Merrill Lynch: "Greek Risk Is Back"

Tyler Durden's picture


You read about it here first (here and here). Now it is time for the sellside (whose products your soft dollars so generously fund) to wake up to what is happening next week.

From Bank of Countrywide Lynch.

Greek Risk Is Back


The estimated majority margin of only 5 votes for a key parliamentary vote on Wednesday seems too small to feel comfortable. If the vote goes wrong, Greece exit scenarios will come back.


Don't let Greek fatigue blindside you Greece is a key risk next week. The Parliament will vote on a new austerity and reform package on Wednesday and the 2013 budget on Sunday, following substantial delays in the negotiations with the Troika. The risk of a negative vote on Wednesday is real, as Democratic Left (third party in government coalition) is threatening to vote against the package because of opposition to labour market reforms, while a number of PASOK parliamentarians (second party in coalition) are threatening to vote against the package because they believe that it is against the coalition government agreement. Assuming these threats materialize, the government majority drops from 25 to 5 (it was 29 after the last election).


This is far from a comfortable margin. A negative vote will be a very negative event for the markets in our view, as Greece is unlikely to receive the next tranche from the Troika and markets could start pricing a Greek Euro exit. Even if the vote is positive, a small majority raises questions about the sustainability of the government and suggests that future votes on program reforms could be at risk. In the meantime, the continuous deterioration of government debt dynamics makes an official sector haircut inevitable in our view. Indeed, we believe that the IMF cannot disburse its part of the next tranche, unless debt sustainability is restored

Your rating: None

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:12 | 2941219 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Greek is always risky.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:24 | 2941264 redpill
redpill's picture

Unless you're talking about tzatziki sauce, that shit is the bomb.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:29 | 2941283 malikai
malikai's picture

Oh how I miss a good Gyro.

Over here all we get is those cheap Turkish imitations (donar kebab).

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:45 | 2941348 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Washed down with a vintage Retsina.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:45 | 2941347 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Spanikopita, so good and so good for you.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:56 | 2941386 caconhma
caconhma's picture

I am just sick and tired with all this Creek BS. Enough is enough. How long can it go?

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 17:00 | 2942757 crusty curmudgeon
crusty curmudgeon's picture

"The risk of a negative vote on Wednesday is real..."

Coincidentally (of course), it looks like it will go on at least until the day after the US election.

Sat, 11/03/2012 - 02:35 | 2943731 Middle_Finger_Market
Middle_Finger_Market's picture

Geithners plan culminates...muhahahahah muhahahahahahahahahaha muhahahahahahaahhaa

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 12:20 | 2941503 Drachma
Drachma's picture

Spanakotiropita. Don't forget the cheese.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 12:31 | 2941542 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture


Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:31 | 2941289 monkeyboy
monkeyboy's picture

Greek is always risky.


Pretty much guaranteed to end in shit.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:59 | 2941313 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

...guaranteed to end in shit.


yep...that's how it goes when you go Greek.


(edit: wow, I see the greek trolls are out today.) #winning

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:15 | 2941223 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Hey Merrill..I would like to personally thank you for the fiat I made buying puts on your company during the crisis... the proceeds unfortunately are now located at the bottom of lake lost in an terrible boating accident.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:18 | 2941235 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

The proceeds at the bottom of that lake are taking a major pounding this morning (ouch).  We test 1650 for gold or 29 for silver and I'm BTFD...

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:21 | 2941248 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

"Greek Risk Is Back"

When did it leave?

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:24 | 2941263 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

how the f**k did qe, kick da can, economic number bullshitting last all the way to the election?

i thot it would cave in first

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:45 | 2941351 Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

I find your lack of faith disturbing

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 13:03 | 2941671 Lukacko
Lukacko's picture

If You See Something, Say Something

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:39 | 2941320 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

Whats Greece done in this artical , thats right NOTHING as per usual , but lets pretend that there is going to be a vote, no a meeting, no a who gives a fuck , untill guns are involved NOTHING will change. 

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 12:06 | 2941437 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Merrill should have used the title "Merrill has taken its pills for memory loss today"

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:24 | 2941258 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

This old chestnut again? How many more muppets can they soak on this charade?

Most of all, do the demonstrators have it within to offer more blood on the streets?

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:47 | 2941355 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Buy Buy Buy!!

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:33 | 2941303 kito
kito's picture

doc, you better hold on to much of that fiat, you are going to need it in the coming storm.....................

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:37 | 2941316 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Hey kito...I keep plenty in a secure location. There is just enough in the system to pay the bills..the rest gets squirreled away.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:45 | 2941349 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

I think what kito means is that as there is a storm (Sandy) the power might go down and hence you need some fuel (fiat) to burn to keep warm!

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:48 | 2941359 sickofthepunx
sickofthepunx's picture

why anyone would keep cash in a bank when interest rates are zero is beyond me.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 12:03 | 2941418 kito
kito's picture

a dollar in hand is worth 2 in the bank.............

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 12:43 | 2941592 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

I thought a $ in the hand is worth about 8 in the bank? It called fractional reserve banking!

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 12:46 | 2941602 kito
kito's picture


Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:59 | 2941396 Kalevi
Kalevi's picture

You obviously made a bundle...

From Tradewinds:

Russian authorities are searching for a cargoship that went missing with a cargo of gold in the Okhotsk Sea.
The vessel, named as Amurskaya, had 11 crew and 600 tons of the precious metal on board when it sent a signal for help on Sunday morning.A nearby tanker has been searching the area, but helicopters were unable to fly due to poor visibility.The vessel loaded the cargo in Kiran between October 24 and 27, and then headed to Okhotsk.Two small Russian ships are listed under the name Amurskaya: a 1,200-dwt motor hopper (built 1983) operated by Tunaki-2 of Astrakhan, and a 600-dwt general  cargo vessel (built 1973), managed by Morport of Khabarovsk.

Created: 09:18 GMT, 29 Oct 2012
By: Gary Dixon, London

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 13:03 | 2941668 centerline
centerline's picture

Tragic boating accidents becoming much more common these days I am to understand.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:19 | 2941240 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

And here comes Douche Bank begging for taxpayer bailout (of Douche Bank):

Deutsche Bank Folkerts-Landau Favors 3rd Greek Aid Package: FAZ

Dear fiat, Your days are numbered. And I'm glad for that.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:38 | 2941245 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

"Greek Risk Is Back"


Who cares?  Bernanke is currently buying $85 billion a month in assets, including $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities every month.

He can print Greece's GDP in just 4 months.  So what effect can Greece be expected to have on  US markets?  None.

The Fed controls every market including silver and gold.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:22 | 2941254 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Easy money to be made on this fear next week.  

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:24 | 2941261 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Time for the next GS puppet to become *dictator* errr president of Greece

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:25 | 2941265 HedgeFun
HedgeFun's picture

Im surpised there are no comments on picture of the guys dancing in tutus and clown shoes

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:48 | 2941357 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Don't make fun of them. That is the Greek "Honor Guard".

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 12:12 | 2941266 Dareconomics
Dareconomics's picture

The political situation is becoming critical, and the government may fall. A Syriza led coalition promises to renegotiate the bailout.


Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:26 | 2941268 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

The jobs numbers have been confirmed...

Remember bagdad bob?

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:27 | 2941272 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Risk, Shmisk.  

Waitress Merkel, don't bring the check yet and another round of bailouts for my PIGS friends.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:28 | 2941276 Calidreaming
Calidreaming's picture

Greece is like Herpes.   may go away for a few weeks but you just cant get rid of it. 

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:28 | 2941277 Calidreaming
Calidreaming's picture

Greece is like Herpes.   may go away for a few weeks but you just cant get rid of it. 

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 16:13 | 2942558 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Greece is not like Herpes; The banksta cabal that will fold, if Greece kicks it in the balls like it should if the people had their way, is the Herpes. Its those greek oligarchy shills who have 800 Billion in Swiss land that are the true machiavellic shills and its the 10 million others who are the lambs we feed to the Hannibal Lector of the Banskta cabal. 

Stop watching the spyglass in inverted fashion.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:32 | 2941300 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

I wondered why PMs were getting monkey hammered.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:37 | 2941315 realtick
realtick's picture

CFPGH vs Zero Hedge - Gold & The Fed's Balance Sheet

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:40 | 2941325 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I don't recall Greek risk ever leaving. It just stepped into the shitter, to change it's diapers for the next round of "nein nein nein" from Fraulein Merkel.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:43 | 2941338 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Spanish Covered Bonds are all in default - Be aware



Waterfall, Institutional, Legal , Counterparty and marketmaker risk, 


Market dry, like a freaking martini .



Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:44 | 2941343 evolutionx
evolutionx's picture

PIGS Yields are climbing....

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 12:05 | 2941430 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Thanks for the link...

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:44 | 2941344 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

There's gonna be a vote to screw the Banksters.  Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha!  No, no really...stop it, yer kill'n me....... a vote.....Banksters screwed!  Too rich!  Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!