The 512 Permutating Paths To The White House

Tyler Durden's picture


Tired of pundits with black boxes and book deals telling you the election is a done deal because some statistically-sampling, biased, Garbage In, Garbage Out model "said so" (remember when the same GIGO logic made every structured piece of toxic RMBS toxic be rated AAA simply because the rating agency models couldn't account for the improbable case of real estate prices actually going down?) Then decide for yourselves. With 48 hours left until polls close, below are the 512 permutating paths available to the two candidates on their way to the White House throne (assuming the other states vote the way they are "expected"). And with the election having crossed far beyond mere theatrical tragicomedy and now well into NCAA finals knock out fever, one can see why Florida and Ohio are really all the matter.

Full interactive infographic after the jump

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Sun, 11/04/2012 - 19:07 | 2946966 Ignorance is bliss
Ignorance is bliss's picture

Does it really matter who is President? I think our future as Americans has already been decided. The rest is all about when the shit hits the fan.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 19:12 | 2946977 knukles
knukles's picture

This is the Most Important Election of All Time.

Rhetoric Will Change!


(as in; "Frankly Scarlet, I don't give a damn!"  Actually I do care, I'm tired of the sanctimonious lecturing... let the change begin!)

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 19:34 | 2947017 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

I always enjoyed playing snakes and ladders


Sun, 11/04/2012 - 19:37 | 2947040 knukles
knukles's picture

Go long of Thesauruses 


Sun, 11/04/2012 - 23:35 | 2947700 old naughty
old naughty's picture

What is this? Power of 9 (2 to the 9th =512)?

Long-E-vity (E for election). Will it mean 4+ years for either?

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 20:50 | 2947226 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

I'm highly confident that if the deciding chad comes down to FL once again, our sane, highly intelligent and mentally stable citizenry will make the wise choice.

I believe it was the superworms that did him in.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 21:08 | 2947295 Darth..Putter
Darth..Putter's picture

I'm wondering how much pesticide cockroaches can carry without showing any signs,

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 19:26 | 2947010 diesheepledie
diesheepledie's picture

"When" is important. If it's RMoney, we get a big recession maybe followed by a bounce, and a final bubble of some kind before the collapse and SHTF. If it's ObaMoney, we get the continued malaise followed by social unrest wild-fires, gradual collapse and SHTF.

I am for Romney, since I am associated with a large business, and hope to get lots of corporate welfare to use for prepping. But I am certain it will be Obama. Obama promisses free shit to the sheeple, and the sheeple can't resist free shit.


Sun, 11/04/2012 - 19:47 | 2947065 seek
seek's picture

Fairly sure it determines the name of the party that gets blamed for the collapse. (Or course there's only one actual party , the bankers forever party, but that's a secret.)

Paul offered to take the blame, get it over with, and let them resume the game on the other side, but they couldn't handle giving up any control or potentially have people rediscover what freedom is.

But yes, you are on point. The math has rendered who is President irrelevant.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 20:31 | 2947171 Bear
Bear's picture

The only reason why this election is important is because TSHTF in 2013-2015, and how we are led at that time will determine the future of the nation for 50 years. If you think BHO will best guide us through the collapse, vote for him.

I think if you look at Obama as an extension of Bush (more spending on crap)... I would be looking for someone that might have a different approach or at least has made different promises that he will be accountable for in four years.

Obama has made no promises, except, 'we're recovering (a lie) so trust me' ... he leaves us no hope for any change. I am really concerned that, given not being constrained by another election,

1. He will actively pursue the turnover of National Sovereignty to a global ruling body to 'solve' the problems brought about by the crisis. Remember it only takes the President and the Senate to tie us to international treaties.

2. Eliminate any military readiness by gutting energy to save the green planet and make the public pay 'necessarily high energy prices'

3. Appoint 2-3 Supremes that believe that the Constitution 'should' be changed to 'fit the needs' of the people.

4. Listen to Paul Krugman and the rest of Keynesians and spend a whole lot more money that has negative utility.

5. Reduce our individual liberty in pursuit of an impossible goal of 'equality' of outcomes.

6. Seek to increase the size of the Federal Government employing people that make twice as much as the same people in private industry.

Will Romney be worse?  I'll risk the devil we don't know for four more years of the devil we do know.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 20:33 | 2947193 carambar
carambar's picture

just want to remind you that Romney made a fortune stripping out companies of their employees , cutting all benefits and using boatload of debt to pay himself (Bain Capital).

this is what he did for years. He is a pure product of Wall Street and you claim he has the benefit of the doubt? His backers are the barons that want to stripdown the little guy of any right to let them their business without any constraints (social, environment.....)

you should watch the movie Citizen Kane. this is a good reminder that we already went through these times and that some people want to push us back in these dark ages.


Sun, 11/04/2012 - 20:49 | 2947224 Bear
Bear's picture

All of these things may be true, but at least, the stripping and plunder is on a National level. I am afraid that BHO will tie us to the concept of international 'Social Justice' which will force the US to actively transfer our wealth, not just our income, to nations that have less than we.

I have seen Citizen Kane, and if you don't think that the current administration is ruled by the same people that got us in this mess, think again. If Romney, in his own life, was all for personal increase at the cost of others, Mr. Obama has demonstrated his largess as the cost of the Public Good ... and Romney has not yet demonstrated that. His Massachusetts governorship was not marked by abject disregard for the People ... as, I believe, Obama's has been.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 21:08 | 2947293 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

I love it when try to rationalize their way out of fucked.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 21:24 | 2947335 Bear
Bear's picture

Being fucked is a foregone conclusion ... it's just the choice of who does the fucking. I chose the pro over the amateur

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 00:00 | 2947757 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

There are, how you say, pros and cons to both.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 11:40 | 2948578 Edward Teller
Edward Teller's picture

Right on, Bear. In addition, Romney is a Mormon - they are raised as what I think are now referred to as "preppers" (or something like that). The Mormons in Utah last year passed a Currency Amendment (H.B. 317) which was signed into law allowing the use of U.S. gold and silver coinage as legal tender within the state that provides for "the exchange of gold and silver coins for another form of legal tender does not create any individual income or sales tax liability." In effect, it provides the legal basis for the development of a back-up medium of exchange - something that will be desperately needed and does not exisit today.


When things get desparate, Romney might go along with something like that for the whole country. We may be certain the other guy wouldn't. The above example is but one of many that will reduce the death count, and increases the outside possibility of something that will seemingly provide something of the "old life" that emerges on the other side as this thing works it's way through. Romney is at least a real American and there at least exists the probability that he is far more competent to guide the inevitable collapse than someone who wants it to happen.


Those who sit around claiming it doesn;t make any difference who wins are part of the problem - they are not responsible adults. They have not grasped the reality of what is going on, and how the different scenarios might work themselves out. They don't care about reality.


Google Utah HB317 2011 to read the statute.


Sun, 11/04/2012 - 21:30 | 2947347 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

512 Paths for them, but only 1 path for the middle class no matter who wins.


stupid waste of time doing analysis on this fucking retard fest.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 08:02 | 2948123 neidermeyer
neidermeyer's picture

The presidential choice may not change the eventual outcome but it will mean the difference between us becoming Argentina or Japan.. I'd prefer Japan ... they have wasted their chance to pull out ,, they've had 30 years to make necessary changes and have sat on their hands ... I think we will have the chance and will take it decisively..

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 19:08 | 2946967 guinea
guinea's picture

May GIGO Monte Carlo simulations and the financial hacks who use them and brought us the Great Recession all burn in hell. 

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 19:13 | 2946981 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

FEMA Camps the future of Amerika.

Go Whore House- Go Fucking Amerika


Sun, 11/04/2012 - 19:13 | 2946983 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture
In August and July of 2012, Spain reported two consecutive current account surpluses, the first ever since joining the Euro. Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland erase current account deficits and record surpluses.


Sun, 11/04/2012 - 19:19 | 2946999 tickhound
tickhound's picture

LOL.  The chart looks like chess, bitchez... but its still tic tac toe.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 19:30 | 2947003 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

"We've Heard It All Before" (Extended Cut]



Once this event happens, the screws will be torqued down. I repeat, the screws will be torqued heavily. ;)

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 19:29 | 2947026 Jason T
Jason T's picture

"when you're borrowing money just to pay the interest, you are fuc#ed"


Sun, 11/04/2012 - 19:32 | 2947036 Jason T
Jason T's picture

I was just thinking of that and well, youtube is something else.. found it.. 3:00 to 3:10, there you have it:

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 19:37 | 2947043 Curt W
Curt W's picture

It seems the only way to win is not to play

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 19:45 | 2947058 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Great possibility this election gets tossed to the house with Obama having a majority, but a republican house votes for Romney. This could produce some real division, riots and mayhem. Almost seems planned... maybe they are bringing home the troops for after the election? 

All over an election that firmly establishes the status quo. 

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 19:49 | 2947066 Matt
Matt's picture

This doesn't seem to take into account outcomes like "no election" or "election abnormalities on the east coast". 

If you go with Romney Florida, Obama Ohio, it looks like 10:1 odds Obama.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 22:11 | 2947460 socalbeach
socalbeach's picture

Nate Silver correctly predicted 49/50 states in the 2008 pres election and all 35 Senate seats.  His reasoning is very logical and mathematical so I'll go with his numbers.

According to him, Romney has a 14.5% chance of winning, about the same odds as rolling a pair of dice and having the sum of the two dice coming up 6.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 19:51 | 2947071 Publicus
Publicus's picture

Both are the same. There is no choice in this election.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 20:43 | 2947221 RmcAZ
RmcAZ's picture

But, there is a choice to vote third party and begin moving things in a new direction.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 21:07 | 2947290 Angry White Dude
Angry White Dude's picture

April 1st is a long way off.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 21:44 | 2947388 jamezelle
jamezelle's picture

"Both are the same. There is no choice in any election."




Sun, 11/04/2012 - 20:13 | 2947125 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Romney will win the popular vote but will lose the electoral college... just watch.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 20:30 | 2947184 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That's my prediction. Obama will be seen as another illegitimate president and people will lose more faith in the system. The country will be even more divided. Obama , being the narcacist that he is, will be pissed because over half the country rejected him . The next few years are going to be ugly. This is all going as planned as Americans lose more faith in the countries institutions and collapses in on itself.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 20:38 | 2947208 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Yep. And then Obama will replace 3 SCOTUS judges, giving the statists a majority for at least a decade, if not more... and at some point, they will do a ruling that will cross the line and SHTF.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 21:05 | 2947284 rhinoblitzing
rhinoblitzing's picture

To Paraphrase: "Illigitimate - people losing faith - more divisiveness"

If Obama wins... He will be IMPEACHED... SUCCESSFULLY in short order along with some of his friends. The best we can hope for is that he loses and he leaves quietly, and then he can become em-poorer of the UN or something. But he might have to fight Hillary for that  job too.

Either way - we will have the same end... results - we all lose.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 21:21 | 2947327 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

He will never be impeached. The minorities would see that as white America persecuting a black man. It will never happen.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 23:39 | 2947710 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Uh-huh. When it happened to Bush he was so illiegitmate....he won again in 2004!  Obama ain't been great....but he's gonna have to work awfully hard to f-up the world more than Bush did. 

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 20:16 | 2947142 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

Leaving PA out was a mistake. Pundits make too many assumptions.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 21:17 | 2947319 Bear
Bear's picture

Well it's the NY Times doing the analysis ... if PA goes for Romney, it's all over anyway and we have a new Administration. They also didn't include CA.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 20:22 | 2947162 TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

Anyone care to donate to my winter 2013 Swiss ski fund (I take most currencies!)? I am having New World Order mid life crisis.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 20:29 | 2947182 Heart of Gold
Heart of Gold's picture

BTW, an electoral college tie would likely result in a Romney-Biden administration (says this at the bottom of the graphic). I'm sure a divided presidential administration will help with the fiscal stability that S&P is looking for, lol!

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 20:42 | 2947216 Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

There would probably be some sort of deal cut to give a Democrat some position of power in the Cabinet in exchange for votes for Ryan as VP.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 08:23 | 2948143 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Not a chance as toxic as the senate is right now with Reid at the helm. IMO the senate chooses Reid as the VP just as a fuck you to Romney. They can after all choose whomever they want.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 20:34 | 2947197 Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

This ignores the proportional allocation of electors in Maine and Nebraska, and the possibility of faithless electors.

It would be fun to see the lobbying that would go on in the event of an electoral tie, or separation by just 2 votes.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 20:43 | 2947220 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

I voted for Ron Paul four years ago, and I just voted for him again.

No, I'm not insane.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 21:56 | 2947434 Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

That was literally a wasted vote.  Unless he declares himself a write-in candidate in your state (which he did not do in any state), your vote will not even be counted.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 22:47 | 2947588 Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

Thank you for the correction!

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