Israeli War Game Does Not See Attack Of Iran Starting World War III

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It would appear, based on the latest war games from Israel's Institute of National Security Studies, that we should all go back to sleep and not worry about the impact of an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear infrastructure. The reason not to worry is simple - either it ignites World War III (which we presume means it will be all over very rapidly and we will be blissfully unaware until its too late to be capable of achieving anything) or - as they suspect (and gamed out) - there will be a focus on 'containment and restraint' with Iran unable to ignite the Middle East. The result is predicated on 'actors' motivated by rational considerations; which seems entirely irrational. All the gory details below...

War Game: The Hours following an Attack on Iran’s Nuclear Infrastructures

The Policies of the Actors and Principal Insights

The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) held a war game (simulation) focusing on the first 48 hours after an Israeli aerial attack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructures.

The Scenario

After midnight on November 9, al-Jazeera reports that Israeli airplanes have attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities in three waves of attack. As reports multiply, Israel officially announces it has attacked Iran’s nuclear sites because it had no other choice. According to the scenario, Israel did not coordinate the attack with the United States in advance, and only informed the US once the planes were already en route to the Iranian targets. Initial assessments estimate that the Iranian nuclear program has been set back by nearly three years.

Following the successful attack, Iran decides to react with maximal force, launching  radical elements – to attack Israel. Nonetheless, it is careful to avoid attacking American targets. Israel attempts to contain the attacks and works to attain a state of calm as rapidly as possible. The international community is paralyzed, largely because Russia tries to exploit the situation for its own strategic objectives. At the end of the first 48 hours, Iran continues to attack Israel, as do their proxies, albeit to a lesser extent. At this point in the simulation, the crisis does not seem to be close to a resolution.

Main Policies of the Various Actors

Israel: After achieving its operational goals, Israel showed restraint in the face of provocations and reactions by the radical players spurred by Iran. In parallel, Israel conducted an additional aerial attack to complete destruction of one of the major targets in Iran. Israel’s strategic objective focused on preventing regional escalation and achieving as fast as possible a level of events that was controllable and of low intensity.

 

The United States: Although not informed before the event, the United States clearly stood by Israel’s side and did not expose its differences of opinion with Israel, in order to present a united front against any possible regional escalation. The United States demonstrated willingness to return to the negotiating table and even relax the sanctions, provided Iran showed restraint and in exchange for an Iranian declaration it was ending its military nuclear program. The United States decided it would take military action against Iran only if Iran were to close to the Strait of Hormuz or attack American allies and assets in the Gulf. Similarly, the United States activated economic measures to control the rise in oil prices.

 

Iran: In light of the outcome of the Israeli attack, Iran felt it had no choice but to react strongly and militarily against Israel, launching some 100 Shehab missiles right away (and another 100 in round two) at Tel Aviv, the Negev Nuclear Research Center in Dimona, and various cities. Iran also pressured its proxies to act against Israel and launch rocket and missiles at Israeli targets, as well as engage in multi-front acts of terrorism. At the same time, Iran appealed to the international community to grant legitimacy to its enrichment program and revoke the sanctions against it. At first, Iran chose not to attack American targets and assets to keep the United States from joining the fight against it. But the more Iran felt it was cornered and its freedom of action was curtailed, it realized that its strongest card lay in acting against America’s allies in the Gulf and closing the Strait of Hormuz.

 

Russia chose to promote its objectives in the Caucasus and Europe. Russia also viewed the attack as an opportunity to position itself as the leading actor in the international community because of its ability to communicate with all the actors involved. However, the gap between the US and the Russian positions led to a paralysis of the international community’s ability to act. In turn, and in the absence of American leadership, China, with access to all the relevant actors, became a key player on the international field. Syria preferred to focus on its domestic upheaval, maintain a low profile, and not be dragged into combat against Israel.

 

Hizbollah found itself in a quandary. On the one hand, Hizbollah came under heavy Iranian pressure to begin a massive launch of missiles and rockets at Israel, this being the “day of reckoning” for which Iran had furnished Hizbollah with 50,000 missiles and rockets. On the other hand, Hizbollah was wary about causing heavy damage in Lebanon yet again. It therefore chose to respond to Iran’s demands selectively by launching rockets at Israeli military targets, especially airfields and active anti-missile defense systems. Israel’s restrained response intensified Hizbollah’s dilemma and supported its decision to attack to a relatively limited degree and focus on military targets.

 

Hamas chose to walk a fine line by demonstrating some commitment towards Iran, while making sure not to provide Israel with an excuse for a large scale attack in the Gaza Strip. Hamas’ limited ability to control rogue and radical elements in Gaza was evident, and Hamas was forced to ask the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt for help in restraining the  rogue elements it lacked the power to control. The other actors – Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, Turkey, and the international community: Each chose to operate on the basis of its own particular interests, distance itself from the events, and prevent widespread regional escalation.

Insights from the War Game

a. The war game staged the first 48 hours after the attack. The intention was not to predict developments, rather to examine the significance and implications of one possible scenario. The players acted very rationally, demonstrating preventive policies and motivated by crucial interests alone, and ignored domestic and external constraints.

 

b. The Israeli actor assessed that the Israeli public possesses the stamina and fortitude to absorb the blows because it was convinced that for Israel, this was a war of no choice that had achieved is operational goals. The policy of restraint was based primarily on this assumption.

 

c. Iran has only limited tools and a limited ability to hit Israel directly, and therefore must operate its proxies against it. Iran has tools that are more relevant in the Persian Gulf sector, capable of hurting American interests and causing global oil prices to spike. Nonetheless, Iran clearly understood the cost it would have to pay should it ignite the Persian Gulf, especially the United States joining the fighting. This would only incur greater damage to its nuclear infrastructures and greater destruction to a wide array of quality targets in Iran.

 

d. A successful Israeli attack with clear cut results and the meeting of the operational objectives would lead to two contradictory trends: on the one hand, Iran would be obligated to respond militarily and via its proxies; on the other hand its dependence on proxies would allow deterrence of the relevant actors and insertion of a wedge between Iran and its regional allies, thereby preventing regional escalation and encouraging containment.

 

e. Two other important elements likely to help contain the events are America’s clear resolve to stand with Israel and a restrained policy on Israel’s part, especially if the strategic objectives of the attack were met in the initial attack.

 

f. The simulation again raised the disadvantage of having no access to Iran's Supreme Leader and the limited levers of influence. In general, it became clear that there are no reliable lines of communication with the Iranian leadership. While Russia cannot serve as a credible channel for dialogue, it emerged that China may be capable of serving as a mediator.

 

g. In planning the exit strategy and a mechanism to contain and mitigate negative developments, Israel cannot rely on the international community. It is highly probable that the deepening of the divide between the United States and Russia would paralyze the international community. Some of the players on the international arena would like to see Israel "bleed" in order to pay for attacking Iran, regardless of the interests of others, and to restrain its actions in the future. If the crisis were prolonged, it could generate unintended consequences with the risk of regional escalation. Efforts by regional and international elements to end the event may involve a cost to Israel in the area of arms control.

Conclusion

When the simulation was planned, it appeared that the fall of 2012 would be a critical period, and therefore it was decided to examine the possible developments subsequent to an Israeli attack. This sense of an imminent decision has since abated somewhat, but after the US and Israeli elections, the question of an attack will undoubtedly resurface. It is therefore critical to continue to examine the potential ramifications of an attack.

The scenario of an Israeli attack immediately after the US elections does not reflect the position of the Institute for National Security Studies. The possibility of an Israeli attack at any time is complex and has been analyzed in many INSS publications. Overall, there are two opposing assessments of the implications of an Israeli attack.

  1. One anticipates the outbreak of World War III, while
  2. the other envisions containment and restraint, and presumes that in practice, Iran’s capabilities to ignite the Middle East are limited.

The war game that took place developed in the direction of containment and restraint, with the actors motivated mainly by rational considerations and critical interests.

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Sun, 11/04/2012 - 21:36 | 2947351 lolmao500
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And they don't talk about casualties at all... nor what price oil would be at, nor what it would do to populations in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan... nor what it would do to the world economy... nor the effects of bombing A FUCKING NUCLEAR POWER PLANT, etc...

Basically their scenario is best-best-best-best-no-chances-of-happening-scenario.

It's not a real scenario, it's a propaganda scenario to make people support a war on Iran.

It's of the same BS level as when Bibi said this a week ago :

An Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities won’t destabilize the Middle East, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an interview to a French magazine on Tuesday, adding, moreover, that such a move would only serve to restore security in the region.

Here's a more realistic scenario :

New Scientific Study Predicts 85,000 Casualties, “Devastating Consequences” for Iran Attack
Sun, 11/04/2012 - 21:36 | 2947363 john39
john39's picture

Netanyahu said that Iraqis would welcome NATO troops as liberators... And we all know how that turned out.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 21:51 | 2947415 Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

And if these morons are wrong, and world war 3 does start, do we get to execute the authors?  If not, then they can go to hell for their reckless endangerment of humankind. Survivable nuclear war, sure, if you ignore the effects on the biosphere. Fucking Lunatics.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 21:56 | 2947433 TruthInSunshine
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If I ever get off to a bad start or my mission goes awry, I simply start over because Gears Of War is awesome like that.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 22:04 | 2947455 LetThemEatRand
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The good news is that if Israel attacks Iran, it will push U.S. debacle Iraq off the list as top country in the world on the list of population living below the povery line.  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-04/more-greeks-live-poverty-iranians.  They hate us for our freedoms.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 22:08 | 2947465 markmotive
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The Soviets never thought placing nuclear missiles in Cuba would trigger nuclear armaggeddon. But few realize how close we were to complete destruction of the human race.

http://www.planbeconomics.com/2012/11/03/must-read-vasili-arkhipov-the-m...

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 22:28 | 2947489 Precious
Precious's picture

"Iranian War Game Does Not See Israel On Any Map."

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 03:12 | 2947956 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

It'll all be over with by Christmas...

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 08:14 | 2948136 francis_sawyer
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We zip in ~ we zip out... It's like going in to Wisconsin...

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 09:35 | 2948256 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

Thinking this might be a tragic miscalculation: http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2012/10/some-apocalyptic-ranting.ht...

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 10:53 | 2948477 OpenEyes
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Lighten up Francis

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 05:48 | 2948033 monkeyboy
monkeyboy's picture

"Iranian War Game Does Not See Israel On Any Map."

 

I'd be interested to see how that game plays out.......

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 22:20 | 2947499 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

Yeah, so I guess it's really too bad Israel has placed nukes in numerous  Ameircan cities, and how close America is to being done dirty by our "closest ally" prior to their framing some poor Islamic patsy state for destroying our country.

I mean worse than they already have.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 22:33 | 2947546 Seize Mars
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Uhh?

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 22:43 | 2947578 Michaelwiseguy
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I had a vision of the place called Dimona. It was bombed from all directions for three days and nights.

No one lived within 100 miles of the place for the next 100 years.

I feel nothing about that situation. 

 

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 22:50 | 2947596 ACP
ACP's picture

Of course, Israel could do something a little more low-key, like pull a Dr. Gerald Bull.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 23:25 | 2947674 TwoShortPlanks
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ORRRRRRR....it ignites anti-Semitism worldwide.

We saw the public reaction to Israel's attack on the supply ships a few years back, they looked like war-mongering wankers.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 00:25 | 2947804 old naughty
old naughty's picture

"...the Iranian nuclear program has been set back by nearly three years."

Hardly rational.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 00:33 | 2947817 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

That's the only way those 1000 years wars over this hellhole of a place ends peacefully. Dimona going all Chernobyl on their asses.

All you retards fight for that hellhole for the last 1000 years?? None of you deserves it... let's make it radioactive till the Sun eats the Earth.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 22:50 | 2947592 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Done dirty...done dirty...oh yeah!...Rev Wrights's ridin dirty!...totally different thing, sorry.

And these Israeli nukes would be in what American cities...exactly?

I love the smell of dementia in the morning ;-)

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 00:53 | 2947847 knukles
knukles's picture

Yeah, what would Rev. WEright, Beyoncee and Jay-Z have to say about all this?

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 04:05 | 2947979 vato poco
vato poco's picture

And you know this presumably highly secret 'False-flag nukes in US cities' info......how, exactly, ABR? Did they send you a memo?

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 01:05 | 2947861 dbomb12
dbomb12's picture

And that is why the Govt is building underground bunkers with our tax money so when the SHTF they will go underground and "E plebnista"   will get the shaft as usual

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 01:11 | 2947865 CrockettAlmanac.com
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That is Yang worship word!

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 05:46 | 2948031 monkeyboy
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 They hate us for our freedoms.

 

Nah they you hate for your nukes.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 22:08 | 2947459 markmotive
markmotive's picture

Yeah and nobody thought CDS's would be a problem too.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 22:08 | 2947469 ACP
ACP's picture

Does it have a "God" mode like the old Doom?

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 08:51 | 2948169 johnnymustardseed
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Are we certain that these authors are not Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfield?? And yes they are morons.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 22:08 | 2947463 Cortez the Killer
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does anyone really doubt that Israel will use its nukes one day to incinerate the muslim world?

john 15:13

 

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 22:09 | 2947468 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

you are a fucking idiot

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 22:24 | 2947513 ArrestBobRubin
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I see.... Have you really thought through that particular brainstorm?

Does Israel just walk into a bright shiny future after this act? How does your fairytale end?

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 22:37 | 2947557 LetThemEatRand
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No brain.  Just storm.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 22:43 | 2947576 Cortez the Killer
Cortez the Killer's picture

with more violence of course. retaliations, more attacks.

but eventually a calm will settle in. detente will prevail.

Israel, if it still exists, will be isolated.

but 100 years later, the world will raise glasses and toast the brilliant stroke that eliminated the 7th century scourge

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 03:28 | 2947968 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

so, eventually, after 100 years, everything will be alright.

Cool...

Do you see any flaw here, by any chance?

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 09:32 | 2948247 AnAnonymous
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but 100 years later, the world will raise glasses and toast the brilliant stroke that eliminated the 7th century scourge
_______________________

Any prophecy about the elimination of the 18th century scourge?

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 10:50 | 2948463 The Unabonger
The Unabonger's picture

Does anyone doubt that the Final Solution will eventually be embraced as a neccecity for human survival and completed?

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 22:36 | 2947548 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

black dots = us military bases:

http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/7366/screenshot12ad.jpg

 

 

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 22:58 | 2947609 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Jesus Christ! I bet those black dots cost us taxpayers a shitload of money! Isn't empire fun? Oh, I forgot, these are self defense bases.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 07:58 | 2948122 Half_A_Billion_...
Half_A_Billion_Hollow_Points's picture

China starts the Tbill dump the minute jets start flying.  Dollar going to skydive bitches!

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 05:51 | 2948037 monkeyboy
monkeyboy's picture

Really could do with moar black dots.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 10:56 | 2948488 OpenEyes
OpenEyes's picture

I would love to see a map showing all of the Iranian military bases in countries bordering the US.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 21:38 | 2947368 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

In other geopolitics news...

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/world/middleeast/erdogan-says-talks-ar...

Turkish Leader Says He Plans a Trip to Gaza Soon

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey said on Friday that he planned to visit the Gaza Strip soon, a move that would significantly enhance the legitimacy of the Hamas-controlled Gaza government and antagonize the Palestinian Authority, Israel and the West.

Erdogan is pissed that NATO didn't attack Syria for him??

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 22:02 | 2947442 monkeyboy
monkeyboy's picture

This is the REAL 9/11 !!!

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 22:53 | 2947602 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

No.

It's 11/12.

Odd time signature.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 04:17 | 2947988 Rogue Trooper
Rogue Trooper's picture

NOOOOOOO!

It will be 911 times 2356!

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 09:55 | 2948306 exi1ed0ne
exi1ed0ne's picture

Not really.  Only 1.22ish times as much.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 22:04 | 2947453 GAAPpreNixon
GAAPpreNixon's picture

Correct. The proper conclusion to be drawn from any war game is that WAR IS NOT A GAME! 

 

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 22:09 | 2947470 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

Brilliant. WAR IS NOT A GAME!!

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 22:20 | 2947501 Pink Floyd
Pink Floyd's picture

This "war game" neglects to account for the price of not stopping Iran as well.

If WWIII is imminent, it is not due to Israel attacking Iran's nuclear facilities. (Come on).

An Israel attack on the Iran can at most trigger the keg, not create it.

 

 

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 01:43 | 2947899 SWIFT 760
SWIFT 760's picture

SSDD. Typical zio-jew shifting blame onto the victim. 

Where's your proof Iran has nuke weapon grade material? 

Typical zio-jew to hijack and shit all over musical great such as Pink Floyd. 

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