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Putting Today's Job Number In "Seasonally Adjusted" Context

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Today's jobs number is expected to come at 125,000, with a high estimate of 154,000 from John Hancock financial, and a low of 30,000 from Westpac Banking, and with a whisper expectation at 150,000 courtesy of yesterday's "stronger than expected" ADP re-revised print. A beat or miss at over 1 standard deviation will promptly wake the HFT algos from their deep slumber. Wait did we say miss? Hah. Anyway, just to put today's seasonally adjusted expected monthly job growth in context, below is a chart showing the average seasonal adjustment for each month of the year in the past decade. In October, seasonal adjustments subtract just over 1 million "jobs" (purely statistically of course, merely to smooth the underlying "noise"). This means that the final monthly print will be just over 10% of the actual X-12-ARIMA goalseeked statistical adjustment. Add to this another ~80K or so which will be "added" from the birth death adjustment, and one can see how in the grand scheme of things, the statistical error factor alone dwarfs what is the actual underlying data. To think that in this labyrinth of layered adjustments to an actual number, the BLS will somehow allow the final number to be disappointing means having a locked bid on the Alaska to Russia bridge market.

 

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Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:01 | 2940462 vinayjha
vinayjha's picture

Till election is not over, all the job number has to come good. Manipulation is only last ray of hope for OBama and Ben.

http://www.freefdawatchlist.com/2012/11/stocks-for-nov-2nd-pcln-trip-sbux-aig.html

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:04 | 2940468 economics9698
economics9698's picture

If the government is going to manipulate the seasonal adjustments for political proposes maybe its time to get rid of them and let private firms do seasonal adjustments.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:05 | 2940469 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Just like the voting system?

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:08 | 2940477 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

or like the rating agencies?

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:12 | 2940490 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Yes like the rating agencies, at least you know what bias you are getting and you can account for the bias.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:29 | 2940521 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Just don't stand to near the pile of bias.....I'm not sure it's all that safe.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:34 | 2940538 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

did you read before pressing the "save" button? a public policy measurement like the Job's numbers or a credit rating are not supposed to have a "bias". You sound like you expect both gov and privates to cheat, everywhere, regardless, with inpunity.

Both governments and corporations are based on a certain amount of trust and goodwill from society.

Hell, the whole King Dollar Fiat Nexus is still based on goodwill vs the US, in the tune of trillions.

You sound like a very, very bad ambassador for the Second American Century.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 09:17 | 2940737 economics9698
economics9698's picture

"You sound like you expect both gov and privates to cheat, everywhere, regardless, with inpunity."

Yes.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 09:34 | 2940794 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I'm not talking about cynicism, I'm talking about basic expectations. and moral ones. I'm not sure I can explain

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:53 | 2941144 Ident 7777 economy
Ident 7777 economy's picture

 

 

 

 

Ghordius:

 

" a public policy measurement like the Job's numbers or a credit rating are not supposed to have a "bias". "

 

Applicable Yogi Berra quote - 

 

" In theorytheory and practice are the same. In practice, they are not. "

 

 


Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:10 | 2940483 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Voting should be private with a paper and electronic fingerprint trail.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:18 | 2940498 pods
pods's picture

Voting should not be nearly as important in the day to day lives of people.

I would also get quite leery of a gigantic database of everyone's fingerprints.

Call me paranoid I guess?

pods

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:23 | 2940506 economics9698
economics9698's picture

So much fraud in American elections, if you got a better way say so.  I agree if we had a federal government that was 10% of the GDP elections would not be that important.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:28 | 2940517 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Please, if voting really made a real difference it would be illegal.  My family is originally from queens (we left a long time ago).  I have some cousins and uncles (once removed) still living there and they could give a shit about anything aside from making repairs and aquiring resources to do so right now.

Same as it ever was, don't sweat it and go be productive.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 09:01 | 2940680 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

your first statement begs for an explaination about the inordinate and increasing amount of money flowing into electoral propaganda

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 09:23 | 2940755 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

What does "electoral propaganda" actually have to do with what happens to your vote or how policies and laws are actually made and enforced again?

Last time I looked their is no fucking connnection.  For example, Obama election propaganda from 2008 clearly pushed an image of greater transparency in government.

How's that going again?

please, wake up.  You are confusing perception (bread and circuses) with what actually happens.


Fri, 11/02/2012 - 11:00 | 2941174 Ident 7777 economy
Ident 7777 economy's picture

 

 

 

pods:

"... I would also get quite leery of a gigantic database of everyone's fingerprints.

Call me paranoid I guess?"

 

 

With the fingerprint database and a high-res 3-D printer ... "What hath man wrought?"

 

 

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:05 | 2940471 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Goona need the sledgehammer for this adjustment.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:36 | 2940560 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"Mayhem will do just fine." You're adjusting to the New Normal people that's all! Move along! Move along!

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:10 | 2940481 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

private firms are running the shitshow.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:12 | 2940489 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Don't forget Joe "Gonna give you the whole load" Biden.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:55 | 2941155 Ident 7777 economy
Ident 7777 economy's picture

 

 

From which pron movie did he lift that line? 

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:13 | 2940492 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

You say that as if this is the first administration to manipulate the jobs number to get re-elected.  New on planet Earth?

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:23 | 2940507 BandGap
BandGap's picture

I think it is naive to believe that the numbers will cease to be manipulated after the election....by either party.

They are just getting into the groove. Any sudden change (adjustment back to "the way things were") will highlight how the government propaganda machine has been working these past fews year, and that won't help their cause regardless of who is in office. They will claim it will "polarize" the transition, should there be one.

Perfect, circular bullshit wagon train. We're over the cliff anyway, no one wants to look down.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:02 | 2940463 AU5K
AU5K's picture

7.5%.  Economy is strong.... LOL.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:05 | 2940470 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

The new normal.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:32 | 2940529 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Before the jobs report I predict a very red day regardless of what it says.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:03 | 2940465 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

but Steve Liesman said it's crazy to believe the conspiracy issues revolving around the numbers.

 

Fuck you Liesman.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:09 | 2940479 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Last spring when the BLS revised numbers for the previous year was turning point.  Since then, the numbers have become decoupled with the data.  We went from a .91 correlation between profit growth and job growth the following 12 months to it not really mattering at all.

If profits no longer matter, and companies accelerate hiring as their profits fall, then we have reached a whole new paradigm.

 

Funny thing is, all those companies going under are not hiring.  So I know something is drastically wrong.

 

Either the jobs data is wrong, or the corporate earnings numbers are wrong.  And will all the accounting gimmicks now employed, it could be both. 

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:23 | 2940504 pods
pods's picture

Most big corporations are merely finance companies that may inadvertently make shit GE,GM).  Add in the large percentage of purely financial companies (paper shuffling skim operations) whose profits come from releasing loan loss reserves and skimming the government when it comes to bonds and you have the situation where we are today.

The whole thing is a joke.  These numbers are used like interest rate adjustments in real time.  Too much funny money into stocks?  Drop a low number and everyone runs to bonds. Equities faltering?  Toss in a high beat and it is risk on.

Wish I didn't have a moral compass, I would just become a banker and take my turn fucking the shit out of the little guy.

pods

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:31 | 2940523 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Wish I didn't have a moral compass, I would just become a banker/pedophile and take my turn fucking the shit out of the world's children."

--------------------------------------------------------------

Fixed.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:10 | 2940482 peekcrackers
peekcrackers's picture

Benny's bond-a-rama  ... New job's cooked up monthly

 

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:10 | 2940485 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

I'll predict +120k through birth/death adjusment

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:26 | 2940514 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I predict unempliyment at 7.5% and 175,000.....all through the birth death. If you're going to lie why not lie big? The sheeple are f@*king stupid.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:34 | 2940540 peekcrackers
peekcrackers's picture

stellar call! Dr !!

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:57 | 2940664 kralizec
kralizec's picture

BLS, birth of a fraud, death of an economy...

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:29 | 2940520 Cosimo de Medici
Cosimo de Medici's picture

They'll be contrite, but not TOO contrite:  7.9%

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:32 | 2940525 Cosimo de Medici
Cosimo de Medici's picture

Note the time and sales.  Bingo!

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:33 | 2940534 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"Hey, man. Hedge Funds are people too. Two's and twenties been tough oh these many years. And if you can't clear 100 million in Stamford...well, you know the deal."

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 08:33 | 2940528 docj
docj's picture

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand...

... the print beats the most optimistic estimate by +20K.

Total. Freaking. Bullshit.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 09:01 | 2940681 Lewshine
Lewshine's picture

As I posted yesterday, since Sandy everything has improved. Not a word on Europe or the fiscal cliff, Stocks up 1.5%, employment has been improved through revision, housing coming back(?), Hussein's second term is a cinch - AND, PRECIOUS METALS ARE GETTING CRUSHED ONCE AGAIN! ITS BEN'S PERFECT WORLD AT THE COST OF ANYTHING LOGICAL AND EVERYTHING REASONABLE.

Any questions from the space wasting masses? ...I didn't think so!!

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 09:25 | 2940771 adsanalytics
adsanalytics's picture

Not a massive surprise given strong JOLTS figures (after the jump) as well as upbeat CB indicators such as Jobs Hard to Get etc. This does not, however, solve the income problem which is growing less than spending - a clearly unsustainable situation.

http://www.adsanalytics.com/dashboard/docs/dashboard.php?treepage=tree_definition_main.php&chart=chart_labor_jolts

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 09:31 | 2940793 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes.  These fuckers apparently forgot that wages matter.

Fri, 11/02/2012 - 10:24 | 2940997 govttrader
govttrader's picture

Its all noise...look at the market's price action...the large leveraged traders don't care!!!

 

http://govttrader.blogspot.com/

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