody cares what they do to the Greek people.The biggest problem however is the massive unregulated OTC derivatives positions that are outstanding.The bans on shorting and naked short selling are desperate attempts to slow down the coming meltdown.And we all know one thing,the markets slowly go up like a stairway but always take the express elevator down.How many hundreds of billions if not a trillion has been set up over time so that the giant ponzi scheme can make a fortune on taking the elevator down to the basement?That's where the real money is for the crooks.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 23:18 | 2943544 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Yup.

Watched a good hour long PBS documentary about Goldman Slacks facilitating the legerdemain.

Doesn't matter what country the regular folks who get up and go to work and pay their bills and take care of their families get it in the ass.

Time to tear down the banker/central banker kleptoligarchies; politicians are the lubricators of the anal rape of their own citizenry.

Far too few riots and hangings in our complicit "modern" times.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 23:11 | 2943531 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

What BS...They have always made deals and they will continue..The politicians will be bought off and will aprove the measure..This is a dog and pony show to make it sound as if it won't pass..ot woll...

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 23:15 | 2943539 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Greece should have defaulted two years ago.

All the Euro satellites should default and give the banks and central bankers the shaft.

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